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Multi-Objective Optimization in Power Electronics
Johann W. Kolar Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich
Power Electronic Systems Laboratory www.pes.ee.ethz.ch
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Outline
► Global Megatrends ► Resulting Requirements for Power Electronics ► Multi-Objective Optimization Approach ► Optimization Application Example ► Summary
D. Bortis R. Bosshard
R. Burkart Acknowledgement F. Krismer
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Global Megatrends
Climate Change Digitalization Sustainable Mobility Urbanization Etc.
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Global Megatrends
Digitalization Sustainable Mobility Urbanization Etc.
Climate Change
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Average Increase 0.4%/a
► Climate Change
■ CO2 Concentration & Temperature Development ■ Evidence from Ice Cores
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► Reduce CO2 Emissions Intensity (CO2/GDP) to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Concentration ► 1/3 in 2050 → less than 1/10 in 2100 (AIST, Japan @ IEA Workshop 2007)
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Source: H. Nilsson Chairman IEA DSM Program FourFact AB
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► Climate Change
► Reduce CO2 Emissions Intensity (CO2/GDP) to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Concentration ► 1/3 in 2050 → less than 1/10 in 2100 (AIST, Japan @ IEA Workshop 2007)
■ CO2 Concentration & Temperature Development ■ Evidence from Ice Cores
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Medium-Voltage Power Collection and Connection
to On-Shore Grid
Utilize Renewable Energy (1)
─ Higher Reliability (!) ─ Lower Costs
► Off-Shore Wind Farms ► Medium Voltage Systems
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
Source: M. Prahm / Flickr
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Source: 2006
Utilize Renewable Energy (2)
─ Extreme Cost Pressure (!) ─ Higher Efficiency ─ Higher Power Density
► Photovoltaics Power Plants ► Up to Several MW Power Level ► Future Hybrid PV/Therm. Collectors
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
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─ Electrolysis for Conversion of Excess Wind/Solar Electric Energy into Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Powered Cars Heating
Hydrogenics 100 kW H2-Generator (η=57%), High Power @ Low Voltage
Source: www.r-e-a.net
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
Utilize Renewable Energy (3)
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Global Megatrends
Climate Change Sustainable Mobility Urbanization Etc.
Digitalization
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► Digitalization
■ Internet of Things (IoT) / Cognitive Computing
► Moore's Law ► Metcalfe's Law
─ Ubiquitous Computing / BIG DATA ─ Fully Automated Manufacturing / Industry 4.0 ─ Autonomous Cars ─ Etc.
– Moving form Hub-Based to Community Concept Increases
Potential Network Value Exponentially (~n(n-1) or
~n log(n) )
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Source: Intel Corp.
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Server-Farms up to 450 MW
99.9999%/<30s/a $1.0 Mio./Shutdown
Since 2006
Running Costs > Initial Costs
─ Ranging from Medium Voltage to Power-Supplies-on-Chip ─ Short Power Supply Innovation Cycles ─ Modularity / Scalability ─ Higher Power Density (!) ─ Higher Efficiency (!) ─ Lower Costs
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
Source: REUTERS/Sigtryggur Ari
Green / Zero Datacenters (1)
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► Power Density Increased by Factor 2 over 10 Years
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─ Ranging from Medium Voltage to Power-Supplies-on-Chip ─ Short Power Supply Innovation Cycles ─ Modularity / Scalability ─ Higher Power Density (!) ─ Higher Efficiency (!) ─ Lower Costs
■ Enabled by Power Electronics
Green / Zero Datacenters (2)
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Fully Automated Manufacturing – Industry 4.0
Source:
─ Lower Costs (!) ─ Higher Power Density ─ Self-Sensing etc.
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
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► ABB´s Future Subsea Power Grid “Develop All Elements for a Subsea Factory”
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
Fully Automated Raw Material Extraction
─ High Reliability (!) ─ High Power Density (!) Source: matrixengineered.com
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Global Megatrends
Climate Change Digitalization Urbanization Etc.
Sustainable Mobility
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► Sustainable Mobility
www.theicct.org
■ EU Mandatory 2020 CO2 Emission Targets for New Cars
─ 147g CO2/km for Light-Commercial Vehicles ─ 95g CO2/km for Passenger Cars ─ 100% Compliance in 2021
► Hybrid Vehicles ► Electric Vehicles
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FF-ZERO1 750kW / 322km/h 1 Motor per Wheel
Lithium-Ion Batteries along the Floor
Electric Vehicles (1)
─ Higher Power Density ─ Extreme Cost Pressure (!)
■ Enabled by Power Electronics - Drivetrain / Aux. / Charger
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Electric Vehicles (2)
─ Higher Power Density ─ Extreme Cost Pressure (!)
► Typ. 10% / a Cost Reduction ► Economy of Scale !
Source: PCIM 2013
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics - Drivetrain / Aux. / Charger
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─ Hyperloop ─ San Francisco Los Angeles in 35min
► Low Pressure Tube ► Magnetic Levitation ► Linear Ind. Motor ► Air Compressor in Nose
www.spacex.com/hyperloop
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Futuristic Mobility Concepts (1)
■ Enabled by Power Electronics
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► Eff. Optim. Gas Turbine ► 1000Wh/kg Batteries ► Distrib. Fans (E-Thrust)
► Supercond. Motors ► Med. Volt. Power Distrib.
Source:
Futuristic Mobility Concepts (2)
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
─ Cut Emissions Until 2050
* CO2 by 75%, * NOx by 90%, * Noise Level by 65%
Future Hybrid Distributed Propulsion Aircraft
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Source:
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► Electric Power Distribution ► High Flex. in Generator/Fan Placement ► Generators: 2 x 40.2MW / Fans: 14 x 5.74 MW (1.3m Diameter)
NASA N3-X Vehicle Concept using
Turboel. Distrib. Propulsion
Futuristic Mobility Concepts (3)
■ Enabled by Power Electronics
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Global Megatrends
Climate Change Digitalization Sustainable Mobility Etc.
Urbanization
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► Urbanization ■ 60% of World Population Exp. to Live in Urban Cities by 2025 ■ 30 MEGA Cities Globally by 2023
─ Smart Buildings ─ Smart Mobility ─ Smart Energy / Grid ─ Smart ICT, etc.
► Selected Current & Future MEGA Cities 2015 2030
Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
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Source:
Smart Cities / Grid (1)
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■ Enabled by Power Electronics
www.masdar.ae
─ Masdar = “Source” ─ Fully Sustainable Energy Generation * Zero CO2 * Zero Waste ─ EV Transport / IPT Charging ─ to be finished 2025
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Source:
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www.masdar.ae
Smart Cities / Grid (2)
■ Enabled by Power Electronics
─ Masdar = “Source” ─ Fully Sustainable Energy Generation * Zero CO2 * Zero Waste ─ EV Transport / IPT Charging ─ to be finished 2025
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… in Summary Source: whiskeybehavior.info
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► Cost Pressure as Common Denominator of All Applications (!) ► Key Importance of Technology Partnerships of Academia & Industry
■ Commoditization / Standardization for High Volume Applications ■ Extension to Microelectronics-Technology (Power Supply on Chip) ■ Extensions to MV/MF
► Current / New Application Areas (2)
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► Future “Big-Bang” Disruptions ■ “Catastrophic” Success of Disruptive New (Digital) Technologies ■ No Bell-Curve Technology Adoption / Technology S-Curve ■ “Shark Fin“-Model
► Consequence: Market Immediately & Be Ready to Scale Up ─ and Exit ─ Swiftly (!)
Source: www.verschuerent.wordpress.com February 2015
See also: Big Bang Disruption – Strategy in the Age of
Devastating Innovation, L. Downes and P. Nunes
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► Required Power Electronics Performance Improvements
─ Power Density [kW/dm3] ─ Power per Unit Weight [kW/kg] ─ Relative Costs [kW/$] ─ Relative Losses [%] ─ Failure Rate [h-1]
■ Performance Indices
[kgFe /kW] [kgCu /kW] [kgAl /kW] [cm2
Si /kW]
►
►
Environmental Impact…
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► Multi-Objective Design Challenge
Large Number of Degrees of Freedom / Multi-Dimensional Design Space Full Utilization of Design Space only Guaranteed by Multi-Objective Optimization
■ Counteracting Effects of Key Design Parameters ■ Mutual Coupling of Performance Indices Trade-Offs
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Multi-Objective Optimization
Abstraction of Converter Design Design Space / Performance Space Pareto Front Sensitivities / Trade-Offs
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Mapping of “Design Space” into System “Performance Space”
Performance Space
Design Space
► Abstraction of Power Converter Design
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► Mathematical Modeling of the Converter Design
Multi-Objective Optimization – Guarantees Best Utilization of All Degrees of Freedom (!)
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► Multi-Objective Optimization (1)
■ Ensures Optimal Mapping of the “Design Space” into the “Performance Space” ■ Identifies Absolute Performance Limits Pareto Front / Surface
Clarifies Sensitivity to Improvements of Technologies Trade-off Analysis
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► Determination of the η-ρ- Pareto Front (a)
─ Core Geometry / Material ─ Single / Multiple Airgaps ─ Solid / Litz Wire, Foils ─ Winding Topology ─ Natural / Forced Conv. Cooling ─ Hard-/Soft-Switching ─ Si / SiC ─ etc. ─ etc. ─ etc.
─ Circuit Topology ─ Modulation Scheme ─ Switching Frequ. ─ etc. ─ etc.
■ System-Level Degrees of Freedom
■ Comp.-Level Degrees of Freedom of the Design
■ Only η -ρ -Pareto Front Allows Comprehensive Comparison of Converter Concepts (!)
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■ Example: Consider Only fP as Design Parameter
fP =100kHz
“Pareto Front”
► Determination of the η-ρ- Pareto Front (b)
■ Only the Consideration of All Possible Designs / Degrees of Freedom Clarifies the Absolute η-ρ-Performance Limit
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► Converter Performance Evaluation Based on η-ρ-σ-Pareto Surface
■ Definition of a Power Electronics “Technology Node” (η*,ρ*,σ*,fP*) ■ Maximum σ [kW/$], Related Efficiency & Power Density
►
Specifying Only a Single Performance Index is of No Value (!) Achievable Perform. Depends on Conv. Type / Specs (e.g. Volt. Range) / Side Cond. (e.g. Cooling)
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► Converter Performance Evaluation Based on η-ρ-σ-Pareto Surface
■ Definition of a Power Electronics “Technology Node” (η*,ρ*,σ*,fP*) ■ Maximum σ [kW/$], Related Efficiency & Power Density
Specifying Only a Single Performance Index is of No Value (!) Achievable Perform. Depends on Conv. Type / Specs (e.g. Volt. Range) / Side Cond. (e.g. Cooling)
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►
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► Remark: Comparison to “Moores Law”
Definition of “η*,ρ*,σ*,fP*–Node” Must Consider Conv. Type / Operating Range etc. (!)
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■ “Moores Law” Defines Consecutive Techn. Nodes Based on Min. Costs per Integr. Circuit (!) ■ Complexity for Min. Comp. Costs Increases approx. by Factor of 2 / Year
Gordon Moore: The Future of Integrated Electronics, 1965 (Consideration of Three Consecutive Technology Nodes)
Lower Yield
Economy of Scale
>2015: Smaller Transistors but Not any more Cheaper ►
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Multi-Objective
Optimization Application Example
Comparative Converter Evaluation
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► Wide Input Voltage Range Isolated DC/DC Converter
─ Bidirectional Power Flow ─ Galvanic Isolation ─ Wide Voltage Range ─ High Partial Load Efficiency
■ Universal Isolated DC/DC Converter
►
Structure of “Smart Home“ DC Microgrid ►
Universal DC/DC Converter
─ Reduced System Complexity ─ Lower Overall Development Costs ─ Economy of Scale
■ Advantages
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!
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► Comparative Evaluation of Converter Topologies
■ Conv. 3-Level Dual Active Bridge (3L-DAB)
■ Advanced 5-Level Dual Active Bridge (5L-DAB)
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► Optimization Results - Pareto Surfaces
■ 3-Level Dual Active Bridge ■ 5-Level Dual Active Bridge
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Conclusions
Future Power Electronics Development “Stairway to Heaven”
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► Future Development
More Application Specific Solutions Mature Technology – Cost Optimization @ Given Performance Level Design / Optimize / Verify (All in Simulation) - Faster / Cheaper / Better
■ Megatrends – Renewable Energy / Energy Saving / E-Mobility / “SMART XXX” ■ Power Electronics will Massively Spread in Applications
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Power MOSFETs & IGBTs Microelectronics
Circuit Topologies Modulation Concepts
Control Concepts
Super-Junct. Techn. / WBG Digital Power
Modeling & Simulation
2025 2015
► ►
► ►
SCRs / Diodes Solid-State Devices
► Extrapolation of Technology S-Curve
“Passives” Adv. Packaging
η-ρ-σ-Design of Converters & “Systems” Interdisciplinarity
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■ “Stairway to Heaven”
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■ Thank You!