morgan stanley asia pacific summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 morgan stanley asia pacific summit...

11
1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery continues in margins, EPS and dividends 2001-2005 EPS CAGR +14.4% Earnings per share 1 1. before significant items Dividends per share 2001-2005 DPS CAGR +22.5% 7.0c 8.0c 10.0c 12.5c 14.0c 14.5c 7.0c 10.5c 13.0c 15.5c 17.5c 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 14.0c 18.5c 23.0c 28.0c 31.5c H1 H2 11.7c 13.3c 15.8c 17.7c 19.8c 19.4c 13.6c 15.9c 18.5c 21.3c 23.5c 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 25.3c 29.2c 34.3c 39.0c 43.3c H1 H2

Upload: others

Post on 14-Aug-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

1

1

Morgan StanleyAsia Pacific Summit 2006

14-16 November 2006

John WartigChief Financial Officer

2

Consistent delivery continues in margins, EPS and dividends

2001-2005 EPS CAGR +14.4%

Earnings per share1

1. before significant items

Dividends per share

2001-2005 DPS CAGR +22.5%

7.0c 8.0c 10.0c12.5c 14.0c 14.5c

7.0c

10.5c

13.0c

15.5c17.5c

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

14.0c

18.5c

23.0c

28.0c31.5c

H1

H2

11.7c 13.3c15.8c 17.7c 19.8c 19.4c

13.6c15.9c

18.5c

21.3c

23.5c

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

25.3c

29.2c

34.3c

39.0c 43.3c

H1

H2

Page 2: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

2

3

CCA moving to a broader based and better balanced business mix…

Carbonated beverages

Non-carbonated beverages

Food

Revenue$4.0bn

EBIT$570.6m

Capital Employed

$3.6bn

Revenue MixGeographic Mix - 2005

53%75%

42%

11%

12%

11%

16%20%

11%7%

9% 7%19%

0%

7%

Food - SPCABeverages - Indonesia & PNGBeverages - South KoreaBeverages - PacificBeverages - Australia

2001 HY06

95% 68%

22%

5% 10%

4

Agenda

Importance of product and package innovation

Competitive landscape in Australia

Impact of the commodity cycle on CCA’s cost base

Asian business performance

CCA’s alcohol strategy

Capital management

Page 3: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

3

5

Product Innovation continues to drive growth

74 new product launches in 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Product launches

6

In Australia, diet CSDs have delivered 10% revenue growth per annum for the last 3 years

Coca-Cola Zero a great consumer proposition with overwhelming early results –Coca-Cola trademark volumes up 9% in the first half of 2006

Coca-Cola Zero expected to be as popular as diet Coke over time, a $300 million pa brand in Australia – the No. 2 brand behind Coca-Cola

New product pipeline led by Coke Zero

Page 4: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

4

7

Launch of Coca-Cola Zero – January 2006

KEY FACTS:

Outstanding consumer acceptance

Coca-Cola Zero has already taken 13% share of the Australian cola category

We have grown our total cola market share from 74% to 78%* in the supermarket channel

Volume growth of 9% for Coca-Cola, diet Coke and Coca-Cola Zero in HY06

Coca-Cola Zero already at > 60% of diet Coke volumes

* YTD September 2006

8

Launch of Powerade Isotonic – May 2006

New formulation Powerade Isotonic launched in May06 – more effective at hydrating and delivering energy to the body

Key opportunity for the sports drink category is to increase per capita consumption which is <30% of US and Japanese per caps

Powerade grew volumes >25% in HY06

5751

29

16

Japan USA Taiwan Australia

Per Capita Sports Drink ConsumptionPer 8oz Serve

Page 5: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

5

9

CCA’s non-CSD business has grown over 30% per annum in the last 3 years driven by the growth of water, sports drinks and juice

Revenue from non-carbonated soft drinks accounts for 20% of Australian revenue

Opportunities in non-carbonated beverages continue

Argenti

na

New Ze

aland

Canad

a

United

Stat

esTh

ailan

d

SOURCE: Perrier Vittel S.A.,

Switz

erlan

d

Italy

Belgium

Spain

Portu

gal

Greec

e

Austra

lia

Brazil

Philipp

ines

Japa

nChin

aSou

th Afric

aViet

nam

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Fran

ce

United

King

dom

German

y

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Canadean

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Average

Argenti

na

New Ze

aland

Canad

a

United

Stat

esTh

ailan

d

SOURCE: Perrier Vittel S.A.,

Switz

erlan

d

Italy

Belgium

Spain

Portu

gal

Greec

e

Austra

lia

Brazil

Philipp

ines

Japa

nChin

aSou

th Afric

aViet

nam

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Fran

ce

United

King

dom

German

y

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Canadean

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Annual bottled water consumption per capita

Average

Australia’s per capita consumption is only a quarter of Europe’s and half of the USA’s

CCA’s lead brands Mt Franklin and Pump continue to deliver 15-20% revenue growth each year

10

Australia - Competitive landscape

Australian business represents ~80% of CCA earnings

2001-2005 EBIT CAGR of +12.1%

2005 and 2006 more difficult trading environment due to commodity driven cost increases

Brand Coke has grown market share despite a widening in the average retail price gap to major competitor

Mount Franklin and Pump continue to grow volumes around 15%

Expectations of earnings growth of 6-8% on revenue growth of around 7-8% for the second half of 2006

Page 6: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

6

11

Three key categories of CCA’s COGS:

– 40% - Concentrate (syrup) purchased from The Coca-Cola Company

– 30% - Aluminium, sugar, PET resin, including conversion to aluminium cans, PET bottles and refined sugar

– 30% - production costs, labour, depreciation, etc

Commodity inputs all trading 30-80% above 10 year average prices

CCA hedging policy aims to provide some clarity to the cost base over a 12 month period for sugar and aluminium

No forward market for PET resin

Expect COGS per unit case for beverages to increase by 8% in 2006 (in constant currencies)

Impact of rising commodity prices on beverage COGS

12

Key commodity inputs trading 30-80% above 10 year averages

NB: as at 10 August 2006

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USc/lb

SUGAR - USD

Last 10yrs Avg (1995-2005)

NY No.11 Raw Sugar Futures - Usc/lb

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

USD/MT

PET - USD

Last 10yrs Avg (1995-2005)

PET Resin - Far East USD/MT

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USD/MT

ALUMINIUM - USD

Last 10yrs Avg (1995-2005)

Aluminium 3 month - USD/MT

Page 7: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

7

13

1500

2500

3500

4500

Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr064%

8%

12%

16%

20%

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06

Indonesia – Economic landscape

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-066%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06

InflationFuel Prices

Retail Sales IndexInterest Rates

IDR per Litre

Inflation climbed as high as 18%...

Fuel prices have increased by > 160% since Jan05…

Retail sales declined by 18%

And interest rates have increased to 12.5%...

14

Indonesia

H1 2006 EBIT impacted by volume declines and significant increases in cost base driven by:

Higher COGSHigher fuel costs, flow on effect of high inflation2005 investment in sales force and coolers

Steady improvement since July with volumes starting to stabilise

Expect Indonesia to return to profitability in H2 2006

Page 8: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

8

15

South Korea

Great progress in HY06 with the business well on track to materially increase profits for the full year

Delivered significant improvements in EBIT in HY06 with local currency revenue per case up 10%Continued expansion of the product portfolio with the launch of Coca-Cola Zero, Haru green tea and Minute Maid flavour extensions

Extortion in July has resulted in volume declines of 7% over the past 4 months –expected to take 6-12 months for the business to stabilise

Impact of the extortion is the subject of an insurance claim – to be finalised in H2 2007

16

JV with SABMiller to sell and distribute imported premium beer in Australia – Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Miller Genuine Draft and Pilsner Urquell

Exclusive agreement to distribute the premium spirit portfolio of the global premium spirits distributor Maxxium and manufacture alcoholic RTDs including Jim beam & cola

Leverages CCA’s scale, customer relationships, sales force capability and distribution reach with SABMiller and Maxxium’s world-class marketing and technical capabilities

Broadening the beverage portfolio into alcohol

Page 9: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

9

17

Capital expenditure

Capex expected to be around 7% of revenue for the next few years

– ~5% maintenance capex– ~2% for infrastructure capex

Maintenance capex focus:– Cold drink equipment– Incremental capacity expansion– Computers, vehicles etc

Major infrastructure capex: – $160 million or ~2% of revenue

for 3 years on automated warehousing – Sydney & Auckland

– $15 million SPCA warehouse consolidation

Capital Expenditure

$0m

$20m

$40m

$60m

$80m

$100m

$120m

HY04 HY05 HY06

PPEOther (vehicles, computers etc)Cold drink equipment

5.0%5.0%

4.8%4.7%

18

Balance sheet remains strong

Expecting to maintain current debt levels

Interest cover strong at 3.8x within CCA’s target range of 3.0 – 4.0x

Net Debt & Interest Cover

$0m

$500m

$1,000m

$1,500m

$2,000m

$2,500m

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 HY060.0x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

Net Debt Interest Cover

Page 10: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

10

19

Dividend

Target payout ratio of between 70-80% of net profit

2005 payout ratio at 73%

Dividends per share

14.0c

18.5c

23.0c

28.0c

31.5c

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

20

Morgan StanleyAsia Pacific Summit 2006

14-16 November 2006

John WartigChief Financial Officer

Page 11: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 · 2020-07-05 · 1 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit 2006 14-16 November 2006 John Wartig Chief Financial Officer 2 Consistent delivery

11

21

The material in this presentation is general background information aboutCoca-Cola Amatil

and is current at the date of the presentation. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete.

This presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account

the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. It does not amount to advice or any recommendation in relation to

Coca-Cola Amatil shares.

For further information visit

www.ccamatil.comor contact

Kristina DevonInvestor Relations Manager

(Ph) +612 9259 6185 [email protected]