moving ahead with aec: opportunities and challenges · 2015-03-18 · textile and garments marine...
TRANSCRIPT
Moving Ahead with AEC: Opportunities and Challenges
August 30, 2012
2
Population and Economic Dynamism Drive Opportunities within AEC
Rank Country Population (Million)
1 China 1,343
2 India 1,205
3 ASEAN 609
4 European Union 401
5 United States 314
Population
Rank CountryGDP
(Trillion)
GDP
Growth %
1 European Union 15.7 1.6
2 United States 15.3 1.7
3 China 11.4 9.2
4 India 4.5 7.2
5 Japan 4.5 -0.7
6 Germany 3.1 3.1
7 Russia 2.4 4.3
8 Brazil 2.3 2.7
9 United Kingdom 2.3 0.7
10 France 2.2 1.7
ASEAN 2.2 4.4
GDP (2011)
3
มูลค่าการส่งออกของไทย
28,62554,045
44,33432,49040,15132,791
22.6% 22.7% 24.3%25.5%21.3% 21.3%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6M
Mio.USD
ASEAN (9) China Japan United States Euro area (15 ) Others
ASEAN Markets are Increasingly Important for Thai Products
Source: Information Technology and Communication Center, Office of the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Commerce
4
Thailand: Intra-ASEAN Trading
สัดส่วนการส่งออกของประเทศไทยไปประเทศในกลุม่อาเซียน
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6M
%
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia Laos
Burma
Brunei
สัดส่วนการน าเข้าของประเทศไทยจากประเทศในกลุม่อาเซียน
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6M
%
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
Vietnam Laos
Cambodia Burma
Philippines
Brunei
Export from Thailand Import to Thailand
Source: Information Technology and Communication Center, Office of the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Commerce
5
ASEAN Countries’ Export Profile
Major Goods Export (Mio.USD)
1 2 3 4 5
Malaysia
Machinery and Transport Equipment Manufactured Goods
Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, etc.
Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats Chemicals
90,941 37,878 33,066 17,558 13,027
Singapore
Electronic, Electrical
Equipment Fuels
Chemicals & Chemical
Products Manufactured Goods Food & Beverages
189,577 80,117 43,842 14,632 6,743
Thailand
Electronic, Electrical
Equipment
Motor Cars, Parts and
Accessories
Precious Stones and
Jewellery Rubber Fuels
26,903 17,712 11,652 7,896 7,797
Indonesia Petroleum Products Palm Oil
Electronic, Electrical
Equipment Rubber Minerals
46,765 16,312 10,373 9,373 8,148
VietnamTextile and Garments Crude Oil Marine Products Computer and Parts Wood and Wood Products
15,794 4,905 4,644 3,421 3,372
Philippines
Electronic, Electrical
Equipment Special Transactions Transportation Minerals Construction Materials
25,440 6,580 3,944 2,278 1,206
CambodiaTextile and Garments Marine Products N.M. N.M. N.M.
4,330 120
Brunei DarussalamCrude Oil LNG Methanol N.M. N.M.
4,740 4,200 100
MyanmarNatural Gas Wood and Wood Products Matpe Textile and Garments Marine Products
2,447 580 441 368 205
Laos Wood and Wood Products Electricity Textile and Garments Minerals Coffee
164 140 138 110 36
6
AEC: No Longer About Taxes and Tariffs
Country 2010 2013 2015 2017
Free Movement of Goods: All Import Tariffs to 0% to 5%
Original ASEAN members
Normal ItemsSensitive Items
All Members 0%All Members 0%
New ASEAN members
Normal ItemsSensitive Items
All Members 5%Vietnam 5%
All Members 0%Laos Myanmar 5% Cambodia 5%
Free Movement of Services: Increasing Foreign Ownership
PIS*LogisticsOthersBanks
70%Same51%25%
70%
2012: All up to 20 bank branches
70%
Qualified ASEAN banks
7
Thailand as a Major Transportation Hub
Source : Bangkok PostSource: Italian-Thai Development Co., Ltd.
8
Logistics: A Lot of Work Needed
Country 2007 2010 2012
Singapore 1 2 1
Hong Kong, China 8 13 2
Finland 15 12 3
Germany 3 1 4
Netherlands 2 4 5
Denmark 13 16 6
Belgium 12 9 7
Japan 6 7 8
United States 14 15 9
United Kingdom 9 8 10
Malaysia 27 29 29
Thailand 31 35 38
Philippines 65 44 52
Vietnam 53 53 53
Indonesia 43 75 59
Cambodia 81 129 101
Lao PDR 117 118 109
Myanmar 147 133 129
Logistics Performance Index Ranking
Source : World Bank Source: The National Economic and Social Development Board
Logistics Costs to GDP
5.87.1
4.9
7.2
5.2
7.2
7.3
3.1
6.6
2.5
6.7
2.7
6
1.6
1.4 1.31.3
8.2
0.4
0.30.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Thailand United
States
Thailand United
States
Thailand United
States
Thailand
2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
port
ion to G
DP
(%
)
Transportation Cost Inventory Holding Cost Logistic Administration Cost
9
Road-based Logistics is Not Going to Work
Transport of Thailand as of 2010
Source: Ministry of Transport Source : World Bank
Road
Rail
Coast
Ship
Plane
10
Country 2011-2012 2010-2011
Finland 1 1
Sweden 2 2
Switzerland 3 4
Singapore 4 5
Belgium 5 7
Denmark 6 3
Germany 7 19
Netherlands 8 10
Iceland 9 6
Taiwan,China 10 11
Malaysia 38 49
Brunei Darussalam 61 64
Thailand 62 59
Indonesia 69 66
Philippines 71 73
Vietnam 103 93
Cambodia 120 122
Higher Education and Training
2011-2012 rankings
Training Quality and English Proficiency
EF English Proficiency Index 2011 In Asia *
Source : World Economic Forum (WEF)
* Product of EF Education First, a global language training company, based on the results of over 2 million test takers from non-native English-speaking countries
Thailand
Source : World Economic Forum (WEF)
11
Increasing Obsession with College Degrees?
Source: Office of The Education Council, Ministry of Education
Graduates in 1997-2009
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Person
Vocational Certificate
Bachelor's Degree
12
Thai Banks Stand Ready to Assist
13
ASEAN Banks Across AEC
14
Concluding Thoughts
AEC2015 is an important milestone within ASEAN community, but it is not going to bring about major shift in how countries in the region connect with one another
For Thailand, the opening up and accelerating developmental pace of the “continental ASEAN” might be a much more important event in terms of national priority
Key challenges remain for Thailand, specifically logistics and education
Logistics are being discussed as part of various mega-project initiatives, but not the latter
Thai banks are well placed to service fellow Thai businesses, more for the “continental ASEAN” than the “islander ASEAN”