Technical Assistance to the GCCA Climate Support Facilityunder the 10th EDF Intra-ACP Financial Framework

Work Order 17

Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Victoria Basin:

Ecosystem Health and Sustainable Development in Mt Elgon:

TECHNICAL BRIEFING ON ADAPTATION MEASURES AND PILOT AREAS

Field Missions from March, 2013 to August, 2013

Author name: Simon Thuo

Quality control : Manuel Harchies

Consortium SAFEGE-Prospect-ADETEF-Eco – Gulledelle 92, 1200 Brussels, BELGIUM

Straddling the border between Kenya and Uganda, Mt Elgon is the water tower for key rivers that feed Lake Victoria, Lake Kyoga and Lake Turkana; the water and other ecosystem services have provided livelihoods for millions of people. But over the last 30 years encroachment, deforestation and adverse climate on Mt Elgon has led to serious effects on the environment it services, acutely demonstrated by frequent landslides in Bududa, siltation and increased flooding around Lake Kyoga. Urgent measures to reverse environmental degradation; improved governance coupled with incentives for alternative livelihoods to stem the degradation are urgently needed to protect ecosystem services that stretch far beyond the mountain

MT ELGON: SECURING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

ENCROACHMENT; POPULATION AND CLIMATE THREATS

1MT ELGON: SECURING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

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ResilienceThe ability of a

social or ecological system to absorb

disturbances while retaining the same

basic structure and ways of

functioning, the capacity for self

organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.”

IPCC, 2008

ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATIONUse of biodiversity and ecosystem services in an overall adaptation strategy. It includes the sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.

(UN Convention on Biodiversity)

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ENCROACHMENT; POPULATION AND CLIMATE THREATS

MT ELGON: MORE THAN A MOUNTAINMt Elgon is the source of water and environmental services for one of the most densely populated regions in Eastern Africa. In Kenya, it is the key water catchment for key rivers: River Nzoia and Lwakhakha which flow to Lake Victoria; River and the Turkwel that drains into Lake Turkana,, the Sio Malaba Malakisi.

SIO-MALABA-MALAKISI SYSTEM FROM MT ELGON (NELSAP)

It has a rapidly increasing population of over 4 million people, 80% of whom are engaged in agriculture. The high and increasing population on both sides of the border is creating ever-increasing demand for agricultural lands that are already scarce. At the slopes of Mt. Elgon, agriculture is encroaching on forest resources which are also depended upon heavily for firewood, ropes, pole wood, vegetables, bamboo shoots, fruits, medicines, and for livestock feed (IUCN 2005). Formal establishment of national parks and forest reserves has caused resentment from local population, particularly on the Ugandan side where, during the period of civil strife, encroachment reached well into the moorland and is now close to the mountain peak.

Lake Kyoga and the Wetlands of Uganda

In 2008 an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Pilot Study for Uganda was carried out in the Lake Kyoga catchment area by NEMA, UNEP and UNDP to assess the linkages between changes in ecosystems, ecosystem services and human well-being. The Lake Kyoga catchment is an important focal area for Uganda because of its importance in the Nile Basin and the significant differences in human welfare indicators such as health, poverty, food security among others.

The findings show that in the last twenty years, Nakasongola district lost more than 50 per cent of its forest woodland cover, cut down to

cater for the burgeoning need for charcoal and wood fuel in the urban areas. River Manafwa suffers heavy siltation from the agricultural production that takes place along its banks and causeddownstream functions of the river system to decline. Fish catch has dwindled so much it is now left to children. In Nakasongola, where 60 per cent of the community is pastoralist, harsh weather and overstocking of livestock deteriorated key grasslands into bare earth between 1990 and 2004. The decline in ecosystems and ecosystem services to wetlands, and other freshwater ecosystems, agro-ecosystems and grasslands. While the communities in the dry lands areas have problems of inadequate rainfall, those in the Mount Elgon areas have to deal with excessive rains resulting in landslides that periodically lead to loss of crops, human life and poverty.

The major drivers of changes in ecosystems such as rapid population growth, the high demand for charcoal in urban areas, limited knowledge or extension service support and poverty are still prevalent and growing in some communities. The study shows that over the next fifty years the consequences of the deterioration in the Lake Kyoga catchment ecosystems will be extremely adverse. It posits that neither a market-driven approach, nor government action nor the segregation of wealthy class as seems prevalent in Uganda, will ensure sustainable development.

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Population density 100km buffer around lake Victoria: people per km2 (After UNEP)

Low <25

Med 25-100

High >100

On the Kenya side, although less encroached, logging and clearing of land for agriculture has left complete areas denuded of forest cover.

The degradation has devastating consequences for the local population as well as those downstream. Landslides in Bududa have left hundreds dead in the last few years. Environmental degradation has led to flash flooding in the Mpolomoko sub-rivers that serve Karamoja region, the most arid in the country, carrying away loose soils and filling up significant parts of the wetlands and raising the bed of the shallow and swampy Lake Kyoga system, in turn causing massive floods in the surrounding areas during the rainy season.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS CAUSING ADDITIONAL AND SIGNIFICANT DRIVERS AS WELL. Investigation from the ACCESS team reveals that temperatures on the mountain system have increased in the last 30 years, between 0.5 to 1 °C, changing vegetation cover, increasing incidence

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of malaria and other water-related diseases, and may change land use and cropping patterns as farmers seek more productive and resilient crops

For Mbale region, average monthly temperature increased by 0.80C between 1990 – 2000,

with seven out of 12 months of the year (February, March, May, June, July, August and

September) experiencing an increase of more than 0.5 °C. Monthly average rainfall

increased by 12.3% between 2001 and 2010 from an average decrease of -7.47% between

1991 and 2000

(Mbogga, 2012). The

Mt. Elgon region of

Uganda, where the

Districts of Mbale,

Manafwa and Bududa

are located is extremely

vulnerable to the

impacts of climate

change (Kitutu et al.,

2011). Impacts of the

climate variations have

included tragic

landslides that have

occurred in Bududa and

Manafwa Districts since

the El Nino rains of

1997/98 and most recently in March 2010 and June 2012 (NEMA, 2009; District Forestry

Officer Bududa 2012 pers. comm.). Communities have reported increased incidence of

malaria and the outbreaks of associated waterborne diseases within the human population,

and Trypanosomiasis (Nagana) (NEMA, 2011). Whereas the risk of climate change in

these areas is observable, it is the extreme vulnerability of many poor communities that has

got development actors to seek for solutions to build resilience in some cases and build

local capacity to withstand risks of living in the Mt. Elgon landscape1

1 Analysis of Adaptation and Mitigation Options for the Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) Project For the Mbale Region of Uganda, (August 2012); UNDP

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PURPOSE AND APPROACH OF THIS REPORTThough the impact of degradation, encroachment and climate change will have far-reaching effects well beyond Mt Elgon, this report will dwell not on the mountain or its shadow, but best practices and received wisdom from interventions in other parts of the world that have contended with reducing vulnerability to climate change; enhancing societal resilience; and other economic, governance or structural measures that sustain ecosystem services with particular focus on mountain landscapes.

ContextThe US Agency for International Development is funding a project aimed at improving resilience of Lake Victoria basin to climate change.

IUCN is the lead agency on the project based on innovative methodology structured around four key objectives:

1) Improving scientific knowledge of Climate Change information; 2) Demonstration of increased social and ecological resilience in hot spots of climate vulnerability

using adaptation strategies including ecosystem based adaptation (EBA); 3) Integrating evidence from adaptation approaches into policies across sectors and; 4) Enhancing learning on Climate Change adaptation strategies at local to regional levels

For improved scientific knowledge and preparedness for a changing climate in the Mount Elgon region, the African Collaborative Centre for Earth Systems Science (ACCESS) is gathering, collating and analyzing climate data and scenarios, and is facilitating the exchange of information across the partner agencies implementing the project as well as with key regional and international research centers.

This will be undertaken under two main activities:

1) Development of GIS based data and maps on climate change impacts on key livelihood resources and their vulnerability: Consolidate existing climate data, review and identify gaps for mapping climate change

impacts and vulnerability Hotspot identification and generation of risk vulnerability maps Fieldwork for groundtruthing the maps generated Facilitate training to produce model GIS data and maps on climate change impacts and

vulnerability.2) Analysis of scenarios for regional adaptation strategies to identify investment opportunities

Undertake a stakeholder review workshop to prioritize transboundary adaptation strategies Develop scenarios outlining costs and benefits of transboundary adaptation strategies.

To institutionalize research findings and outputs the project will collaborate with regional bodies including the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC).

The Intra-ACP GCCA program is providing ACCESS support in downscaling climate change models to be used as important tools/information sources for present and future interventions in the areas; as well as training in climate change adaptation in mountain areas and advice in the design of a M&E system for hotspots that will be selected for pilots.

During discussions with ACCESS and IUCN it was agreed that since the lead partner has been active in this region for decades on environmental sustainability issues, it would be more useful for

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GCCA consultant to focus on best practices and approaches on climate and Ecosystem Based Adaptation from other mountain areas of the world, in order maximize value for the stakeholders involved.

Framework for climate resilienceEffective climate adaptation requires iterative work program that addresses the five components as listed below.

This summary gives an overview of why each is critical, how it can be undertaken or demonstrated, identify best practices or case studies that shed more light on the issue, and provide links for further information

I. Stakeholder InvolvementDifferent actors in climate adaptation have different kinds of development agenda, their own views and visions on what has to be achieved, among which actors and in what way. It is therefore important to explore the different interests of the stakeholders involved.

The following matrix provides a useful guide for identifying the different kinds of stakeholders and how to keep them informed and engaged with the process

This matrix helps in diagnosis of stakeholders and other actors, their power, influence and interest.2

Which stakeholders will play a role or be affected by the programs? Have all primary, secondary and external stakeholders been listed?

Power interest matrix

Have all potential supporters and opponents of the project been identified?

Which actors can be seen are most critical to the process or most affected?

Has gender analysis been used to identify different types of female stakeholders at both primary and secondary level?

Have the interests of the poor and vulnerable groups especially been identified?

Who else could make an important contribution? Why and how?

What do the various actors contribute?

Why are there any new primary or secondary stakeholders that are likely to emerge as a result of the project?

2 Facilitating Innovation for Development Engel, P.G.H. and M.L. Salomon (1997);: and Guidance Note on How to do Stakeholder Analysis of Aid Projects and Programmes ODA (1995);

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II. Information to Support Decision Making,The search for evidence based policy making derives from the field of medicine, where rapid advance away from quackery was assured through rigorous, demonstrable and repeatable proof that indeed the solution was beyond doubt and scientifically proven.

Unfortunately, climate change is full of “uncertainty” – it is difficult to pinpoint if human induced greenhouse gases cause global warming; whether this will be good or bad for different parts of the world, or when to expect bad or changed weather.

For instance, in a recent attempt to downscale climate change for the Nile region, forty different possible outcomes were arrived at by some of the best equipped scientists in the world that lead climate science. This ranged from extremes of wetness to drought, from miniscule temperature rise to the changes that would spell doom for critical vegetation, fish and other sensitive species etc.

However, there is growing consensus that climate is changing, and for the worse, with longer, drier periods and shorter, more intense rain periods across Eastern Africa.

Accounting for knock on effects from climate change elsewhere

The undisputed fact is that sea level rise has already reached 40 cm, is threatening to inundate coastal cities and regions that have been the bedrock for agriculture, fisheries and transport system for many countries particularly in Africa, and will result in massive demands for food, all of which will impact on people far interior just like the financial meltdown spared no one.

Although national and local governments, NGOs and community organizations all have different roles, they should agree on what constitutes progress, and the indicators that will be regularly measured suitable for each actors role. Information overload, from too many indicators is likely to lead to failure to monitor progress. Indicators that are expensive or require sophisticated management are likely to be unsuitable for the range of key actors particularly community based change agents. Effective adaptation requires targeted information that is cost-effective to manage.

III. Effective Governance & Institutional Framework Climate adaptation requires an enabling environment—one that grants the poor the rights, resources and access they need to sustain and benefit from ecosystems, governments and markets. It begins with fair and equitable governance

Sound ecosystem management—whether at the watershed level, on a shared plot of forest land, or of a particular water body—can reduce the poor’s vulnerability to climate-related risks by creating economic opportunities that build livelihoods and increase resilience. Unfortunately, decades of development experience have shown that governance failures often rob the poor of effective control of the ecosystems on which they depend3.

Devolution and empowerment of power towards communities as emerged in many African countries as the solution to years of indifferent national institutions. Subsidiarity is good, but mere transfer of decision making to local and community organizations is not enough.

A critical role remains for national agencies from government, civil society and donors, who need to interpret scientific information, international agreements and protocols, legal and institutional frameworks and all other sophisticated information, for use by communities.

3 Enabling Adaptation: Priorities for Supporting the Rural Poor in a Changing Climate: Manish Bapna, Heather Mcgray, Gregory Mock & Lauren Withey (World Resources Institute)

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Even more essential is better coordination and collaboration among community based organizations, faith-led agencies; youth, women and the ubiquitous self-help groups common in most rural areas and informal settlements.

Clear, predictable and enforceable leadership by local authorities, with mandate derived from national laws, is critical for effective action for ecosystem based adaptation.

A similar framework is prerequisite for effective policy and integrated planning across competing line Ministries and national agencies to enhance use of national resources for resilience.

IV. Planning and policymakingFor some time now, leaders and technical officers in developing countries have expressed dissatisfaction with international agreements meant to reduce poverty, improve environmental stewardship and enhance their resilience to climate change. During consultations leading to the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (CoP15) in Copenhagen, several key workshops to elicit views of Africa practitioners to the demand for a new concordant on what was to be done to address the impacts as well as reduce global warming. Though skeptical at first, they finally negotiated the conclusion that climate change, particularly on the Africa continent, was just another additional constraint to existing development challenges; and concluded that climate adaptation was most feasibly undertaken through sustainable land and water resource management approaches.

As such, there is a familiar and relatively well understood starting point to avoid lack of action given the very complex issues in climate science; that have commonly used and even specialized decision support tools which can help public officials make difficult adaptation decisions.

In Subsaharan Africa, were communities and governments have faced extremes of climate variability, useful experiences and approaches that can be brought to bear on assessing climate risks and vulnerability and decide among policy options.

V. Resources: Financial, Human and TechnicalThe effective deployment of financial support will be critical if developing countries, many of which will bear the brunt of predicted climate impacts, are to prepare for extreme events, a more variable climate, and long-term change that may force changes to human habitation, infrastructure, and the make-up of their economies.

Nairobi StatementAdapt to climate change through an integrated land and water management

Climate change an added challenge to poverty, hunger, diseases and environmental degradation.

Building resilience- Focus on the adaptive capacity for livelihoods and ecosystem maintenance, no regrets investments

Governance – Strengthen institutions; build on participation of civil society, gender equality, subsidiarity and decentralisation.

Information has to be improved; a public good to be shared at all levels The Economics and Financing - cost of inaction vs benefits of adaptation

Establish partnerships that enable the combining of strengths, mandates and institutional capacities.

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In addition, human resources (such as trained engineers, data-processing technicians, and scientists) and ecological resources (which provide services such as food, freshwater, and erosion control) will also be critical if developing countries are to become more climate resilient.

Adapting to climate change impacts will require a huge expenditure of financial and human resources, and the effectiveness of interventions will often depend on ecological and social resources as well.

Recognizing this, industrialized countries have agreed to a provision through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to mobilize US$100 billion a year by 2020 to address both mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Climate financing, however, will not cover all adaptation needs, given the likely impacts across society.

Governments and communities will need both financial and human resources at their disposal in order to develop and implement flexible plans to cope with variability and to build the capacity to collect and analyze locally relevant seasonal data.

MATRIX FOR ADAPTIVE ACTIONS Adaptive actions need to be undertaken in different spheres and economic sectors for effectiveness. The three organizing frameworks for adaptive actions for this document have been defined as

1. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY- examples are Egypt’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requirement for project approval and regulating setback distance for coastal infrastructure given sea level rise. For instance, Rwanda seeks to address vulnerability of its agricultural sector to climate change by promoting non-agricultural income generating activities to reduce the vulnerability of rural populations to climate change (see below).

2. RESILIENCE (managing for enhanced ecosystem resilience); for instance sustainable agricultural land management, e.g. the incorporation of trees and shrubs in smallholder farming systems to maintain permanent soil cover, stabilize soil structure, build soil organic matter and enhance infiltration and moisture retention, diversify household incomes.

3. TARGETED ADAPTATION is intended to underwrite risk (e.g. pastoralism, agriculture, health) that is affected by a specific climate change impact (drought, flood, disease). The index based risk transfer mechanisms (e.g. index based livestock insurance in Kenya and Ethiopia’s first national index-based disaster insurance program) are good examples of targeted adaptation actions.

The cases given here below provide demonstration of these different but complementary dimensions of adaptation actions which though individually limited in terms of impact have capacity for scaling rapidly or providing firm foundation for adaptive action that can enhance community and national resilience.

As the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report1

makes clear, water is in the eye of the climate management storm. Global warming and related climate changes are predicted to present significant challenges over the next century. These challenges are increasingly better understood and there is growing consensus on their likely scale.To date, much attention has been focused on the dimensions of temperature and sea level rise. Substantial work has also been done on some of the consequences, such as changes in rainfall and the risk of more, and more intense, floods and droughts. However, not nearly enough work

11BEST PRACTICES FOR ADAPTATION IN MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMSThe Case of RwandaBy 2050, the global population is expected to rise from 7 to 9 billion- and will be eating more on per capita basis. 70% more food will be required, and in developing countries the food requirement will double.

For Rwanda, the 2012 General Population and Housing Census indicates that Rwandan population is composed of mostly women, making up 51.8% of 10.5 million inhabitants.

The outlook is even more critical. By 2050, the population is expected to reach 18.2 million, 82% higher than the present figure.

With average annual population growth rate of Rwanda (2.7%) the country's population density, already highest in Africa, has increased from 321 to 416 per km2 in the ten years to 2012.

Even if fertility were to decline to replacement of 2.1children per woman, Rwanda’s population will continue to grow and still double during the next 70 years. This is due to the youthfulness of the age structure and the population momentum, by which the very large number of people in the reproductive age groups fuels the continued growth.

Rwanda relies heavily on agriculture for its income, employment opportunities and the economic well-being of its people. 80% of the population lives in the rural areas. Farm size for more than 60% of the farmers is less than half a hectare.

Rwanda is currently highly vulnerable to climate change as it is strongly reliant on rain-fed agriculture both for rural livelihoods and exports of tea and coffee. It also depends on hydropower for half of its electricity generation, a driver of economic growth.

Rwanda has experienced a temperature increase of 1.4°C since 1970, higher than the global average, and can expect an increase in temperature of up to 2.5°C by the 2050s from 1970. Rainfall is highly variable but average annual rainfall may increase up to 20% by the 2050s (above 1970 levels). Projections for East Africa over Rwanda and Burundi show an increasing trend in rainfall intensity for both rainy seasons. This is likely to cause floods and storms resulting in landslides, crop losses including cash crops and damage to infrastructure.

Extreme weather already negatively impacts the economy and climate change could result in annual economic costs of around 1% of GDP by 2030 (Stockholm Environment Institute).

Poverty tends to trap households/communities in livelihoods options even when these are no

longer effective. Poverty limits access to new information, innovation or opportunities to develop

new skills. Poor people occupy the least productive or most disaster-prone lands, such as flood

plains, slums, eroding hillsides, and low lying and unprotected coastal areas. Under these already

difficult conditions, even modest changes of climate hazards will quickly push households and

communities beyond their abilities to cope.

Appropriate policy actions need to be taken in order to tackle the negative impacts of climate change through all socio-economic sectors.

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Agriculture in the Mille CollinesHowever, the landscape of Rwanda makes any improvement of agricultural productivity very difficult. 82% of farmland land is either on the hills- 24% is located near the top; 46% on hillsides; 12% near the bottom; only 16% on plains and 2% on marshlands.

Soil erosion is a massive problem already, and the attempts to stem siltation of key rivers by planting elephant grass, shrubs and trees in a 10m band has failed. The soil erosion not only leads to reduced fertility, but destroys pumps and reservoirs for water supply and hydropower; while silting up the marshes and their critical ecosystem functioning.

Additional problems from siltation includes reduced capacity to store water during wet season; rapid runoff leading to accelerated destruction of soil cover, and reduced buffering capacity to ameliorate impacts of both floods and droughts.

Comprehensive National Policy and Strategy FrameworkGREEN GROWTH AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE STRATEGYThe Green Growth and Climate Resilience strategy, an inclusive strategy for all sectors of the economy was approved by Cabinet in December, 2011. It has the following important features

1. A comprehensive economic approach that cuts across all sectors: Vision 2050: For Rwanda to be a developed climate-resilient, low-carbon economy by 2050

2. Articulates clear strategic objectives that different ministries and public agencies can respond to:Strategic Objectives To achieve Energy Security and a Low Carbon Energy Supply that supports the

development of Green Industry and Services To achieve Sustainable Land Use and Water Resource Management that results in Food

Security, appropriate Urban Development and preservation of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services To achieve Social Protection, Improved Health and Disaster Risk Reduction that reduces

vulnerability to climate change3. Articulates programs of action and targets across different economic sectors, but also addresses

underlying enabling framework to be undertaken and a roadmap for implementation

Funding climate resilienceENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE FUND FOR RWANDA (FONERWA)To ensure that the Climate Resilient strategy was implemented without unde stress on the line departments and lengthy bureaucratic process, Rwanda created by special Parliamentary Statute an embedded fund, FONERWA - approved by Parliament in 2012.

FONERWA is the intended vehicle through which environment and climate change finance is

channeled, programmed, disbursed and monitored in Rwanda. As a national basket fund,

FONERWA is both an instrument to facilitate direct access to international environment and

climate finance, as well as to streamline and rationalise external aid and domestic finance. The

operation and organisation of this mechanism is ultimately guided by Rwanda’s legal framework,

in the form of the FONERWA Law which has been approved by Parliament.4

4 Government of Rwanda, Environment and Climate Change Fund (FONERWA) Design Project, 2012

13IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK5

Adaptation is facilitated by reducing vulnerability and vulnerability in turn is mainly determined by poverty, economic inequality, isolation and income diversity among others (Brooks et al 2005). Creating resilient communities must go beyond actions to reduce climate impacts to address underlying causes of vulnerability, especially poverty.

5 Strategic Framework for Rwanda’s National Strategy on Climate Change and Low CarbonDevelopment

Social Capital Compounds Resource ScarcityManaging water scarcity entails taking measures to overcome it, either by supply-side increases or demand-side regulation. Often regarded as the -solution- to potential conflicts over the natural resource water, such regulation in fact contains the seeds of a new kind of conflicts, best described as second-order conflicts, incurred by the very attempt to overcome the source of the potential first-order conflict, water scarcity. Water scarcity, when dealt with by societies and states, thus very quickly surfaces as a scarcity of social adaptive capacity, which is what merits an attempt to delineate and delimit a concept of social resource scarcity- Leif Ohlsson,

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Human Development and Efficient Resource Utilisation: Assessment of lack of adaptive capacity in the Greater Horn and Nile Basin, in which lake Victoria and Mt Elgon lie, demonstrates the impact of social capital on level of water stress. A hydrological examination of the Nile Basin Countries, compared to UNDP’s Human Development Index gives the results in the table below6:-

Burundi thus ranks as the most socially water stressed country in the Nile Basin, with Egypt taking merely the fifth place, after Kenya,

Rwanda, and Ethiopia, although Egypt is more water-stressed than these countries according to standard hydrological indicators (WSI). Egypt’s low rank on the list of socially water-stressed countries is due to its comparatively higher social adaptive capacity, measured by the HDI.

Table 1: Comparing Water Stress Index (SWI) and Social Water Stress Index (SWSI) for the Nile Basin states

Country: Availablerenewable water

Availablewater per capita

WSI

Water Stress Index

HDI

Human Devel-opment Index

Social resourcescarcity(rank)

SWSI

Social Water Stress Index

WSI

(rank)

SWSI

(rank)

SWSI rank minus WSI

rank

Egypt 58.10 936 11 0.614 65 17 17 20 3

Sudan 154.00 5,766 2 0.333 19 5 82 57 -25

Ethiopia 110.00 1,950 5 0.244 7 21 34 16 -18

Kenya 30.20 1,112 9 0.463 43 19 18 18 0

Uganda 66.00 3,352 3 0.328 18 9 58 36 -22

Tanzania 89.00 2,964 3 0.357 28 9 50 33 -17

Rwanda 6.30 1,215 8 0.187 2 44 22 10 -12

Burundi 3.60 594 17 0.247 8 68 13 6 -7

  Standard hydrological indicators

HDI taken to indicate social adaptive capacity

Comparison between water stress and social water stress

6 Bo Appelgren and Leif Ohlsson: Water and Social Resource Scarcity,1998

15 MAU FOREST COMPLEX (KENYA)

The Mau Forest Complex is the most important of Kenya’s five water towers, the source of water for 30 million people in Kenya and Tanzania. It is the upper catchments of all but one of the main rivers on the west side of the Rift Valley, including Nzoia, Yala, Nyando, Sondu, Mara, Ewaso Ngiro (south), Naishi, Makalia, Nderit, Njoro, Molo and Kerio that feed into six major lakes-Victoria, Turkana, Baringo, Naivasha, Nakuru and Natron.

The Mau Forests Complex provides ecological services in river flow regulation, flood mitigation, water storage, recharge of groundwater, reduced soil erosion and siltation; water purification, promoting biodiversity and the source of water for Maasai Mara and Serengeti national parks in Kenya and Tanzania.

The environmental services provided by the Mau Forests Complex support key economic sectors, including: energy, tourism, agriculture (cash crops, subsistence crops, and livestock) as well as water supply to urban centers and industries.

Micro‐climate regulation, Nutrient cycling and soil formation.

The market value of goods and services generated annually in the tea, tourism and energy sectors alone to which the Mau Forests Complex has contributed, is in excess of Kshs 20 billion.

It has the potential to add 40% more hydropower of over 500 MW to Kenya’s electricity grid.

Illegal forest resource extraction for timber, charcoal and firewood; land encroachment leading to conversion of forestland into human settlements; mismanagement of industrial forest plantations that have devastated indigenous trees, fires and overgrazing have severally damaged over 160, 000 hectares.

The consequences have been catastrophic:

Water resources: the main aquifer in Nakuru (Kenya’s 4th

largest city) has been lowered by 100 meters in 10 years; Irregular flow on Sondu River making it impossible to run the hydropower plant at full capacity in the dry seasons; the four main rivers feeding the Lake Nakuru were are now seasonal; the Mara River level in the dry season is very low, threatening the river‐dependant wildlife in the Maasai Mara and the Serengeti ecosystems

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In Njoro area, 13 of the 32 streams have dried up completely mostly between 1996 and 2001. 27 other water sources or streams have also dried up completely in Elburgon, Kuresoi, Keringet, Kiptagich and Ol Pusimoru areas (from Government of Kenya sources)

Numerous forest species including bamboo have been lost, wetlands degraded and the very critical Lake Nakuru, Mara and Serengeti parks are threatened with extinction.

InterventionsIMPROVING INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PLANMau Forests Complex Authority (MFCA) has been established to coordinate and oversee the management of the complex. Economic sectors dependent Mau ecosystem services like water, energy, tourism and wildlife, agriculture and forestry and other stakeholder are represented.

Vision 2030 Ecological requirements, existing strategic plans are being integrated in the management plan. Information and data status are being updated. Critical catchment areas and biodiversity hotspots have been prioritised for assessment and appropriate conservation strategies.

ESTABLISH & ENFORCE CATCHMENT BOUNDARIES, SECURE LAND TENURE; Assessment and delineation of catchment areas and biodiversity hotspots; demarcation of

legal boundaries and fencing off where significant human-wildlife conflicts could occur,. Improved systematic and routine monitoring to prevent new encroachment, charcoal burning

and tree felling that could further attenuate degradation process. Hydrological and biological hotspots were hence imperative in this context.

RELOCATION, RESETTLEMENT, LIVELIHOOD SUPPORT AND DEVELOPMENTDespite the most intense political pressure even from some very senior government leaders, all people living in the demarcated forest areas were relocated.

The State provided alternative land for resettlement and funds for improving livelihoods and new land, while taking into consideration vulnerability of the people within the locations.

Water, food, shelter and energy were provided for relocated families as both a humanitarian measure and to avoid potential resentment, alienation and further politicisation.

PUBLIC AWARENESS AND COMMUNITY SENSITIZATION The restoration process was to be done in consultation with local communities, who were to

prioritised to benefit through employment and improved access to ecosystem services including water supply.

Exploration of sustainable livelihood options with particular emphasis on employment opportunities and payment for environmental services such as communities preparing tree seedlings for sale to the program, with the balance secured through institutional nurseries.

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Rwanda’s Gold Medal: best reforestation program in the world

21 September 2011 – Rwanda today won a United Nations-backed gold award for its forest promotion policies, an event that former United States track and field star Carl Lewis, himself a nine-time Olympic gold winner and now UN Goodwill Ambassador, called more important than the many medals he has garnered.

Policies from the United States and Gambia were runners-up, winning joint silvers in the Future Policy Award announced at UN Headquarters in New York by the World Future Council (WFC), a group of 50 respected personalities from all five continents representing governments, parliaments, the arts, civil society, science and business world.

The annual awards celebrate policies that create better living conditions for current and future generations, and seek to raise global awareness and speed up action towards just, sustainable and peaceful societies. This year’s topic was forests, with 16 entries from 20 countries, and the announcements took place under the sponsorship of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“Despite the genocide and continuing population and land pressures, Rwanda is one of only three countries in Central and Western Africa to achieve a major reversal in the trend of declining forest cover and is on course to achieving its goal of forest cover of 30 per cent of total land area by the year 2020,” WFC Director Alexandra Wandel said in announcing the gold medal for the country’s national forest policy, initiated in 2004.

“The Government of Rwanda has taken a lead in developing visionary forest policy but also bio-diversity conservation, ecotourism, green jobs.”

Forest cover has increased by 37 per cent since 1990, massive reforestation and planting that promote indigenous species and involve the local population have been undertaken, and new measures such as agro-forestry and education have been implemented.

“I kind of know about awards, I’ve had a few myself and I think it’s much more important that we talk about this award because it affects everyone,” said Mr. Lewis, a Goodwill Ambassador for FAO who in his sporting career won 10 Olympic medals, nine of them gold, and 10 World Championships medals, eight of them gold.

“It talks about reforestation and overcoming hunger. So I’m delighted to make the Future Policy Award more well-known and to carry out some of the inspiriting energy of the Olympic spirit that I’ve had in the past. So I hope that all of you can be inspired to do what you can in your communities and in your forests to make your worlds a better place.”7

7 http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?newsid=39661#.UYpAg5LfrIU

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Northern Peru: High Value Agroforestry for mountain zone8

Sisa river basin lies in the coffee and cocoa producing zones. The rural families that cultivate these crops actually come the country’s poorest and most highly populated regions use slash-and-burn agriculture. Farm sizes are between one and three hectares, with low productivity that resulted in poor quality of and with heavy post-harvest practices. Large parts of forest were cleared for large-scale corn and cotton production that quickly drain the rainforest soils of nutrients, leading to demand for new agricultural land. The result was high rates of logging, increasing the risk of flooding, mudslides, soil erosion and biodiversity losses. Both global climate change and these practices themselves are having significant impacts on the microclimate in the river basin. More intense rains and prolonged periods of drought are accelerating desertification processes, putting the livelihoods of coffee and cocoa farmers at risk.

In response to these challenges, Soluciones Prácticas initiated a two-year agroforestry project in 2006, working in partnership with 300 small-scale coffee and cocoa producers, local NGO Capirona and the Oro Verde Cooperative.

LESSONS LEARNT:Integrate environmental conservation into local economic development objectives. The project re-introduced the natural forest environment into local production systems and taught farmers how to benefit from planting multi-strata native tree varieties on their land. By demonstrating the direct links between biodiversity and soil conservation with a higher quality product, farmers were motivated to take up other complimentary practices such as applying organic fertilisers.

Consequently, the project not only led to improvements in local environmental conditions, but also supported farmers to increase their income levels. Agroforestry therefore represents a key strategy for addressing the main challenges of climate change in mountain areas while also providing economic incentives for farmers and policymakers.

Capitalise on local knowledge. Farmers provided vital information on local biodiversity including the range, uses – such as food or medicinal - and production methods of different native forest

8 Innovative Mountain Adaptation: A Case Study in Agroforestry’s Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits: Evidence & Lessons for Latin America

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species. This knowledge was used to design farm management plans that could be implemented at a low cost and with locally available materials.

Open-up access to international markets. The two crops promoted in the project – the African coffee bean and the American cocoa bean – were selected based on international market demand and suitability to local conditions, including both current and anticipated impacts of climate change. Furthermore, by integrating the agroforestry and cooperative production models, two niche markets – organic and fair trade – were also opened up for local producers who were certified as meeting required standards.

Promoting producer associations to increase competitiveness. Although coffee and cocoa production in northern Peru is dominated by small-scale farmers, international markets demand high quality and quantity of production that cannot be achieved if these farmers continue to work individually. To meet these challenges, the project promoted farmer membership in the Oro Verde Cooperative which improved technical capacity and commercial viability of small-scale production.