most advisor aug 2015 - motilal oswal · monthly markets newsletter on this page most value, most...

AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

In This Issue

• Market Outlook for the month

• Equity Market Outlook

• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook

• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas

• Model Advisory Portfolios

• Recommended Funds

• Client Portal

Dear Investor,

Market performance: Indian Equities ended almost flat

in the month of July with volatile swings on negative and

positive international news flow. Midcaps and small-caps

outperformed with a 4-5% gain for indices and more for

3rd rung companies.

Domestic triggers ahead - hopes getting built-up:

The monsoon session of Parliament was expected to see passage of GST Bill - one

of the biggest reform for the government and the country. However, other matters

continue to stall normal functioning of Parliament. It is crucial that GST bill and if

possible Land Bill get passed for a rerating of our markets. Sowing has picked up

while monsoon has stalled. It is crucial that monsoons pick up. RBI could remain

stubborn on the rates front, but corporate capex as well as government spend is

expected to see an uptick in 2HFY16.

Global worries create undue excitement: Greece continued to drive the markets

as did China. Greece has reached a truce with EU, while Chinese Central Bank

continues to pump-in cash to support the equity markets. Chinese stocks and the

slowdown in the economy will continue to influence Indian markets too at regular

intervals. Commodities have been a been a casualty of the melt-down in China.

The Road ahead: Earnings are expected to pick-up in 2H with aid from a small

base, lower commodity prices and lower interest rates. Stocks are reflecting a buoyant

mood with strong inflows into Mutual Funds and second rung stocks. The movement

in 2nd and 3rd tier stocks makes us cautious on the midcaps space and we

recommend not going over-board on this space especially given the temptation of

juicy tips on circuit hitters. Stock movements in this space are ignoring fundamentals.

This is to be expected as "Bulls" get "Ready to Charge" as per our Quant Team for

a target of 8900 on the NIFTY for now with further upsides likely to open up. We

recommend Auto, Banking and Media as top sectors to invest and recommend to

stick with tried and tested investment avenues such as Maruti, Yes Bank, Eveready

and Inox Wind.

Global Market

Index 31-July-15 MoM (%) YoY(%)

Sensex 28,115 1.2 8.6

Nifty 8,533 2.0 10.5

FTSE 6,696 2.7 -0.5

Dow 17,690 0.4 6.8

Nasdaq 5,128 2.8 17.3

Hang Sang 24,636 -6.1 -0.5

Economic Pulse

Thought for the month

Ravi Shenoy

Vice President

Key Highlights for the Month

GST in monsoon session of Parliament - will it go through?

First Greece, then China, what next?

Circuit hitters - movement ignores fundamentals, caution advised

August 2015

Key Indicators Current Month Change (%)

IIP 2.7% -34.15

WPI -2.40% -

10 Year Yield 7.83% -0.38

USD/ INR 64.13 0.75

Crude ($) 52.21 -17.90

Gold (10 gms) 24592 -6.69

1


Sectoral Highlights

On This Page

Equity Market Outlook

Markets & Our Recommendations

Equity Market Outlook

√ Nifty ended the month of July with a gain of 165 points. Nifty was mostly

range bound during the month and respected the immediate support of

the Index which is placed at 8300. Over optimism by Put Writers during

the month dragged the Index lower but it managed to recover its losses to

close higher.

√ Nifty after breaking from the 'Downward Sloping Wedge' saw a temporary

pullback but the pattern remains intact with medium term support placed

at 8180 (coincides with highest written put). The upside expectation re-

mains at 9200 with a temporary hurdle at 8900. Weekly chart has a large

'Shadow' in place, indicating high demand at lower level and re-confirm-

ing the immediate support at 8300.

√ A 'Swing' in the momentum indicator from the level of 40-45 is a positive

indication as it is expected to be the left extreme within the 'Dual Distribu-

tion' structure. Z-score of Nifty is placed around zero indicating an Equilib-

rium of all biases and a fresh up-move is expected. Nifty is placed healthy

within the 'Global Equity Rotation' and is expected to witness

outperformance hence, may lead to Foreign inflows.

√ In Sectors: Capital Goods, Media & Energy turns up to be common lead-

ing sector from two individual analysis. Banking is another sector which

after being placed in neutral is moving towards outperformance and can

relatively outperform. Auto based on a short term derivative study looks

positive for a move of few weeks within its overall trading range.

Technical Outlook

Bank Positive SBIN Buy / 270

Capital Goods Positive Siemens Buy / 1455

Media Positive ̀ Dish TV Buy / 116

Realty Negative HDIL Sell / 86

Sector Our Views Top Pick Recommendation/CMP

Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,

Nifty - Downward Sloping Wedge

Nifty - Daily Support

Nifty - Momentum Indicator

August 2015

2

Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-August2015.pdf

Data as on 31st July 2015


On This Page

Derivatives Market Outlook,

Commodities Market Outlook

Markets & Our Recommendations

Derivatives Market Outlook

√ Nifty futures see rollovers of 64%, which is almost in line with 3M average. We saw more longs through the expiry, which seems to have rolled

as a result OI up 5% (EoE) Expiry over Expiry

√ Stock futures saw fresh additions after unwinding in last few expiries. Rollovers were at 83% with a tiny lead over 3M average rollovers.

√√√√√ Positive: Auto: Longs in M&M, Maruti and Tyre stocks (Tata Motors in pessimistic

zone). Capital Goods: Marginal Longs in Crompton, Siemens and BHEL. FMCG: Mar-

ginal Longs in HUL and ITC after Short Covering last expiry. IT: Bargain Hunting in select

stocks. Media and Oil & Gas: Longs continue to add & roll

√√√√√ Non Secular OI activity: Cement: Longs in Grasim & Ultra Tech, Shorts in ACC. Pharma:

Shorts in LUPIN, SUN Pharma. Late expiry Longs in DR Reddy

√√√√√ Negative: PSU Banks: Short Roll Continue but Risky as lot of price damage already done.

Metals & Realty: Short roll continues

√√√√√ Neutral: Telecom, Private Banks (Discarding Non Directional OI in Kotak & Federal Bk)

SECTORS OI Nifty- Bull Call Ratio Spread

Actionable

BUY 1 LOT 8600 CESELL 2 LOTS 8900CE

√ Bias remains positive considering Nifty futures setup

√ Option composition indicates head room open till 8800

√ Considering the long expiry ahead, Call Ratio spread

could suit the best

Commodities Market Outlook

√ Gold witnessed the biggest monthly loss since June 2013 as concerns over Greece faded and U.S. monetary policy came back into focus.

√ In Europe, the drama over Greece seems to have ended after Greek approved tough austerity measures set by the creditors which enabled the

start of fresh bailout negotiations. In short, even as some hiccups remain before Greece gets a new bailout, the possibility of Grexit has been

greatly reduced which dented the safe haven appeal of precious metals.

√ The focus now has shifted back to the monetary divergence between U.S and Europe. The July FOMC statement gave no explicit signals about

the timing of the rate hike but the change in the language does reflect that lift off options remain open in September.

√ Also, U.S. economic momentum is showing signs of revival in Q2 which will keep expectations of a rate hike alive in September. Preliminary

reading of Q2 GDP showed that the economy expanded by 2.3%. Housing data has also shown signs of pick up, while employment data

remains robust with the only exception of wages.

√ On the investment demand side, SPDR outflows continued for a third month in July, declining by a massive 37 tonnes. Chinese demand

remains subdued but Indian demand showing some improvement post the steep price decline.

√ Broadly, precious metals look very weak and vulnerable and will remain very sensitive to U.S. data. We believe that the path of least resistance

remains lower. Pricewise, spot Gold has breached crucial supports near $1140 and could extend weakness towards $1050 -980.

Gold

August 2015

3

Target Profit : 4000

Stop Loss: 1500

‐3000.0

‐2000.0

‐1000.0

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

8200.0

8300.0

8400.0

8500.0

8600.0

8700.0

8800.0

8900.0

9000.0

9100.0

9200.0

EXPIRY PAYOFF


BUY

Yes Bank

CMP*: INR829

Target: INR950

√ Yes Bank is a full-service commercial bank with Corporate, Retail and SME Banking

platforms.

√ The Bank offer higher rates on the savings category which has helped CASA+Term

deposits rise to >50% of funds

√ On the base of 662 branches and 1,277 ATMs, management aims to add ~100-150

branches per year.

√ Stable spreads and traction in fees will keep PAT CAGR strong at 26% over FY15/18E.

√ We recommend to Buy with a target price of INR950 (2.4x FY17E BV).

On This Page

Large Cap Investment Ideas,

Mid Cap Investment Ideas

Must Act

Large Cap Investment Ideas

Market & Our Recommendation√ Maruti Suzuki is the largest personal mobility vehicle manufacturer in India.

√ MSIL has guided for 11-12% growth for FY16 vs SIAM's industry growth est. of 6-8%.

√ It stands to gain from Yen depreciation - import content is at 15%-16% of sales and

royalty is at 5.5%.

√ Coupled with volume growth over FY15-17E, margin expansion should help drive a

40% EPS CAGR.

√ We recommend to BUY for a Target of INR 5298.

BUY

Maruti Suzuki

CMP*: INR4330

Target: INR5298

√ Inox Wind was India's fourth-largest wind turbine generator manufacturer in FY14

√ Order book for Inox Wind stands at 1.2GW (up 4% QoQ), and provides visibility for

~15 months

√ We expect a 44% revenue CAGR over FY15-17, largely supported by 28% volume

growth.

√ Driven by strong earnings growth and debt repayment, we expect RoE to improve to

28% in FY17.

√ We recommend to BUY for a target price of INR543

Inox Wind

CMP*: INR417

Target: INR543

BUY

Mid Cap Investment Ideas

√ Eveready with its popular tag line "Give Me Red" commands 50% market share in batterries.

√ Eveready's battery business cash flows will be used to non-battery growth businesses such

as LED lighting (a INR5000cr opportunity in 5 years) and home and kitchen applianes.

√ We believe Eveready can grow its earnings at a CAGR of 30% in coming years.

√ We recommend to Buy with a revised target of INR400.


BUY

Eveready

CMP*: INR331

Target: INR400

August 2015

4


On This Page

MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap

Build a Portfolio

MOSt Value - Model Advisory Portfolio for Investors

Scrip MBP Wtg.

Axis Bank 574 10.0

Ultra Tech 3149 10.0

ICICI Bank 302 7.5

United Spirits 3705 7.5

SBI 270 7.5

Sun Pharma 822 7.5

Asian Paints 883 7.5

Tata Motors 384 7.5

HPCL 922 5.0

Coal India 439 5.0

HDFC 1340 5.0

Jubilant Foodworks 1832 5.0

L&T 1791 5.0

Shriram Transport 891 5.0

Cadila Healthcare Ltd 1887 5.0

TTTTTota lota lota lota lota l 1 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 0

Sectoral Allocation For Whom

Investment

Duration

Risk Profile

few months

to a year

Defensive

Investors

What’s In What’s Out

-

Long Term

Investors

Cadila Health

MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Advisory Portfolio for Positional Traders

Scrip MBP Wtg.

ASHOKLEY 84 10.0ASIANPAINT 883 10.0

AXISBANK 574 10.0TATAMOTORS 384 10.0

CASTROLIND 491 5.0

GLENMARK 1012 5.0HDFC 1340 5.0

HDFCBANK 1112 5.0PVR 844 5.0

RECLTD 271 5.0SUNPHARMA 822 5.0

TECHM 531 5.0

YESBANK 829 5.0Cash 15.0

TTTTTotalotalotalotalotal 100100100100100


Investment

Duration

Risk Profile

Few months

horizon

Moderate

Investors


Medium Term

Investors

Cadila HealthDish TVHeroMotoNtpc

MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors

Scrip MBP Wtg.

TVS Motors 238 12.0Repco Home Finance 690 12.0Suprajit Engineering 143 12.0Bajaj Corp 456 11.0Bajaj Finance 5475 10.0Berger Paints 218 10.0Finolex cables 259 9.0Eveready Industries 330 9.0Engineers India 243 8.0Kitex Garments 775 7.0Cash 5 0.0TTTTTotalotalotalotalotal 100100100100100


Investment

Duration

Risk Profile

few months

to a year

Aggressive

Investors


Long Term

Investors

---- ----


August 2015

5

Asian PaintGlenmarkPVRREC Ltd

Sundaram Fin.

Tata Steel


On This Page

MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

Managed Funds

August 2015

6

MOSt PMS

Top Holdings in Value Strategy

√ The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done

in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.

√ Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued

stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.

√ Money multiplied by 21.52 times in just 12 years.

√ INR1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR21.52 Crs vs. 8.44 Crs in CNX

Nifty.

√ Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 28.19% vs. CNX Nifty

returns of 18.83%, an outperformance of 9.36% (CAGR).

Value Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 9.84

Bosch Ltd. 9.82

HDFC Bank Ltd. 9.76

Eicher Motors Ltd. 9.75

HDFC Ltd. 7.95

Sector Allocation % Holdings

Banking & Finance 29.89

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 29.76

Pharmaceuticals 9.84

Oil and Gas 6.67

FMCG 6.22


NTDOP Strategy

√ The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part

of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid

Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

√ The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services

& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.

√ Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 20.11% annualized returns vs. 6.52% of

CNX Midcap, delivering an annualized alpha of 13.59%.

Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

Eicher Motors Ltd. 16.06

HPCL 11.55

Bajaj Finance Ltd. 10.22

Page Industries Ltd. 8.35

Bosch Ltd. 7.96

All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above arepost fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

G: Growth , E: Equity, HE: Hybrid-Equity, HD: Hybrid-Debt D: Debt, F: Fund, EA: Equity-Arbitrage, ST- Short Term, HA: Hybrid- ArbitrageData as on 31st July 2015

AGGRESSIVE - High Risk Return %

Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%

DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund E 53.0 41.0 20%

HDFC Mid Cap Opportunities E 36.3 33.8 20%

Most Focused Multicap 35 E 51.8 NA 20%

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq Fund E 19.6 23.4 20%

Birla Sun Life Monthly Inc Plan II HD 19.9 16.1 20%

Total 100

Return %

Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%

Most Focused 25 E 34.9 NA 20%

HDFC Balanced Fund (G) HD 22.2 23.8 20%

IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund (G) D 12.8 9.5 20%

Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund D 10.1 9.6 20%

Franklin India Short Term Income (G) D 11.2 10.3 20%

Total 100

DEFENSIVE - Low Risk

Sector Allocation % Holdings

Banking & Finance 28.22

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 24.02

FMCG 17.70

Oil and Gas 11.55

Diversified 6.22



On This Page

Investment Solutions

Client Portal

Game Changer

August 2015

7

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