mpob term paper 2003

8/7/2019 MPOB term paper 2003

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SUBMITTED TO:-

MISS MALLIKA RANI

(M.P.O.B) SUBMITTED BY:-

ROLL NO :- A-59

SECTION :- R1003

REG. NO :- 11011219


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CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITION

OBJECTIVES

HISTORY OF RECESSION

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

REVIEW OF LITERATURECONCLUSION


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RECESSION

INTRODUCTION

People in industrialized nations are far wealthier than people

living in less developed countries. But still these wealthier

nations suffer most during the slowdown period. There was

boom in 2007 and then the slowdown started showing its

presence prominently in the year 2008. Before economies

could take it seriously, there was recession. This is whatexplained by Business Cycle which says everything which goes

up is bound to come down. All these activities are studied

under macroeconomics which is concerned with the behavior of

economy as a whole. This is not the first time world economies

are facing slowdown, there has been 5 recessions in the last 30

years around the globe which includes the most remembered

Great Depression. Inflation, Employment Cuts, Price hike, low

demand etc is all characteristics of slowing down of theeconomy. The main problem faced by the countries is not

nuclear threat but high inflation rates. Before starting with the

current slowdown of the world economies, lets have a look at

the scenarios of 1980s and 1990-91 recessions. Lets observe

the policy mix taken by the economies like US and Europeans

at such situation.

DEFINITION


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So what is a recession?

A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product(GDP) growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year. Arecession is also preceded by several quarters of slowing down.

OBJECTIVES

There are some of the important objectives of the study-

The first objective of the study is to know about the

recession and how it affects the business and economy of

any country.

The second objective is to analyze the main causes of

recession.

The third objective is to get some innovative ideas and

strategies to bear the recession.

HISTORY


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The 1980s Recession and RecoveryEconomic policies in the united states in the early 1980s,departed radically from the policies of the previous two decades.

First, tight monetary policy was implemented at the end of 1979

to fight an inflation rate and then, in 1981, an expansionary fiscal

policy was put in place of tax cuts and increased defense

spending.

In 1973, the US and rest of the world were hit by first oil shock, in

which the oil exporting countries more than doubled the price of

oil. This led to rising inflation which was extremely unpopular. In

October 1979, the Fed acted, turning monetary policy in a highly

restrictive direction. The monetary squeeze was tightening in the

first half of 1980, at which point the economy went into a mini

recession. The reason for the sharp decline on the activity was

tight money because inflation was still above 10% and money

stock was growing at only 5.1% in 1981, the real money supply

was falling. With a policy mix of easy fiscal and tight monetary

policies, it was found out a rise in interest rate was expected. With

investment subsidies increased, investment increased with

interest rates. This the fiscal expansion of 1984 and 1985 pushed

the recovery of the economy forward.

The Recession of 1990 91The policy mix in early 1980s featured highly expansionary fiscal

policy and tight money. The tight money succeeded in reducing

the inflation of late 1970s and very early 1980s, at the expense

of serious recession. Expansionary fiscal policies then drove a

recovery during which the real interest rates increased sharply. By

middle of 1990 it was clear that the economy was heading for the

recession.


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The price of oil jumped and for a time the Fed was faced with the

quandary of deciding whether to keep monetary policy tight while

holding interest rates up, in order to fight inflation, or pursue an

expansionary policy in order to fight the recession. The fiscal

policy was immobilized because the budget deficit was already

large and was expected to rise and thus no one was enthusiastic

about increasing it. From end of 1990, Fed began to cut interest

rates aggressively and the economy showed signs of recovery in

second quarter of 1991 but faltered in fourth quarter.Thus, Fed cut

the interest rate very sharply at the end of 1991. In retrospect,

this was sufficient to ward off a recession.

The Recession of 2008 onwardsThe Credit Crisis began in August 2007, when interbank lending

markets in the US, UK and Europe began to seize up. These

markets had rarely received much public attention, and it was not

immediately obvious why this should have happened. But loans on

interbank markets, from overnight to several months, were not

just important in keeping the flow of credit circulating amongst

banks, and hence amongst almost all economic agents in a

market system, they were made without collateral being

necessary, and were increasingly important to the banking model

developing across market economies. That model relied to an

increasing extent on wholesale markets for supplies of capital,

rather than on the deposits of individuals or companies. At the

same time the degree of leveraging on capital was also

increasing. So with larger supplies of credit and greater leveraging

higher profits were possible. As were higher risks, as banks sought

out increasing rates of return to satisfy their shareholders and

those of their employees whose wages and bonuses were linked to

levels of business or profits. But the increasing levels of risk

seemed manageable by the device of securitisation, which

appeared to allow the securitising bank to simultaneously sell on


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the risk and replenish its capital. When a rapidly deflating housing

market bubble in the USA exposed weaknesses in this banking

model, and similar bubbles in Ireland, the UK, Australia and Spain

also began deflating, doubts about the location and value of

securitised assets led eventually to an evaporation of trust

between first banks, and then other financial and non-financial

companies.

By the autumn of 2008 the lack of trust in the financial sector was

sufficiently great to almost completely seize up credit flows and

threaten the stability of the world financial system. The financial

system was in effect broken, and by October 2008 a coordinatedaction by large numbers of central banks and countries was

needed to stabilise it. This involved giving widespread promises of

state protection to depositors, large injections of capital to banks,

vast liquidity supplies to gummed-up financial market and

increasing guarantees for all sorts of short term bond issues. Most

recently the Crisis moved into the realm of sovereign default, as

countries such Hungary and Ukraine struggle to refinance foreign

currency loans, bringing in international agencies such as the IMFand the World Bank to provide assistance. At the same time the

Credit Crisis has spawned an international economic downturn,

and in some cases recession, the depth and severity of which

cannot at the moment be estimated. All of these responses have

public finance consequences tax revenues and expenditures

and risk and uncertainty consequences that are still growing and

evolving.Global economic meltdown has affected almost all

countries. Strongest of American, European and Japanesecompanies are facing severe crisis of liquidity and credit. India is

not insulated, either. However, Indias cautious approach towards

reforms has saved it from possibly disastrous implications. The

truth is, Indian economy is also facing a kind of slowdown. The

prime reason being, world trade does not functions in isolation. All

the economies are interlinked to each other and any major

fluctuation in trade balance and economic conditions causes


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numerous problems for all other economies.

The causes of recession on the Indian

Economy are following

* The recession when occurs tighten the growth and development

of the stock market by tightening the Indian economy.

* Jobless and Unemployed Students When there is a slightly

increase in the unemployment level and jobless persons living inthe society then definitely we can judge that is a period of

recession. This is really bad for the Indian economy as resists the

National growth of country.

* Inflation of products and services when the prices of production

or manufacturing of goods and services along with various

commodities are increased and the fossil fuels, petroleum also

gaining flames then it will automatically resists growth of variousindustrial sectors.

* Decrease in prices of stocks As mentioned above recession

have big impact on the Indian economy. Therefore, the prices of

various stocks associated with the field where the recession has

take place has decreased.

* Decrease in prices of property It also decreases the price ofproperty because due to lack on financial funds or capital funds no

one is interested in purchasing any additional property or any

other agricultural land.

* Decrease in GDP As GDP means Gross Domestic Production. It

is associated with the development and production of various

products and services in various sectors.


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* High supply and Low demand with the recession, there is

random decrease in the demand of an particular product as the

supply is increasing at a rapid rate. This is really bad for the point

view of entrepreneur as it will make high loss of an industry or an

company.

* Fall of companies The sales of majority of company decreases

which in turn decrease their profit statistics as compare to the

previous years and finally lead to the fall of the company.

* No empty vaccines for fresher The pass outs from various

colleges or universities are getting jobs as jobs are given on the

basis of experience, therefore fresher don't have a job for

them. for example - In 2009 when the information technology

sector is declining there is also a decrease in job vaccines which

leads the more unemployment.

* Debit their savings when the people debited their savings or

the investments in order to fulfill their day to day needs and

requirements then they definitely matured their saving funds.

* Kept under debt The lower sections of society who have taken

loans or other financial fund from any organization will have in

trouble. The survival for them is very difficult as they have a

miserable condition.


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There are following points comes under research methodology-

Research design

This research is basically exploratory research. This

research is also called as formulative research. The

objective of this research is to gain familiarity with a

phenomenon or to achieve new insights into it.

Data collection method

In this research data is mainly collected through

secondary sources. Secondary sources are like books,

newspaper, journals, magazines and internet.


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REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The Global Economy: Fed Leans TowardNew Aid to Economy.

Abstract (Summary)

Purpose: The purpose of reading the officials thought it unlikely

the U.S. economy would fall into recession again, but several

were concerned that growth would not be strong enough to

reduce unemployment for some time. Since the Federal Open

Market Committee meeting on Sept. 21, data has continued to

paint the picture of a sluggish economy

Author(s):

Luca DiLeo


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Economy sheds more jobs, but signs ofrecovery multiply

Abstract (Summary)

Expectations for their own industries are also downbeat, withabout 28 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement in themonths ahead, down from 43 percent last quarter. SinceCongress has little appetite to spend more to aid the economy,the focus is now on the Federal Reserve.

Author(s):

Kevin G.Hall

In times of recession, think big, but build

small

Abstract (Summary)If the author could go back to the beginning, he would invest only during recessions, when almosteverything costs 50% to 90% less than it does during boom times. This would be good for him as aninvestor, and the economy would benefit from the investment. Not everyone is an entrepreneur. If youwant to find out if you have what it takes, save your experiments for evenings and weekends. If youhave a secure job, now is certainly not the time to hand in your notice unless you're absolutely certainthat you have a brilliant idea.

Autho

r(s):

Richard

Branson


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If You Build It ...; Now's the time to invest in

infrastructure.

Abstract (Summary)

Due to the recession, construction materials are cheap.Unemployment in the construction sector is at 17 percent--andthat doesn't even count the construction workers who've givenup looking for jobs.

Autho

r(s):

Ezra

Klein


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U.S. News: Recession-Hit Areas Lag for Years

Afterward

Abstract (Summary)

In regions that suffered disproportionately in the recession ofthe early 1980s, for example, average earnings have risen at aquarter of the rate of the rest of the U.S. Employment grewmore slowly, young people left the region, population growthslowed and, as a result, demand for housing weakened.

Autho

r(s):

Sara

Murray


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Where the Jobs Are; Hint: they're not where

the workers are.

Abstract (Summary)Answering this question is the key to American prosperity overthe next decade. Some conservatives squawk thatunemployment isn't budging from 9.5 percent because ofhigher-than-usual benefits being paid out to jobless workers, orthe fact that wages haven't come down as much as they shouldhave, given how many people are out of work.

Autho

r(s):

Rana

Foroohar

Home help in India


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Abstract (Summary)

In November 2008. the company received approval from India's

Directorate General of Civil Aviation for its commercial MRO

services in Hosur, a city in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.

That made it die first die country's first independent airline

MRO, and allowed it to perform services such as line and base

maintenance, aircraft painting, structural repairs, cabin

upgrades, and avionic upgrades. Air Works also offers

component repairs and spare parts sourcing

Autho

r(s):

Siva

Govindasamy

Influencing India

Abstract (Summary)

While the world enters the throes of one of the worst recessions

in modern history, at least one nation is bucking the trend --

India, with a projected growth rate of 6.9%. Consumer

confidence isn't dented either, with India topping the Nielsen


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Global Consumer Confidence Index. Many global brands in the

past have entered India by cloning their international

strategies. At Law & Kenneth, the inspiration to partner

marketers and build brands stems from absorbing the many

expressions that drive people. Brands that give wings to a

better life find success. Indian FMCG giants such as ITC have

built powerful brands by continuously tapping into this intrinsic

Indian insight

Autho

r(s):

Anil

Nair

Message from Delhi: don't cut too soon

Abstract (Summary)

In India we follow this extremely closely and with concern. Ouranxiety about an austerity drive in industrialised countries isclear. Manmohan Singh, prime minister, warned in Toronto thatwhile concerns about debt sustainability normally suggested aneed for fiscal contraction, "circumstances are not normal". Therecovery is still fragile. Contractionary policies, if followed bymany industrialised countries, could provoke a double-diprecession with "very negative effects on developing countries".He went on to say the situation calls for careful co-ordinationamong the G20 countries.

For developing countries the need for the G20 to co-ordinatepolicies is paramount but past experience is not encouraging.In 2006, the International Monetary Fund tried to get the US,Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia and China to co-ordinate theirpolicies to deal with the build-up of current accountimbalances. As Raghuram Rajan, then IMF chief economist,writes in his book Fault Lines , each country recognised there


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was a problem, but each felt others must act differently, andthat its own policies were just right.

The quality of fiscal correction is equally important. The G20has spoken of "growth friendly" consolidation. For fiscalcorrection to be politically acceptable domestically, it must beseen to be fair. Each country has to handle this problem as bestas it can. Structural reforms that enhance productivity must bea critical element of any strategy to ensure sustainable growthin industrialised countries.

Auth

or:

Montek

Singh

A Tale of Two RPLs; The Ambanis revive the

equity cult their father pioneered.

Abstract (Summary)

The numbers are huge on both sides (the brothers had reacheda settlement to go their own ways in June'05). Consider theprojects in the respective pipelines: [Mukesh] raised the fundsto bankroll a 29 million tonnes per annum greenfield refinery at

Jamnagar that calls for a total investment of Rs 27,000 crore.[Anil Ambani] has power projects totally some 24,200 mw thatwill need a little under Rs 32,000 crore to execute. Both issues

were oversubscribed big-time--the refinery one, 52 times andthe power one, 73 times. But it's the price at which Anil's RPLlists that could decide which RPL really rocks. At the time ofwriting, the RPL with the refinery had a market capitalisation ofaround Rs 90,000 crore. At an offer price of Rs 450, the powerRPL will have a market value of a little over Rs 1 lakh crore. Thelisting price will of course widen the gap. If the grey marketprice of close to Rs 900 is indeed going to be the price at whichAnil's RPL lists, it could boast a mind-boggling market cap of Rs


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2 lakh crore. And don't forget: The promoters hold 90 per centof the power RPL (See RPL vs RPL).

Despite that the markets thumbed down top-line IT stocks. Atthe time of writing, the Infosys scrip had touched a 52-week lowof Rs 1,305, while TCS was not too far from its own 52-week lowof Rs 811.25. Macquarie Securities Technology Analyst, SuveerChainani, says: "The results this time were a non-event.Perhaps the markets are looking for a trigger beyond just goodresults." Perhaps a trigger like the extension of a tax holidaybeyond 2010--something that seems unlikely as of now. Thepossibility of a recession in the US, a spillover effect on IT

spending in Europe coupled with the ever-appreciating rupee(IT appreciated 2 per cent in the last quarter) acting asspoilers. For now, the IT companies are sticking to a 'wait andwatch line' and flaunting a robust deal pipeline. "There isnothing in the environment from project cancellations orpricing or something like that to panic about...we have beenable to sustain momentum," commented S. Gopalakrishnan,CEO, Infosys. Similarly, TCS which bagged nine large dealsduring the last quarter, including a $1.2 billion Nielsen deal,

says it has several large deals. "We are pursuing 25deals in the $50-100 million range," says N. Chandrasekaran,COO, TCS. Dalal Street of course isn't listening.

So will 2008 mark the return of general entertainment channels(GECs), which had lost advertising ground to newschannels in 2006 and 2007? The opinion is divided amongmedia planners. "There will be certain elasticity for GECsdepending on content, and viewership can go up. GECs mightalso grow by eating into the share of movies and news," saysBasabdatta Chowdhuri, CEO, Madison Media Plus. "It doesn'thave to be an either-or scenario," says G. Krishnan, ExecutiveDirector & CEO, TV Today Network. "The news genre has grownexponentially in the last few years because we have been ableto grow the audience base." Other broadcasters also say thatdramatic changes are unlikely. "The large audience viewershippatterns are already in place. None of our channel or genre isaffected by any of this," says Paritosh Joshi, President, Ad Sales& Distribution, Star India.


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Autho

r(s):

Anand Adhikari, Mahesh Nayak, T.V. Mahalingam, K.R.

Balasubramanyam, Shamni Pande, Amit Mukherjee,Manu Kaushik, Rishi Joshi, E. Kumar Sharma, Kapil

Bajaj And Deepti Khanna Bose

Headline- New Givex Uptix(TM) Ticket TechnologyHelps Teams Beat the Recession

Abstract (Summary)

In research the author has been concluded with the sentenceteams may just be scratching the surface but are alreadyseeing big returns. Since the San Francisco Giants started theirprogram in early 2009, fans have expressed their approval byincreasing season ticket renewals by over 30%, despite the

recession.

HOW TO BEAT THE RECESSION

Abstract (Summary)

This research shows how the several executives shared theirstrategies on how to beat the recession. By his own estimate,

Joseph Mimran, chairman and CEO of Toronto-based Joe Mimran

& Associates, has braved several "traumatic" downturns since
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launching his Canadian fashion empire in the late 1970s. Still,his businesses have resisted recessionary pressures, thanks, hesays, to consistent investment in marketing. But during the

1990-1991 recession, the entrepreneur who is now the "Joe" inLoblaws' Joe Fresh Style fashions turned his attention tostrategic acquisitions. Meanwhile, wealth is never lost -- it justtransfers hands, says Michael Glazer, CEO of Montreal-basedmystery-shopping service Premier Service Inc. That knowledgehelped him and his business partner maintain the optimismrequired to establish their mystery-shopping firm in the depthsof the early 1990s recession. With that attitude, the pairfocused on educating retailers in how mystery shopping could

help them increase their sales during the downturn.

Autho

r(s):

Chris Atchison,

Susanne Ruder

Headline- MULTI-MANAGEMENT: Henderson uses barbell strategy to

beat recession

Abstract (Summary)

The researcher concluded with the sentence (Henderson) NewStar head of equities Bill McQuaker says Japan is a cyclicalmarket that typically performs well when the global economy isup but did not follow the pattern last year due to the electionand a stronger than anticipated yen. He says the region has alot of catching up to do this year, along with cyclical parts ofthe UK market such as aerospace. McQuaker says this sectordid not pay handsomely last year but he expects 2010 to be
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better and is holding Henderson's UK equity income forexposure to aerospace and other cyclical industries.

Headline- Beat the Recession Blues

Abstract (Summary)

A survey done by Harris Interactive found that 42 percent of18- to 24-year-olds and 33 percent of those 35 to 44 years oldare at least somewhat interested in receiving opt-in mobile

alerts from their favorite businesses. They were particularlykeen on hearing from restaurants, mentioned by 53 percent ofthe surveyed group. Respondents also wanted to receive offersin the separate categories of pizza, fast food and happy hour orbar and nightclub offers. Bryce Marshall, director of strategicservices for Knotice, an Akron company providing software andservices for direct digital marketing, discusses how restaurantsshould approach direct digital marketing. Meanwhile, JonGordon, a speaker, consultant and author, discusses eight

strategies for boosting morale and engagement in the currenteconomy. And Bridget Grams, a principal with the real estateand financial restructuring firm Huntley, Mullaney, Spargo &Sullivan, suggests taking a look at a third cost category:occupancy.

Autho

r(s):

Megan

Rowe

Fast, Affordable Strategy Services To Help Businesses Beat

Recession
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Abstract (Summary)

This research is done by a strategy advisory company in New

York. The name of that company is Cerebellas LLC. This

research mainly focuses on the strategy bites which are

designed to overcome the two biggest barriers to crafting and

executing sound business strategy: time and money , "With

these new offerings, we can serve companies of virtually any

size that are looking for real-time business impact.

Emerging Strategies To Beat The Slowdown

Abstract (Summary)

This research is done by the Harvard Business. Smartcompanies in emerging markets spotted the downturn earlyand reacted quickly. To improve profitability during theslowdown, some companies have chosen to go up the valuechain. At the other end of the spectrum, several Braziliancompanies are pursuing the country's populous low-incomeclass. This is very much helpful and innovative strategy to beat

the recession.

Salon strategy to beat recession

Abstract (Summary)

This research is mainly focuses on the health and beauty

salons. Not only did ICO Salon Performance's first businessevent sell out, but was met by enthusiasm and

participation from salon owners and senior staff delegates.

The day offered solutions to the economic downturn

including a financial planning strategy session, talk on PR

and marketing and retail guidance.

The research also saw the launch of the company's officemanagement system, the Virtual Partner Area, to help manage

staff salaries, incentives, performance and profits.
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Sauflon offers scheme to beat the recession

Abstract (Summary)

According to Sauflon UK sales director, Bradley Wells, a 'unique'aspect of this service is the availability of an option forpractitioners whereby contact lenses and solutions can bepackaged together to meet each patient's requirements.

Exports of manufactured goods rose to highest

level in 16 months

Abstract (Summary)Strong foreign demand for American goods by developingcountries - such as China, India, Russia and Brazil - is helpingto cushion the adverse effects of the slowdowns in thedomestic economy and in most of the industrial nations, whichare besieged by financial turmoil, collapsing housing marketsand rising energy costs.

Author(s):

Evangelos OttoSimos

CONCLUSION


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The global recovery is in full swing,but most employers are still

in a state of panic and continuing to lay off staff when they

should be doing the opposite.Now is the time when employers

need to be thinking ahead and repositioning themselves for the

next phase of growth. This next growth cycle, particular within

Asia, could last longer than most analysts are predicting.

History shows us that unemployment normally peaks right after

a recession has ended and if we look at what is going on

around us it stands to reason that now is in fact not too

dissimilar to previous recessions. Let's follow some tried and

tested methods for "recession-testing" to gauge whether we

really are coming out of the recession. If all the boxes have

been ticked, then it's pretty safe in our view to say that this

recession is coming to an end if not in fact it has ended

already.The case still remains that most countries don't

actually know they're out of recession until the official numbers

are produced.As official numbers are generally crunched in

arrears, then most countries typically have moved out of

recession already by time the numbers are released to the

public. It also works in reverse if we look at what happened

when the recession begun.


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QT=309&VName=PQD
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MPOBRECESSION

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QT=309&VName=PQD

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did=1971012951&sid=3&Fmt=2&clientId=129893&RQ

T=309&VName=PQD

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QT=309&VName=PQD
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mpob term paper 2003

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