mstar ansys 10 02 09

7
? Ansys, Inc. ANSS [Nasdaq] | QQ TM Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry 41.05 USD 30.00 USD 15.00 USD 60.00 USD High Narrow A Technical & System Software . Currency amounts expressed with "$" are in U.S. dollars (USD) unless otherwise denoted. Near-term demand for Ansys’ engineering simulation solutions will reflect the global economy. by Rafael Garcia Stock Analyst Analysts covering this company do not own its stock. Pricing data through February 09, 2010. Rating updated as of February 09, 2010. 06 07 08 09 10 20.0 30.0 40.0 Stock Price Thesis Jan. 05, 2010 We believe Ansys’ wide portfolio of niche engineering simulation solutions combined with a robust competitive advantage will enable the firm to continue expanding and earn excess returns on capital. However, the economic slowdown and the firm’s exposure to the automotive and electronics industries will prove challenging in the near term. Ansys provides a wide range of engineering simulation solutions that allow users to analyze virtually the performance of conceptual designs of products and processes. The firm’s solutions support finite element analysis, which simulates how structures bend or deform under the effect of outer forces, and computational fluid dynamics, which models the behavior of fluid flows, chemical reactions, and heat transfer. For example, using Ansys’ tools, an engineer can estimate the scatter path and speed of different objects involved in a detonation. Engineers use Ansys’ solutions to analyze, test, and verify product and process designs throughout different stages of the development lifecycle. This process allows companies to reduce the time from conception to production by eliminating the need to build and test physical mockups, increase profits by minimizing use of materials and weight, or lower costs by maximizing the efficiency and security of products. High switching costs for clients and significant barriers to entry enable Ansys to generate hefty profits and provide the firm with a narrow economic moat. It takes time for engineers to learn a new simulation, too, and companies usually employ the same simulation solution throughout the development cycle of their products. In addition, during its 40 years in business, the company has accumulated a significant amount of intellectual property that would take considerable time and resources for a competitor to replicate. Despite its competitive advantages, the company faces meaningful challenges, in our opinion. First, while large computer-aided design (CAD) providers such as Autodesk and Dassault Systemes license some of Ansys’ low-end technology to provide simulation functionality for their own solutions, these companies have been improving their respective simulation technologies to make their products more attractive. We are concerned that in the not-too-distant future, deep-pocketed CAD companies, seeking to spur demand for their CAD solutions, might consider developing their own engineering simulation technology and thus compete with Ansys. Second, MSC.Software, another veteran--albeit smaller--rival in the area of engineering simulation, offers alternative engineering simulation products. In the past few years, MSC has been struggling to switch its users from desktop-based solutions to enterprisewide simulation solutions, but recent results indicate that some of its large customers, such as Boeing and Tata Motors, are beginning to adopt MSC’s solutions. Ansys has not been complacent. To provide a more comprehensive set of solutions to its clients, in 2008 the company bought Ansoft, a provider of electronic design automation (EDA) solutions whose products are used to simulate the electronic design of cell phones, satellite communications systems, Internet network devices, and electronic sensors. The early results of this acquisition have been commendable, and we expect Ansys to further benefit from cross- and up-selling opportunities as it leverages Ansoft’s solutions and customer base. Valuation Our fair value estimate is $30 per share, which reflects our revenue growth and profitability assumptions in light of the company’s exposure to the automobile and electronics industries. We model that revenue will expand at a compound annual rate of around 11% during the next five years, including 8% revenue growth during 2009 as a result of weak demand for new licenses. Although the

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Page 1: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

?

Ansys, Inc. ANSS [Nasdaq] | QQ

TM

Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry41.05 USD 30.00 USD 15.00 USD 60.00 USD High Narrow A Technical & System Software .

Currency amounts expressed with "$"are in U.S. dollars (USD) unlessotherwise denoted.

Near-term demand for Ansys’ engineering simulation

solutions will reflect the global economy.

by Rafael GarciaStock AnalystAnalysts covering this company do notown its stock.

Pricing data through February 09, 2010.Rating updated as ofFebruary 09, 2010.

06 07 08 09 10

20.0

30.0

40.0

Stock Price

Thesis Jan. 05, 2010

We believe Ansys’ wide portfolio of niche engineeringsimulation solutions combined with a robust competitiveadvantage will enable the firm to continue expanding andearn excess returns on capital. However, the economicslowdown and the firm’s exposure to the automotive andelectronics industries will prove challenging in the nearterm. Ansys provides a wide range of engineering simulationsolutions that allow users to analyze virtually theperformance of conceptual designs of products andprocesses. The firm’s solutions support finite elementanalysis, which simulates how structures bend or deformunder the effect of outer forces, and computational fluiddynamics, which models the behavior of fluid flows,chemical reactions, and heat transfer. For example, usingAnsys’ tools, an engineer can estimate the scatter pathand speed of different objects involved in a detonation. Engineers use Ansys’ solutions to analyze, test, and verifyproduct and process designs throughout different stagesof the development lifecycle. This process allowscompanies to reduce the time from conception toproduction by eliminating the need to build and testphysical mockups, increase profits by minimizing use ofmaterials and weight, or lower costs by maximizing theefficiency and security of products. High switching costs for clients and significant barriers toentry enable Ansys to generate hefty profits and providethe firm with a narrow economic moat. It takes time forengineers to learn a new simulation, too, and companiesusually employ the same simulation solution throughoutthe development cycle of their products. In addition,during its 40 years in business, the company hasaccumulated a significant amount of intellectual propertythat would take considerable time and resources for acompetitor to replicate.

Despite its competitive advantages, the company facesmeaningful challenges, in our opinion. First, while largecomputer-aided design (CAD) providers such as Autodeskand Dassault Systemes license some of Ansys’ low-endtechnology to provide simulation functionality for theirown solutions, these companies have been improving theirrespective simulation technologies to make their productsmore attractive. We are concerned that in thenot-too-distant future, deep-pocketed CAD companies,seeking to spur demand for their CAD solutions, mightconsider developing their own engineering simulationtechnology and thus compete with Ansys. Second,MSC.Software, another veteran--albeit smaller--rival inthe area of engineering simulation, offers alternativeengineering simulation products. In the past few years,MSC has been struggling to switch its users fromdesktop-based solutions to enterprisewide simulationsolutions, but recent results indicate that some of its largecustomers, such as Boeing and Tata Motors, are beginningto adopt MSC’s solutions. Ansys has not been complacent. To provide a morecomprehensive set of solutions to its clients, in 2008 thecompany bought Ansoft, a provider of electronic designautomation (EDA) solutions whose products are used tosimulate the electronic design of cell phones, satellitecommunications systems, Internet network devices, andelectronic sensors. The early results of this acquisition have beencommendable, and we expect Ansys to further benefitfrom cross- and up-selling opportunities as it leveragesAnsoft’s solutions and customer base. Valuation Our fair value estimate is $30 per share, which reflects ourrevenue growth and profitability assumptions in light ofthe company’s exposure to the automobile and electronicsindustries. We model that revenue will expand at acompound annual rate of around 11% during the next fiveyears, including 8% revenue growth during 2009 as aresult of weak demand for new licenses. Although the

Page 2: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

Ansys, Inc. ANSS [Nasdaq] | QQ

TM

Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry41.05 USD 30.00 USD 15.00 USD 60.00 USD High Narrow A Technical & System Software .

Close Competitors Currency(Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Oper Income Net Income

Ansys, Inc.

Synopsys

Parametric Technology Corporation

Mentor Graphics Corporation

USD

USD

USD

USD

3,641 502 169 111

3,103 1,360 208 168

1,942 938 19 32

787 808 -5 -30

Morningstar data as of February 09, 2010.

company has a long record of highly profitable operations,we expect operating profitability to decrease during 2009as the firm integrates Ansoft. In addition, we aretempering our expectations for near-term profitabilityimprovements because of the current economic downturn.As a result, we estimate operating margins will remain inthe mid- to high 20s throughout 2010. We continue tobelieve that the adoption and usage of Ansys’ tools holdsa promising future as companies face shorter productlifecycles under increasing competition. However, thecurrent economic environment has reduced and willcontinue to reduce demand for the company’s solutions.Our modeled assumptions generate returns on investedcapital that average 12% during the next five years, whichare above the estimated cost of equity that we use todiscount our projected cash flows. Risk Ansys’ clients tend to operate in cyclical industries, suchas aerospace and automotive. Therefore, a protractedeconomic slowdown could crimp clients’ research anddevelopment budgets, resulting in pricing pressures orlower demand for the company’s products. In addition, thecompany is likely to face new competition from other EDAsolution providers, such as Mentor Graphics andSynopsys, as a result of the acquisition of Ansoft. Finally,the large size of Ansys’ latest acquisitions raises thepossibility of integration issues. Bulls Say

The firm has ample room to expand within its existingcustomer base. Clients facing time constraints oftenpurchase several licenses per engineer to run multiplesimulations in parallel, as this shortens the timerequired to analyze the effects of multiple productdesigns. Ansys stands to benefit as companies createincreasingly complex products, such as electronicsensors or satellite communications equipment, whichare subject to a wider range of physical constraints. Ansoft had a relatively small footprint in Europe beforeits acquisition. Ansys now has the opportunity to cross-and up-sell its combined product portfolio between bothcustomer bases. The company’s strong generation of free cash flow yearafter year is noteworthy.

Bears Say

Although management has a good record ofsuccessfully identifying, acquiring, and integrating morethan seven companies during the past eight years,integration issues can arise as these acquisitions havebecome larger in size. Ansys’ exposure to cyclical industries, such asaerospace and automotive companies, can hurt revenuegrowth. About 66% of Ansys’ revenue comes from abroad. Astrong appreciation of the U.S. dollar can negativelyaffect its revenue. Competition is intense for simulation applications, andlarge CAD companies, such as Autodesk and DassaultSystemes, are also in the mix. Furthermore, the recentacquisition of Ansoft also brings in new competitors inthe field of EDA, such as Mentor Graphics andSynopsis.

Financial Overview

© 2010 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported.The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.

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Page 3: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

Ansys, Inc. ANSS [Nasdaq] | QQ

TM

Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry41.05 USD 30.00 USD 15.00 USD 60.00 USD High Narrow A Technical & System Software .

Growth: Revenue has increased at a 33% compoundannual rate during the past five years because of solidinternal expansion and several acquisitions. Although weexpect weak growth during 2009, revenue should expandin the low teens during the next five years on average,driven by demand for simulation engineering tools. Profitability: During the past five years, operating marginshave hovered around 30%. Although results after theacquisition of Ansoft have been encouraging, we believeoperating margins will probably decline during 2009 as aresult of Ansoft’s integration and the poor economicenvironment. Still, we project returns on invested capitalto remain above the cost of capital during the next fiveyears. Financial Health: Ansys is in good financial health, in ouropinion. As of Sept. 30, the company had $294 million incash and equivalents and about $232 million in debt,which it assumed to partially finance the acquisitions ofAnsoft. Company Overview Profile: Ansys, based in Canonsburg, Pa., developssoftware solutions for design analysis and optimization.Using the company’s products, engineers can constructcomputer models of structures or processes to simulateperformance conditions and physical responses to varyinglevels of stress, pressure, temperature, and velocity.Companies adopt Ansys software to accelerate a product’stime to market, reduce production costs, and optimizeproduct safety. Strategy: Ansys’ strategy is to provide a software platformthat encompasses a wide range of engineering simulationdisciplines. The firm has actively acquired companies topropel revenue growth, expand its product offering, andenter new vertical markets.

Management: James Cashman III joined Ansys in 1997and became CEO in 2000. His previous positions at otherIT companies give him a solid background in the softwareindustry, in our opinion. In 2008, Cashman received asalary of $510,000 and total compensation of $2.2 million,which we consider slightly excessive. As of January 2009,he owned almost 2% (or 1.7 million shares) of thecompany’s stock. Peter Smith became chairman in 1995after stepping down as CEO. We also see his extensivebackground in the engineering software industry as a plusfor the company. All directors and executive officers ownabout 5% of the company, which on a dollar basis alignstheir interests with minority shareholders’, in our opinion.Overall, we believe Ansys has excellent shareholderstewardship. We like that the CEO and chairman positionsare held by separate individuals. Our only concerns arethat management pay seems very generous and that theboard of directors is staggered, which could thwart atakeover attempt.

© 2010 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported.The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.

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Page 4: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

Ansys, Inc. ANSS [Nasdaq] | QQ

TM

Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry41.05 USD 30.00 USD 15.00 USD 60.00 USD High Narrow A Technical & System Software .

Analyst Notes

Aug. 07, 2009 Ansys’ Business Remains Resilient

Ansys’ second-quarter results showed the remarkableresiliency of the company’s business model. While organicrevenue remained flat on a year-over-year basis, recentacquisitions enabled the company to post a 10% revenuegrowth compared with the prior-year period. Althoughmanagement narrowed its expected revenue growth rangefor the current year, the company is tracking our near-termexpectations. Therefore, we are leaving our fair valueestimate unchanged. Given the current economicenvironment and similar to previous quarters, Ansys’ clients

remained inclined to lease, rather than buy, softwarelicenses. However, the firm continues to enjoy pricingstability--particularly in the high-end segment of itsproducts--and stable renewal rates. While we do notanticipate a full-fledged recovery in the near term, Ansys’results reinforce our view that the computer-aided design(CAD) industry is experiencing increasing levels of stability.

© 2010 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported.The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.

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Disclaimers & DisclosuresNo Morningstar employees are officers or directors of this company. Morningstar Inc. does not own more than 1% of the shares of this company. Analystscovering this company do not own its stock. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Page 5: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

®Morningstar Stock Data Sheet Pricing data thru Feb. 09, 2010 Rating updated as of Feb. 09, 2010Pricing data thru Feb. 09, 2010 Rating updated as of Feb. 09, 2010 Fiscal year-end: December

Ansys, Inc. ANSS Sales USD Mil Mkt Cap USD Mil Industry Sector502 3,641 Technical

& System Software Software

TMMorningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship GradeQQ 41.05 30.00 High Narrow A

per share prices in USD

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD

1.0

3.0

7.0

19.0

39.0

0.7

1.0

3.752.02

7.222.41

7.443.40

10.394.58

16.989.03

22.9214.07

29.1217.89

42.6321.42

49.8620.55

43.9418.00

44.9940.24

Annual Price HighLowRecent Splits

Price VolatilityMonthly High/LowRel Strength to S&P 500

52 week High/Low44.99 - 18.00

10 Year High/Low49.86 - 2.02

Bear-Market Rank3 (10=worst)

Trading Volume Million

Stock Performance

2:1 2:1

Ansys, based in Canonsburg, Pa., develops software

solutions for design analysis and optimization. Using the

company’s products, engineers can construct computer

models of structures or processes to simulate performance

conditions and physical responses to varying levels of stress,

pressure, temperature, and velocity. Companies adopt Ansys

software to accelerate a product’s time to market, reduce

production costs, and optimize product safety.

275 Technology Drive Canonsburg, PA 15317Phone: 1 724 746-3304Website: http://www.ansys.com

Growth Rates Compound AnnualGrade: B 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr

Revenue % 24.1 44.6 33.3 23.8Operating Income % 33.9 42.4 41.1 27.2Earnings/Share % 26.5 25.7 30.9 22.5Dividends % . . . .

Book Value/Share % 61.0 55.3 44.8 32.3Stock Total Return % 58.4 17.3 19.5 32.2+/- Industry -6.2 20.0 12.2 32.0+/- Market 35.0 25.0 21.1 34.9

Profitability AnalysisGrade: D Current 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt

Return on Equity % 9.2 14.9 16.6 14.9Return on Assets % 6.0 10.4 10.3 5.8Fixed Asset Turns 14.4 19.1 6.7 6.8Inventory Turns . . 29.5 11.3Revenue/Employee USD K 286.8 245.6 . 863.4

Gross Margin % 80.7 82.5 66.7 41.5Operating Margin % 33.7 30.7 5.6 14.3Net Margin % 22.1 20.7 14.7 6.8Free Cash Flow/Rev % 35.5 35.0 18.2 0.0R&D/Rev % 15.6 0.2 . 11.2

*

*3Yr Avg data is displayed in place of 5Yr Avg

Financial PositionGrade: A 12-08 USD Mil 09-09 USD Mil

Cash 228 293Inventories . .

Receivables 157 118Current Assets 397 430

Fixed Assets 37 36Intangibles 1421 1379

Total Assets 1865 1853

Payables 3 10Short-Term Debt 30 .

Current Liabilities 268 244Long-Term Debt 249 .

Total Liabilities 682 596

Total Equity 1183 1257

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM FinancialsRevenue USD Mil63 74 85 91 114 135 158 264 385 478 502Gross Margin %92.5 91.2 86.6 87.1 83.7 86.4 87.1 78.5 79.7 80.9 80.7Oper Income USD Mil17 20 19 27 30 46 59 36 127 170 169Operating Margin %27.3 26.3 21.9 29.7 26.7 34.2 37.2 13.7 32.9 35.5 33.7

Net Income USD Mil15 16 14 19 21 35 44 14 82 112 111

Earnings Per Share USD. 0.25 0.22 0.31 0.34 0.53 0.65 0.19 1.02 1.29 1.20Dividends USD. . . . . . . . . . .

Shares Mil. 65 61 62 63 65 67 76 81 86 92Book Value Per Share USD1.09 1.29 1.57 2.07 2.81 3.52 6.94 8.19 13.19 14.17 14.17

Oper Cash Flow USD Mil18 23 24 22 39 51 68 90 127 197 190Cap Spending USD Mil-2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -8 -11 -17 -12Free Cash Flow USD Mil17 19 22 21 36 48 63 82 116 180 178

Valuation AnalysisCurrent 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt

Price/Earnings 34.1 49.8 . .

Forward P/E 21.6 . . 16.0Price/Cash Flow 19.8 19.7 18.4 .

Price/Free Cash Flow 21.2 21.4 23.6 .

Dividend Yield % . . 0.2 1.9Price/Book 2.9 3.9 4.5 .

Price/Sales 7.5 7.4 4.3 .

PEG Ratio 1.2 . . 1.4

Total Return %2.3 119.1 -18.1 96.5 61.5 33.2 1.9 90.7 -32.7 55.8 -5.5+/- Market-17.2 129.2 -5.1 119.9 35.1 24.2 -1.1 77.1 -36.2 94.3 -28.9+/- Industry38.7 137.3 6.4 47.2 37.0 20.1 -15.5 65.2 22.4 -22.0 -3.8

Dividend Yield %. . . . . . . . . . 0.0

Market Cap USD Mil178 356 294 608 1002 1364 1676 3246 2502 3855 3641

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM ProfitabilityReturn on Assets %. 18.3 12.9 15.5 13.9 16.5 16.1 2.4 8.9 7.9 6.0Return on Equity %. 24.2 19.1 22.9 19.5 22.9 21.9 3.7 14.0 12.2 9.2

Net Margin %23.4 21.9 16.1 20.8 18.8 25.7 27.8 5.4 21.4 23.3 22.1Asset Turnover. 0.84 0.80 0.74 0.74 0.64 0.58 0.45 0.42 0.34 0.27Financial Leverage. 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 09-09 Financial HealthWorking Capital USD Mil53 40 40 57 71 120 162 36 109 129 186Long-Term Debt USD Mil. . . . . . . 109 52 249 .

Total Equity USD Mil66 69 74 91 127 175 225 535 641 1183 1257Debt/Equity. . . . . . . 0.20 0.08 0.21 0.16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TTM ValuationPrice/Earnings11.3 27.7 16.6 29.6 30.5 32.8 117.7 40.6 21.6 36.1 34.1P/E vs. Market. . 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 6.8 2.4 1.3 3.3 .

Price/Sales2.5 4.5 3.5 5.6 7.9 9.1 6.0 8.7 5.1 8.0 7.5Price/Book2.6 4.8 3.2 4.8 5.7 6.1 3.1 5.1 2.1 3.1 2.9Price/Cash Flow8.0 16.1 14.3 16.3 20.6 21.1 17.7 26.5 12.3 21.0 19.8

Quarterly ResultsRevenue

Rev Growth

Earnings Per Share

USD Mil Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09

% Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09

USD Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09

Most Recent Period 135.3 128.2 128.2 128.2Prior Year Period 111.2 135.3 135.3 135.3

Most Recent Period 21.6 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3Prior Year Period 30.5 21.6 21.6 21.6

Most Recent Period 0.35 0.23 0.30 0.33Prior Year Period 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.29

Industry Peers by Market Cap

Major Fund Holders

Mkt Cap USD Mil Rev USD Mil P/E ROE%

% of shares

Ansys, Inc. 3641 502 34.1 9.2Synopsys 3103 1360 18.3 9.9

Parametric Technolog 1942 938 61.0 4.3

Fidelity Low-Priced Stock 5.91Baron Growth 2.56Columbia Acorn Z 2.04

TTM data based on rolling quarterly data if available; otherwise most recent annual data shown.

© 2010 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.

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Page 6: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks

Our Key Investing ConceptsEconomic Moat RatingDiscounted Cash FlowDiscount RateFair ValueUncertaintyMargin of SafetyConsider Buying/Consider SellingStewardship Grades

TMAt Morningstar, we evaluate stocks as pieces of abusiness, not as pieces of paper. We think that purchasingshares of superior businesses at discounts to theirintrinsic value and allowing them to compound their valueover long periods of time is the surest way to createwealth in the stock market. We rate stocks 1 through 5 stars, with 5 the best and 1the worst. Our star rating is based on our analyst’sestimate of how much a company’s business is worth pershare. Our analysts arrive at this "fair value estimate" byforecasting how much excess cash--or "free cashflow"--the firm will generate in the future, and thenadjusting the total for timing and risk. Cash generatednext year is worth more than cash generated several yearsdown the road, and cash from a stable and consistentlyprofitable business is worth more than cash from acyclical or unsteady business. Stocks trading at meaningful discounts to our fair valueestimates will receive high star ratings. For high-qualitybusinesses, we require a smaller discount than formediocre ones, for a simple reason: We have moreconfidence in our cash-flow forecasts for strongcompanies, and thus in our value estimates. If a stock’smarket price is significantly above our fair value estimate,it will receive a low star rating, no matter how wonderfulwe think the business is. Even the best company is a baddeal if an investor overpays for its shares. Our fair value estimates don’t change very often, butmarket prices do. So, a stock may gain or lose stars based

just on movement in the share price. If we think a stock’sfair value is $50, and the shares decline to $40 withoutmuch change in the value of the business, the star ratingwill go up. Our estimate of what the business is worthhasn’t changed, but the shares are more attractive as aninvestment at $40 than they were at $50. Because we focus on the long-term value of businesses,rather than short-term movements in stock prices, at timeswe may appear out of step with the overall stock market.When stocks are high, relatively few will receive ourhighest rating of 5 stars. But when the market tumbles,many more will likely garner 5 stars. Although you mightexpect to see more 5-star stocks as the market rises, wefind assets more attractive when they’re cheap. We calculate our star ratings nightly after the marketsclose, and issue them the following business day, which iswhy the rating date on our reports will always be theprevious business day. We update the text of our reportsas new information becomes available, usually about onceor twice per quarter. That is why you’ll see two dates onevery Morningstar stock report. Of course, we monitormarket events and all of our stocks every business day, soour ratings always reflect our analyst’s current opinion. Economic Moat Rating The Economic Moat Rating is our assessment of a firm’sability to earn returns consistently above its cost of capitalin the future, usually by virtue of some competitiveadvantage. Competition tends to drive down such

TM

TM

Morningstar ResearchMethodology for ValuingCompanies QQQQQ

Competitive Economic Company Fair Value UncertaintyAnalysis Moat Rating Valuation Estimate Assessment

TM

Analyst conducts The depth of the Analyst considers DCF model leads to An uncertaintycompany and industry firm’s competitive company financial the firm’s Fair Value assessmentresearch: advantage is rated: statements and Estimate, which establishes the competitive position anchors the rating margin ofManagement None to forecast future framework. safety required forinterviews Narrow cash flows. the stock rating.Conference calls Wide Trade-show visits Assumptions areCompetitor, supplier, input into a dis-distributor, and counted cash-flowcustomer interviews model.

The current stockprice relative to fairvalue, adjustedfor uncertainty,determines therating.

Q

QQ

QQQ

QQQQ

QQQQQ

© 2010 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported.The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.

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Page 7: Mstar Ansys 10 02 09

Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks (continued)

economic profits, but companies that can earn them for anextended time by creating a competitive advantagepossess an Economic Moat. We see these companies assuperior investments. Discounted Cash Flow This is a method for valuing companies that involvesprojecting the amount of cash a business will generate inthe future, subtracting the amount of cash that thecompany will need to reinvest in its business, and usingthe result to calculate the worth of the firm. We use thistechnique to value nearly all of the companies we cover. Discount Rate We use this number to adjust the value of our forecastedcash flows for the risk that they may not materialize. For aprofitable company in a steady line of business, we’ll usea lower discount rate, also known as "cost of capital,"than for a firm in a cyclical business with fiercecompetition, since there’s less risk clouding the firm’sfuture. Fair Value This is the output of our discounted cash-flow valuationmodels, and is our per-share estimate of a company’sintrinsic worth. We adjust our fair values for off-balancesheet liabilities or assets that a firm might have--forexample, we deduct from a company’s fair value if it hasissued a lot of stock options or has an under-fundedpension plan. Our fair value estimate differs from a "targetprice" in two ways. First, it’s an estimate of what thebusiness is worth, whereas a price target typically reflectswhat other investors may pay for the stock. Second, it’s along-term estimate, whereas price targets generally focuson the next two to 12 months. Uncertainty To generate the Morningstar Uncertainty Rating, analystsconsider factors such as sales predictability, operatingleverage, and financial leverage. Analysts then classifytheir ability to bound the fair value estimate for the stockinto one of several uncertainty levels: Low, Medium, High,

Very High, or Extreme. The greater the level of uncertainty,the greater the discount to fair value required before astock can earn 5 stars, and the greater the premium to fairvalue before a stock earns a 1-star rating. Margin of Safety This is the discount to fair value we would require beforerecommending a stock. We think it’s always prudent tobuy stocks for less than they’re worth.The margin of safetyis like an insurance policy that protects investors from badnews or overly optimistic fair value estimates. We requirelarger margins of safety for less predictable stocks, andsmaller margins of safety for more predictable stocks. Consider Buying/Consider Selling The consider buying price is the price at which a stockwould be rated 5 stars, and thus the point at which wewould consider the stock an extremely attractivepurchase. Conversely, consider selling is the price atwhich a stock would have a 1 star rating, at which pointwe’d consider the stock overvalued, with low expectedreturns relative to its risk. Stewardship Grades We evaluate the commitment to shareholdersdemonstrated by each firm’s board and management teamby assessing transparency, shareholder friendliness,incentives, and ownership. We aim to identify firms thatprovide investors with insufficient or potentiallymisleading financial information, seek to limit the powerof minority shareholders, allow management to abuse itsposition, or which have management incentives that arenot aligned with the interests of long-term shareholders.The grades are assigned on an absolute scale--not relativeto peers--and can be interpreted as follows: A means"Excellent," B means "Good," C means "Fair," D means"Poor," and F means "Very Poor."

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