Lok Sabha Election -2014

Team U.P.

India’s Present Political Landscape

Congress+ rules 19 states in India as compared to 9 for BJP+. Anti-incumbencey losing sting Development becomes a key poll plank with incumbents winning 64% of State Elections. National party closest to majority may attract most alliance partners, irrespective of any pre-poll differences in ideologies. Uttar Pradesh to be battleground state for both INC and BJP

The Regional Party Wildcard

Regional parties have increased vote share over last 2 decades.

However, their increasing vote share has not resulted in creation of Govt at Centre. (Govt. Only in 1996 to 1998)

Third Front has a chance of coming to power but has had a track record of doing reforms

The NaMo Factor • Polarisation of votes may benefit both BJP and INC

Co-relation to Markets Pre-Election rallies observed in most years. Post elections – Normally markets track Global or

Domestic Economic factors. Markets have shown no preference for any political

outcome beyond the initial few weeks Economic Policy - Limited or no change in the

direction of reforms as major political parties provide outside support.

Current political equation in Delhi

Alliance Seat Share in Delhi (2009 General Elections)

Regional Parties Gaining Clout

National parties have gradually lost some ground with both INC and BJP unable to garner simple majority in last 2 decades.

INC sees a significant drop in its tally from 1991 (244) to 1999 (114) but resurrects itself in 2004 (145) and 2009 (206).

SP and BSP have gradually increased their clout, cornering 44 seats in 2009 between themselves from mere 3 seats in 1991.

BJP - Uttar Pradesh To Be The Kurukshtera

Uttar Pradesh – Once a force to reckon with, the party has lost significant ground since 1998. With appointment of Amit Shah a key Modi Aid as the General Secretary in charge of UP, Modi is likely to focus a lot on UP

Understanding The “Caste Factor” BJP captures the mind share among the Upper Caste electorate with the highest

vote share of 37.9% in 2009 elections. The under-privileged strata across India have decisively favoured INC over other

parties, with the Grand Old Party scoring well with SCs, STs and Muslims in particular.

The regional parties have demonstrated a strong grip over the Peasant Class and Upper OBCs; Regional parties have also emerged as the preferred choice among them.

On the whole, INC has exhibited a good performance across castes, tribes and religious communities

Understanding The “Class Divide” In 2009, INC displayed a well-rounded performance; equally distributed across all classes. Historically, BJP has found favour with Upper Class and Middle Class. In 2009 elections, interestingly INC defeated BJP across all classes, especially Upper Class and

Middle Class; BJP lost significant ground to ‘Others’ in the Middle Class segment. Poor and Very Poor classes have historically preferred to vote for INC. While INC allies have been able to hold on to their vote share, the BJP allies have lost ground

across all segments. Left Parties lost heavily due to loss of Upper Class vote while gaining vote share among Poor and

Very Poor categories. BSP gains vote share across all classes, especially in Middle Class - a BJP stronghold. “Others” were the maximum gainers.

The Class Divide: Rural vs. Urban Most parties bridge the urban rural divide well with

almost equal vote shares in both segments. Only exceptions are Congress allies which have a

predominant urban presence.

Regional Parties: A Force To Reckon With

The “Modi” Factor The anointment of Modi as the chairman of Election Committee for BJP has been the most keenly awaited announcement for the 2014 General Election

Modi’s OBC background may be of importance in Hindi Heartland though it is not an overtly used card as he appeals to larger sections of society.

This would lead to polarization of votes with BJP gaining 40 seats (from earlier tally of 141 to 179) whereas INC may stand to gain 23 seats (i.e. from earlier tally of 113 to 136)

Muslim Vote Bank- The rise of Modi could polarise Muslim vote bank which is the key in certain constituency many of them in politically important Uttar Pradesh.

Post Godhra riots in 2002 no major political party withdrew support to NDA Govt.

Therefore alignment of political parties towards an alliance is likely to be driven by need for becoming part of ruling alliance at Centre. Hence the largest political party or group will invite attention from more suitors for post poll alliances

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Domestic Political and International Economic Event 2009 Elections:

Markets witnessed ‘Super Rally’ – as UPA retains power without support of Left. This also coincided with the global liquidity rally which lasted till

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2009 Elections: INC-led United Progressive

Alliance (UPA) wins 262 seats forms Government:

(2009-till date: Manmohan Singh led

UPA-II Govt

Q.1. What are the factors you shall consider while electing your candidates?

Secular 58 16%

Development oriented

126 34%

National Safety 133 36%

Person of your region/cast

40 11%

Leader/Candidate 16 4%

Secular ; 58

Development oriented ; 126

National Safety ; 133

Person of your region/cast ; 40

Leader/Candidate ; 16

Q.2. According to you which political party is most promising for future?

SP 91 24%

BSP 62 17%

BJP 118 32%

Congress 73 20%

Other 29 8%

SP ; 91

BSP ; 62

BJP ; 118

Congress ; 73

Other ; 29

Q.3. Which issue influences you to vote in an election?

Corruption 54 14%

Employment 160 43%

Basic Facilities 98 26%

Crime 37 10%

Education 24 6%

Corruption ; 54

Employment ; 160

Basic Facilities ; 98

Crime ; 37

Education ; 24

Q.4. What Do you prefer in the candidate?

Young Thoughts 347 53%

Experienced Leader 304 47%

Young Thoughts ; 347Experienced Leader ; 304

Q.5 What is your opinion about the format of the Government?

Coalition 211 33%

Majority 433 67%

Coalition ; 211

Majority ; 433

Q.6. Who will play the role of mass leader in a better way in 2014 polls?

Mulayam Singh Yadav

115 18%

Mayawati 190 29%

Ajit Singh 124 19%

Other 219 34%

Mulayam Singh Yadav ; 115

Mayawati ; 190

Ajit Singh ; 124

Other ; 219

Q.7. Will Ram Mandir Issue be a turning point in the 2014 polls?

Yes 262 40%

No 386 60%

Yes ; 262

No ; 386

Q.8. What is your assessment of the work done by Samajwadi Party led government at the Centre in last two-and-half-years?

Very Satisfied 56 9%

Somewhat satisfied 181 28%

Somewhat dissatisfied 195 30%

Fully dissatisfied 151 23%

Can’t Say 68 10%

Very Satisfied ; 56

Somewhat satisfied ; 181

Somewhat dis-satisfied ; 195

Fully dissatisfied ; 151

Can’t Say ; 68

Q.9. If you wish to compare four major political parties in UP - Samajwadi Part (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and Congress. In your opinion which among them are better for the following: For BackwardsFor DalitsFor MuslimsFor PoorFor Women

Samajwadi Party

For Backwards 273 44%

For Dalits 63 10%

For Muslims 193 31%

For Poor 64 10%

For Women 24 4%

Bahujan Samaj Party

For Backwards 94 15%

For Dalits 408 67%

For Muslims 54 9%

For Poor 42 7%

For Women 13 2%

Bhartiya Janta Party

For Backwards 177 30%

For Dalits 78 13%

For Muslims 115 19%

For Poor 174 29%

For Women 52 9%

Congress

For Backwards 109 18%

For Dalits 92 15%

For Muslims 244 40%

For Poor 112 18%

For Women 52 9%

Q.11. Some people believe that crime in UP has decreased from what it was a few years back, others say that it has increased from what it was earlier and some say that there is no difference. What is your opinion about it?

Crime decreased 80 12%

Crime increased 290 45%

No changes 195 30%

Can't say 84 13%

Crime decreased ; 80

Crime increased ; 290No changes ; 195

Can't say ; 84

Analysis As research has shown, 36% of people say that they would elect a candidate

primarily on the basis of National Safety. Though they are closely followed by 34% voters who may chose a candidate on the basis of Development. The Leader seem to posses the least parameter to chose a candidate.

32% people believe that BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) will win the next UP elections. The current running party SP (Samajwadi Party) follows next with 24%. And the party at the centre, Congress, is at third spot with 20%.

The current scenario of the country is completely evident with the way people have chosen Employment as a primary influential criteria of voting with 43%.. Shockingly Education falls way behind with just 6%.

People seem to be more inclined towards Young Thoughts as 53% of sample voted for them in comparison to experienced leader. Current CM of UP is a young ministeer

There is a high belief and want towards a majority government. Currently running government in UP is also in full majority.

33% believe that none of the present political celebrity in UP to handle UP in future. So highest number of vote, i.e., 34% has gone to the ‘other’ candidate.

60% of voters believe that Ram Mandir, ever after so many years may play a role in the election of UP-2014.

A sense of dissatisfaction has been deduced from this voting for the work done by SP government in last two and half years. 30% people are ‘somewhat dissatisfied’. However a near 28% people are ‘somewhat satisfied’ too.

Backwards seem to be getting a huge support from SP – 44%. Dalits seem to be getting a complete support from BSP – 44%. BJP strikes a balance of 30% with Backwards and Poor. Congress seems to be more inclined towards Muslims with a support of

40%.

As far as crime is concerned, 45% people still believe that crime has only increased with every passing year, not only in UP, but in all over India.

Thank You !!