mtpdp 26feb2011 pdf-eg_dedit_pdf

PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2016

In pursuit of inclusive growth

Philippine Development ForumSofitel Philippine Plaza, Pasay City

26 February 2011

Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr.Socioeconomic Planning Secretary

National Economic and Development Authority

2February 26, 2011National Economic and Development Authority

Outline of presentation

Philippine economic performance

Constraints to inclusive growth

Key programs and strategies in the Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016

3

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2009

Real Per Capita GDP growth (%), 1951-2009Selected Asian Economies

Hongkong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei Thailand

Low, lagging and uneven growth

Sources: Asian Development Bank (2010); National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

4

High poverty and inequality

Country % of Poor Population 1/ Gini Coefficient2/

China 15.9 (2005) 0.415 (2005)

Indonesia 29.4 (2007) 0.376 (2007)

Malaysia 2.0 (2004) 0.379 (2004)

Philippines 22.6 (2006) 0.440 (2006)Thailand 2.0 (2004) 0.425 (2004)

Vietnam 21.5 (2006) 0.378 (2006)

Sources/Notes 1/UNESCAP 2009 Statistical Yearbook;; based on Below US$1.25 per Day (www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2009/) 2/ 2010 ADB Key Indicators

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnltransfer.asp?fID=16

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnltransfer.asp?fID=16


Why is inclusive growth

elusive?


Inadequate investmentWhy is inclusive growth elusive?

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 H1Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP)

Foreign Direct Investment/GDP (in Percent)

Source: WB – World Development Indicators; ADB Key Indicators;

Note: Philippine’s 2010 H1 – from Q1-Q3Sources: ADB-Asian Development Outlook; International Finance Statistics; NSCB

Factors leading to

low investment

o Inadequate infrastructure support

o Gaps and lapses in governance


Output growth does not lead to employment creation

Labor market fragmentation

Limited information about job and skill availability

Concentration of economic activities to large-scale, capital intensive and highly organized sector

Why is inclusive growth elusive?

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

China Indonesia South Korea Malaysia

Philippines Singapore Thailand

Comparative Unemployment Rates of Selected Asian Economies

Sources: Asian Development Outlook 2009 (March 2009); Labor Force Surveys, National Statistics Office

(*Starting April 2005, the LFS adopts the new unemployment definition)


Inadequate level of human development

Declining quality of education

Inadequate services for health security

Inadequate protection from shocks on human capital



Low gains from trade

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Hongkong Indonesia Malaysia Philippines

Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Source: WB – World Development Indicators; ADB Key Indicators

Exports/GDP (in percent)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

remittance/gdp tradable-nontradable ratio

Remittance to GDP vs. Tradable/Nontradable



Social Contract with the Filipino People

“A country with an organized and widely shared rapid expansion of our economy through a government dedicated to honing and mobilizing our people’s skills and energies as well as the responsible harnessing of our natural resources.”


PDP 2011-2016

INCREASE EMPLOYMENT

REDUCE POVERTY

HIGH AND SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH

EQUAL ACCESS TO

DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES

EFFECTIVE AND

RESPONSIVE

SOCIAL SAFETY NETS

OUTCOMES

BROAD STRATEGIES

INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Three broad strategiesto achieve inclusive growth...


High and sustained economic growth

Attain a high and sustained economic growth that provides productive employment opportunities

Broad strategies to achieve inclusive growth


Equal access to development opportunities

• Better education, primary healthcare and nutrition, and other basic social services

• Equal access to infrastructure, credit, land, technology, and other productive inputs

• Improve governance and strengthen institutions to promote competition



Effective and responsive social safety nets Protect and enable those who do not have the capability

to participate in the economic growth process



Philippine Development Plan &

Medium-Term Philippine Investment Program

Social Contract’s 16-Point Agenda


Key programs and strategies in the Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016


Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016

1. Introduction

2. Macroeconomic Policy

3. Competitive Industry and Services Sectors

4. Competitive and Sustainable Agriculture and Fisheries Sector

5. Accelerating Infrastructure Development


Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016

6. Towards a Dynamic and Resilient Financial System

7. Good Governance and the Rule of Law

8. Social Development

9. Peace and Security

10.Conservation, Protection and Rehabilitation of the Environment and Natural Resources Towards Sustainable Development


Boosting industry competitiveness to generate more employment

Vital infrastructure and expand logistics chains (Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Development)

Mutually agreed-upon work arrangements (Chapter 2 – Industry and Services)

Key programs and strategies


Boosting industry competitiveness to generate more employment

Focus on comparative advantage in more labor-intensive activities (Chapter 2 – Industry and Services)

Active trade policy that allows exporters to obtain comparative advantage factors including technological know-how (Chapter 2 – Industry and Services)



Improve access to financing

Clear credit policy framework and corresponding credit delivery strategy (Chapter 6 – Financial sector)

Public financing programs for MSMEs, cooperatives, etc. (Chapters 3 & 4 – Competitive and Sustainable Agri-Industry-Services sectors)



Improve access to financing

Credit-access for poor – integrated in a business service package (market matching technical assistance and community organizing) (Chapter 6 – Financial sector)

Regional savings generation through microinsurance, credit surety program, agent banking, use of non-bank financial institutions (Chapter 6 – Financial sector)



Massive investment in physical infrastructure

Integrated and multimodal national transport and logistics system (Chapter 5 – Infrastructure development)



Massive investment in physical infrastructure

Public infrastructure financed through better fiscal and efficient budgeting and expenditure management (Chapters 2- Macro policy and Chapter 6 -Governance) Public Private Partnership (Chapter 5 –Infrastructure Development)



Transparent and responsive governance Transparency and accountability in public transactions – use of

Government Integrated Financial Management Information System, procurement reforms (Chapter 7 – Governance)

Anti-corruption - Whistleblower Protection Law, Amendment of the COA charter, CHRP charter (Chapter 7 – Governance)



Transparent and responsive governance

Citizen’s access to information and participation in governance (Freedom of Information Bill, NACPA, transparent process in the selection of appointees) (Chapter 7 – Governance)

Enhance role of LGUs (Chapter 7 – Governance)



Develop human resource through improved social services Adequate and responsive formal education structure and

program (kindergarten+12-year basic education program)

Convergence of 4Ps, KALAHI-CIDSS and SEA-K

National Health Insurance Coverage Program

Communication, education and advocacy campaign for population development and RP/FP Programs



Complementary Strategies

Stable macroeconomic environment – low inflation and sustainable fiscal position (Chapter 2)

Measures to mitigate potential negative impact of environmental factors (Chapter 10)


End of armed conflict

Facilitate peace process and improve national security especially in afflicted areas (Chapter9)


Sentro ang tao sa ating plano

mtpdp 26feb2011 pdf-eg_dedit_pdf

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