mrc/cso social and public health sciences unit reducing agricultural carbon emissions: what’s...

MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit

Reducing agricultural carbon emissions: What’s public health got to

do with it?

Scottish Faculty of Public Health

6th November 2014S Vittal Katikireddi

E-mail: [email protected]

Twitter: @vkatikireddi

Clinical Lecturer in Public Health

MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow


GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades.

3

Based on Figure 1.3Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org


About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.

4

Based on Figure 5.3Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Fifth report (published this year)• WG1: Physical Science Basis• WG2: Adaptation

• What will be the impact of climate change?• How can we adapt to reduce the adverse

consequences?• WG3: Mitigation

• How can we reduce the magnitude of climate change?

• Organised into: Energy, Transport, Buildings, Industry and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)


Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.

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Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org


Health in the Green Economy

http://www.who.int/hia/green_economy/en/


Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease

Risk factor AFOLU?

High blood pressure

Tobacco (inc SHS)

Alcohol

Household air pollution (solid fuels)

Diet low in fruits

High BMI

High glucose

Childhood underweight

Ambient air pollution

Physical inactivity

Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The

Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).


Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease

Risk factor AFOLU? Why

High blood pressure Agriculture influences diet

Tobacco (inc SHS) Agricultural product

Alcohol Agricultural product

Household air pollution (solid fuels)

Use of forestry and agricultural residues

Diet low in fruits Agriculture influences diet

High BMI Agriculture influences diet and PA

High glucose Agriculture influences diet

Childhood underweight Agriculture influences diet

Ambient air pollution Emissions eg from meat production

Physical inactivity Largest employment sector

Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The

Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).


Mechanisms to health impacts

Mechanism Health impacts

Environmental degradation Adverse impacts of agriculture on environment

Food security and nutrition Malnutrition: protein energy and/or micronutrient.

Non-communicable diseases Obesity and tobacco

Infectious diseases Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases; Antibiotic resistance

Occupational health risks Injuries; Exposure to chemicals

Social & economic determinants of health and equity

Socio-economic impacts and their distribution


Potential win-wins

• Dietary diversity• May mean increasing consumption for some parts of the

world: a ‘contraction and convergence’ approach

• Healthier meat consumption• Role of red meat in NCDs, water stress and antibiotic

resistance

• Improving crop productivity• Need to balance short-term gains with long-term

sustainability

• Reducing tobacco production• Deforestation, soil degradation and occupational risks

• Equity• Ensure equity-promoting e.g. Dangers of limiting

importation of food


Difficulties in assessment

• Timescale• Short-term vs long-term

• Geography• Context matters!

• Conflicting evidence about health impacts

• Conflicting evidence about sectoral impacts

• Evidence vs Precautionary Principle• Vested interests


Acknowledgements

• Lead for agriculture expertise• Tara Garnett

• WHO• Elaine Fletcher• Carlos Dora• Francesco Branca• Finola Hackett

• NHS Lothian• Margaret Douglas

• N.B. The views expressed do not represent the WHO. A final report is still in preparation.


Climate change and health

Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects on health of climate change will be felt by most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, the earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above pre-industrial average temperature.

The Lancet (2009). Managing the health effects of climate change. The Lancet and University College of London Commission on Climate Change.


Climate change and health

Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earth’s average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature.[...] Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.

Costello, A., et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373(9676): 1693-1733.

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