mubaya: climate variability and change or multiple stressors? farmer perceptions regarding threats...
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Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer
perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and
Zambia
Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Outline
• Study background
• Objectives
• Methodology
• Findings
• Conclusions 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Study background
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3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Context
• General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa
• A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa
• Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia
• Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Objectives
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AimEstablish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify
existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future
climatic change
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• Perceptions related to decision making • Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in
perception, cognition or the lack of available information
• Attribution
• Understand perceptions on non-climate risks
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Objectives of the study• Farmer perceptions
regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods
• Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks
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Methodology
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3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Approach to the study
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3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Findings
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Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district
92
8
87
13
77
23
88
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% farmers
Monze Sinazongwe Lupane Lower Gweru
Yes No3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Zimbabwe Zambia
Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s
Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010)
Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells
Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000)
Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9
Shorter rain seasons
Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than beforeShift in highest temperature periods
Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district
73
45
11
23
54 54
3629 32 35
27
47
27
55
89
77
46 46
6471 68 65
73
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mo
nze
Sin
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gw
e
Lu
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ne
Lo
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Gw
eru
Mo
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Lo
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Gw
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Mo
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Sin
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Lo
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2006/07 season 2005/06 season 2004/05 season
% o
f fa
rmers
good bad3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Perceptions regarding causes
Causes of CC & V Monze %
Sinazongwe %
Lupane %
Lower Gweru %
Natural causes 34 35 24 31
Deforestation 33 17 5 14
Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs
3 7 45 27
Does not know 30 41 26 283/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Stressors • Financial • Market constraints• Livestock/crop diseases• Agricultural inputs• Weakened government capacity• Inadequate draught power/farming implements• Climate related• HIV and AIDS• Low soil fertility
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Zambia
Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income
Insecure livelihoods
Total Rank
Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1
Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2
Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3
Few dams 10 15 8 33 4
Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5
Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6
Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7
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Zimbabwe Stressor Loss of
crop yield
Loss of income
Insecure livelihood
Total Rank
Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought)
18 16 16 50 1
Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2
Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3
Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads
10 18 12 40 4
HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5
Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%M
onze
Sin
azon
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Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
Mon
ze
Sin
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Lupa
ne
Low
er G
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u
Mon
ze
Sin
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Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
Mon
ze
Sin
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Lupa
ne
Low
er G
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u
crop yields livestock populations agric income food availability
% o
f fa
rmer
s
increased same declined3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Conclusions
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• Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports
• Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability
• Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes
• Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors
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THANK YOU
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium