mpr october 211009. figure 1.1. repo rate per cent, quarterly averages source: the riksbank note....
TRANSCRIPT
MPR October211009
Figure 1.1. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90%
75%
50%
Otcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-1
0
1
2
3
490%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.5. GDP-growth abroadAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.6. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED
spread)Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Sweden
Euro area
USAUnited Kingdom
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 1.7. Difference between intebank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis
spread)Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Sweden
Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 1.8. Stock market movementsIndex, 04.01.99 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0940
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220Sweden (OMXS)
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
USA (S&P 500)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 1.9. Stock market implied volatilityPer cent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90OMX30 (Sweden)
EuroStoxx (Euro area)
VIX (USA)
Sources: Chicago Board Option Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX Limited
Figure 1.10. Consumer confidence in Sweden, the euro area and the USA
Net figures and index, 1985 = 100
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sweden (left scale)
Euro area (left scale)
USA (right scale)
Sources: The Conference Board, European Commission and National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 1.11. Households’ net wealth and saving ratio in the USA
Percentage of disposable income
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Net wealth (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Federal Reserve and Department of Commerce Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.12. GDP for the USA and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Euro area
USA
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
October
September
Figure 1.14. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USA
GDP-level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
07 08 09 10 11 1292
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110USA
Euro area
Sweden
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
Figure 1.15. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Sweden
Index in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100
92949698
100102104106108110112114116118
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1892949698100102104106108110112114116118
1990 Q2
1996 Q1
2000 Q3
2008 Q1
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.16. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.17. Households’ consumption, disposable incomes and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.18. Confidence indicator and saving ratio for households
Net figures and per cent
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Saving ratio (right scale)
Confidence indicator (left scale)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and world market for Swedish exports
Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Swedish exports
World market for Swedish exports
Figure 1.20. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505101520
September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 85 90 95 00 05 103800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Employed, 16-64 yearsEmployed, 15-74 yearsLabour force, 16-64 yearsLabour force, 15-74 years
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.22. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population, 16-64
year, seasonally-adjusted data
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
80 85 90 95 00 05 1070
72
74
76
78
80
82
84September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.23. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 85 90 95 00 05 100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
OctoberSeptember
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.24. Actual and trend productivity growth in
the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
October
HP-trend
September
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. Nominal wages Annual percentage change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 100
2
4
6
8
10
12September
October
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.27. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ProductivityLabour cost per hourUnit labour cost
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPI
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.29. CPIF excluding energy and unit labour costs
Annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10Unit labour cost
CPIF excluding energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.30. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OutcomeFutures, average up to and including 10 OctoberFutures, September
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 1.31. HICP in Sweden and in the euro area
Annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Sweden
Euro area
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.32. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0September
October
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 1.33. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3September
October
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.34. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0September
October
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.1. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated
in annualised terms
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Main scenario
Higher level of international growth
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.2. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Higher level of international growth
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.3. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Higher level of international growth
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.4. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Main scenario
Higher level of international growth
Source: the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.5. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised
terms
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Higher level of international growthMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.6. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised
terms
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Increased labour productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.7. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Increased labour productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.8. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Increased labour productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.9. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Main scenario
Increased labour productivity
Source: the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.10. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Main scenarioLower interest rateHigher interest rate
Source: the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.11. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised
terms
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Lower interest rateHigher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.12. Production gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.13. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.14. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Lower interest rateHigher interest rateMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 3.1. Long-term interest ratesPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
SwedenEuro area (Germany)USAUnited Kingdom
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Figure 3.2. Government bonds in various euro countries (difference compared to
Germany)Percentage points
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
07 08 09-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5SwedenUnited KingdomGreeceIrelandSpainItaly
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Figure 3.3. Two-year interest ratesPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
SwedenEuro areaUSAUnited Kingdom
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.
Figure 3.4. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the USA
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
6ECB
ECB 03-09-2009
ECB 15-10-2009
FED
FED 03-09-2009
FED 15-10-2009
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.5. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market
participants Per cent
Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
1
2
3
4
5Repo rateForward rate 03-09-2009Forward rate 15-10-2009Survey, Prospera averages, 16-09-2009
Figure 3.6. Monetary baseBillion SEK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
jan/08 apr/08 jul/08 okt/08 jan/09 apr/09 jul/090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450The banks’ holdings of Riksbank certificatesDeposits including fine tuningBanknotes and coins in circulation
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 3.7. Households' and non-financial companies' total borrowing from credit
institutionsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20Households
Companies
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.8. Manufacturing companies’ borrowing on the credit market
Billion USD and EUR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
100
200
300
400
500
600Bond issues denominated in USD
Bond issues denominated in EUR
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Figure 3.9. Long-term mortgage rates in SwedenPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Listed mortgage rate 5 yearsGovernment bond 5 yearsMortgage bond 5 years
Sources: Nordea, Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, SEB, Spintab, Stadshypotek, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.10. Single-family dwelling pricesPurchase price coefficient, whole country
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 101.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.11. Money supplyAnnual percentage change
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-4-2024681012141618202224
Banknotes and coins
M2
M3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.12. Exchange ratesSEK per euro and dollar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
04 05 06 07 08 095
6
7
8
9
10
11
12SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.13. World Trade Monitor IndexIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 3.14. Purchasing mangarer's index in the manufacturing industry
Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1030
35
40
45
50
55
60
65Euro area
USA
Sources: Institute for Supply Management and NTC Research Ltd
Figure 3.15. ExportIndex, 2006 quarter 1 = 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1060
80
100
120
140
160
USA
Euro area
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 3.16. Consumer prices Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6USAEuro areaTCW (100%)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.17. Commodity pricesIndex 2000 = 100, USD
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
50
100
150
200
250
300
350TotalMetalsOther agricultural productsFood
Source: The Economist
Figure 3.18. The Economic Tendency Indicator
Index, mean = 100
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1070
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
The Economic Tendency IndicatorMean+/- one standard deviation
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.19. Confidence indicators for the business sector
Seasonally adjusted net figures
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Manufacturing industryConstruction industryRetail tradePrivate service industriesTotal business sector
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.20. Manufacturing output and orders
Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0950
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130Manufacturing outputOrders
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. Disposable income and savings
Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income
-12-10-8-6-4-202468
101214
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-12-10-8-6-4-202468101214
Savings ratioReal disposable income
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.22. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change, calendar adjusted data
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Households' consumption of retail goodsRetail salesHouseholds' total consumption
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. Non-calendar-adjusted data.
Figure 3.23. Households' expectations for the futureNet figures
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
Unemployment
Confidence Indicator
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.24. General government net lending
Per cent of GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.25. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Business sector excluding housingHousingPublic authorities
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.26. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices
Three-month changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
80 85 90 95 00 05 10-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75Export
Import
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.27. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Orders, NIER (net figures)
Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.28 Employment rate, labour force and unemployment
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
2
4
6
8
10Employment rate (left)Labour force (left)Unemployment (right)
Sources: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.29. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
0
20
40
60
80
100
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
4
8
12
16
20New vacancies (left scale)Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
Source: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.30. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
91 95 99 03 07 110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Manufacturing industryConstruction sectorRetail tradePrivate sector industriesBusiness sector
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 3.31. Employees in the business sector, expectations and outcome
Seasonally adjusted net figures
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30Expectations
Outcome
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.32. Capital utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
75
80
85
90
95
80 85 90 95 00 05 1070
75
80
85
90
95
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.33. WagesAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Public sector
Business sector
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.34. Wages in the business sectorAnnual percentage change
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 101
2
3
4
5
6
Construction sector
Service sector
Industry
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.35. Expectations of inflation one year ahead
Per cent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Households (NIER)
Companies (NIER)
All (Prospera)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS Prospera
Figure 3.36. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years ahead
Per cent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.01 year2 years5 years
Source: TNS Prospera
Figure 3.37. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-
even inflation)Percentage points
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 3.38. Prices of goods and services in the CPI
Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Services (43,5 %)Goods excluding energy and food (26,3 %)
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Figure 3.39. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI
Annual percentage change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Food (16.8 %)Energy (8.9 %)Mortgage costs (4.5 %)
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Figure B1. Mean square gaps for the forecast of inflation and resource
utilisation REVISEDAverage squared deviation during the forecast horizon
Source: The Riksbank
Main scenario
Lower rate
Higher rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8Inflation
Res
ourc
e ut
ilisa
tion
Figure B2. Money supply (M2), monetary base and credit multiplierSEK billion and ratio respectively
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20M2 (left scale)
Monetary base (left scale)
Credit multiplier (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B3. Single-family dwelling prices and household lending
Annual percentage change
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
House prices
Household lending
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B4. Housing investmentsPercentage of GDP, current prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 080
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. Four-quarter moving average
Figure B5. Real house prices in Sweden and abroad
Index, 1980 =100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Denmark
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
USA
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Single-family dwelling prices deflated using consumer price index.
Figure B6. Households' new loans broken down into different maturities
Per cent
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Variable rate Fixed rate < 5 years Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The Riksbank
Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Repo rate 0.6 0.3 (0.3) 0.3 (0.3) 0.4 (0.4) 2.4 (2.4) 4.1
Source: The Riksbank
Table A2. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI 3.4 -0.4 (-0.3) 0.9 (1.2) 3.3 (3.3) 3.7
CPIF 2.7 1.8 (1.9) 1.3 (1.6) 1.9 (1.9) 2.1
CPIF excl. energy 2.0 2.3 (2.3) 1.6 (1.8) 1.7 (1.9) 2.0
HICP 3.3 1.8 (1.9) 1.2 (1.6) 1.8 (1.9) 2.0
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Inflation, 12-month average
Annual percentage change
Dec -08 Dec -09 Dec -10 Dec-11 Dec-12
CPI 0.9 0.4 (0.6) 1.9 (2.0) 4.0 (4.2) 3.3 CPIF 1.6 2.1 (2.3) 1.6 (1.8) 2.0 (2.1) 2.2
CPIF excl. energy 1.7 2.2 (2.2) 1.5 (1.8) 1.8 (2.0) 2.1
HICP 2.1 2.2 (2.5) 1.5 (1.7) 1.9 (2.0) 2.1
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. Summary of financial forecasts
Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Repo rate 4.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.3 (0.3) 1.6 (1.6) 3.6
10-year rate 3.9 3.3 (3.3) 3.9 (3.9) 4.5 (4.5) 4.9 Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
127.2 139.7 (139.5)
129.6 (130.9)
128.3 (129.5)
128.2
General government net lending* 2.5 -2.2 (-2.5) -2.5 (-3.5) -1.0 (-2.1) 0.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A5. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Euro area 0.6 -4.0 (-4.1) 1.0 (0.7) 1.7 (1.7) 2.3 USA 0.4 -2.6 (-2.9) 2.4 (1.5) 3.3 (3.3) 2.9
Japan -0.7 -5.9 (-5.9) 1.2 (1.2) 2.0 (2.0) 1.8
OECD 0.6 -3.6 (-3.7) 1.8 (1.3) 2.6 (2.7) 2.7
TCW-weighted 0.5 -3.8 (-4.0) 1.1 (0.8) 2.0 (2.0) 2.3
World 3.2 -1.0 (-1.1) 3.3 (2.8) 4.2 (3.9) 4.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 97 60 (62) 74 (78) 78 (81) 80 Swedish export market growth 0.5 -9.2 (-10.7) 5.7 (3.2) 7.8 (7.5) 8.3
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
CPI 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Euro area (HICP) 3.3 0.4 (0.4) 1.2 (1.2) 1.7 (1.7) 2.0 USA 3.8 -0.5 (-0.5) 1.8 (1.8) 2.0 (2.0) 2.1 Japan 1.4 -1.3 (-1.2) -0.7 (-0.6) 0.5 (0.5) 0.5 OECD 3.6 0.5 (0.5) 1.6 (1.7) 2.0 (1.9) 2.1
TCW-weighted 3.3 0.5 (0.5) 1.3 (1.3) 1.7 (1.7) 2.0
Table A6. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless
otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Private consumption -0.2 -0.7 (-1.1) 2.0 (1.8) 2.1 (2.0) 2.2 Public consumption 1.5 1.5 (1.1) 0.6 (0.6) 0.6 (0.6) 1.1 Gross fixed capital formation 2.7 -17.3 (-17.1) -1.8 (-5.7) 5.7 (5.4) 6.9 Inventory investment* -0.6 -1.4 (-0.9) 1.1 (0.5) 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 Exports 1.8 -12.8 (-14.7) 4.6 (4.2) 7.3 (7.0) 8.2 Imports 3.0 -15.0 (-16.1) 4.1 (1.9) 6.2 (6.0) 7.4 GDP -0.2 -4.6 (-4.9) 2.5 (1.9) 3.4 (3.2) 3.7 GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.7) 2.2 (1.6) 3.4 (3.2) 3.7 Final figure for domestic demand* 0.8 -3.3 (-3.5) 0.9 (0.1) 2.1 (2.0) 2.5 Net exports* -0.4 0.1 (-0.4) 0.6 (1.3) 1.1 (1.0) 1.1 Current account (NA)** 6.1 7.6 (7.2) 7.7 (8.1) 8.3 (8.6) 8.7
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population, aged 16-64 0.8 0.6 (0.6) 0.3 (0.3) 0.2 (0.2) -0.1 GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.7) 2.2 (1.6) 3.4 (3.2) 3.7 Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 0.9 -3.0 (-3.2) -1.7 (-2.0) 0.6 (0.5) 1.3 Employed (EU-definition) 1.2 -2.4 (-2.4) -2.6 (-2.9) -0.1 (-0.3) 1.2 Labour force (EU-definition) 1.3 0.0 (0.1) -0.6 (-0.6) -0.2 (-0.3) 0.3 Unemployment, aged 15-74 (EU-definition) * 6.2 8.5 (8.6) 10.3 (10.8) 10.3 (10.7) 9.4
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hourly wage, NMO 4.3 3.4 (3.3) 2.2 (2.2) 2.4 (2.4) 2.9 Hourly wage, NA 4.8 3.8 (3.5) 2.1 (2.1) 2.6 (2.6) 3.2 Employer’s contribution* -0.7 -0.5 (-0.4) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 Hourly labour cost, NA 4.1 3.3 (3.2) 2.2 (2.2) 2.6 (2.7) 3.2
Productivity -1.3 -1.4 (-1.6) 4.0 (3.7) 2.8 (2.6) 2.3 Unit labour cost 5.5 4.8 (4.8) -1.7 (-1.5) -0.1 (0.0) 0.9
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Higher level of international growthAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TCW- weighted GDP 0.5 -3.8 (-3.8) 2.1 (1.1) 2.5 (2.0) 1.9 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 3.3 0.5 (0.5) 1.5 (1.3) 2.1 (1.7) 2.3 (2.0)
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent 3.8 1.0 (1.0) 1.3 (1.0) 3.2 (2.6) 4.6 (3.9) GDP, calendar adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.4) 2.5 (2.2) 3.4 (3.4) 3.5 (3.7)
CPIF 2.7 1.9 (1.8) 1.7 (1.3) 2.4 (1.9) 2.1 (2.1)
Labour market gap, per cent 3.2 -0.1 (-0.1) -1.8 (-2.1) -1.4 (-1.8) -0.8 (-1.0)
Repo rate, per cent 4.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.7 (0.3) 2.6 (1.6) 4.4 (3.6)
Sources: National Sources Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Scenario with increased labour productivityAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP, calendar adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.4) 2.7 (2.2) 4.0 (3.4) 4.1 (3.7)
CPIF 2.7 1.8 (1.8) 1.1 (1.3) 1.8 (1.9) 2.0 (2.1)
Labour market gap, per cent 3.2 -0.1 (-0.1) -2.5 (-2.1) -1.9 (-1.8) -1.0 (-1.0)
Productivity -1.3 -1.4 (-1.4) 4.9 (3.9) 3.1 (2.8) 2.6 (2.3)
Repo rate, per cent 4.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.0 (0.3) 1.2 (1.6) 3.3 (3.6)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Scenario with higher repo rate Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP, calendar adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.4) 2.0 (2.2) 2.8 (3.4) 4.1 (3.7) CPIF 2.7 1.8 (1.8) 1.1 (1.3) 0.9 (1.9) 1.5 (2.1)
Labour market gap, per cent 3.2 -0.1 (-0.1) -2.3 (-2.1) -2.7 (-1.8) -1.4 (-1.0)
Repo rate, per cent 4.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.8 (0.3) 2.2 (1.6) 3.1 (3.6)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A12. Scenario with lower repo rate Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP, calendar adjusted -0.4 -4.4 (-4.4) 2.4 (2.2) 3.3 (3.4) 3.7 (3.7) CPIF 2.7 1.9 (1.8) 1.5 (1.3) 2.1 (1.9) 2.1 (2.1)
Labour market gap, per cent 3.2 -0.1 (-0.1) -1.9 (-2.1) -1.7 (-1.8) -1.0 (-1.0)
Repo rate, per cent 4.1 0.6 (0.7) 0.1 (0.3) 1.6 (1.6) 3.6 (3.6)