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  • 8/2/2019 Mphasis Result Updated

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1,367 1,314 4.1 1,233 10.8EBITDA 252 235 7.3 257 (2.0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 18.4 17.9 55bp 20.9 (242)bp

    Reported PAT 185 183 0.8 227 (18.5)Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * adjusted for one offs and reversals

    For 1QFY2012, MphasiS results came in below our as well as street expectations

    on all fronts. The companys USD revenue declined on a qoq basis due to ramp

    down in projects from HP channel and annual shutdown in developed economies

    because of the holiday season. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 10x FY2013E

    EPS of `39.2 with a strong cash position of `2,182cr, which warrants limited

    downside. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: MphasiS reported revenue of US$266mn, down 3.8% qoq.In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,367cr, up 4.1% qoq. During the quarter,

    revenue from the direct channel increased by 16.3% qoq (8.8% qoq growth

    excluding impact of INR depreciation), while revenue from HP channel declined

    by 0.3% qoq (4.9% qoq decline excluding impact of INR depreciation). EBITDA

    margin of the company expanded by 55bp qoq to 18.4%, aided by INR

    depreciation and improvement in utilization level across all its business segments.

    PAT came in at `185cr, almost flat qoq.

    Outlook and valuation: MphasiS revenue has been continuously getting hurt dueto sluggish performance of HP-ES business. Also HPs long-term direction towardshaving six worldwide offshore development centers, including India, may pose a

    threat to MphasiS volumes. Going forward, management expects the direct

    channel (42% to revenue) and HP non-enterprise solution business (which is

    currently ~5% of revenue from HP channel) to drive growth, whereas HP-ES

    business is expected to remain sluggish. Also, business wise, we expect ITO to

    continue to be the possible growth driver for the company. We expect a 7.6%

    revenue CAGR for MphasiS over FY2011-13E, considering that business from HP

    is sluggish and the overall macro environment is posing a high amount of

    uncertainty towards client budgets for the next year and even tier-I companies are

    facing headwinds because of this. Also, in our view, there is a good possibility

    that the company may use its cash pile of `2,182cr to go for a buy-back.We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `412.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E Oct. (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENet sales 4,271 5,036 5,098 5,542 5,904% chg 124.0 17.9 1.2 8.7 6.5

    Net profit 916 1,091 822 785 821% chg 220.0 19.0 (24.6) (4.6) 4.7

    EBITDA margin (%) 26.6 25.1 19.3 19.2 18.3

    EPS (`) 43.4 52.0 39.2 37.4 39.2P/E (x) 9.0 7.5 10.0 10.5 10.0

    P/BV (x) 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5

    RoE (%) 39.1 33.1 21.1 16.6 15.0

    RoCE (%) 39.7 32.9 19.8 17.4 15.3

    EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9

    EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 5.2 6.5 5.7 5.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `392

    Target Price `412

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 60.5

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.7

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.2

    Indian Public / Others 12.5

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 4.7 (4.4) 104.9

    Mphasis 24.6 (13.5) 137.1

    MPHL@IN

    Face Value (`)

    BSE Sensex

    Nifty

    Reuters Code

    8,217

    0.9

    IT

    Avg. Daily Volume

    Market Cap (`cr)

    Beta

    52 Week High / Low

    10

    17,637

    5,359

    MBFL.BO

    488/277

    75,099

    Ankita Somani022-39357800 Ext: [email protected]

    MphasiSPerformance highlights

    1QFY2012 Result Update | IT

    March 2, 2012

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

    March 2, 2012 2

    Exhibit 1:1QFY2012 reported performance (Consolidated)

    (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) FY2011 FY2010 % chg (yoy)Net revenue 1,367 1,314 4.1 1,233 10.8 5,098 5,036 1.2Cost of revenue 1,000 963 3.8 877 14.0 3,698 3,352 10.3Gross profit 368 351 4.7 357 3.1 1,400 1,684 (16.9)

    SG&A expenses 116 116 (0.5) 99 16.4 416 419 (0.9)

    EBITDA 252 235 7.3 257 (2.0) 985 1,265 (22.1)Dep. and amortization 47 41 13.0 36 30.4 155 164 (5.3)

    EBIT 205 194 6.1 221 (7.3) 830 1,101 (24.6)

    Interest income (2) (2) - (2) 1

    Other income 36 50 35 177 108

    PBT 239 242 (1.0) 256 (6.6) 1,005 1,210 (16.9)

    Income tax 54 58 (6.5) 30 84.4 183 119 53.3

    PAT 185 183 0.8 227 (18.5) 822 1,091 (24.6)EPS 8.8 8.7 1.0 10.8 (18.8) 39.2 52.0 (24.7)

    EBITDA margin (%) 18.4 17.9 55bp 20.9 (242)bp 19.3 25.1 (580)bp

    EBIT margin (%) 15.0 14.7 28bp 18.0 (293)bp 16.3 21.9 (559)bp

    PAT margin (%) 13.2 13.4 (28)bp 17.9 (471)bp 16.1 21.7 (553)bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:1QFY2012: Actual vs. Angel estimates

    (` cr) Actual Estimate % VarNet sales 1,367 1,400 (2.3)EBITDA margin (%) 18.4 21.5 (310)bpPAT 185 214 (13.8)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Weak performance

    MphasiS reported a muted performance for 1QFY2012. USD revenue came in at

    US$266mn, down 3.8% qoq. The companys revenue was impacted due to annual

    shut down at HP and ramp down in few projects in HP channel. In INR terms,

    revenue came in at `1,367cr, up 4.1% qoq.

    During the quarter, revenue from the direct channel increased by 16.3% qoq (8.8%

    qoq growth excluding impact of INR depreciation) with revenue at `581cr, aided

    by higher volumes from infrastructure management services. Revenue from HP

    channel declined by 0.3% qoq (4.9% qoq decline excluding impact of INR

    depreciation) due to annual shutdown at HP and ramp down in certain projects

    from HP channel.

    Service vertical wise, infrastructure management and transaction processing

    emerged as the companys primary growth drivers by posting 11.9% and 11.7%

    growth qoq, respectively. Revenue from knowledge processes, application

    development and application maintenance grew by 7.7%, 4.6% and 1.8% qoq,

    respectively. However, revenue from customer service and technical helpdesk

    declined by 3.3% and 16.1% qoq, respectively.

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

    March 2, 2012 3

    Exhibit 3:Service-wise performance

    Service type (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 % chg qoq % chg yoy Application maintenance 445 437 455 1.8 (2.2)

    Application development 390 373 321 4.6 21Customer service 76 79 63 (3.3) 21.0

    Service/Technical help desk 52 62 47 (16.1) 12.5

    Transaction processing 70 63 74 11.7 (4.9)

    Infrastructure management 335 299 245 11.9 36.8

    Knowledge processes 8 8 12 7.7 (28.2)

    License income 16 4 0 328.9

    Contribution to revenue (%) chg qoq (bp) chg yoy (bp) Application maintenance 32.0 33.0 37.4 (105) (547)

    Application development 28.0 28.1 26.4 (15) 157

    Customer service 5.5 5.9 5.2 (48) 29

    Service/Technical help desk 3.8 4.7 3.8 (95) (7)

    Transaction processing 5.1 4.8 6.1 30 (103)

    Infrastructure management 24.0 22.6 20.1 144 391

    Knowledge processes 0.6 0.6 1.0 1 (36)

    License income 1.2 0.3 0.0 88 115

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Industry vertical wise, MphasiS posted whopping growth of 8.3% and 7.4% qoq in

    revenue from the IT, communication and entertainment (contributing 27.2% to

    revenue) and insurance (contributing 11.4% to revenue) verticals to `378cr and

    `158cr, respectively.

    Exhibit 4:Vertical-wise performance

    Vertical (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 % chg qoq % chg yoyBanking and capital markets 357 341 314 4.5 13.8

    Insurance 158 147 116 7.4 36.9

    IT, comm. and entertainment 378 349 340 8.3 11.4

    Emerging industries 500 486 447 2.7 11.6

    Contribution to revenue (%) chg qoq (bp) chg yoy (bp)Banking and capital markets 25.6 25.8 25.8 (15.9) (16.6)

    Insurance 11.4 11.1 9.5 23.4 185.4

    IT, comm. and entertainment 27.2 26.4 27.9 78.9 (76.8)

    Emerging industries 35.9 36.7 36.8 (86.4) (92.0)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    MphasiS again reported a 2.9% qoq decline in onsite pricing in its application

    services business to US$67/hr from US$69/hr due to reduction in revenue run rate

    from one of the top five clients, which is again expected to pace up from next

    quarter. Offshore pricing of application services increased to US$21/hr from

    US$20/hr. Pricing in the ITO business, onsite as well as offshore, was stable qoq at

    US$67/hr and US$21/hr, respectively. Pricing of BPO was stable at US$6/hr.

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 5:Segment-wise pricing

    Price movement (US$/hr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 % chg qoq % chg yoyAPOOnsite 67 69 72 (2.9) (6.9)Offshore 21 20 19 5.0 10.5

    ITOOnsite 67 67 67 0.0 0.0

    Offshore 21 21 19 0.0 10.5

    BPOOffshore 6 6 7 0.0 (14.3)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Client metrics

    MphasiS has been focusing on direct channel strategy to win clients. Overall, thecompany added 28 new clients in 1QFY2012 17 in the direct channel and 11 in

    HP channel. Vertical wise, two clients were added in the banking and capital

    market service industry, one in insurance, eight in IT, communication and

    entertainment and the rest 17 in emerging industries.

    MphasiS witnessed addition of one client each in the direct channel and HP

    channel in the over US$1mn category. Further, in the direct channel, two clients

    were added in the >US$10mn category and one in the >US$20mn category,

    respectively; however, HP channel witnessed reduction of one client each from the

    above-mentioned categories, respectively.

    Exhibit 6:Client concentration

    (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 % chg qoq % chg yoyTop client revenue 139.3 132.4 121.6 5.2 14.5

    % contribution 10 10 10

    Top-5 clients revenue 431.8 397.3 352.8 8.7 22.4

    % contribution 31 30 29

    Top-10 clients 612.9 582.6 535.2 5.2 14.5

    % contribution 44 44 44

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

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    Exhibit 7:HP and non-HP client breakup

    No. of clients 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 Addition (qoq) Addition (yoy)>US $1mn revenue 120 120 115 0 5Direct channel 41 42 37 (1) 4HP channel 79 78 78 1 1

    >US $5mn revenue 43 41 38 2 5Direct channel 15 13 10 2 5

    HP channel 28 28 28 0 0

    >US $10mn revenue 24 24 23 0 1Direct channel 9 9 9 0 0

    HP channel 15 15 14 0 1

    >US $20mn revenue 12 12 14 0 (2)Direct channel 4 4 3 0 1

    HP channel 8 8 11 0 (3)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Hiring muted

    During the quarter, MphasiS recorded net reduction in its employee base across all

    business segments, taking its total employee base to 38,798. Headcount of the

    application services, ITO and BPO business declined by 838, 453 and 322

    employees to 14,536, 7,811 and 14,951, respectively. Management indicated

    that from now on hiring would be considered as per the demand environment.

    Exhibit 8:Employee metrics

    No. of employees 1QFY12 4QFY11 1QFY11 Net add.(qoq) Net add.(yoy) Application services 14,536 15,374 15,332 (838) (796)

    Onsite 2,716 2,692 2,675 24 41

    Offshore 11,820 12,682 12,657 (862) (837)

    ITO services 7,811 8,264 8,604 (453) (793)

    Onsite 308 314 478 (6) (170)

    Offshore 7,503 7,950 8,126 (447) (623)

    BPO services 14,951 15,273 15,661 (322) (710)

    Onsite 121 141 192 (20) (71)

    Offshore 14,830 15,132 15,469 (302) (639)

    Sales and marketing 343 325 327 18 16

    General and administration 1,157 1,190 1,135 (33) 22

    Total 38,798 40,426 41,059 (1,628) (2,261)Source: Company, Angel Research

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

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    EBITDA margin expands

    MphasiS reported a 55bp expansion in its EBITDA margin to 18.4%. Operating

    margin of the company was aided by INR deprecation, improvement in utilization

    level across all its businesses and lower G&A expenses.

    Offshore utilization of the application services business increased to 74% from 72%

    in 4QFY2011; however, onsite utilization declined slightly to 91% from 92% in

    4QFY2011. Blended utilization of the application services business improved to

    77% from 76% in 4QFY2011. In the ITO business, onsite utilization declined

    drastically to 79% from 91% in 4QFY2011 due to ramp down in HP channel

    projects; however, offshore utilization improved to 81% from 80% in 4QFY2011.

    Blended utilization of ITO as well as BPO inched up to 81% and 71% from 80%

    and 70%, respectively.

    Exhibit 9:Segment-wise utilization

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Outlook and valuation

    MphasiS revenue has been continuously getting hurt due to sluggish performance

    of HP-ES business. Also HPs long-term direction towards having six worldwide

    offshore development centers, including India, may pose a threat to MphasiS

    volumes. Going forward, management expects the direct channel (42% to revenue)

    and HP non-enterprise solution business (which is currently ~5% of revenue fromthe HP channel) to drive growth, whereas HP-ES business is expected to remain

    sluggish.Also, business wise, we expect ITO to continue to be the possible growthdriver for the company. We expect a 7.6% revenue CAGR for MphasiS over

    FY2011-13E, considering that business from HP is sluggish and the overall macro

    environment is posing a high amount of uncertainty towards client budgets for the

    next year and even tier-I companies are facing headwinds because of this. Also, in

    our view, there is a good possibility that the company may use its cash pile of

    `2,182cr to go for a buy-back. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stockwith a target price of `412, valuing it at 10.5x FY2013E EPS.

    72

    76 76 76 77

    68

    73

    75

    80 81

    6968

    66

    7071

    64

    66

    68

    70

    72

    74

    76

    78

    80

    82

    1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

    (%)

    Application services ITO services BPO servics

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    March 2, 2012 7

    Exhibit 10:One-year forward P/E

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Key assumptions

    FY2012E FY2013ERevenue growth USD (%) - 8.1

    USD-INR rate (Realized) 49.7 49.0

    Revenue growth INR (%) 8.7 6.5

    EBITDA margin (%) 19.2 18.3

    Tax rate (%) 23.7 24.0

    EPS growth (%) (4.5) 4.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:Recommendation summary

    Company Reco CMP Tgt. price Upside Target FY2013E FY2013E FY2011-13E FY2013E FY2013E(`) (`) (%) P/E (x) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)

    HCL Tech Accumulate 480 520 8.2 13.0 17.5 12.0 22.1 20.9 23.1

    Hexaware Neutral 113 - - 11.0 19.0 12.2 79.4 25.4 22.0

    Infosys Accumulate 2,875 3,047 6.0 18.0 32.0 17.0 18.9 25.8 23.8

    Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 148 167 13.0 10.0 16.9 8.6 16.5 17.2 14.1

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 166 - - 10.0 15.4 10.2 19.9 19.5 16.9

    Mahindra Satyam Buy 69 87 26.7 11.0 16.0 8.5 38.4 12.6 14.4Mindtree Accumulate 465 502 8.1 10.0 14.7 9.2 42.1 20.3 17.4

    MphasiS Accumulate 392 412 5.1 10.5 18.3 10.0 - 15.3 15.0NIIT Buy 48 55 15.4 6.9 16.3 6.0 19.3 11.0 15.6

    Persistent Accumulate 310 332 7.3 9.0 23.0 8.9 0.1 19.4 14.3

    TCS Neutral 1,221 - - 19.5 29.9 18.9 20.6 32.1 33.3

    Tech Mahindra Buy 600 693 15.5 8.0 17.1 6.9 32.3 15.0 21.1

    Wipro Neutral 432 -- 15.3 19.7 15.6 13.1 15.3 20.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

    March 2, 2012 8

    Profit and Loss statement (Consolidated)

    Y/E Oct (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENet sales 4,271 5,036 5,098 5,542 5,904Cost of revenue 2,690 3,352 3,698 4,007 4,356% of net sales 63.0 66.6 72.5 72.3 73.8

    Gross profit 1,581 1,684 1,400 1,535 1,549

    % of net sales 37.0 33.4 27.5 27.7 26.2

    Selling and mktg. expenses 179 220 232 274 264

    % of net sales 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.5

    General and admin. exp. 266 199 184 199 207

    % of net sales 6.2 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.5

    Provision for doubtful debts 1 - - - -

    EBITDA 1,135 1,265 985 1,062 1,078% of net sales 26.6 25.1 19.3 19.2 18.3

    Dep. and amortization 202 164 155 189 198

    EBIT 933 1,101 830 873 880

    Interest income, net 3 1 (2) (2) -

    Other income, net 16 50 111 129 168

    Forex gain 29 58 66 29 32

    Profit before tax 980 1,210 1,005 1,028 1,081

    Provision for tax 64 119 183 244 259

    % of PBT 6.5 9.8 18.2 23.7 24.0

    PAT 916 1,091 822 785 821EPS (`) 43.4 52.0 39.2 37.4 39.2

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

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    Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

    Y/E Oct. (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013EPre tax profit from operations 965 1,160 894 900 912

    Depreciation 202 164 155 189 198Pre tax cash from operations 1,167 1,324 1,049 1,088 1,110

    Other income/prior period ad 16 50 111 129 168

    Net cash from operations 1,183 1,374 1,160 1,217 1,278

    Tax (64) (119) (183) (244) (259)

    Cash profits 1,118 1,254 977 973 1,019(Inc)/Dec in

    Current assets (414) (512) (129) (200) (79)

    Current liabilities 322 237 254 (257) (67)

    Net trade working capital (91) (275) 125 (457) (146)

    Cashflow from operating actv. 1,027 979 1,102 517 873(Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (118) (86) (198) (185) (175)

    (Inc)/Dec in intangibles 1 (94) (481) - -

    (Inc)/Dec in deferred tax liab. (35) (6) (20) 10 (13)

    (Inc)/Dec in investments (761) (699) (317) (151) (273)

    Cashflow from investing actv. (913) (884) (1,016) (325) (461)Inc/(Dec) in debt (2) 42 247 (6) -

    Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium 79 (39) (123) 151 -

    Dividends 86 98 98 98 98

    Cashflow from financing actv. (9) (95) 26 47 (98)Cash generated/(utilized) 105 (0) 111 239 314Cash at start of the year 73 179 178 290 528

    Cash at end of the year 179 178 290 528 842

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    MphasiS| 1QFY2012 Result Update

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    Key ratios

    Y/E Oct. FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 9.0 7.5 10.0 10.5 10.0

    P/CEPS 7.3 6.6 8.4 8.4 8.1

    P/BVPS 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5

    Dividend yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0

    EV/Sales 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9

    EV/EBITDA 6.4 5.2 6.5 5.7 5.1

    EV/Total assets 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.0

    Per share data (`)EPS 43.4 52.0 39.2 37.4 39.2

    Cash EPS 53.4 59.8 46.6 46.4 48.6

    Dividend 3.5 4.0 6.5 4.0 4.0

    Book value 111.9 157.4 186.1 226.0 260.5

    Dupont analysisTax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

    Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

    EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

    Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0

    Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

    Operating ROE 39.1 33.1 21.1 16.6 15.0

    Return ratios (%)RoCE (pre-tax) 39.7 32.9 19.8 17.4 15.3

    Angel RoIC 88.8 91.3 66.5 52.0 48.RoE 39.1 33.1 21.1 16.6 15.0

    Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1

    Receivables days 77 70 87 86 86

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    March 2 2012 12

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

    DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement MphasiS

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors