multipurpose & heavylift shipping market outlook · 2019-06-10 · multipurpose & heavylift...

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Multipurpose & Heavylift Shipping Market Outlook

Susan Oatway - Senior Analyst for Multipurpose & Breakbulk Shipping

Breakbulk Europe 2019Bremen 23rd May 2019

www.drewry.co.uk2 Drewry Maritime Research | #bbeu2019

Agenda

• Vessel Supply‒ Vessel classification‒ Fleet composition‒ Newbuildings – orders and deliveries‒ Demolitions‒ Fleet development

• Cargo Demand‒ Dry cargo demand‒ MPV market share‒ Pressures on demand

• Market Outlook‒ Challenges and conclusions

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Vessel Supply


Vessel Supply

Drewry classification of the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet

• Multipurpose (no gear): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity but no cranes.

• Multipurpose (geared): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity and cranes with a maximum combinable lift of less than 100t SWL.

• Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built after 1989.

• Heavylift vessel: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built before1989.

• Premium Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 250t SWL built after 1989.


Vessel SupplyFleet by sector by dwt segment, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)


Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (no gear) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019



Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (geared) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019



Vessel SupplyProject carrier & Heavylift vessel fleet age profile, 1 May 2019



Vessel SupplyPremium project carrier fleet age profile, 1 May 2019



Vessel SupplyMaximum lift by vessel sector


Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 50t in the 20-35,000 dwt sector

Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 193t in the 15-20,000 dwt sector


Vessel Supply

Orderbook schedule as at 1 May 2019



Vessel Supply

Fleet slippage data, 2012 - 2018



Vessel Supply

Demolition by segment



Vessel SupplyFleet development


Multipurpose (no gear & geared) deliveries

Project carrier and Heavylift deliveries

Multipurpose (no gear & geared) demolitions

Project carrier and Heavylift demolitions

Multipurpose (no gear & geared) fleet (right axis)

Project carrier and Heavylift fleet (right axis)

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Cargo demand


Cargo demand

Development of dry cargo demand



Cargo demand

Development of MPV market share



Cargo demand

Competition for market share



Pressures on demand – Flagging global trade


Cargo demand


Global Trade

Geopolitical Risk

Economic Growth

Tariff barrier and trade war

Regulatory Uncertainty

Product Miniaturisation

3D/4D Printing

Digital Disrupters

Nearshoring / regionalisation

Pressures on demand - Drivers of trade deceleration

Cargo demand



Cargo demandPressures on demand – Crude oil price


Cargo demandEffective demand for the multipurpose sector


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Outlook

ConsolidationConsolidation events against average TC rate



Market outlook Multipurpose freight market Index, based on timecharter rates received from brokers



Conclusions

• Outlook• Low demolition candidates over 2018, led to slight

improvement in fleet numbers but expectation is for contraction over longer term. Project carrier fleet expecting strong growth against decline of the simple multipurpose vessel.

• Global GDP and investor confidence are positive drivers for this sector. However the uncertainty surrounding these will dampen any market improvements.

• Challenges and Opportunities• The ongoing US / China trade war has the potential

to severely damage competing markets, prompting increased competition for these cargoes.

• Of growing importance to shippers is the financial health of the carriers – a robust due diligence procedure is necessary in today’s climate


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UK

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multipurpose & heavylift shipping market outlook · 2019-06-10 · multipurpose & heavylift...

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