murfreesboro (city of ) tn · 2020. 5. 22. · murfreesboro (city of ) tn update to credit analysis...

U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

CREDIT OPINION19 May 2020

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Murfreesboro (City of) TNUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryThe City of Murfreesboro, TN (Aa1 GOULT) benefits from a large and growing tax baselocated within the Nashville MSA as well as a solid financial position, marked by strongreserve and liquidity levels. While the city's debt burden is above-average, due to theexpanding nature of the tax base, debt levels will remain manageable over the medium term.

We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given thesubstantial implications for public health and safety. We do not see any material immediatecredit risks for Murfreesboro. However, the situation surrounding coronavirus is rapidlyevolving and the longer term impact will depend on both the severity and duration of thecrisis. If our view of the credit quality of Murfreesboro changes, we will update our opinion atthat time.

Credit strengths

» Rapid tax base expansion from 2015-2019 due to its favorable location within theNashville MSA

» Institutional presence of Middle Tennessee State University

» Solid financial position as a result of strong management and prudent fiscal policies

Credit challenges

» Elevated debt profile with the expectation of further issuance

» Exposure to variable rate debt, which has been reduced in recent years

Rating outlookMoody's typically does not assign an outlook to local government credits with this amount ofdebt outstanding.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Decreased debt position which is more in line with rating category medians

» Sizeable increases in tax base and strengthening of socioeconomic profile

» Maintenance of healthy reserve and liquidity levels

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Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» Increases in overall debt position beyond current expectations

» Deterioration of reserve or liquidity positions which reduces overall financial flexibility

» Material declines in assessed values which pressures property tax revenues

Key indicators

Exhibit 1

Murfreesboro (City of) TN 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Economy/Tax Base

Total Full Value ($000) $10,531,859 $10,764,328 $11,615,113 $11,270,711 $14,556,708

Population 117,983 126,118 126,188 122,904 141,344

Full Value Per Capita $89,266 $85,351 $92,046 $91,703 $102,988

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 103.2% 103.3% 104.5% 104.5% 103.4%

Finances

Operating Revenue ($000) $181,770 $194,036 $203,872 $218,331 $240,469

Fund Balance ($000) $64,124 $70,351 $66,368 $66,561 $69,324

Cash Balance ($000) $62,408 $70,662 $65,847 $67,901 $73,160

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 35.3% 36.3% 32.6% 30.5% 28.8%

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 34.3% 36.4% 32.3% 31.1% 30.4%

Debt/Pensions

Net Direct Debt ($000) $204,837 $260,281 $233,289 $276,286 $302,819

3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL ($000) $139,436 $157,993 $190,627 $212,806 $231,595

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.1%

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 1.1x 1.3x 1.1x 1.3x 1.3x

Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Full Value (%) 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6%

Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Revenues (x) 0.8x 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x

Sources: Moody's Investors Service, US Census Bureau, City Annual Financial Statements

ProfileThe City of Murfreesboro serves as the county seat to Rutherford County, located within the Nashville MSA, and provides services to agrowing population of approximately 130,968 (2018 American Community Survey).

Detailed credit considerations

Economy and Tax Base: Large tax base in Nashville metro areaThe city's $15.5 billion tax base will continue to experience growth, although it will be somewhat muted given the coronavirus, asa result of its favorable location within the Nashville metro region. Located approximately 30 miles southeast of the MetropolitanGovernment of Nashville and Davidson County (Aa2 stable), Murfreesboro serves as the county seat for Rutherford County andbenefits from its location along I-24 and I-840 which connects to I-40 and I-65, providing residents with easy access to variousemployment opportunities within the region.

The city also benefits from the institutional presence of Middle Tennessee State University, which is the city's third largest employer(2,205 employees) and has a sizeable student population of 21,656. The university is offering online summer classes to students due tothe coronavirus but currently plans to proceed with in-person classes in the fall of 2020. Wealth levels within the city are slightly belowaverage, partly reflecting the substantial student population. Per capita income is $29,851 (91.5% of the nation) and median familyincome is $76,502 (103.4% of the nation). Full value per capita is a solid $109,592.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 19 May 2020 Murfreesboro (City of) TN: Update to credit analysis


Growth within the tax base has been strong in recent years. Assessed value has increased at an average annual rate of 9.5% from 2016to 2020 (inclusive of a fiscal 2018 revaluation). Continued tax base expansion is expected in the future however the amount of growthand rate of growth will be tempered at least in the short term, due to the affects of the coronavirus. The speed at which the localeconomy recovers and desire for further near term development should become more evident in the coming months.

The coronavirus is driving an unprecedented economic slowdown. We currently forecast US GDP to decline significantly during2020 with a gradual recovery commencing toward the end of the year. Local governments with the highest exposure to the tourism,healthcare, retail, oil and gas and international trade sectors could suffer particularly severe impacts.

Financial Operations and Reserves: Financial position healthy through fiscal 2019The city's financial position will remain stable over the near term, despite an overall economic slowdown related to the coronavirus,due to strong reserve and liquidity levels through the first half of fiscal 2020. The city has maintained healthy reserve and liquiditylevels as a result of prudent fiscal management, conservative budgeting practices and growing property tax and sales tax revenues.The city's formalized General Fund balance policy requires that unassigned reserves be maintained at levels between 15% and 30% ofannual revenues, which the city has exceeded in each of the last five years.

The city's General Fund finished fiscal 2019 with an overall increase in reserves of approximately $3.2 million. The increase was theresult of healthy revenue collections, conservative budgeting of expenditures ($8.8 million less than budget) and the one time sale ofcapital assets. Total General Fund balance ended at $66.7 million (39.8% of annual revenues) and unassigned General Fund balancefinished at $61.1 million (36.5% of annual revenues). Available Operating Fund balance (includes the General Fund, Debt Service Fundand General Purpose School Fund) was also a solid $69.3 million or 28.8% of annual revenues. Local option sales taxes are the city'slargest revenue source, making up 31% of fiscal 2019 General Fund revenues. Property taxes are the city's second largest source andmade up 26% of annual revenues.

The fiscal 2020 budget included no appropriated fund balance, $58.9 million in property taxes, $49.1 million in local option salestaxes, $10.9 million in state sales taxes and $3.3 million in hotel taxes. Year-to-date revenue collections through April include $59million in property taxes, $41.2 million in local option sales taxes (remitted in April for sales in February), $9.4 million in state salestaxes (remitted in April for sales in February) and $2.1 million in hotel taxes. Given that Tennessee municipalities had a relatively shortterm shut down period due to the Coronavirus, revenues will not be impacted as dramatically as other places in the nation. Most retailwithin Murfreesboro are open with capacity limitations through May 31st, after which time it is anticipated that the state will allowbusinesses to resume normal operations. Tourism related revenues will be impacted for a longer period of time, however these onlyrepresent a small portion of the city's revenue base at approximately 1.7% of annual revenues. Management anticipates that givenstrong revenue collections in the first part of fiscal 2020, as well as strict expenditure controls, that the city will still be able to addmodestly to General Fund balance by the end of the fiscal year (June 30).

LIQUIDITYThe city finished fiscal 2019 with General Fund net cash of $62.6 million (37.4% of annual revenues) and Operating Fund net cash of$73.2 million (30.4% of annual revenues). These levels of cash will be sufficient to support city operations over the near term.

Debt and Pensions: Above-average but affordable debt profileThe city's debt burden will remain above-average due to expected future debt issuances which could total approximately $60 millionthrough fiscal 2023. Management has no intention of issuing debt in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022 and 2023 capital needs are still underdiscussion. Regardless, given the expanding nature of the tax base and added property tax revenue associated with this growth, thecity's higher debt burden will remain affordable.

The city's net direct debt burden is 2.6% of full value and increases to an even higher 3.3% when taking into consideration the debt ofoverlapping municipalities. Net of self-supporting debt issued for the utilities, the city's net direct debt burden is lower (but still roughlytwice that of the rating category median of 1.1%) at 2.0% of full value.

Annual debt service (including utility debt) was a higher 17.5% of fiscal 2019 operating revenues. However, the elevated percentageof operating revenues dedicated to debt service is slightly skewed due to the city's debt policy that calls for all of the city's debt to beretired within 15 years and any water debt to be retired in 20 years. Amortization of principal is rapid with 82% of debt repaid withinten years.



DEBT STRUCTUREThe city had approximately $62 million in outstanding variable rate debt or 13% of total debt as of fiscal 2019. After the currentrefinancing issues and the electric system's cash pay down, variable rate debt will be approximately $6.3 million, with all variable ratedebt paid off by fiscal 2021. This variable rate debt is comprised of loans from TMBF which provides liquidity facilities through the Bankof America, N.A. for put risk and has reasonable term-out provisions. Management reports the city may utilize variable rate debt forprimarily short-term projects and reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining a 15 year maximum payout schedule and health reservelevels to mitigate interest rate risks. The current bond issues will refund three of the city's outstanding variable rate loans for economicsavings.

DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVESThe city is not currently party to any derivative agreements.

PENSIONS AND OPEBPension costs are not a current source of pressure for the city and will remain manageable in the mid-term. The city maintains twosingle employer defined benefit pension plans, the City of Murfreesboro Employees' Pension Plan and the Murfreesboro ElectricDepartment Employee Pension as well as two defined contribution plans. The city also participates in the Tennessee ConsolidatedRetirement System, a multiple-employer, public employee retirement system. The defined benefit plan for city employees was closedto new participants hired after June 30, 2010 and the electric plan was closed to new participants hired after April 1, 2012. Both planswere replaced with defined contribution plans.

The actual contribution, of which 100% is contributed, for the defined benefit plans and PSPP was $10.9 million or 4.6% of operatingexpenditures. The city's combined three-year average adjusted net pension liability (ANPL), under Moody's methodology for adjustingreported pension data is $222.7 million, a slightly above average 0.93 times fiscal 2019 operating revenues. Moody's ANPL reflectscertain adjustments we make to improve comparability of reported pension liabilities. The adjustments are not intended to replace thecity's reported liability information, but to improve comparability with other rated entities.

Additionally, the city provides other post employment benefits (OPEB) on a pay-as-you-go basis. The city contributed $1.6 million inOPEBs in fiscal 2019. Fixed costs, inclusive of debt service, pension and OPEB expenditures, represent 19.1% of fiscal 2019 operatingrevenues.

ESG considerationsEnvironmental risks do not pose a credit risk over the next two years for the county. Moody's utilizes environmental exposure datafrom its affiliate Four Twenty Seven to assess environmental risk for specific issuers. Of the physical climate risks Four Twenty Seven,Murfreesboro's highest exposures are to heat stress and extreme rainfall which could result in severe flooding. These risks are howeverminimized by Murfreesboro's historically stable financial position and prudent management which provides added flexibility to respondto contingencies and resilience against potential short-term shocks.

We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health andsafety. We do not see any material immediate credit risks for Murfreesboro. However, the situation surrounding coronavirus is rapidlyevolving and the longer term impact will depend on both the severity and duration of the crisis. If our view of the credit quality ofMurfreesboro changes, we will update our opinion at that time.

The city maintains a formal fund balance policy which requires maintenance of unassigned General Fund balance of between 15-30%of annual General Fund operating revenues.

Tennessee Cities have an Institutional Framework score of “Aaa”, which is very strong. The sector has one or more major revenuesources that are not subject to any caps. Unpredictable revenue fluctuations tend to be moderate, or between 5-10% annually. Acrossthe sector, fixed and mandated costs are generally less than 25% of expenditures. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to beminor, under 5% annually.



Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 2

Murfreesboro (City of) TN

Scorecard Factors and Subfactors Measure Score

Economy/Tax Base (30%) [1]

Tax Base Size: Full Value (in 000s) $15,490,143 Aaa

Full Value Per Capita $109,592 Aa

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 103.4% Aa

Notching Factors:[2]

Institutional Presence Up

Finances (30%)

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 28.8% Aa

5-Year Dollar Change in Fund Balance as % of Revenues 1.0% A

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 30.4% Aaa

5-Year Dollar Change in Cash Balance as % of Revenues 6.7% A

Management (20%)

Institutional Framework Aaa Aaa

Operating History: 5-Year Average of Operating Revenues / Operating Expenditures 1.0x Baa

Debt and Pensions (20%)

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 2.0% A

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 1.3x A

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Full Value (%) 1.5% Aa

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Operating Revenues (x) 1.0x A

Notching Factors:[2]

Standardized Adjustments [3]: Unusually strong or weak security features: Secured by statute Up

Scorecard-Indicated Outcome Aa1

Assigned Rating Aa1

[1] Economy measures are based on data from the most recent year available.

[2] Notching Factors are specifically defined in the US Local Government General Obligation Debt methodology.

[3] Standardized adjustments are outlined in the GO Methodology Scorecard Inputs publication.

Sources: Moody's Investors Service, US Census Bureau, City Annual Financial Statements



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murfreesboro (city of ) tn · 2020. 5. 22. · murfreesboro (city of ) tn update to credit analysis...

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