mrunal [current] april-week3-p2_ geography, enviornment_ el nino 2014, its impact on indian monsoon,...

5/22/2014 Mrunal [Current] April-Week3-P2: Geography, Enviornment: El Nino 2014, its impact on Indian Monsoon, Agriculture & Economy, Biodiversity Manag…

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[Current] April-Week3-P2: Geography, Enviornment: El Nino 2014, itsimpact on Indian Monsoon, Agriculture & Economy, BiodiversityManagement Committees, Critically Endangered Indian Birds

1. Prologue

2. E1: El Nino, its impact on Indian Monsoon

1. What happens in a Normal Year?

2. What happens in La Nina Year?

3. What happens in an El Nino year?

4. What is Southern Oscillation?

5. How does El Nino affect Indian Monsoon?

6. El Nino 2014 and India

7. Will El Nino 2014 hurt Indian GDP?

8. Do we really need to fear El Nino 2014?

1. Arguments: why we don’t need to fear El Nino?

2. Arguments: why we should worry about El Nino?

3. E2: 15 Indian birds globally endangered

4. E3: Biodiversity Management Committees

Prologue

Current Affairs from April Week3 (16th to 22nd). Total three parts

1. History, Polity, Economy: Coming soon2. Geography, Environment, Biodiversity (You’re here)3. International Relations (IR)/ Diplomacy. Done click me

before reading further, practice following questions:

UPSC General Studies (Mains) – Answer following in 200 words each.

1. (GS1) What is El Nino? How does it affect India and World?2. (GS1) Explain in brief, the impact of La Nina on Indian monsoon3. (GS3) Discuss the structure and functions of Biodiversity Management

Committees under Biodiversity Act 2002? Evaluate their success in India.

Interview

1. The fear about El Nino on Indian Economy is overhyped. Do you agree?

E1: El Nino, its impact on Indian Monsoon

El Nino has been in news for long time because IMD, RBI and Economists warningabout its negative impact on Indian agriculture and Indian Economy.

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What happens in a Normal Year?

Peru Current = Humboldt Current = Cold Current.During normal year two things are “STRONG”

Cold Peru CurrentTrade Winds

As a result, cold water is dragged from Peru towards Australia. (observefollowing image)

Result of this exchange?

In above image, the red (warm) water region around Australia is called WesternPacific Pool (WPP)WPP = low pressure = warm air ascends = cloud formation = rain over NorthAustraliaThis air also joins walker cell and begins descending near Peru.Descending air = anti-cyclonic condition = high pressure = stability = no

https://www.flickr.com/photos/97816112@N02/13925251440



cloud/rain = Drought in Atacama Desert.

So in a way two cycles are created

belowthewater

Moving of waterfrom Peru toAustralia.

@Peru cold water upwelling brings nutrient to surface=more lunch for Plankton= more fishes = good for Perufishermen.

abovewater

Moving of airfrom Australiatowards Peru.

Warm water + low atmospheric pressure = goodrainfall over Australia & Indonesia.

Ok, we learned what happens in Normal year. Now let’s check

What happens in La Nina Year?

same things as in a “normal” year, but those two things become even “stronger”

1. Cold Peru Current2. Trade Winds

Result?

Too many fishes @Peru coast, oversupply of fishes= prices become dirt cheapToo much rain / flood over Australia and Indonesia.

Now coming to the main topic:

What happens in an El Nino year?

Observe following image:



two things become “WEAK”1. Cold Peru Current2. Trade Winds

As result, cold water is not dragged from Peru to Australia.But reverse happens – warm water is dragged from Australia towards Peru.Consequently, warm water + low pressure condition develops in the EasternPacific (Peru) and Cold condition + high pressure in Western Pacific(Australia).

Since Pressure is inversely related with amount of rainfall, the results are following

1. Rain & Floods @Peru, Atkama and even Southern USA2. Drought @Northern Australia, Indonesia- even bushfires.3. Storms and Hurricanes in East Pacific.4. Coral bleaching (high temperature coral dies)5. (for MCQ) El Nino decreases earth’s rotation rate, decreases Coriolis force and




increases length of day. (La Nina creates opposite). How? Because El Ninochanges the wind pattern, hence Earth needs change speed to conserve itsangular momentum of Earth-Atmospheric system.

What is El Nino?

Warming of Pacific OceanNear Western coast of Peru and Ecuador.Occurs @every 3-4 years; [In theory, it should occur @every 12 years].Its impact usually lasts for 9-12-18-24 months.It weakens the trade winds and changes in Southern Oscillation, thereby affectsthe rainfall pattern across the world.

What is Southern Oscillation?

Alternating of (tropical) sea level pressureBetween the eastern and western hemispheres.

We measure Southern Oscillation by observing the pressure difference between

1. Tahiti (French Polynesia) and2. Darwin (Australia).

Impact of Southern Oscillation (SO)?

High SO Index Low SO

large pressure difference between (tropical) oceansof Eastern vs. Western Hemisphere

smaller pressuredifference

associated with El Nino hence the name ENSO = El Nino-Sothern Oscillation

La Nina

Weak trade winds Strong trade winds

poor monsoon good monsoon

How does El Nino affect Indian Monsoon?

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) water circulation happens betweenAustralia and PeruBut the wind movement is part of larger atmospheric circulation hence affectsthe rainfaill over India. But how?

We learned that El Nino = warm water moves towards Australia, this pool of warmwater is called Western Pacific Pool (WPP). From WPP air rises above and movestowards two walker cells

1. Towards Peru coast = this affects rainfall in South America.2. Towards Mascarene High Pressure zone near East Africa. = This affect Indian

monsoon.



DURING NORMAL YEAR DURING EL NINO YEAR

strong WPPstrong trade winds

weak WPPweak trade winds





strong Mascarene HighStrong push for moistureladen winds towards Indiagood rain

weakening of winds flowing towardsMascarene highweak push to Monsoon winds towards IndiaLess rainfall / weak monsoon.

During La Nina years, this pushis even stronger = heavy rainand floods.

El Nino caused severe drought in India(2009-10). Sugar price were highest in 30year history.

El Nino= Little boy in Spanish.Hence its opposite is called

La Nina (little girl)El Vejo= old man, but LaNina more popular termnowadays.

Similar drought situation in Australia,Southeast Asia and Africa. (And floods inBrazil and USA Midwest.)Such condition prevails for 9-24 months.

El Nino 2014 and India

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted “below” normal monsoonfor 2014.RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan too has warned about the negative impact of ElNino (in his last monetary policy press conference.)

Poor monsoon / drought like condition = commodities prices will riseespecially sugar, pulses and edible oil. Government needs to stock them up, putrestriction on exports, before black marketers start hoarding.Farmers need to device alternate farming strategy, change the seeds andirrigation strategy for the drought like situation.

NEED TO WORRY DON’T NEED TO WORRY

Area without irrigation, and totallydependent on monsoon.Western India region especially oilseeds,pulses and cotton=> high cost of rawmaterial will have negative impact on theirmanufacturing sectors also.

Area depending on Gangafor irrigation. Because sofar Ganga’s water is aboveits 10 year average.Area with alternativeirrigation solutions (borewell, watersheds, dripirrigation)

Oilseed and pulses- will have to importthem.

wheat price, because FCIhas more than sufficientstock

Will El Nino 2014 hurt Indian GDP?

Merrill Lynch predicated following:

http://mrunal.org/2014/04/current-april-week1-p2-economy-monetary-policy-updategi-tagging-kanauj-attarpredatory-pricing-spicejet-bis-new-labelling-guidlines-electronics.html#11



2014 (without El Nino) 2014 with El Nino

good rainfall poor rainfaill / drought like condition

inflation declines to ~7% inflation raises to ~10%

if inflation declines=> RBIwill reduce reporate=>cheaper loans=>morebusiness expansion =>moreGDP.

To combat inflation, RBI will further increaseREPO rate (OR RBI will not decrease REPO Rate)=> either way expensive loans => less businessexpansion => low GDP growth.

GDP growth rate will increase

2013 = 4.7%2014 = 5.4%

low GDP growth rate

2013 = 4.7%2014 = ~3.95%

Do we really need to fear El Nino 2014?

answer is both YES and NO.

Arguments: why we don’t need to fear El Nino:

1. Only “Strong” El Nino affects India negatively. But this time WMO predicted“Weak” El Nino.

2. Private Weather Agencies predict only 30% chance of El nino.3. Not Every El Nino year caused drought in India in the past.4. Under British Raj and even in 50s era, a drought under El Nino = Millions would

die in starvation and suicide because of moneylenders.5. But that’s not the same India we live in today. ~40% of the farmlands are

irrigated; FCI has large buffer stock of foodgrains; Government has sufficientmoney to announce financial packages to drought hit farmers; RBI has sufficientForex reserve to finance any emergency food imports; we enjoy goodwill amongall developed countries for even food-aid free of cost.

6. Only IF terrorists blowup all FCI godowns, Black maketeers hoard every lastgram of remaining onions and foodgrains, RBI’s forex reserve gets completelyempty because of Fed Tapering…..THEN and only THEN El Nino can createhavoc on India.

7. El Nino Southern Oscillation = natural phenomenon for redistribution of excessheat. Humans cannot control or modify this cycle. In theory we can stop El Ninoby dropping 10m thick iceberg size of a United States, into the Peru coast- butthat’s impractical. So, Instead of fearing El Nino, we must learn to predict andadapt to its consequences.

Arguments: why we should worry about El Nino 2014

Even if El Nino doesn’t happen, the mere rumor of El Nino drives up the pricesin commodity market because of the speculative investors. For example, globalprices of Cocoa are high right now- not because of less production but becauseof El Nino speculation.It is true we enjoy good will among developed countries for getting free foodaid. But this time,

Australia- second largest export of wheat they’re already facing drought



because of Pre-El Nino type condition.US Midwest =called “Granary of the world” for wheat and corn. But theytoo face flood danger from El Nino.

India is second largest producer of sugar, rice and wheat in the world. 90% ofRice comes from Asia.

Combine all these isolated facts with IPCC’s latest report on climate change…

Erratic Rainfall, melting of Himalayan glaciers, frequent flooding, draughts, stormsand cyclones => Food insecurity for large population.

United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization predicted a “weak” El Ninoby the middle of 2014.It depends on when exactly during “mid” 2014 this happens because

IF El Nino happens by summerIF El Niño happens by fallseason (August to October.)

Then India will be worst affected because of lowmonsoon during June- September.

Then India will escape withoutinjuries.

Mock question

Q1. What is El Nino? How does it affect India and World? (200 words)

El Nino is an Oceanic and Atmospheric phenomenon that leads to unusualwarming of water in the Peru coast.

http://mrunal.org/2014/04/current-april-week1-p3-environment-polity-culture-ipcc-latest-reportcess-diesel-carssahara-dust-storm-ipc-376-e-death-penalty-rape-anavaal-pidi-gangaur-angkor-wat.html#415



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Consequently, warm water + low pressure condition develops in the EasternPacific (Peru) and Cold condition + high pressure in Western Pacific(Australia).Since Pressure is inversely related with amount of rainfall, El Nino causesdraught situation in Australia and South East Asia.El Nino also leads to reversal of pressure difference between Indian and PacificOcean- known as Southern Oscillation.El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weakens the Trade winds, consequentlyless push to the South Western Monsoon Winds from Mascarene High to India,and therefore poor monsoon.

To India

Drought condition decreases the agriculture output, leads to food inflation.Declined supply of cotton, oilseeds and sugarcane negatively affects the textile,edible oil and food processing industries respectively.

To World

Drought situation over South East Asia and Australia hurts rice and wheatcultivation respectively.Warm condition over Peru coast: unsuitable for Plankton population, thus badfor fishing industry. Birds migrate in search of fishes, thus less guano droppingfor Fertilizer industry in Peru and Ecuador.Flood situation in South America & US Midwest lead to decline in coffee-cocoaand corn-wheat production respectively.

~220 words

Q2. Explain in brief, the impact of La Nina on Indian monsoon (200 words)

That’s your homework.

E2: 15 Indian birds globally endangered

Topic in news because Hindu ran a story and UPSC has a nasty habit of asking MCQsrelated to Endangeredness of xyz bird/animal.

1. BengalFlorican

CriticallyEndangered

Himalayan Terai (UP, Assam, ArunachalPradeshfarmers destroy Grasslands and scrub forests

2. Great Critically

few birds in Kutch, Maharashtra, Deccan,Rajasthan, Andhra, Karnataka.Almost disappeared from Haryana, Punjab,Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil NaduMine workers lost jobs after closure ofGwalior mine=> resorted o poaching inGhatigaon sanctuary.



IndianBustard

Endangered Egg collecting in Andhra and KarnatakaBustards like monsoon crops – Sorghum Milletetc but now farmers grow cash crops-sugarcane, cotton etc thanks to irrigation.mining, quarrying, power projectsEucalyptus, Juliflora etc exotic tree species byForest Department

3. SociableLapwing

criticallyendangered

Kutch and RajasthanFarmers destroy Grasslands and scrub forests =less moth = less birds.lay eggs on ground-nests. they’re destroyed bygrazing sheeps and goats.hunting by nomadic tribes.

4. Jerdon’sCourser

criticallyendangered

Eastern Ghat Andhra, South MPfarmers destroy Grasslands and scrub forestsHabitat fragmentation by Telugu-Ganga Canalin Cuddapah District of Andhra

5. ForestOwlet


Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha.Central India’s deciduous forestfuel-fodder collectiontribal use their eggs, feathers, bones for drummaking.Agro-chemicals reduce insect, rodentpopulation.

6. Spoon-billedSandpiper


North East and Bangladeshwetland destruction due to damsfoxes and dogs destroy their nests

7. SiberianCrane


Migratory – to Keoladeo sanctuary, Rajasthan.Wetland destruction

8. White-belliedHeron


North East India, Bhutan, Myanmarwetland destruction for tea plantationsPoaching in Namdapha National parkforest fires, hydroelectric projects

9. Red-headed


also called PondicherryGujarat, North East, Himalayan foothillsDiclofenac drug to animals=> dead animal



Vulture eaten by Vulture => vulture kidney fail byDiclofenac.

10. ChristmasIslandFrigate


originally from Christmas island, Australia.Andaman and Nicobar islandsoverfishing + marine pollution in Andaman seaNon-Native species “yellow ants”=> baby crabskilled => less food for frigate.

11. LesserFlorican

EndangeredGujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtrafarmers destroy Grasslands and scrub forests

12. EgyptianVulture

Endangered

North Western Indiaelectrocution (by powerlines)collisions with wind turbines,and ofcourse Diclofenac

13. GreaterAdjutant(stork)

Endangered

Assam and Bihar.Since they eat carcasses and small animals-people cut the trees to get rid of them fromsocieties and colonies.food chemicals in dumpsters

14. MaskedFinfoot(duck)

Endangered

North East Indiariverine destroyed for tea plantationillegal felling of treesdam construction- siltationhunting eggs and chicks

15. WoodSnipe

VulnerableHimalayas & North EastHabitat destroyed for tea plantation & jhoomcultivation

E3: Biodiversity Management Committees

Topic in news because EPW ran a story about it on 19th April 2014.

Q. Discuss the structure and functions of Biodiversity Management Committeesunder Biodiversity Act 2002? Evaluate their success in India. (200 words)

Biological Diversity Act 2002 mandates all local bodies to setup BiodiversityManagement Committees (BMC).Structure: One Chairperson, Six Members: 1/3rd of nominated should bewomen, SC/ST reservation as per state demography.



Functions:

1. Preserve and promote local biodiversity- breeds of birds, animals and plants.2. Prepare People’s Biodiversity Register (PBR)- an Electronic database with

inputs from locals.3. Maintain data medicinal plants/resources used by local Vaidhya (traditional

healer).4. Advice State & National Biodiversity Boards on matters related to local

biodiversity.5. Under Nagoya Protocol of Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), they can collect

fees for granting access to Biodiversity register to researchers and commercialcompanies.

Why limited success:

1. The legal/IPR status of PBR register is in grey area, leading to frivolouslitigations.

2. For example, In Madhya Pradesh, Chindwara BMC filed a case against CoalIndia, demanding profit sharing on the premise that coal is a biological resource.

3. In some states, Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) have refused to form BMCsfearing erosion of their authority over minor forest produce.

4. State Forest departments, Forest traders & mining lobby don’t cooperate withBMC for the similar reason.

5. UNDP and UNEP have allotted separate funding for BMCs but money notutilized given the administrative red-tapes in India.

Given these limited finance, decision making powers and non-cooperation fromothers, the BMCs are reduced to mere data gathering bodies; and have failed tocatalyze Sustainable development in Rural India. (Except a few Cinderella stories and“glorified case studies” Yojana and Kurukshetra)

~230 words

Visit Mrunal.org/CURRENT for entire Archive weekly current affairs compilationspublished so far.

URL to article: http://mrunal.org/2014/05/current-april-week3-p2-geography-enviornment-el-nino-2014-impact-indian-monsoon-agriculture-economy-biodiversity-management-committees-critically-endangered-indian-birds.html

Posted By Mrunal On 05/05/2014 @ 13:53 In the category Current Affairs Weekly

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