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Robust Design Prof. Dan Frey Mechanical Engineering and Engineering Systems 16.888 – Multidisciplinary System Design Optimization Control Factor Response

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Robust Design

Prof. Dan Frey Mechanical Engineering and Engineering Systems

16.888 – Multidisciplinary System Design Optimization

Control Factor

Response

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

Ball and Ramp

Ball

RampFunnel

Response =the time the ball remains in the funnel

Causes of experimental error = ?

Probability Measure

• Axioms– For any event A,– P(U)=1– If the intersection of A and B= , then

P(A+B)=P(A)+P(B)

0)(AP

Continuous Random Variables

• Can take values anywhere within continuous ranges

• Probability density function

xxfx allfor)(0

1d)( xxfx

xxfbxaPb

ax d)(

x

fx(x)

a b

Histograms

• A graph of continuous data• Approximates a pdf in the limit of large n

0

5

Histogram of Crankpin Diameters

Diameter, Pin #1

Freq

uenc

y

Measures of Central Tendency

• Expected value

• Mean = E(x)

• Arithmetic average

Sx xxfxgxgE d)()())((

n

iix

n 1

1

Measures of Dispersion• Variance

• Standard deviation

• Sample variance

• nth central moment

• nth moment about m

)))((( 2xExE

)))((()( 22 xExExVAR

n

ii xx

nS

1

22 )(1

1

)))((( nxExE

))(( nmxE

Sums of Random Variables• Average of the sum is the sum of the

average (regardless of distribution and independence)

• Variance also sums iff independent

• This is the origin of the RSS rule– Beware of the independence restriction!

)()()( yExEyxE

222 )()()( yxyx

Concept Test• A bracket holds a component as shown.

The dimensions are independent random variables with standard deviations as noted.Approximately what is the standard deviation of the gap?A) 0.011”B) 0.01”C) 0.001”

"001.0"01.0

gap

Expectation Shift

x

y(x)

E(x)

y(E(x))

E(y(x))

S

fx(x)fy(y(x))

S=E(y(x))- y(E(x)) Under utility theory,S is the only differencebetween probabilistic and deterministic design

Probability Distribution of Sums

• If z is the sum of two random variables x and y

• Then the probability density function of z can be computed by convolution

yxz

z

z yzxzp d)()()(

Convolutionz

z yzxzp d)()()(

Convolutionz

z yzxzp d)()()(

Central Limit Theorem

The mean of a sequence of n iid random variables with

– Finite

approximates a normal distribution in the limit of a large n.

0<)( 2ii xExE

Normal Distribution2

2

2)(

21)(

x

x exf

99.7%68.3%

1-2ppb

+6-6 +3+1-1-3

Engineering Tolerances

• Tolerance --The total amount by which a specified dimension is permitted to vary(ANSI Y14.5M)

• Every componentwithin spec addsto the yield (Y)

q

p(q)

L U

Y

y

p(y)

18

Process Capability Indices

• Process Capability Index

• Bias factor

• Performance Index

CU L

p/ 2

3

C C kpk p ( )1

k

U L

U L2

2( ) /

q

p(q)

L UU L2

U L2

Concept Test

• Motorola’s “6 sigma” programs suggest that we should strive for a Cp of 2.0. If this is achieved but the mean is off target so that k=0.5, estimate the process yield.

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

Pop Quiz• Assume we wish to estimate the effect of ball

position on the ramp on swirl time. The experimental error causes = 1 sec in the response. We run the experiment 4 times.What is the error our estimate of swirl time?A) = 1 secB) = 1/2 secC) = 1/4 sec

Ball

RampFunnel

History of DoE

• 1926 – R. A. Fisher introduced the idea of factorial design• 1950-70 – Response surface methods • 1987 – G. Taguchi, System of Experimental Design

Full Factorial Design• This is the 24

• All main effects and interactions can be resolved

• Scales very poorly with number of factors

-1-1-1-1+1-1-1-1-1+1-1-1+1+1-1-1-1-1+1-1+1-1+1-1-1+1+1-1+1+1+1-1-1-1-1+1+1-1-1+1-1+1-1+1+1+1-1+1-1-1+1+1+1-1+1+1-1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1

ResponseDCBA

-1-1-1-1+1-1-1-1-1+1-1-1+1+1-1-1-1-1+1-1+1-1+1-1-1+1+1-1+1+1+1-1-1-1-1+1+1-1-1+1-1+1-1+1+1+1-1+1-1-1+1+1+1-1+1+1-1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1

ResponseDCBA

Replication and Precision

“the same precision as if the whole …

had been devoted to one single component”

– Fisher

The average of trials 1 through 8 has a of 1/8 that of each trial

Resolution and AliasingTrial A B C D E F G

1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -12 -1 -1 -1 +1 +1 +1 +13 -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 +1 +14 -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 -1 -15 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +16 +1 -1 +1 +1 -1 +1 -17 +1 +1 -1 -1 +1 +1 -18 +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 -1 +1

27-4 Design (aka “orthogonal array L8”)

Resolution III.

FG=-A+1+1+1+1-1-1-1-1

Projective Property

A

B

C

+

-

+

+

--

Considered important for exploiting sparsity of effects.

DOE – Key Assumptions• Pure experimental error

error in observations is random & independent • Hierarchy

lower order effects are more likely to be significant than higher order effects

• Sparsity of effectsthere are few important effects

• Effect heredityfor an interaction to be significant, at least one parent should be significant

Sparsity of Effects• An experimenter may

list several factors• They usually affect the

response to greatly varying degrees

• The drop off is surprisingly steep (~1/n2)

• Not sparse if prior knowledge is used or if factors are screened

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Pareto ordered factorsFa

ctor

effe

cts

Hierarchy• Main effects are usually

more important than two-factor interactions

• Two-way interactions are usually more important than three-factor interactions

• And so on• Taylor’s series seems to

support the idea

A B C

AB AC BC

D

AD BD CD

ABC ABD BCDACD

ABCD!

)()()(

0 nafax

n

n

n

Inheritance

• Two-factor interactions are most likely when both participating factors (parents?) are strong

• Two-way interactions are least likely when neither parent is strong

• And so on

A B C

AB AC BC

D

AD BD CD

ABC ABD BCDACD

ABCD

Resolution• II Main effects are aliased with main effects• III Main effects are clear of other main

effects but aliased with two-factor interactions• IV Main effects are clear of other main

effects and clear of two-factor interactions but main effects are aliased with three-factor interactions and two-factor interactions are aliased with other two-factor interactions

• V Two-factor interactions are clear of other two-factor interactions but are aliased with three factor interactions…

Discussion Point

• What are the four most important factors affecting swirl time?

• If you want to have sparsity of effects and hierarchy, how would you formulate the variables?

Important Concepts in DOE• Resolution – the ability of an experiment to

provide estimates of effects that are clear of other effects

• Sparsity of Effects – factor effects are few• Hierarchy – interactions are generally less

significant than main effects• Inheritance – if an interaction is significant, at

least one of its “parents” is usually significant• Efficiency – ability of an experiment to

estimate effects with small error variance

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

Major Concepts of Taguchi Method

• Variation causes quality loss• Two-step optimization• Parameter design via orthogonal arrays• Inducing noise (outer arrays)• Interactions and confirmation

y

L(y)

Loss Function Concept

• Quantify the economic consequences of performance degradation due to variation

What should the function be?

y

L(y)

Ao

Fraction Defective Fallacy

• ANSI seems to imply a “goalpost” mentality

• But, what is the difference between – 1 and 2?– 2 and 3?

321

Isn’t a continuous function more appropriate?

m m+m-

A Generic Loss Function

• Desired properties– Zero at nominal value– Equal to cost at

specification limit– C1 continuous

• Taylor series y

L(y)

Ao

)()(!

1)( )(

0

afaxn

xf nn

n

m m+m-

y

L(y)

quadratic quality loss function

"goal post" loss function

Ao

m m+m-

Nominal-the-best• Defined as

• Average loss is proportional to the 2nd momentabout m

22 )()( myAyL

o

o

y

L(y)

quadratic quality loss function

Ao

m m+m-

Average Quality Loss

222 )()]([ mAyLE

o

o

probability density function

Other Loss Functions

• Smaller the better

• Larger the better

• Asymmetric

22)( yAyL

o

o

22 1)(

yAyL oo

mymyA

mymyA

yL

Lower

o

Upper

o

if)(

if)()(

22

22

Who is the better target shooter?

Sam John

Who is the better target shooter?

Sam John

Sam can just adjust his sights

John requires lengthy training

The “P” Diagram

Product / Process

Response

Noise Factors

Control Factors

There are usually more control factors than responses

Exploiting Non-linearity

Control Factor

Response

Use your extra “degrees of freedom” and search for robust

set points.

Inner and Outer (Crossed) Arrays • Induce the same noise factor levels for each

row in a balanced manner Control Factors

Expt.No.

A B C D

1 1 1 1 12 1 2 2 23 1 3 3 34 2 1 2 35 2 2 3 16 2 3 1 27 3 1 3 28 3 2 1 39 3 3 2 1

1 1 2 2 N11 2 1 2 N21 2 2 1 N3

inner xouter =L9xL4=

36

Compounding Noise • If the physics are understood qualitatively, worst case

combinations may be identified a priori

Control FactorsExpt.No.

A B C D

1 1 1 1 12 1 2 2 23 1 3 3 34 2 1 2 35 2 2 3 16 2 3 1 27 3 1 3 28 3 2 1 39 3 3 2 1

1 1 2 2 N11 2 1 2 N21 2 2 1 N3

inner xouter =L9xL4=

3618

Signal to Noise Ratio• PERformance Measure Independent of

Adjustment PERMIA (two-step optimization) Control Factors

Expt.No.

A B C D

1 1 1 1 12 1 2 2 23 1 3 3 34 2 1 2 35 2 2 3 16 2 3 1 27 3 1 3 28 3 2 1 39 3 3 2 1

1 1 2 2 N11 2 1 2 N21 2 2 1 N3

2

2

10log10

For each row, take an average andstandard deviation

Factor Effects on S/N Ratio

A1

A2

A3

B1

B2

B3C1

C2

C3

D1

D2 D3

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

Factor Effect Plots

edcbaDCBA ikjiikji ),,,(Prediction Equation

Choose the best levels

Scaling factor?

Factor Effects on S/N Ratio

A1

A2

A3

B1

B2

B3C1

C2

C3

D1

D2 D3

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

Confirmation

edcbaDCBA ikjiikji ),,,(

Build the best plane

Check result against prediction

What is an Interaction?• If I carry out this experiment, I will find that:

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

B1 B2 B3

A1A2A3

If there are significant interactions, the prediction

may fail to confirm

Control FactorsExpt.No.

A B C D

1 1 1 2 2 24.882 1 2 2 2 21.783 1 3 2 2 20.174 2 1 2 2 21.385 2 2 2 2 22.626 2 3 2 2 22.027 3 1 2 2 25.038 3 2 2 2 19.939 3 3 2 2 20.58

Major Concepts of Taguchi Method

• Variation causes quality loss• Two-step optimization• Parameter design via orthogonal arrays• Inducing noise (outer arrays)• Interactions and confirmation

Some Concerns with Taguchi Methods

• Interactions can often cause failure to confirm

• Two step optimization not really needed• Use of S/N often not a useful as modeling

the response explicitly• Some experts consider crossed arrays are

less efficient than putting noise in the inner array

References• Byrne, Diane M. and Taguchi, Shin

“The Taguchi Approach to Parameter Design”Quality Progress, Dec 1987.

• Phadke, Madhav S., 1989, QualityEngineering Using Robust DesignPrentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1989.

• Logothetis and Wynn, Quality Through Design, Oxford Series on Advanced Manufacturing, 1994.

• Wu and Hamada, 2000, Experiments:Planning, Analysis and Parameter Design Optimization, Wiley & Sons, Inc., NY.

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

A Model

1if),0(0if)1,0(

)(i

2i

cNN

f ii

pi )1Pr(

effects are normally distributedtwo classes – strong and weak

effect sparsity

Chipman, H., M. Hamada, and C. F. J. Wu, 2001, “A Bayesian Variable Selection Approach for Analyzing Designed Experiments with Complex Aliasing”, Technometrics 39(4)372-381.

2if1if0if

),1Pr(

ji11

ji01

ji00

ppp

jiij effect hierarchy & inheritance

kji

n

i

n

ijj

n

jkk

ijkji

n

i

n

ijj

ij

n

iiin xxxxxxxxxy

1 1 11 1121 ),,,(

Robust Design MethodEvaluation Approach

1. Instantiate models of multiple “engineering systems”

2. For each system, simulate different robust design methods

3. For each system/method pair, perform a confirmation experiment

4. Analyze the data

Frey, D. D., and X. Li, 2004, “Validating Robust Design Methods, accepted for ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference, September 28 - October 2, Salt Lake City, UT.

Including Noise Factors in the Model

1),0(~ 1 miwNIDxi

11,1 nmixi

),0(~ 22wNID

kji

n

i

n

ijj

n

jkk

ijkji

n

i

n

ijj

ij

n

iiin xxxxxxxxxy

1 1 11 1121 ),,,(

The first m are noise factors

The rest are control factors with two levels

Observations of the response y are subject to

experimental error

Confirmation

Using a polynomial response has the advantage that response variance is easily computable

m

i

m

ijj

m

jkk

ijk

m

i

m

ijj

n

jkmk

kijkij

m

i

n

ijmj

n

jkmk

kjijk

n

ijmj

jijinmm

x

xxxwxxx

1 1 1

2

1 1

2

1

2

1 1 11

2121

2 ),,,(

Fitting the Model to Data• Collect published full factorial data on various

engineering systems – More than data 100 sets collected so far

• Use Lenth method to sort “active” and “inactive” effects

• Estimate the probabilities in the model• Use other free parameters to make model pdf

fit the data pdf

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Effects

Per

cent

age

Distribution of Effects

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

EffectsP

erce

ntag

e(%

)

Distribution of Effects

Different Variants of the Model

p p11 p01 p00 p111 p011 p001 p000

Basic WH 0.25 0.25 0.1 0 0.25 0.1 0 0 Basic low w 0.25 0.25 0.1 0 0.25 0.1 0 0

Basic 2nd order 0.25 0.25 0.1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/AFitted WH 0.43 0.31 0.04 0 0.17 0.08 0.02 0

Fitted low w 0.43 0.31 0.04 0 0.17 0.08 0.02 0 Fitted 2nd order 0.43 0.31 0.04 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

c s1 s2 w1 w2

Basic WH 10 1 1 1 1 Basic low w 10 1 1 0.1 0.1

Basic 2nd order 10 1 0 1 1 Fitted WH 15 1/3 2/3 1 1

Fitted low w 15 1/3 2/3 0.1 0.1 Fitted 2nd order 15 1/3 0 1 1

The model that drives much of DOE

& Robust Design

The model I think is most realistic

Results Basic Fitted

Method Experiments WH low w

2nd

order WH low

w2nd

order 37 22 1,024 60% 81% 58% 50% 58% 40%

137 22 III512 44% 80% 52% 45% 58% 40%

4102 64 8% 8% 56% 18% 9% 38%

5102 32 9% 3% 33% 16% 9% 17%

1347 22 IIIIII32 12% 8% 51% 16% 25% 38%

132 IIIOFAT 32 39% 56% 43% 36% 42% 35%

OFATOFAT 32 31% 37% 41% 33% 31% 27% 6102 16 4% 4% 8% 4% 2% 0%

The single array is extremely effectiveif the typical modeling assumptions of

DOE hold

Results Basic Fitted

Method Experiments WH low w

2nd

order WH low

w2nd

order 37 22 1,024 60% 81% 58% 50% 58% 40%

137 22 III512 44% 80% 52% 45% 58% 40%

4102 64 8% 8% 56% 18% 9% 38%

5102 32 9% 3% 33% 16% 9% 17%

1347 22 IIIIII32 12% 8% 51% 16% 25% 38%

132 IIIOFAT 32 39% 56% 43% 36% 42% 35%

OFATOFAT 32 31% 37% 41% 33% 31% 27% 6102 16 4% 4% 8% 4% 2% 0%

The single array is terribly ineffective if the more realistic assumptions are

made

Results Basic Fitted

Method Experiments WH low w

2nd

order WH low

w2nd

order 37 22 1,024 60% 81% 58% 50% 58% 40%

137 22 III512 44% 80% 52% 45% 58% 40%

4102 64 8% 8% 56% 18% 9% 38%

5102 32 9% 3% 33% 16% 9% 17%

1347 22 IIIIII32 12% 8% 51% 16% 25% 38%

132 IIIOFAT 32 39% 56% 43% 36% 42% 35%

OFATOFAT 32 31% 37% 41% 33% 31% 27% 6102 16 4% 4% 8% 4% 2% 0%

Taguchi’s crossed arrays are more effective than single arrays

A Comparison of Taguchi's Product Array and the Combined Array in

Robust Parameter DesignWe have run an experiment where we have done both designs simultaneously (product and combined). In our experiment, we found that the product array performed better for the identification of effects on the variance. An explanation for this might be that the combinedarray relies too much on the factor sparsityassumption.

Joachim Kunert, Universitaet DortmundThe Eleventh Annual Spring Research Conference (SRC) on Statistics in Industry

and Technology will be held May 19-21, 2004.

Results Basic Fitted

Method Experiments WH low w

2nd

order WH low

w2nd

order 37 22 1,024 60% 81% 58% 50% 58% 40%

137 22 III512 44% 80% 52% 45% 58% 40%

4102 64 8% 8% 56% 18% 9% 38%

5102 32 9% 3% 33% 16% 9% 17%

1347 22 IIIIII32 12% 8% 51% 16% 25% 38%

132 IIIOFAT 32 39% 56% 43% 36% 42% 35%

OFATOFAT 32 31% 37% 41% 33% 31% 27% 6102 16 4% 4% 8% 4% 2% 0%

An adaptive approach is quite effective if the more realistic assumptions are

made

Results Basic Fitted

Method Experiments WH low w

2nd

order WH low

w2nd

order 37 22 1,024 60% 81% 58% 50% 58% 40%

137 22 III512 44% 80% 52% 45% 58% 40%

4102 64 8% 8% 56% 18% 9% 38%

5102 32 9% 3% 33% 16% 9% 17%

1347 22 IIIIII32 12% 8% 51% 16% 25% 38%

132 IIIOFAT 32 39% 56% 43% 36% 42% 35%

OFATOFAT 32 31% 37% 41% 33% 31% 27% 6102 16 4% 4% 8% 4% 2% 0%

An adaptive approach is a solid choice(among the fast/frugal set) no matter what

modeling assumptions are made

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

Sampling Techniques for Computer Experiments

RandomSampling

StratifiedSampling

Latin Hypercube Sampling

Proposed Method• Simply extend quadrature to many

variables• Will be exact to if factor effects of 4th

polynomial order linearly superpose• Lacks projective property• Poor divergence

z1

z2

z3

1.3556

2.8750

-1.3556

-2.8750

Why Neglect Interactions?

n

i

n

jij

n

kjk

n

lkl ijkkijllikklijjljkkliijlijllijkkikllijjk

jklliijkjjkkiilljjlliikkkklliijjijkl

n

i

n

jij

n

kjk

iijkjkkkiijkjjjkijkkijjjijjkiiik

ijkkiiijjjkkiikkiikkiijjjjkkiijjikkijj

jjkiikjkkiijijkkijjkiijkijk

n

i

n

jij

iijjjjjjiijjiiiiiijjjjijjiiiijjjij

iiijijiijjjjiijjiiiijjijji

iijjijjjiiijijjiijij

n

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

1 1 1 1

2

1 1 1

2222

1 1

222222

1

22222

22222

2222

6666

64442

22333

2424666

64422

8151533

96241562))(( z

lk

n

j

n

jii

n

jkk

n

kll

jiijklk

n

j

n

jii

n

kkk

jiijkji

n

j

n

jii

ij

n

iii zzzzzzzzzzz

1 1 1 11 1 11 110)( If the response

is polynomial

Then the effects of single factors

have larger contributions to

than the mixed terms.

Fourth Order – RWH Model Fit to Data

LegendQuadrature 29 samplesCubature 73 samplesHSS 29 samplesHSS 290 samplesLHS 29 samplesLHS 290 samples

d=7

4d+1=29

d2+3d+3=73

0 5 10 15 200

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

% Error in Estimating Standard Deviation

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Continuous-Stirred Tank Reactor

• Objective is to generate chemical species B at a rate of 60 mol/min

)()( RBBRAAip HrHrVTTCFQ

RTEA

AiA Aek

CC /01 RTEB

B

ARTE

ABiB ek

CekCC

A

/0

/0

1

ARTE

AA Cekr A /0

ARTE

ABRTE

BB CekCekr AB /0/0

Q

F Ti CAi CBi

F T CA CB

Q

F Ti CAi CBi

F T CA CB

Adapted from Kalagnanam and Diwekar, 1997, “An Efficient Sampling Technique for Off-Line Quality Control”, Technometrics (39 (3) 308-319.

Comparing HSS and QuadratureHammersley Sequence

• Required ~150 points• 1% accuracy 2

• 2 from 1,638 to 232• Nominally on target

• Mean 15% off target

Quadrature• Used 25 points• 0.3% accuracy in• 9% accuracy in (y-60)2 far

from optimum• 0.8% accuracy in (y-60)2

near to optimum• Better optimum, on target

and slightly lower variance• E(L(y)) = 208.458

0 20 40 60 80 1000

0.01

0.02

0.03

Production Rate (mol/min)

Prob

abili

ty d

ensi

ty (m

in/m

ol)

HSS

quadrature

Plan for the Session

• Basic concepts in probability and statistics• Review design of experiments• Basics of Robust Design• Research topics

– Model-based assessment of RD methods – Faster computer-based robust design– Robust invention

Prob

lem

defin

ition

Con

cept

desi

gn

Det

ail

desi

gn

Man

ufac

ture

Use

Perc

enta

ge o

f tot

al 100

50

75

25

Quality determined & costs committed

Design flexibility

Lifecycle phase

Source:Russell B. Ford and Philip Barkan

Robust parameter designAn opportunity

Defining “Robustness Invention”

• A “robustness invention” is a technical or design innovation whose primary purpose is to make performance more consistent despite the influence of noise factors

• The patent summary and prior art sections usually provide clues

Example -- A Pendulum Robust to Temperature Variations

• Period of the swing is affected by length

• Length is affected by temperature• Consistency is a key to accurate

timekeeping• Using materials with different thermal

expansion coefficients, the length can be made insensitive to temp

Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ)

• Genrich Altshuller sought to identify patterns in the patent literature

• Defined problems as contradictions• Provided a large database of solutions • Stimulate designer’s creativity by

presenting past designs appropriate to their current challenge

Searching for Robustness Inventions

• Keyword search in USPTO database• There seem to be several thousand

Search Term Number of Hits Independent 114,201 Uncoupling 2,189 Decoupling 6,505 Noise compensation 22,092 Noise control 142,138 Noise conditioning 10,787 Resistant 3,535 Acclimation 712 Desensitize 447 Sweet spot 1317 Operating window 728 TOTAL 867,472

Search Term Number of Hits Insensitive 35,708 Less sensitive 12,253 Robust 27,913 Accurate 221,600 Reliable 211,533 Repeatable 16,458 Tolerant 13,765 Despite changes 1,323 Regardless of changes 1,147 Independent of 20,521 Self compensating 1,269 Force Cancellation 59

Signal Response

Noise

Classifying Inventions via the P-Diagram

Patent #5,024,105 –Viscosity-insensitive

variable-area flowmeter

Patent #5,483,840 –“System for

Measuring Flow”

Patent #4,487,333 –“Fluid Dispensing System”

Courtesy of the United States Patent and Trademark Office, http://www.uspto.gov.��

Discussion Point

Ball

RampFunnel

Response =the time the ball remains in the funnel

Noise Factor = 2 Types of Ball

Name some ways that you might modify the ball and ramp equipment or procedure to make the system robust to ball type.

Conclusions So Far• Effective strategies for experimentation

should be adaptive (not always, but under a broad range of scenarios)

• Resolution is not always required for reliable improvement

• Simulating the process of experimentation provides insights I can’t get from deduction alone

Questions?

Dan FreyAssistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Engineering Systems