motilal research

8/19/2019 Motilal Research

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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

n This Issue

• Market Outlook for the month

• Equity Market Outlook

• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook

• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas

• Model Advisory Portfolios

• Recommended Funds

• Tax Free Bonds

Dear Investor,

Market performance: Frontline Indices ended February

with a 7% loss and a 12.2% loss YTD. Midcaps have been

butchered and are now at attractive valuations as are

sectors such as Banking, Metals and Capital Goods.

Budget 2016-17: 11% Net Tax revenue growth look

realistic and is lower than our assumption of 21% income

tax growth for NIFTY companies. Expenditure focus is on Rural (especially Agriculture)

Infrastructure and INR75000cr Pay Commission payout. All these have potential to

raise consumer spend and dirve demand in consumer and economy-related sectors

The Pay Commission payout can add 0.7% to GDP or 1% factoring in a conservativ

1.5x turn of this money flow. The lower capitalization for banks was the only

disappointment, but "Outside-the-budget" measure make up for the disappointment

Fiscal [email protected]%: Lower net borrowings (INR4.3 Lakh crore) for FY17 wi

aid lower interest rates , spur consumption, and reduce interest costs for debt heavycompanies. Cyclicals tend to get fired-up by such measures and beaten-down stock

could lead the upmove initially. FD investors should lock into rates before April'16

when Banks are expected to cut base rates by 40-50bps.

Taxing times for the Rich: The Budget raised surcharge on 1CR+ salary from 12%

to 15%, raised service tax to 15%, imposed a 1% luxury tax on large cars and a

1-4% Infra cess on cars\UVs, brought in perquisite tax on employer's PF contribution

>INR1.5Lakhs, and taxed dividends@10% >INR10Lakhs. This RICH tax is expected

to fund the BHARAT construction and support agenda. The Economic Survey present

a road-map for future budgets to Tax the INR1Lakh cr subsidy paid to the Rich.

Outlook: Rate cut and consumption boom should drive earnings in FY17 and beyondAdvance tax numbers on March 15th will be a reality check for 4Q performance

In the interim, one could look at a Bounce-back that could become a fresh impulse

Our Multi-Cap recommended portfolio offers 5 large-cap stocks for SIP investors and

our MIDCAP recommended portfolio is now available ~15% off the peak. A good

Global Market

Index 29-Feb-16 MoM (%) YoY(%)

Sensex 23,002 -7.5 -21.7

Nifty 6,987 -7.6 -21.5

FTSE 6,097 0.2 -12.2

Dow 16,517 0.3 -8.9

Nasdaq 4,558 -1.2 -8.2

Hang Sang 19,112 -2.9 -23.0

Economic Pulse

Thought for the month

Key Highlights for the Month

Budget -BHARAT focus + Infra-push + Pay commission drivers

3.5% fiscal deficit = lower rates?

Taxing times for the Rich

March 2016

Key Indicators Current Month Change (%)

IIP -1.3% -

WPI -0.90% -

10 Year Yield 7.62% -2.06

USD/ INR 68.42 0.93

Crude ($) 35.97 3.54

Gold (10 gms) 29181 9.57

1

Ravi Shenoy

Vice President

time to Build a portfolio just as our government looks to Build a strong Bharat.


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Sectoral Highlights

On This Page

Equity Market Outlook

Markets & Our Recommendations

Equity Market Outlook

√ Nifty ended the month of February with a mammoth loss of 7.62% as it

shred around 577 points. Nifty drifted lower from the very beginning of

the month but saw a ‘Bullish Harami’ formation at the middle of the

month. The pattern remained intact despite the event volatility & defined

the consolidation range of 6850-7250.

√ Relative rotation study of the Global markets saw Nifty moving from the

underperforming to the neutral zone. USDINR has approached the upper

extreme of the ‘Upward Sloping Channel’ which also coincides with the

2013 extreme & is emerging as an inflection zone. A price confirmation

could push the pair towards the lower extreme of the pattern which could

activate the inverse correlation effect on the Nifty.

√ On the weekly scale sustaining 'Bullish Harami' pattern despite the event

volatility coupled with Z score being at the lower extreme raises the odds

in favour of the bulls. But the big move would kick-in only post cross over

of 7250. Till then we may see a time correction with upper bound at 7250

and lower bound at the recent monthly low around 6850. In case of a

close below 6850 would void the set-up and could extend the drift.

√ Neutral set of cues were seen from open interest actively in stock futures,

which saw lack of carry forward, while short hedges got carried forward.

Option writers seem too aggressive keeping the 7000 strike ( at the money)

highly congested. Option indicated immediate range of 6800-7200 also

coincides with consolidating range.

√ Amongst sectors energy remains firm within the outperforming zone while

realty on the other hand has evidence of further deterioration. Rest all the

major sectors still remain in the neutral zone awaiting a directional confir-

mation.

Technical Outlook

Energy Positive HPCL Buy / 688

Midcap Neutral Pidilite Buy / 586

IT Neutral Infy Buy / 1084

NBFC Neutral HDFC Buy / 1060

Sector Our Views Top Pick Recommendation/CMP

Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,

USDINR

Nifty Weekly

NIFTY Z-Score

March 2016

2

Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-March2016.pdf

Data as on 29th February 201


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On This Page

Derivatives Market Outlook

Commodities Market Outlook

Markets & Our Recommendations

Derivatives Market Outlook

√ Rollovers for Stock futures were below average. But there was shedding seen in open interest which neutralizes directional bias

Sector Rollovers: Key notables: Among sectors Two Wheelers ( Bajaj-Auto and

Heromotoco) saw Short covering, Cement, Metal, Telecom see biggest unwinding

√√√√√ Banks , Auto Ancillary and Engineering stocks saw carried forward shorts

Following are the sectors that saw shorts getting built-up for most part of themonth but we did not see enough carry forward resulting into unwinding

√√√√√ PSU Banks, Metal & NBFC- Unwinding

√√√√√ Pharma, Power & Realty and Telecom : Mix of Short and Unwinding

SECTORS OI Nifty- Call Ratio Spread

Actionable

Buy Mar 7400 CE 1 Lot

Sell Mar 7700 CE 2 Lots

√ Rollovers for the February expiry were more or less inline with average, however the open interest was dow

expiry over expiry. This reduced directional convictio

of the market pre-budget.

√ Lower end 7200 and 7000 Puts remains strong sup port

√ In case of up move, Volatility Index is expected tofurther cool-off. To take advantage of falling volatility

Call Ratio Spread is recommended

Commodities Market Outlook

√ Oil prices ended nearly flat in February but saw extremely choppy moves with prices touching almost $26 before recovering by the end of the

month as slowdown in US output coupled with talks about an output freeze by major producers helped. US oil output continues to dip, albeit

at a slower pace but a continuing decline in the oil rig count is raising hopes among the bulls.

√ U.S. shale oil production is expected to fall for an eighth straight month in March with output set to fall by nearly 93,000 bpd to 4.92 million

North Dakota's oil output fell nearly 3% in December, the first drop in three months signaling that producers may have finally begun to curboutput. OPEC output also fell 0.8% m/m from the January's near record levels to 32.37 mbpd in February.

√ The major part of the recent rebound was also fueled by the decision by Saudi, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela to freeze output at January levels

However, the success of this deal is largely contingent on Iran and Iraq supporting it as they are the ones with the highest incrementa

production growth at this juncture.On the inventory side, US crude oil inventories are at a record 507.6 million barrels while product stocks at

Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA) hub remain at record highs. The inventory overhang is the biggest risk to price gains from here

√ Demand outlook meanwhile looks cloudy as Asian oil demand was lower 0.6% m/m in January .While Chinese demand was strong in 2015

the strength is unlikely to be the same this year with GDP and manufacturing activity slowing.

√ Looking ahead, even as the market action in oil has turned increasingly choppy, signs are that market has established a near term bottom and

we could see some more gains in the coming month.

Crude Oil

March 2016

3

Target Profit: 14000

Stop Loss: 4600


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BUY

HPCL

CMP*: INR 688

Target: INR 1299

√ Post de-regulation and sharp drop in crude prices, we expect marketing division profit

ability to grow rapidly and hence a higher valuation for HPCL.

√ Of the three OMCs, HPCL's earnings are more sensitive to a change in the marketing

margin-given its higher ratio of marketing-to-refining volume.

√ An INR0.5/ltr increase in diesel marketing margin increases HPCL's FY16E EPS by 32%

Hence, it would be the largest beneficiary of higher auto fuel margins.

√ We value HPCL at 5.5x for refining and 8x for marketing for a fair value of INR1,299.

On This Page

Large Cap Investment Ideas

Mid Cap Investment Idea

Must Act

Large Cap Investment Ideas

√ Bajaj Finance, a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv, is one of the largest consumer durable

financier in the country, and amongst the largest two wheeler and personal loans lende

√ We believe the company continues to increase its market share in consumer business,

it has almost monopoly in some of the business like lifestyle financing.

√ We raise FY17/18 PAT by 8% each on the back of strong growth momentum.

√ Maintain Buy rating with a target price of INR 7,194.BUY

Bajaj Finance

CMP*: INR 5932

Target: INR 7194

√ Indiabulls Housing Finance is the fourth largest housing finance company in India with

AUM of INR522b.

√ Market share gains will drive AUM growth of 24% CAGR for the next three years.

√ IHFL is the lowest levered HFCs (4.3x) and this will support growth without equity

dilution. Asset quality trend is likely to remain stable.

√ De-risked business model, good profitability and high dividend yield warrant premium

√ We recommend to Buy with a target price of INR907.

Indiabulls Housing Finance

CMP*: INR 575

Target: INR 907

BUY

Mid Cap Investment Ideas

√ Engineers India (EIL), a PSU, is the O&G consultant and executor for O&G projects for

ONGC, OIL, IOC, BPCL and HPCL.

√ Reduction in under-recovery for the Oil and gas sector due to lower crude prices and

decontrol of diesel and petrol prices has helped improve improve Oil PSU cash flows and

boost order flows for EIL.

√ The Euro-VI norms will entail spend to raise fuel standards and could bring in INR5000-

8000cr consultancy orders and INR15000-20000 cr EPC orders for EIL.

√ We have a target of INR265 on the stock.


BUY

Engineers India

CMP*: INR 150

Target: INR 265

March 2016

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On This Page

MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap

Build a Portfolio

MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors

Scrip MBP Wtg.

Ultratech Cement 2769 11.9

Bajaj Finance 5932 11.6

Lupin 1755 11.2

Hero Motocorp 2500 10.8

HDFC 1060 10.2

BPCL 769 10

TVS Motors 268 4.4

Berger Paints 224 4.2

Indo Count Industries835 3.6

Suprajit Engineering 130 3.5

Finolex cables 238 3.5

Repco Home Finance 568 3.1

Eveready Industries 221 3.1

Dish TV 68 2.5

Engineers India 150 2.1

Cash 4.3

Total 100

Sectoral Allocation

March 2016

5

MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders

Scrip MBP Wtg.

Dish TV 68 10

Larsen & Toubro 1076 10

Sun Pharma 854 10

ICICI Bank 190 7.5

Axis Bank 376 5

HDFC 1060 5

Hindalco 69 5

HPCL 688 5

IOC 368 5

United Spirits 2651 5

SBI 159 5

Titan Industries 317 5

Ultratech Cement 2769 5

Zee Entertainment 372 5

Cash 25

Total 100

Sectoral Allocation

For Whom : Long Term Investors

Investment Duration : Few months to a year

Risk Profile : Moderate Investors

For Whom : Medium Term Investors

Investment Duration : Few months horizon

Risk Profile : Moderate Investors

Returns 3mth 6mth 12mth

Portfolio -8.8% -4.9% -7.0%

BSE 200 -10.9% -9.4% -18.9%

Scrip MBP Wtg. Sectoral Allocation

What’s In

For Whom : Long Term Investors

Investment Duration : Few months to a year

Risk Profile : Aggressive Investors

MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors

Bajaj Finance 5932 12.7

TVS Motors 268 12.3Berger Paints 224 11.6

Indocount Industries 835 10.2

Suprajit Engineering 130 9.9

Finolex cables 238 9.6

Repco Home Finance 568 8.8

Eveready Industries 221 8.8

Dish TV 68 7.0

Engineers India 150 6.0

Cash 3.1

Total 100

-- --

√ Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs

√ 60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio

√ 15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum

√ 5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also

√ 1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio

√ 10 stocks in the MICAPS space

√ Adheres to our QGLP philosophy

We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP

approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the

following characteristics:



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On This Page

MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

Managed Funds

March 2016

6

MOSt PMS Top Holdings in Value Strategy

√ Value Strategy: - The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on

investments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth

creation.

√ Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued

stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.

√ Money multiplied by 17.80 times in just 12 years.

√ Rs 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 17.80Crs vs. 6.91Crs in Nifty 50.

√ Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 24.92% vs. Nifty 50

returns of 16.11%, an outperformance of 8.81% (CAGR).

Value Strategy Scrips % Holdings

Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 12.52

Eicher Motors Ltd. 11.68

Bosch Ltd. 8.13

HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.85

Asian Paints Ltd. 7.14

Sector Allocation % Holdings

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 29.24

Banking & Finance 23.46

Pharmaceuticals 12.52

FMCG 7.14

Oil and Gas 6.62

NTDOP Strategy

√ NTDOP Strategy:The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes

which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly

invest in Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

√ he strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services

& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.

√ Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 15.43% annualized returns vs. 3.85% of

Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.58%.

Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

Bajaj Finance Ltd. 13.73


HPCL 10.76

Page Industries Ltd. 7.40

Bosch Ltd. 6.74

All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above arepost fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.





FMCG 16.87

Oil and Gas 10.76


Top Holdings in IOP Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

Bajaj Finance Ltd. 12.56

HPCL 10.42Lupin Ltd. 9.41


HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.66





Oil and Gas 10.42

Airlines 6.19

ndia Opportunity Portfolio Strategy

√ India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy: The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appre-

ciation by creating a focused portfolio of high growth stocks having the potential to grow

more than the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years across market capitalization and which are

available at reasonable market prices.

√ Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 10.51% annualized

returns vs. 6.31% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 4.20%.


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On This Page

Investment Produc

Tax Free Bonds

March 2016

7

Tax Free Bonds


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