MOSt Market OutlookDate: Tuesday, April 02, 2013

World Markets Market Outlook FLAT

Hangseng

Nikkei 12107.4 -27.62

22364.28 64.65

SGX Nifty 5710 -13 Expect market to open on a flat note on account of global cues. Dow closed down slightly, while S&P

500 and Nasdaq lost between 0.5% and 0.9% after US PMI data came in lower than expected. Asian

markets have recovered partially from the lows after a weak opening. Brent crude was up by 1% to

$111/bbl. Both M&M and Tata Motors reported monthly sales volumes in line with estimates, while

Hero Honda reported lower than expected monthly sales number.

Dow 14572.85 -5.69

Nasdaq 3239.173 -28.348

FTSE 6411.74 24.18

London Metal Exchange(LME) Rates

Research Updates:

TATA MOTORS: Mar-13 volumes: In-line, pressure on MHCV & PV continues, growth in LCVs

moderates - Total Mar-13 volumes declined by 27.6% YoY (+17.3% MoM) to 72,712 units (v/s est

72,129).

M&M: Mar-13 volumes: Auto volumes above est as easing supply constraints drive growth in pick-ups;

tractor sales in-line - M&M’s Mar-13 Auto volumes grew 10.6% YoY (+8.5% MoM) to 51,904 units (v/s

est ~50,554 units). UV (incl. pick-ups) volumes grew 14.7% YoY (+8.8% MoM) to 44,238 (v/s est

43,049).

#N/A N/A

Zinc #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Aluminium #N/A N/A

B.Crude$ 110.83$ -0.25

Copper #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Nifty Trend

Trend Reversal

5712 5778

43,049).

HERO MOTO: Below est at 468,283 units (-11.4% YoY, -6.6% MoM); commences exports to new

markets - Hero MotoCorp’s Mar-13 volumes declined by 11.4% YoY (-6.6% MoM) at 468,283 units

(v/s est 524,984). Our channel interaction indicates relatively higher retails than dispatches leading to

correction in channel inventory by a week.

PNB has cut deposit rate and OBC has also slashed deposit rate few days before. We expect banks

may cut deposit and lending rate to maintain margin. We are positive for SBI, OBC, ICICI Bank etc.

DOWN DOWN

Short Term Intermediate Term

10 DMA* 20 DMA*

Oil companies reduced petrol rates by Re 1.02 a litre because benchmark international oil prices have

dropped.

IVRCL Ltd is selling its stake in three highway project firms, having a total project cost of Rs.2,200

crore, to Tata Group-promoted TRIL Roads Pvt. Ltd. We expect it will be positive for IVRCL which will

help to reduce its debt worth Rs60bn.

Buy

MOSt Velocity (Reiterate Buy) (Medium Term with few months horizon)

ICICI Bank Company description

ICICI Bank is the second largest bank in India, with a balance sheet size of Rs3.9t and a wide

geographical reach of 2,515 branches and 4,500+ ATMs. ICICI Bank, through its subsidiaries, is a

leading player in insurance and asset management.

Key investment arguments

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) is expected to deliver EPS CAGR of 23%+ over FY12-15E, on a higher base of

Current Market Price 1,051

Maximum Buy Price 1,053

Portfolio Allocation 5.0%

ICICI Bank

is the second largest bank in India, with a

balance sheet size of Rs3.9tn.

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) is expected to deliver EPS CAGR of 23%+ over FY12-15E, on a higher base of

25%+ over FY10-12, driving up the core RoE from ~10% in FY10 to 17%+ in FY15E.

Importantly, the Tier 1 would remain strong at 10%+ at end-FY15.

With a market share of 4.2% in the domestic loans and largest branch network in the private

financials, above industry growth and favorable margins will drive earnings.

ICICIBC has managed the asset quality well during the last 18 months of pain in the Indian economy.

While FY14 will be critical to see the fate of few large exposures, the bank is confident of tiding over

this without any dent on its profitability. Recovery in Indian economy / corporate capex will be viewed

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 6, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025

balance sheet size of Rs3.9tn. this without any dent on its profitability. Recovery in Indian economy / corporate capex will be viewed

positive for ICICIBC.

Valuation and view

Valuations for ICICIBC will evolve as it delivers RoE improvement over the next 2 years (to come at

the near sector averages). Importantly, it will have scope to further boost its leverage as capital may

get boost from return of capital by key subsidiaries.

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 6, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025

MOSt Market OutlookDate: Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Nifty Technical View

:

:

:

Nifty The Nifty has seen a smart rally from the level of 5600 in the last two trading

session. This follow up upmove may extend towards 5770 and 5870 which

should be an important resistance. On the other hand, any retracement could

see buying support emerging at 5600 followed by 5550. Support 1 5600

Support 2 5550

Resistance 1 5770

Nifty Technical View

:

:

:

Resistance 1 5770

Resistance 2 5870

Reversal Level 6000

:

:

:

BANK NIFTY

Resistance 1

Bank Nifty has also seen a buying pressure in the last two trading session. The

immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty lies at 11550 post which the next

headwind should emerge at 11850. Any retracement from hereon is likely to see

support emerging at around 11000 level. 11550

Support 1 11000

Support 2 10750

:

:

:

11850

Reversal Level

Resistance 1 support emerging at around 11000 level.

12100

11550

Resistance 2

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 6, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 6, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025

MOSt Market Outlook

Date:

Value Chg

5842 +8

26 -11

13.3mn +1.1

24.4 -

FII Trades in F&O (Rs Bn.) Sector OI

Current Level 0.96 (1.3 - 0.6) 14.8 (17.7 - 12.5) 6000 (6.6mn Shs) 5600 (8.5mn Shs)

Premum/Disc.

Nifty

Nifty futures saw over 1mn shares worth additions, the compression in premium though

indicated more short bias in the fresh build-up.

On the Options we saw writing in the 5800 and higher strike Calls and 5600 and lower strike

Puts. The additions were almost equal maintain the OIPCR.

Stocks

Fresh Longs were seen in Infra, Pharma and select Pvt. Banking Stocks. Realty saw both longs

and short covering. Metals saw shorts.

DABUR, DRREDDY, GODREJIND, INDUSIND, IVRCL and HDIL added longs. COALIND,

JINDALSTEL AND STERLITE added shorts.

CAIRN and DLF saw short covering.

Bias

With high congestion in 5600 Put and distributed build up in 5700 and higher strike Calls. The

bias remains moderately bullish till 5600 holds.

NSE OI (# Shrs)

SGX OI (# Shrs)

Nifty Options OI Ch. ( # Shrs in Lacs)

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Nifty Future Internals Nifty Option Internals

Stock Name OIPCR (Extremes) India VIX (Extremes) Heaviest Call (OI) Heaviest Put (OI)

-5.0

5.0

15.0

55

00

56

00

57

00

58

00

59

00

60

00

61

00

62

00

63

00

64

00

65

00

Call OI Ch

Put OI Ch

FII Trades in F&O (Rs Bn.) Sector OI

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Short

Long

Long Long

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

IDX Fut IDX Opt STK Fut STK Opt

-5.0

5.0

15.0

55

00

56

00

57

00

58

00

59

00

60

00

61

00

62

00

63

00

64

00

65

00

Call OI Ch

Put OI Ch

MOSL and/or its affiliates may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.