moody's 2013 investor presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Investor Presentation2Q 2013
AUGUST 6, 2013
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2AUGUST 6, 2013
Safe Harbor
Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements and are based on future expectations, plans and prospects
forMoodys business and operations that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Moodys outlook for 2013 and other forward-lookingstatements in this presentation are made as of July 24, 2013, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such
statements on a going-forward basis, whether as a result of subsequent developments, changed expectations or otherwise. In connection
with the safeharbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Company is identifying certain factors that could
cause actual results to differ, perhaps materially, from those indicated by these forward-looking statements. Those factors, risks and
uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the current world-wide credit market disruptions and economic slowdown, which is affecting and
could continue to affect the volume of debt and other securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets; other matters that could
affect the volume of debt and other securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets, including credit quality concerns, changes in
interest rates and other volatility in the financial markets; the uncertain effectiveness and possible collateral consequences of U.S. and foreign
government initiatives to respond to the economic slowdown; concerns in the marketplace affecting our credibility or otherwise affectingmarket perceptions of the integrity or utility of independent agency ratings; the introduction of competing products or technologies by other
companies; pricing pressure from competitors and/or customers; the impact of regulation as an NRSRO, the potential for new U.S., state and
local legislation and regulations, including provisions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and anticipated
regulations resulting from the law; the potential for increased competition and regulation in the EU and other foreign jurisdictions; exposure to
litigation related to our rating opinions, as well as any other litigation to which the Company may be subject from time to time; provisions in
the Dodd-Frank Act legislation modifying the pleading standards, and EU regulations modifying the liability standards, applicable to credit
rating agencies in a manner adverse to rating agencies; provisions of EU regulations imposing additional procedural and substantive
requirements on the pricing of services; the possible loss of key employees; failures or malfunctions of our operations and infrastructure; any
vulnerabilities to cyber threats or other cybersecurity concerns; the outcome of any review by controlling tax authorities of the Companysglobal tax planning initiatives; the outcome of those legacy tax matters and legal contingencies that relate to the Company, its predecessors
and their affiliated companies for which Moodys has assumed portions of the financial responsibility; the ability of the Company to successfully
integrate acquired businesses; currency and foreign exchange volatility; a decline in the demand for credit risk management tools by financial
institutions; and other risk factors as discussed in the Companys annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 and in
other filings made by the Company from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction2. Macroeconomic Environment
3. Financial Overview
4. Moodys Investors Service (MIS)
5. Moodys Analytics (MA)
6. Conclusion
7. Appendix
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Introduction
1
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5
*TTM as of June 30, 2013. Represents consolidated financials excluding intersegment royalty and eliminations.
Overview of Moodys Corporation
$2,05170%
$87930%
MoodysTTM Revenue: $2.9 billion*
Leading global provider of credit rating opinions, insight and
tools for financial risk measurement and management
Research, data and software for financial riskanalysis and related professional services
Independent provider of credit rating opinionsand related information for over 100 years
($ millions)
Introduction | Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Macroeconomic Environment
2
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Despite Recent Rate Move Upward, All-in Financing CostsAre Still Historically Low
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jul-80 Jul-83 Jul-86 Jul-89 Jul-92 Jul-95 Jul-98 Jul-01 Jul-04 Jul-07 Jul-10 Jul-13
10-yr US Treasury Yield: % (L)Global IG Corporate Yield: % (L)
Global HY Corporate Yield: % (R)
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Source: US Federal Reserve, Barclays and Moodys Capital Markets Research Group.
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Despite a Sustained Period of Low Interest Rates,Average Years to Maturity Has Increased By Less Than aYear
*Year-to-date through July 2013.Source: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic.
6.5 6.5 6.7 6.67.0
7.3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD2013*
Average Years To Maturity: Global Corporate Issues
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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$0
$50
$100
$150
$200$250
2014 2015 2016 2017
$Billions
Debt Maturities: U.S. Moodys-RatedCorporate Bonds and Loans
Investment-Grade BondsSpeculative-Grade BondsSpeculative-Grade Bank Loans
Source: Moodys Investors Service, February 2013.
Non-Financial Corporates Still Have Significant RefundingNeeds, Especially in 2016 and 2017
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200$250
2014 2015 2016 2017
$Billions
Debt Maturities: EMEA Moodys-RatedCorporate Bonds and Loans
Investment-Grade BondsSpeculative-Grade BondsSpeculative-Grade Bank Loans
Source: Moodys Investors Service, July 2013.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2014 2015 2016
$Billions
Debt Maturities: Asia Pacific Moodys-RatedCorporate Bonds and Loans
Investment-Grade Bonds Speculative-Grade Bonds
Sources: Moodys Investors Service and Bloomberg, February 2013.
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Per Barclays, outstanding debt levels
indicate record USD debt maturities over the
next 10 years:
$1.5 trillion of non-financial corporate
investment grade bonds
$1.1 trillion of speculative grade bonds
Source: Barclays, July 31, 2013.
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M&A, Equity Buybacks and Capital Expenditures CanDrive Issuance
Source: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group. U.S. M&A Volume and USD Bond Issuance as of 6/30/13. U.S. CapEx and U.S. Stock Buybacks as of 3/31/13.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
$Billions
U.S. M&A Volume and Bond IssuanceU.S. M&A Volume, TTM (L) USD Bond Issuance, TTM (R)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
$Billions
U.S. Stock Buybacks and Bond IssuanceNet Equity Buybacks: U.S. Non-Financial Firms, TTM (L)
USD Bond Issuance, TTM (R)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
$Billio
ns
U.S. CapEx and Bond IssuanceCapEx: Business Investment in Equipment & Software,annualized, seasonally-adjusted (L)USD Bond Issuance, TTM (R)
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Emerging Markets Have Rapidly Expanding BondIssuance
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13
$Billions
Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Rated Issuance*
*Moving 12 month sum; includes rated investment grade and high yield corporate bond issuance (financial and non-financial).Sources: Dealogic, Moodys Capital Markets Research Group.
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Europe*** United States
$
Billions
Bonds Bank Loans**
20%$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$Billions
Bonds* (L) Bank Loans** (R)
European Capital Markets Have Room For Growth
January 2000 - May 2013 CAGR: Bonds: 16%, Loans: 4%
Historically, European companies have relied more on banks than their American counterparts
Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, Barcap Indices, Moodys Capital Markets Research Group. Data as of May 31, 2013.*Includes Investment Grade and High Yield euro and sterling denominated debt.**Includes Eurozone and UK bank loans.***European bond data represents euro and sterling denominated debt. European loan data represents Eurozone and UK bank loans.
80%48%
52%
(as of May 31, 2013)
European Non-FinancialCorporate Bank Loans vs. Bonds
European and U.S. Non-Financial CorporateBank Loans and Bonds
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Newly Rated Corporate Issuers Have Been AccessingGlobal Bond Markets
Source: Moodys Investors Service.*Rated by Moodys Investors Service. **YTD 2013 data as of July 26, 2013.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
2013**
Annual Count of Newly Rated Non-Financial Corporate Issuers*
Europe U.S. Emerging Markets (ex-Europe) Rest of World
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Majority of first time ratings are from speculative grade issuers
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Historically, Rising Interest Rates Have Not Had aSignificant Impact on Moodys Revenue
8.1%
6.7% 6.7%5.8%
7.8%
5.6%6.4%
5.7%
4.6%
6.4%
5.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
$Millions
Revenue (L) U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield: % (R)
Source: Bloomberg
Following interest rate increases in the period from 1993 to 1994, revenue was down slightly in 1994
Moodys still experienced solid growth amidst rising rates during the period from 1998 to 2000
Moody's is now more diversified both geographically and in terms of the type of entities rated than it was in the early 1990s
when U.S. public finance comprised the largest portion of the MIS business
Moodys Analytics research business, now a larger part of Moodys business and supplemented by enterprise risk
solutions and professional services, is less correlated with interest rates
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Moodys Revenue Does Not Directly Tie to Issuance
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
1Q'08
2Q'08
3Q'08
4Q'08
1Q'09
2Q'09
3Q'09
4Q'09
1Q'10
2Q'10
3Q'10
4Q'10
1Q'11
2Q'11
3Q'11
4Q'11
1Q'12
2Q'12
3Q'12
4Q'12
1Q'13
2Q'13
Revenue$Millions
Issuance
$Billions
MCO Revenue vs. Issuance By Quarter
Issuance* MCO Revenue
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
*Global investment grade bonds, global high yield bonds, U.S. high yield bank loans, global structured finance, and U.S. municipal issuance.Source: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, AB Alert, CM Alert, Bond Buyer. U.S. High Yield Bank Loans represent Moodys rated new U.S. bank loan programs.Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moodys revenue categorizations.
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Financial Overview
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CorporateFinance
35%
StructuredFinance
13%
FinancialInstitutions
11%
Public, Project& Infrastructure
12%
Research, Data& Analytics
17%
Enterprise RiskSolutions
8%
ProfessionalServices
4%
48%35%
79%
52%65%
21%
MCO MIS MA
Transaction
Recurring
Breadth of Moodys Businesses and Global FootprintProvide Diversification
United States54%
EMEA29%
OtherInternational
17%
2Q 2013 REVENUE BY BUSINESS 2Q 2013 REVENUE BY GEOGRAPHY
2Q 2013 REVENUE BY TYPE TRANSACTION AND RECURRING REVENUE
Moodys Investors Service
Transaction revenue recognized when rating published
Recurring revenue recognized ratably over security life
Moodys Analytics
Transaction revenue recognized when service rendered
Recurring revenue recognized ratably over contractperiod
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Moodys has Delivered Strong Revenue* Performance
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.**Guidance as of July 24, 2013.
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
$3,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F**
Revenuein$M
illions
Corporate Finance Structured Finance Financial Institutions PPIF Moody's Analytics
2013 Revenue GuidanceRange**:
high-single-digit %
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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We Expect Margin Expansion and Double-Digit EPSGrowth Again in 2013*
42.6%
38.3% 38.0%39.0% 39.5%
41.0%to42.0%
46.8%
42.8%41.3%
42.4% 43.3%
44.0%to
45.0%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*
Operating Margin Adj. Operating Margin**
Margin Performance
$1.87$1.69
$2.15
$2.49
$3.05
$3.49to
$3.59
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*
EPS
EPS Growth
Margin expansion for 2013is expected to be between
150 and 250 bps
*Guidance as of July 24, 2013. Operating Margin and Adjusted Operating Margin include the Q1 2013 litigation settlement charge. Non-GAAP FY 2013 EPS guidance rangeexcludes the Q1 2013 litigation settlement charge of $0.14 per share. See Appendix for reconciliation of 2013 forecasted Non-GAAP EPS to forecasted GAAP EPS.**See Appendix for reconciliation of Operating Margin to Adjusted Operating Margin.
Excludes litigationsettlement charge
Includes litigationsettlement charge
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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*Guidance as of July 24, 2013.** See Appendix for reconciliation of Cash Flow from Operations to Free Cash Flow.
Moodys has Strong Cash Flow Generation and ModestCapital Expenditures
$455
$553$574
$736$778
~$850
$84 $91 $79 $68 $45 ~ $500%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*
$Millions
Free Cash Flow (L)** Capital Expenditures (L) Capex as a % of Revenue (R)
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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$593
$224
$334
$197
$1,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
$Millions
We Strive for a Balanced Approach to Return of Capitalthrough Share Repurchases and Dividends
Share Repurchases
As of July 24, 2013, share repurchases nowanticipated to total $1 billion in FY 2013
$1.3 billion of share repurchase authority
remaining as of June 30, 2013
$0.40 $0.40 $0.42
$0.54
$0.64
$0.40
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
Dividends
Annualized dividend increased by 25% on July24, 2013 to $1.00 per share
Yield as of August 5, 2013 is 1.44%
* Guidance as of July 24, 2013.** Subject to market conditions and other ongoing capital allocation decisions.
*,**
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$1.8$1.6
$0.4 ($0.4)($0.1) ($0.0) ($0.0)
-$2.0
-$1.5
-$1.0
-$0.5
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Cash Balance asof 12/31/12
Cash Flow fromOperations
ShareRepurchases
Dividends Capex Other Cash Balance asof 6/30/13
Debt Outstandingas of 6/30/13
$Billions
Strong Cash Flow Supports a Healthy Balance Sheet
As of June 30, 2013 MCO Debt/EBITDA was approximately1.3x
$1 billion undrawn credit facility
Well within investment-grade credit rating (BBB+ from S&P) and debt covenant requirements
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
50%
50%
39%
61%
$1.6
U.S. Non-U.S Source of Cash Use of Cash
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Mix of Secular and Cyclical Trends Continue to ProvideMoodys with Robust Long-Term Opportunities forGrowth
Text Here
~2-4%
Debt marketissuance driven byglobal GDP growth
~2-3% ~2-3% ~4%
Disintermediationof credit markets inboth developed andemergingeconomies drivingboth issuance and
demand for newproducts andservices
Growth in MoodysAnalytics driven byfurther penetrationof MAs client baseand expansion ofbank and insurance
regulatoryrequirements
Pricing initiativesaligned with value
Revenue Growth Opportunity: Low-Double-Digit % (on average)
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Full-Year 2013 Guidance as of July 24, 2013
Revenue: high-single-digit % range
Operating Expenses: mid-single-digit % range, includes 1Q litigationsettlement charge
Operating Margin: 41% to 42%, includes 1Q litigation settlement charge
Adjusted Operating Margin*: 44% to 45%, includes 1Q litigation settlement charge
Effective Tax Rate: Approximately 32%
Earnings Per Share**: $3.49 - $3.59, excludes 1Q litigation settlement charge
Share Repurchases: Approximately $1 billion (subject to available
cash, market conditions, and other ongoing
capital allocation decisions)
Capital Expenditures: Approximately $50 million
Depreciation & Amortization: Approximately $100 million
Incremental Compliance & Regulatory Expenses: Approximately $10 million to $15 million
Free Cash Flow***: Approximately $850 million
*See Appendix for reconciliation of Operating Margin to Adjusted Operating Margin.** See Appendix for reconciliation of 2013 forecasted Non-GAAP EPS to forecasted GAAP EPS.***See Appendix for reconciliation of Cash Flow from Operations to Free Cash Flow.
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Moodys Investors Service
4
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$Millions
Corporate Finance Financial Institutions Public, Project, Infrastructure Structured Finance
Moodys Investors Service Financial Profile2Q13 Revenue: $537 million*
Revenue History*,**
63% recurring revenue
25% recurring revenue
35% recurring revenue
39% recurring revenue
17%
16%
StructuredFinance,
18%
CorporateFinance,
49%
Public, Project,& Infrastructure
Finance,
FinancialInstitutions,
35%
65%
Transaction Recurring
58%
42%
U.S. Non-U.S.
*Excludes intersegment royalty revenues.** Prior to 2008, data excludes MIS research revenue. 2004 2008 line of business data has been adjusted to conform with current information.
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
$Billions
Issuance By Quarter*
USD Investment Grade Bond Issuance (L) USD High Yield Bond Issuance (L)
U.S. Speculative Grade Bank Loan Origination (L) U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield: %** (R)
U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Yield: %** (R)
After June Swoon Corporate Bond Issuance Increasedin July, Especially in Investment Grade
*Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moodys revenue categorization. Historical bond issuance data is sourced from Dealogic and Moodys Capital Markets ResearchGroup.**Yield data is sourced from Barclays Capital and Moodys Capital Markets Research Group. % yield on last day of each respect ive time period.
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
April
2013
May
2013
June
2013
July
2013
$Billions
Issuance By Month*
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-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
2011 2012 1Q13 2Q13
U.S. Non-U.S.
However, our Structured Finance Ratings BusinessRemains a Tale of Two Regions
Structured Finance Ratings Revenue by Geography YOY % Change
In 2Q13, U.S. structured finance revenue increased 29 % year-over-year, due to strength in issuance
of commercial mortgage-backed securities
Non-U.S. structured finance revenue was down 17% against the prior-year period, primarily reflecting
weaker issuance volumes in European residential mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities
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MIS Full-Year 2013 Revenue Guidance as of July 24, 2013
Global: high-single-digit % range
U.S.: high-single-digit % range
Non-U.S.: high-single-digit % range
Corporate Finance: low-teens % range
Structured Finance: low-single-digit % range
Financial Institutions: low-single-digit % range
Public, Project & Infrastructure: low-double-digit % range
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Moodys Analytics
5
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Moodys Analytics Helps Financial Institutions Manage Risk
InstitutionalInvestors CommercialBanks InsuranceCompanies Fixed IncomeTrading Desks Governments
Our customers
Credit research and analytics
Risk management software tools
Stress-testing capabilities / CCAR*
Credit / financial training and certifications
Cash flow valuations for securitized instruments
Economic and demographic data sets
Econometric modeling expertise and creditforecasting
Outsourced research and analytical capabilities
for which Moodys Analytics has solutions
Manage portfolio credit risk
Monitor counterparty exposures
Analyze liquidity risk and asset liability matching
Calculate economic / regulatory capital positions
Assess intrinsic value of complex / illiquid
instrumentsMake projections about economic conditions
have requirements
*Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review
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Research,Data andAnalytics,
60% EnterpriseRisk
Solutions,27%
ProfessionalServices,
13%
Combination of one-off contracts and
semi-recurring revenue
Moodys Analytics Financial Profile
Revenue History*,**
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$
Millions
* Excludes intersegment license revenues.**Prior to 2008, data reflects MIS research revenue and Moodys KMV revenue. 2004 - 2012 data also includes revenue from acquisitions.
2Q13 Revenue: $218.7 million*
79%
21%
Transaction Recurring
~100% recurring revenue Mid-90% renewal rates
Approximately two-thirds recurringrevenue
44%
56%
U.S. Non-U.S.
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Research, Data and Analytics Business Has GrownDespite Weakness in Financial Services Employment
Pricing model limits exposure to customer contraction
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
$Millions
Millionsofjobs
U.S. and U.K Financial Services Employment* (L)RD&A Sales - Annualized Contract Value (R)
*U.S. and U.K. financial services employment data only available through Q1 2013. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.K. Office for National Statistics, respectively.
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Enterprise Risk Solutions Metrics Exhibits a SeasonalRevenue Pattern
ERS Sales by Type ERS Revenue by Type
Maintenance and Subscription revenues are recurring and represent approximately two-thirds of total revenues
Renewed annually and recognized over annual contract periods
License and Service revenues are one-time
Recognized as implementation projects are completed
Sales provide 12-24 months visibility into revenue Seasonal pattern
Sales strongest in Q1 and Q4 due to corporate budget cycle
Revenue strongest in Q4, driven by prior years 4Q sales and customer requirements for year-end project completion
Quarter-to-quarter revenue results can be uneven, reflecting lumpiness in revenue recognition as large projects are completed
Expect smoother revenue as scale leads to higher proportion of recurring revenue from maintenance on installed base
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7080
90
$Millions
Maintenance Subscriptions License and Service
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7080
90
100
$Millions
Maintenance Subscriptions License and Service
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35
MA Full-Year 2013 Revenue Guidance as of July 24, 2013
Global: high-single-digit % range
U.S.: low-double-digit % range
Non-U.S.: mid-single-digit % range
Research, Data & Analytics: high-single-digit % range
Enterprise Risk Solutions: low-double-digit % range
Professional Services: high-single-digit % range
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Conclusion
6
I t d ti | M i E i t | Fi i l O i | M d I t S i | M d A l ti | C l i | A di
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Why Invest in Moodys? We strive to be the worlds most respected authority serving risk-sensitive
financial markets
Defend and enhance our core ratings and research businesses
We have had strong revenue, earnings and cash flow growth
2008 2012 Revenue CAGR of 12%
2008 2012 GAAP EPS CAGR of 13%
2008 2012 Free Cash Flow CAGR of 14%
We are committed to returning capital to our shareholders
Recently increased our annualized dividend to $1.00 per share
Now anticipate total 2013 share repurchases of approximately $1 billion
We plan to continue to selectively invest in strategic growth opportunities
Leverage brand to extend our relevance in financial markets
Expand our product, geographic and thought leadership footprint
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Appendix
7
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Strong Revenue Performance For Second Quarter 2013, With Growthin All Lines of Business at Both MIS and MA
7%
17%
7%
14%
29%
7%
37%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
2Q 2013 YoY Revenue Performance
$263 Corporate Finance
$97 Structured Finance
$85 Financial Institutions
$93 PPIF
$130 RD&A
$60 ERS
$28 Professional Services
7%
14%
8%
10%
9%
3%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
$521 Corporate Finance
$190 Structured Finance
$171 Financial Institutions
$260 RD&A
$56 Professional Services
$176 PPIF
$113 ERS
MIS
22%
MIS
18%
MA
10%
Moodys Total
Revenue2Q 2013: $756
MCO 18%U.S. 18%Non-U.S. 18%
($ millions)
Moodys Total
YTD 2013: $1,488
MCO 16%U.S. 18%Non-U.S. 12%
MA
9%
YTD 2013 YoY Revenue Performance
Moodys TotalRevenue
Moodys Total
Revenue
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Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Revenue$Millions
Corporate Finance
Bank LoansSpeculative GradeInvestment GradeOther - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
$0
$50
$100
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Revenue
$Millions
Financial Institutions
Banking Insurance Managed Investments
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Revenue$Mil
lions
Structured Finance
ABS** RMBS CREF Derivatives
$0
$50
$100
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Revenue$Millions
Public, Project and Infrastructure
Project & Infrastructure FinanceMunicipal Structured ProductsPublic Finance
$0
$100
$200
$300
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Revenue$
Millions
Moodys Analytics
Professional Services
Enterprise Risk Solutions
Research, Data and Analytics
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.
**ABS includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities. CREF includes commercial
mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, andcommercial real estate CDOs.
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Historical Revenue* Mix By Year
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue$Mill
ions
Corporate Finance
Bank LoansSpeculative GradeInvestment GradeOther - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue
$Millions
Financial Institutions
Banking Insurance Managed Investments
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue$Millions
Structured Finance
ABS** RMBS CREF Derivatives
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue$Millions
Public, Project and Infrastructure
Project & Infrastructure FinanceMunicipal Structured ProductsPublic Finance
$0
$100$200$300
$400$500$600
$700$800$900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue$M
illions
Moodys Analytics
Professional ServicesEnterprise Risk SolutionsResearch, Data and Analytics
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.
**ABS includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities. CREF includes commercial
mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, andcommercial real estate CDOs.
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0
2
4
6
8
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Yield(%)
Issuance$Billio
ns
Global Financial Institutions
Global Financial Institution Issuance ($ billions)Global Banking Yield (%)Global Insurance Yield (%)
0
5
10
15
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Yield(%
)
Issuance$Billions
Global Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds andU.S. Speculative Grade Bank Loans
U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination
Global Non-Financial Speculative-Grade Bond Issuance
Global Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bond Issuance
Global Investment-Grade Bond Yield (%)
Global Speculative-Grade Bond Yield (%)
Issuance* and Yields: By Quarter
Sources: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, Barclay's Capital, Thomson Reuters;U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination issuance represents Moodys rated new U.S. bank loanprograms.
Sources: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, Barclay's Capital.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Issuance
$Billions
U.S. Municipal Bonds
Long-Term U.S. Municipal Bond Issuance
Sources: Bond Buyer.
*Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moodys revenue categorization.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Issuanc
e$Billions
Global Rated Structured Finance
ABS RMBS CMBS CDO
Sources: AB Alert, CM Alert, Moodys Corporation.
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Issuance*: By Year
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Issuance$Billion
s
Global Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds andU.S. Speculative Grade Bank Loans
U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan OriginationGlobal Non-Financial Speculative-Grade Bond IssuanceGlobal Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bond Issuance
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Issuance$Billions
Global Financial Institutions
Global Financial Institution Issuance
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Issu
ance$Billions
Global Rated Structured Finance
ABS RMBS CMBS CDO
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Issuance$Billions
U.S. Municipal Bonds
Build America Bond (BAB) Issuance
Long-Term U.S. Municipal Bond Issuance ex. BABs
Sources: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, Barclays Capital, Thomson Reuters; U.S.Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination issuance represents Moodys rated new U.S. bank loanprograms. Sources: Moodys Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic.
Sources: Bond Buyer.
Sources: AB Alert, CM Alert, Moodys Corporation.
*Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moodys revenue categorization.
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Revenue* Distribution: By Geography
30% 34% 31% 36% 35% 33% 32%
70% 66% 69% 64% 65% 67% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance
54% 53% 51% 53% 46% 36% 36%
46% 47% 49% 47%
54% 64% 64%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Structured Finance
U.S. Non-U.S*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.
55% 58% 59% 60% 59% 58% 57%
45%42% 41% 40% 41% 42%
43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Financial Institutions
40% 38% 34% 35% 34% 37% 42%
60% 62% 66% 65% 66% 63% 58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Corporate Finance
52% 56% 56% 58% 57% 54% 56%
48% 44% 44% 42% 43% 46% 44%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Moodys Analytics
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Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
59% 59% 59% 58% 61% 62% 65%
41% 41% 41% 42% 39% 38% 35%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance
50% 41% 43%52% 58% 59% 61%
50%59% 57%
48% 42% 41% 39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Structured Finance
Recurring Transaction*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.
33% 31% 37% 34% 37% 39% 37%
67% 69% 63% 66% 63% 61% 63%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Financial Institutions
54% 64%73% 71% 74% 77% 75%
46% 36%27% 29% 26% 23% 25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Corporate Finance
9% 11% 15% 20%23% 20% 21%
91% 89% 85%80% 77% 80% 79%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Moodys Analytics
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19% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 17%
22% 21% 20% 19% 17% 17% 16%
34%25%
21% 22%20% 18% 18%
25%34%
40% 42% 46% 50% 49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Moodys Investors Service
Corporate Finance
Structured Finance
Financial Institutions
Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.
Revenue* Distribution: By MIS Line of Business and MASegment
76% 71% 68%63% 58% 62% 60%
20% 25% 28%26%
29% 29% 28%
4% 4% 4%11% 13% 13% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Moodys Analytics
Research, Data and Analytics
Enterprise Risk Solutions
Professional Services
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Revenue* Distribution: By MIS Product / Asset Class
58%44% 39% 43% 36% 32% 35%
21%
29%
19%21%
23%17%
23%
9% 20%
25% 18% 23%29%
22%
12% 7% 17% 18% 18% 22% 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Bank Loans Speculative Grade
Investment Grade Other - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
Corporate Finance Revenue by Product
35% 33% 28% 23% 24% 28% 23%
14% 15% 18%20% 25%
26%32%
18% 19% 23% 26%22%
17% 19%
33% 33% 31% 31% 29%24% 26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Derivatives Commercial Real Estate Finance**
Residential Mortgage-backed Securities Asset-backed Securities***
Structured Finance Revenue by Asset Class
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. Represents revenue excluding intercompany royalties and license fees.**CREF includes commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, and commercial real estate CDOs.***ABS includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities.
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4%
27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 26% 28%
67% 68% 69% 69% 70% 70% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Managed Investments Insurance Banking
Financial Institutions Revenue by Product
45% 48% 51% 49% 50% 51% 47%
38%42% 41% 44% 44%
44% 48%
17% 10%8% 7% 6% 5% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13
Public Finance Project & Infrastructure Finance Municipal Structured Products
Public, Project & Infrastructure Revenue by Product
| | | y | y y | | pp
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21%
2%
7%
1%
9%
11%
2%
8%
55%
70%
71%
61%
34%
54%
6%
20%
23%
28%
21%
39%
57%
8%
92%
72%
Asia (Excl. Japan)
S. America / C. America / Caribbean
Africa / Middle East
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Australia / Oceania
Japan
United States
MA 2012 Sales by Region
Professional Services Risk Management Software Research, Data and Analytics
Emerging Developed
MA is Relevant to Financial Markets at All Stages ofDevelopment
Moodys Analytics enables us to increase our presence in emerging markets, selling
products and services before debt capital markets are fully mature
| | | y | y y | | pp
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Regulatory Developments
United States: (the following developments are related to the Dodd-Frank Act)
On May 14, 2013, the SEC hosted a roundtable on the various proposals made in its
study related to assigning credit ratings for structured finance products, commonly
referred to as the Franken Amendment study
European Union:
CRA3 was adopted earlier in the spring of 2013 and went into force on June 20, 2013
| | | y | y y | |
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Select Regulation Related to Structured FinanceBasel 2.5 Increases bank capital requirements primarily in the trading book, including securitization exposures held for trading, and also
triples capital requirements for resecuritizations in banking book. Implemented in the U.S. effective January 1, 2013 for thelargest U.S. banks.
Basel III Further revises the Basel capital frameworks treatment of securitization exposures, including setting the lowest risk weight for
both long and short-term exposures at 20% for both the internal ratings-based approach and the standardized approach. Alsoimposes a stricter definition of capital, increases counterparty capital requirements. Requirements phase in over a 5 yeartransition period. Final rulemaking on risk-weights and definition of capital published July 2013; effective January 2014 for largestUS banks, January 2015 for all others. Higher US leverage ratio requirement proposed July 2013; proposed liquidity ratios stillpending.
Dodd-Frank Act
QM( 1411, 1412, 1414)
On January 10, 2013, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau released the final Ability-To-Repay and Qualified Mortgage (QM)rule which provides a safe harbor for loans that satisfy the definition of a qualified mortgage and are not higher-priced," andprovides a rebuttable presumption for higher-priced mortgage loans.
QRM
(941)
Exempts from risk retention requirements asset-backed securities that are collateralized exclusively by residential mortgages that
qualify as qualified residential mortgages (QRM). The QRM definition proposed in 2011 required a down payment of 20% anddebt-to-income ratios of less than 36 percent.
Loan-LevelDisclosure(942)
Increases disclosure and may reduce issuance volume. Similar to the proposed Regulation AB II, requires an issuer of an asset-backed security to disclose, for each tranche or class of security, certain loan level information regarding the assets backing thatsecurity.
RepurchaseRequests(943)
Requires issuers to disclose demand, repurchase and replacement activity for the same asset class for an initial three-year lookback period ending December 31, 2011 and, subsequent to that date, on a quarterly basis. Limited issuance impact.
Risk Retention(941)
Requires retention of an unhedged and untransferable 5% credit risk of SF securities, potentially dampening U.S. SF issuancefor certain asset classes. This may cause the SPV to stay on securitizers balance sheet under FAS 167 if the securitizermanages the SPV in a way that substantially affects its performance.
FASB/IASB joint financialinstruments accountingprojects
Requires some debt instruments to be marked to fair value. Debt instruments carried at amortized cost or fair value through othercomprehensive income would be subject to more conservative impairment testing, with more timely recognition of credit lossesthan under existing rules. The proposals may create a disincentive to hold securitized assets (i.e., if they have to be marked tofair value and/or subject to more conservative impairment testing), but conversely the proposals may incentivize banks tosecuritize more of their loan portfolios.
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Moodys Global Presence
Moodys Global Staffing
More than 1,400 analysts
Approximately 7,000 employees
Presence in 29 countries
U.S. Non-U.S. Total
6/30/2013 2,686 4,284 6,970
6/30/2012 2,531 3,955 6,486
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in $ millions
Reporting as per 2008 filings 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY08**
Structured Finance 107.2$ 120.1$ 97.7$ 92.2$ 417.2$
Corporate Finance 71.5 97.4 75.0 56.6 300.5
Financial Institutions 64.0 72.1 64.4 56.5 257.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance 55.5 66.2 59.7 48.6 230.0
Total Moody's Investors Service* 298.2 355.8 296.8 253.9 1,204.7
Total Moody's Analytics 132.5 131.8 136.6 149.8 550.7
Total Moody's Corporation 430.7$ 487.6$ 433.4$ 403.7$ 1,755.4$
Reclass for 2008 and 2009 Business Change: Managed Investments, Credi t Estimates
Structured Finance (4.8)$ (4.5)$ (2.0)$ (1.2)$ (12.5)$
Corporate Finance 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.1 6.5
Financial Institutions 3.0 3.0 - - 6.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance - - - - -Total Moody's Investors Service - - - - -
Total Moody's Analytics - - - - -
Total Moody's Corporation -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
2009 (Current) Business Line Reporting 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY08
Structured Finance 102.4$ 115.6$ 95.7$ 91.0$ 404.7$
Corporate Finance 73.3 99.0 77.0 57.7 307.0
Financial Institutions 67.0 75.1 64.4 56.5 263.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance 55.5 66.2 59.7 48.6 230.0
Total Moody's Investors Service* 298.2 355.9 296.8 253.8 1,204.7Total Moody's Analytics 132.5 131.8 136.6 149.8 550.7
Total Moody's Corporation 430.7$ 487.7$ 433.4$ 403.6$ 1,755.4$
* Excludes intersegment royalty
** FY08 "Reporting as per 2008 filings" represents cumulative total of 10Q filings
2008 Revenue MIS Business Line Reclassification
In August 2008, the global managed investments ratings group which was previously part of Structured Finance, was moved to the Financial Institutions business. In 2009, credit
estimates was moved to Corporate Finance.
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2009 Moodys Analytics Revenue Reclassificationin $ millions
Reporting as per filings in year 2008 2009
Subscriptions 475.9$ n/a
Software 49.2 n/a
Professional Services 25.6 n/a
Total Moody's Analytics 550.7$ n/a
Reclass for 2009 Realignment*:
Subscriptions (57.2)$ n/a
Software 59.6 n/a
Professional Services (2.4) n/a
Total Moody's Analytics -$ n/a
2009 (Current) Reporting 2008 2009
Research, Data and Analytics 418.7$ 413.6$
Enterprise Risk Solutions 108.8 145.1
Professional Services 23.2 20.8
Total Moody's Analytics 550.7$ 579.5$
*During the fourth quarter of 2009 the Moody's Analytics ("MA") groupings were realigned and renamed to reflect the reporting unit structure
for the MA segment at December 31, 2009. Pursuant to this realignment the Subscriptions grouping was renamed Research, Data andAnalytics and the Software grouping was renamed Risk Management Software. The revised groupings class ify certain subscription-based
risk management software revenue and advisory services relating to software sales to the redefined Risk Management Software grouping.
Risk Management Software was renamed Enterprise Risk Solutions during the first quarter of 2012.
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Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Operating Margin Reconciliation
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to GAAP
(in $ millions) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
As Reported Operating Income $ 748.2 $ 687.5 $ 772.8 $ 888.4 $ 1,077.4
Operating Margin 42.6% 38.3% 38.0% 39.0% 39.5%
Add Adjustment:
Depreciation & Amortization $ 1 $ 64.1 $ 6.3 $ 9.2 $ 3.5
Restructuring (2.5) 17.5 0.1 - -
Goodwill Impairment Charge - - - - 12.2
Adjusted Operating Income $ 820.8 $ 69.1 $ 839.2 $ 967.6 $ 1,183.1
Adjusted Operating Margin 46.8% 42.8% 41.3% 42.4% 43.3%
Moody's Corporation Operating Margin Guidance Reconciliation
2013F*Projected Operating Margin - GAAP 41% to 42%
Projected impact from Depreciation & Amortization Approximately 3%
Projected Adjusted Operating Margin 44% to 45%
*Guidance as of July 24, 2013.
Introduction| Macroeconomic Environment | Financial Overview | Moodys Investors Service | Moodys Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to GAAP(cont.)
Moody's Corporation Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
(in $ millions) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*
Cash Flow from Operations $ 539.7 $ 643.8 $ 653.3 $ 803.3 $ 823.1 $ ~900.0
Less Adjustment:
Capital Expenditures $ 84.4 $ 90.7 $ 79.0 $ 67.7 $ 45.0 $ ~50.0
Free Cash Flow $ 455.3 $ 553.1 $ 574.3 $ 735.6 $ 778.1 $ ~850.0
Cash Flow used in Investing Activities $ (319.3) $ (93.8) $ (228.8) $ (267.6) $ (50.2)
Cash Flow provided by (used in) Financing Activities $ (349.8) $ (348.8) $ (241.3) $ (417.7) $ 202.6
*Guidance as of July 24, 2013.
Non-GAAP Projected Diluted EPS Guidance Reconciliation
Projected Full-Year
Ended December 31,
2013F
Diluted EPS guidance - GAAP $ 3.35 - 3.45
Impact of litigation settlement 0.14
Diluted EPS guidance - Non-GAAP $ 3.49 - 3.59
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