Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus

Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns

Susi Moser (ESIG)

WCIAS Strategy

• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science

• Developing integrating methodology

• Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece

• Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally

Overview

• Decision-making in the WCAI

– An Evolutionary Perspective

• Moving Toward Decision-Making as the Central Focus

• DUST

• Future Directions

Evolutionary Perspective

• Intentions: – Produce science of high societal value– Make uncertainties in weather/climate

assessments more transparent to decision-makers (quantify, characterize, communicate)

– Assess the feasibility of an end-to-end characterization of uncertainty (i.e., from global climate model to decision-making)

• From providing decision support to also examining the decision process…

Weather Extremes in Aviation

Information need

Safetycontrol

Extremes statistics

California Water Resources Project

Climate & Climate Change

Physical Hydrology

Watershed Management

Integrated Decision Support

Decisions•Sykes Reservoir•FERC Relicensing•Conjunctive Use•System Operations

Socio-Economics

Decision-Makers•CALFED•State Assembly•Cal. Water Dept.•Others

EcosystemServices

Credibility

Legitimacy

Relevance

Local needs

Political and economic constraints

Weather and climate research (NCAR, NOAA, Universities)

Rules Regulations Advice Conditional $

State and Regional flood management agencies

Local floodplain administration

Federal agencies (e.g., FEMA, NFIP, NWS,

Army Corps)

Private sector consultants

Scientific & Technical Information

Front Range Flood Management

Wildfire Project

Homeowners&

Local planners

CLIMATEVARIABILITY

• drought• “fire-weather”

Informationneeds?

Codechanges

Decision Model

WILDFIRE INITIATIVE

Perception of risk and uncertainty?Information needs?

Retrofittingdecisions

Decision-Making(Assessment of needs, decision entry points,

institutional constraints,politics etc.)

Mitigation

Adaptation

Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus

For WCIAS projects where decision-making matters….

DUST – The Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool

• Purpose– Integrative link between physical sciences,

uncertainty analyses, and decision- and policy-making

– Procedure to identify where and how science can most effectively support decision-making

– Systematic approach to determining where and when uncertainty matters

DUST – A stepwise, iterative attempt at improving the science/decision-maker interaction

• Premises– Decision-maker and decision-making are central – Scientific information can be an important input into decision-

making– No assumption about best way to make decisions under

conditions of uncertainty – No preference for a “top-down” or “bottom-up” approach to

assessments

• Objectives– For all kinds of decisions – For a variety of decision-making contexts – For a range of decision-makers

– Applicable at a variety of scales

Step 1: Identify the stage in the decision process where climate science can enter

Step 2: Ensure that scientific input is useful, credible, and legitimate

(A) Science Decision-making

(B) Science Decision-makingCredibility

Legitimacy

Usefulness- Relevance

- Compatibility- Accessibility- Receptivity

Step 3: Identify the type of decision problem decision-makers face

OPTIMIZATION – EVALUATION – ROBUST ADAPTIVE PLANNING

Step 4: Identify the specific decision challenge

A three-dimensional typology of climate-sensitive decisions- Optimization/Evaluation- Near-/Long-term - One-time/Sequential

Step 5: Identify necessary uncertainty analyses

Step 6: Conduct identified uncertainty analyses

Step 7: Communicate uncertainties back to the decision-maker

• Familiarity

• Format• Link back to decision

problem• Explanation of

uncertainties

CoordinationKeep others informed of whatthey need to know, without

overburdening them with unnecessary information

InformationWho needs to know what

ConfirmationMake sure they right

people have the information they need

TimelinessAvoid confusion by delivering message/

data on time

AccuracyWrong information

may be worse than none at all

Good Communication

Expected Outcomes

• Streamlining and prioritization of uncertainty assessment

• Greater transparency and awareness

• Educational for scientists (and beginning scholars, students of applied science)

• Educational for decision-makers

• Boundary object Credibility

Legitimacy

Relevance

Using DUST to Move Forward…

• DUST: educational, screening tool, a heuristic

• Informs the interpretation of, and learning from, past projects

• Informs the development of future research projects

Future Directions• NCAR-RISA Collaboration

– Workshop to establish linkages in FY05

• Communication of Uncertainty to Decision-Makers– Collaboration with DMUU at RAND Corp.

• Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level rise– Project development during early FY05– Comparative case study approach – Multi-disciplinary collaboration

• Decision-making at the Climate–Health Interface– Heat waves– Air quality management

• Scales of decision-making- Carbon flux- Water resource management

• Societal use of weather information