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1Evaluation of Planning Options to Alleviate Traffic Congestion and Resulting Air Pollution in Dhaka City by Khandker Mohammed Nurul Habib MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING (TRANSPORTATION) Department of Civil Engineering BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY 2002 2The thesis titled Evaluation of Planning Options to Alleviate Traffic Congestion and Resulting Air Pollution in Dhaka City Submitted by Khandker Mohammed Nurul Habib, Roll: 100004409(P), Session: October 2000, has been accepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment of requirement for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering (Transportation). BOARD OF EXAMINERS ___________________________ Dr. Md. Jobair Bin Alam Chairman Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering BUET, Dhaka. ___________________________ Dr. Md. Mazharul Hoque Member Professor Department of Civil Engineering BUET, Dhaka. ___________________________ Dr. Md. Abdur Rouf Member Professor & Head (Ex-officio) Department of Civil Engineering BUET, Dhaka. ___________________________ Dr. Mohd. S. Kiwan Member Associate Professor (External) Department of Civil Engineering Ahsanullah University of Science & Technology, Dhaka. 3 CANDIDATES DECLERATION It is hereby declared that this thesis or any part of it has not been submitted elsewhere for the award of any degree or diploma. ----------------------------- August, 2002 Khandker Mohammed Nurul Habib 4 DEDICATION 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page Declaration I Dedication II Table of Content III List of Tables VII List of Figures IX List of Abbreviations XI Acknowledgement XII Abstracts XIII Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 General 1 1.2 Motivation of the Research 2 1.3 Objectives of the Research 4 1.4 Scope of the Study 5 1.5 Organization of the Thesis 5 Chapter 2: Literature Review 2.1 Introduction 8 2.2 Transport Studies in Bangladesh 8 2.2.1 Planning and Policy Related Study 8 2.2.2 Traffic Management and Safety Study 11 2.2.3 Studies on Urban Travel Pattern of Dhaka 12 2.2.4 Studies on Urban Public Transport 12 2.2.5 An Overview 12 6 2.3 Research on Traffic Planning and Management 13 2.3.1 Urban Land Use Pattern 13 2.3.2 Choice of Travel Mode 13 2.3.3 Transport Modes - Performance, Planning and Management 14 2.3.4 An Overview 15 2.4 Traffic Modeling 16 2.4.1 Overview 16 2.4.2 Comments on Transportation Modeling Systems 17 2.5 Transport System of Dhaka City 19 2.5.1 Road Transportation Network 19 2.5.2 Road Transport Modes 20 2.5.3 Road Transport Management 22 2.5.4 Travel Characteristics of People of Dhaka City 23 2.5.5 Road Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City 26 2.5.6 Traffic Induced Air Pollution in Dhaka City 27 2.6 Summary 30 Chapter 3: Study Design and Methodology 3.1 Introduction 32 3.2 Development of a Strategic Urban Transportation Model for Dhaka 33 3.2.1Outline of the Model Structure 34 3.2.2 Trip Generation and Attraction 36 3.2.3 Trip Distribution 37 3.2.4 Modal Split 38 3.2.5 Trip Assignment 42 3.3 Selection of Study Area 43 3.3.1 Overview of the Study Area 43 3.3.2 Zoning of the Study Area for Analysis 44 3.3.3 Employment and Demographic Characteristics of Study Area 46 3.3.4 Transportation Network of Study Area 47 7 3.4 Evaluation of Transportation System Performance 48 3.4.1 Way to Quantify Congestion 49 3.4.2 Mobility Level 54 3.4.3 Measurement of Air Pollution 54 3.3 Summary 55 Chapter 4: Model Development and Calibration 4.1 Introduction 56 4.2 Components of DUTM 57 4.2.1 Trip Generation Model 58 4.2.2 Trip Distribution 59 4.2.3 Modal Split 59 4.2.4 Traffic Assignment 60 4.3 Model Calibration 61 4.3.1 Calibration Process 61 4.3.2 Calibration of Modal Split 62 4.3.3 Calibration of Link Volume 63 4.5 Limitations of Developed Model 65 4.6 Summary 66 Chapter 5:Baseline Analysis and Planning Need Assessment Using DUTM 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 Impact Analysis 68 5.2.1 Impact on Peak Period Transportation Demands 68 5.2.2 Impact on Peak Period Volume-Capacity Ratio and Speed 69 5.2.3 Impact on Peak Period Mobility or Traffic congestion 72 5.2.4 Impact of Air Pollution 76 5.3 Summary 80 Chapter 6: Evaluation of Alternative Planning Options 8 6.1 Introduction 82 6.2 Alternative Planning Options 82 6.2.1 Planning Options Overview 82 6.2.2 Planning Options for Immediate Implementation 83 6.3 Elimination of Rickshaws from Main Road links of urban Dhaka 83 6.3.1 Impact on Traffic Congestion 83 6.3.2 Impact on Air Pollution 85 6.3.3 Impact on Demand for Other Modes 86 6.4 Elimination of Auto-Rickshaws from Main Road links of urban Dhaka 91 6.4.1 Impact on Traffic Congestion 91 6.4.2 Impact on Air Pollution 92 6.4.3 Impact on Demand for Other Modes 93 6.5 Effects of Road Network Improvement 97 6.5.1 Identification of Network Deficiency and Bottlenecks 97 6.5.2 Impact on Traffic Congestion and Air Pollution 98 6.5.3 Impact on Air Pollution 99 6.6 Effects of Improvement of Bus Service 102 6.6.1 Impact on Traffic Congestion 103 6.6.2 Impact on Air Pollution 103 6.6.3 Scope of Improvement of Bus Service in Urban Dhaka 104 6.7 Incorporation of Intra-city Rail Service 109 6.7.1 Selection of Rail Route and Service 109 6.7.2 Impact on Traffic Congestion 109 6.7.3 Impact on Air Pollution 110 6.7.4 Impact on Demand for Other Modes 111 6.8 Remarks on Evaluated Planning Options 112 6.9 Summary 114 Chapter 7:Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Research 7.1 Conclusions 116 9 7.1.1 Findings of the Study 117 7.1.2 Impacts of Alternative Planning Options 118 7.2 Recommendation for Future Research 121 References 123 Appendices Appendix-A 131 Appendix-B 135 Appendix-C 138 LIST OF TABLES Table 2. 1: Changes in Number of Registered Vehicles (1992-1999). 21 Table 2. 2: Comparison between Estimated Number of Motorized Vehicles in Whole Country and Greater Dhaka. 21 Table 2. 3: Agencies Responsible for Urban Transport Infrastructure in Dhaka. 22 Table 2. 4: Trip Task by Mode in Greater Dhaka. 25 Table 2. 5: Metro-Dhaka: Person Trip by Modes, 1999. 25 10Table 3. 1: Employment opportunity in Sub-Regions of Study Area. 46 Table 3. 2: Scale of Different Mobility Levels. 54 Table 3. 3: Emissions by Different Types of Vehicles. 54 Table 4. 1: Coefficients of Regression Equation for Trip Generation and Attraction. 58 Table 4. 2: Values of Calibrated Parameters. 62 Table 4. 3 Comparison of Model Assignments with Observed data of Base year of 2001. 64 Table 5. 1: Effects of Population Change on Peak Period Travel Demand and Mobility. 69 Table 5. 2: Changes of Peak Period Congestion Indices with Time. 73 Table 5. 3: Changes of Emissions per Peak Hour with Population Change in Time. 77 Table 6. 1: Peak Period Total Travel Demand in the Conditions of With-rickshaw and Without-rickshaw Composition. 86 Table 6. 2: Peak Period Congestion Indices in the C