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Page 1: Mutual Fund Review - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_MonthlyMF...Mutual Fund Review December 21, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Note: Whenever,

Mutual FundReview

Mutual Fund Review

December 21, 2017

Page 2: Mutual Fund Review - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_MonthlyMF...Mutual Fund Review December 21, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Note: Whenever,

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme.

Mutual Fund Review

Equity Markets ...................................................................................................... 2 Debt Markets ........................................................................................................ 3 MF industry synopsis ............................................................................................ 4 MF Category Analysis ........................................................................................... 5

Equity funds ....................................................................................................... 5 Equity diversified funds ......................................................................................... 6 Equity infrastructure funds ................................................................................... 7 Equity banking funds ............................................................................................. 7 Equity FMCG Funds ............................................................................................... 7 Equity Pharma funds ............................................................................................. 8 Equity Technology Funds ...................................................................................... 8

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ........................................................................... 9 Balanced funds ................................................................................................ 10 Monthly Income Plans (MIP) .......................................................................... 11 Arbitrage Funds ............................................................................................... 11 Debt funds ........................................................................................................ 12

Liquid Funds 13 Income funds ....................................................................................................... 14 Gilt Funds 15 Gold: Outlook anchored to geopolitical worries, Fed movement ...................... 16 Model Portfolios .................................................................................................. 17

Equity funds model portfolio ........................................................................... 17 Debt funds model portfolio .............................................................................. 18

Top Picks ............................................................................................................. 19

December 21, 2017

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Page 2

Equity Markets

Update

Indian headline benchmarks have been trading in a narrow range near

all-time levels in the last two months since November 2017. However,

broader indices, as represented by midcaps and small caps, continued

their upwards trajectory and made new highs almost on a daily basis in

December as well

The year 2017 has been an extremely rewarding one for retail mutual

fund investors. The category average return of large cap funds, multi

cap funds and mid & small cap funds in 2017 is around 30%, 32% and

41%, respectively

Global equity markets have also witnessed a positive momentum in the

last year with most major markets delivering returns in the range of 15-

30%. The same has also supported markets while the market

performance of India is in sync with its global peers

The equity market performance in 2017 has been more widespread with

most sectors except IT (~7%) and pharma (~-4%), which

underperformed while real estate (88%) outperformed delivering

returns in the range of 30-40%

Unlike the previous few quarters, which were marred by earnings

downgrades, corporate earnings, thus far, in Q2FY18 have not belied

expectations and have led consensus EPS for FY18 and FY19 to remain

stable. Retail consumer focused sectors like automobiles, consumer

durables, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), media and

entertainment, hospitality and retail posted strong double digit sales

growth indicating a revival in consumer demand. Sectors such as

cement also reported better-than-expected volume growth

Domestic mutual funds were dominant buyers in the CY17, pumping in

more than | 1 lakh crore in 2017 till November. Investment by mutual

funds is backed by consistent strong inflows by retail investors. Equity

oriented funds witnessed ~| 18300 crore of inflows in 2017 till October

Outlook

The outlook for the market continues to remain positive. Recent

quarterly results were in line with expectations and indicate earnings

recovery, going forward, could be far better as is widely expected

GST implementation, demonetisation impact and the medium term

benefit of both these events is likely to be witnessed, going forward

Relative unattractiveness of other asset classes is likely to continue to

attract inflows into equity market

Investors who continued their SIP or systematic investment approach

benefitted the most from the market rally in 2017. Year 2016 was very

volatile and saw sharp market movements dominated by global markets

and demonetisation. Investors who continued their investment during

this period accumulated funds at lower levels and later benefitted from

the rally in recent months. Time and again it has been witnessed that

volatility is a blessing in disguise for long term investors

The overall bias remains positive. However, given the sharp rally in

recent months, it is better to avoid lumpsum investment and continue

with the staggered buying approach

Nifty 50: Markets remain near all-time highs

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Smallcap, midcap indices remain outperformer

3.7

2.6

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.8

0

1

2

3

4

BS

E S

mall cap

BS

E M

idcap

BS

E 5

00

BS

E 2

00

BS

E 1

00

Sensex

Source: Bloomberg

One month returns till November 15, 2017

Real estate, capital goods bounce back, healthcare,

metals drag

4

3 3 3

2

1

1

-1

-1

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Oil n G

as

Auto

Healthcare

FM

CG IT

CG

Real Estate

Metals

Bankin

g

Source: Bloomberg

One month returns till November 15, 2017

Research Analyst

Sachin Jain

[email protected]

Jaimin Desai

[email protected]

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Page 3

Debt Markets

Update

The Indian fixed income market remained under pressure especially

longer dated securities with G-sec yields continuing to inch upwards

due to concerns arising from rising inflation, fear of fiscal slippage,

rising international crude oil prices and higher global bond yields

The yield on the 10-year benchmark crossed 7.0% in November and

rose to 7.1% before the monetary policy meeting in the first week of

December 2017. The yield on 10-year AAA corporate bonds moved in

tandem with G-sec yields and rose close to 7.9%

RBI in its monetary policy maintained status quo on the repo rate at

6.0%, as per expectations. The monetary policy decision was favoured

by five of the six committee members, with the solitary dissent (Mr

Dholakia) in favour of a policy rate reduction of at least 25 bps

RBI retained its neutral policy stance, with GVA projections at 6.7%.

They marginally raised H2FY18 CPI estimates at 4.3-4.7%. Upside

inflationary risks are from higher oil prices, state’s HRA impact, fiscal

slippages, rising inflation expectations and higher input costs

From a significant surplus, domestic liquidity has continued to decline

on the back of currency leakage, open market sales and MSS. In the

post policy conference, RBI noted that it expects system liquidity to be

neutral by H1FY19. The clarity provided on RBI’s liquidity operations is

welcome. It seems OMO actions would be undertaken in response to

forex flows while OMO sale would not happen to drain liquidity

Outlook

We do not expect a reversal in the interest rate cycle in the near future

and expect RBI to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.0% during CY18

The recent up move in G-Sec yield with 10-year yield moving to around

7.15% is more of a retracement of bullish positioning as investors

adjust from declining rate cycle to a prolonged status quo phase in

benchmark rates

Historically, 10-year G-Sec yield spread over repo ranges between 40

bps and 120bps for most of the period. We believe the current spread

of 115 bps will narrow down once negative sentiments fades. Corporate

bond spread is also likely to be at historic low levels as investors search

for higher accrual in a stable interest rate environment

Short-term accrual debt funds with mix of AAA/AA/A rated papers and

low expense ratio offer a better investment option

G-sec yields break above 7% after 14 months

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Yie

ld (%

)

Source: Bloomberg

G-sec yield curve: Yields steepen across

maturities

6.14

6.59

6.88

7.05

6.28

6.62

6.99

7.20

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr

Yie

ld (%

)

13-Dec-17 14-Nov-17

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

AAA corporate bond yield curve steepens across

maturities

6.99

7.307.33

7.90

7.03

7.40

7.57

7.96

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

8.0

1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr

Yie

ld (%

)

13-Dec-17 14-Nov-17

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Page 4

MF industry synopsis

Total assets managed by mutual funds touched a fresh record high of

~| 22.8 lakh crore in November 2017, up ~6.4% over the October

figure of | 21.4 lakh crore. This represents a ~38.1% increase YoY. Of

the total MF corpus, ~38% was held by income funds and ~32% by

equity and ELSS funds

According to AMFI data, systematic investment plans (SIPs) inflows for

November were at ~| 5900 crore, up from ~| 5600 crore previously.

SIP inflows average ~| 5000 crore per month in FY18 against ~| 3600

crore per month in FY17, a rise of 39%. The trend of rise in SIP inflows

is a welcome one. However, SIP flows as a percentage of inflows into

equity and equity-oriented funds has reduced from ~36% in FY17 to

~25% in FY18. This suggests that while more and more investors are

turning to SIPs as a preferred investment mode (the number of SIP

folios has zoomed 33% in FY18), the majority of equity inflows are

lumpsum in nature

In the trailing 12 months, the mutual fund industry saw a net inflow of

| 4.55 lakh crore. Out of the total net inflow, | 1.35 lakh crore came into

equity and ELSS funds, about 32%

Thus far, inflows into equity and equity oriented flows in FY18 are

averaging ~| 20000 crore per month, nearly double that in FY17.

November saw a net inflow of ~| 38085 crore in equity and equity-

oriented funds, of which | 12447 crore was in ETFs, aided by Bharat 22

ETF issue

Exhibit 1: Equity, equity-oriented funds receiving ~|20,000 crore per

month on average, thus far in FY18…

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

2200000

2400000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Total AUM

Source: AMFI

Exhibit 2: AUM of Top 10 AMCs 304,940

289,786

247,201

243,758

206,522

156,446

124,358

102,579

90,099

77,486

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

ICICI

HD

FC

Reliance

Aditya

Birla SB

I

UTI

Kotak

Franklin

DS

P

Axis

AUM

Source: ACE MF

Exhibit 3: Franklin Templeton has highest proportion of equity AUM as

percentage of its AUM, SBI a close second

48%

47%

43%

39%

39%

35%

34%

34%

32%

30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Franklin

SB

I

HD

FC

ICICI

DS

P

Axis

Reliance

UTI

Kotak

Aditya B

irla

Equity % Debt% Others%

Source: ACE MF. Data as of October 2017

Exhibit 4: Within retail category, equity funds witness significant inflows

in FY17…

-2000

4000

10000

16000

22000

28000

34000

40000

46000

52000

58000

EQ

UITY

BA

LA

NC

ED

OTH

ER

ETFs

ELS

S -

EQ

UITY

GO

LD

ETFs

GILT

FY16

Source: ACE MF. Data as on March 2017

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Page 5

MF Category Analysis

Equity funds

FMCG funds emerged as the best performing category of equity funds.

This category along with infrastructure as well as banking funds

continued to outperform information technology (IT) and pharma funds

by wide margins. Pharma funds were once again in the red, returning

~(2.1)%

In terms of market cap-based funds, midcap funds continued their

dominance over large cap funds. Overall, midcap funds were among

the best performing equity fund categories on a one-year basis

Structural industrywide problems continue to plague pharma and

technology funds. Pharma stocks delivered a muted performance in

Q2FY18 amid persistent pressure over pricing, compliance issues and a

fear of shrinking growth in the large US market. Challenges to

traditional services, H1B visa issues and US government action fears

persisted on overhangs over technology stocks and consequently,

technology funds

Exhibit 5: FMCG funds outperform other categories on a one year basis with pharma funds still

under pressure (returns as on December 18, 2017)

S

45.0

41.0

39.9

36.9

32.8

29.7

15.5

-2.1

15.2

19.1

15.2

11.6

13.7

11.1

6.2

3.5

15.4

25.1

16.8

13.4 18.0

14.9

18.0

15.0

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

FMCG Mid cap Infrastructure Banking Multi cap Large Cap Technology Pharma

Returns (%

)

1 year 3 Year 5 year

Source: Crisil, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns

Exhibit 6: Strong inflows continue into equity and ELSS schemes

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Net Inflo

w ( | C

r )

Equity + ELSS

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Robust inflow in equity funds push up AUM to cross | 7 lakh

crore

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

650000

700000

750000

800000

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7

| lakh C

rore

Equity +ELSS

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Page 6

Equity diversified funds

Equity diversified funds witnessed robust growth over the last three

years, with AUM within each sub-category rising substantially. In the

last three years in FY14-17, the AUM of large cap funds rose 119%,

multi cap funds AUM rose 100% while midcap funds AUM rose 198%

Over this period, while all three sub-categories delivered a strong

performance (Exhibit 8), midcap funds have done exceedingly well and

outperformed. This is reflected in the trend of broader indices

outperforming bellwether indices over this time frame. However, large

cap funds have reversed that trend at some points during the past few

months

Multicap funds are relatively more market cap agnostic and hold

positions in a wider range of companies than pure large cap funds or

pure midcap/small cap funds. Multicap funds generally hold around 50-

60% of their portfolio in large cap stocks and 30-40% in midcap stocks.

They have benefited by capturing a part of the midcap rally during this

period and, thus, outperformed pure large cap funds

In the present market scenario, bottom up stock picking across the

market segment is more important than allocation to a particular

segment or sub sector. Multicap funds offer fund managers flexibility to

allocate funds across all market segment and are, therefore, relatively

better placed

Exhibit 8: Blistering AUM growth across all equity diversified fund sub-categories from 2014

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Nov 12

Nov 13

Nov 14

Nov 15

Nov 16

Nov 17

|crs

Large Caps Multi Caps Mid Caps

Source: ACE MF

Recommended funds

Large cap

Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity

ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity

SBI Bluechip Fund

Multi cap

Franklin India Prima Plus Fund

Kotak Select Focus Fund

Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund

Midcap

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund

L&T Emerging Businesses Fund

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

View

Short term: Positive

Long-term: Positive

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Page 7

Equity infrastructure funds

The government recently announced its historic road building

programme to construct 83677 km of roads over the next five years at a

total outlay of | 6.92 lakh crore. This also includes phase 1 of

Bharatmala project, which includes construction of 34800 km of roads

at an investment of | 5.35 lakh crore in the next five years. Government

spending and focused push towards sectors such as roads, railways,

housing and power could lead to greater opportunities to infrastructure

players, apart from the benefit of increased transparency in the system

A number of infrastructure related government schemes and the

introduction of new regulatory measures are expected to help

organised players in the infrastructure space over the medium to long

term, placing infrastructure and ancillary stocks on an attractive footing

Preferred Picks

Aditya Birla SL Infrastructure Fund Refer

www.icicidirect.com for

details of the fund

L&T Infrastructure Fund

Reliance Diversified Power Sector Fund

Equity banking funds

There was some good news on the asset quality front as PSU banks

reported lower slippages in Q2FY18 than in the previous quarter.

Operating earnings of the banking system grew at a healthy rate of

12.2% YoY but higher provisions during the quarter impacted profits. A

key monitorable, going forward, would be the resolution of accounts

referred to NCLT in ensuing quarters. On the credit growth front,

incremental loan demand, going forward, is expected to arise from

capex revival against working capital and retail loans this past year

We remain optimistic on the banking sector keeping in mind the

anticipated pick-up in credit offtake. Steady margins and peaking out of

the NPA cycle are expected to further aid profitability

From a long term point of view, the PSU bank recapitalisation

programme is a structural positive for the sector. Finer details about the

recapitalisation bonds are awaited. The continued government push on

financial inclusion, reduction in the black economy, enhanced

awareness and increased usage of digital or electronic payments will be

positives for the banking industry from an operating cost perspective

Preferred Picks

ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Refer to

www.icicidirect.com for

details of the fund

Reliance Banking Fund

UTI Banking Sector Fund

Equity FMCG Funds

Several FMCG companies enjoyed strong volume growth on the back

of restocking by trade channels in Q2FY18. Most companies witnessed

strong pre-festive demand along with healthy rural growth spurred by

good monsoons. Many companies are aggressively focusing on digital

advertisement to reach larger audiences at a reduced spend

We maintain our positive outlook on the FMCG sector backed by the

rural consumption revival led by largely normal monsoons and the

government’s focus on increasing farm incomes. We also expect GST

implementation to eventually provide a big boost to FMCG companies,

particularly those present in personal care and household categories

Preferred Picks

ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund Referwww.icicidirect.com

for details of the fund SBI FMCG Fund

View

Short-term: Positive

Long-term: Positive

View

Short-term: Positive

Long-term: Positive

View

Short-term: Positive

Long-term: Positive

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Page 8

Equity Pharma funds

Pharmaceutical companies reported a muted Q2FY18 performance as

expected. Q1FY18 was also quite poor for the sector. Relief on the US

front is unlikely despite faster clearances for plants. A challenging

environment in the US outweighed domestic formulations recovery

post GST implementation. Leading players in the US market continue to

be bogged down by price erosion borne out of intense competition and

client consolidation. Pharma, being a largely export-oriented sector,

faces additional pressure from emergence of a stronger rupee

However, despite these apprehensions, in the long term, we remain

optimistic about the sector’s prospects on the back of attractive

valuations and earnings momentum pick-up led by incremental product

launches in the US besides normalising Indian formulations growth

Preferred Picks

Reliance Pharma Fund Refer to

www.icicidirect.com

for details of the fund

SBI Pharma Fund

UTI-Pharma & Healthcare

Equity Technology Funds

Technology companies reported muted results, as expected, with cross

currency tailwinds helping Tier-I IT companies post 2.8% sequentially

higher dollar revenue growth in Q2FY18. Subdued corporate results

demonstrate the shifting business environment in the technology

sector. Future expectations would be centred around management

guidance. In the short-term, rupee appreciation, increased local hiring

and demand for investments in digital would need monitoring, from a

margins perspective

We maintain our neutral stance on the sector as the industry faces

challenges related to US immigration rules and growing protectionism

around the world leading to marginal IT spending by companies. The

industry would continue to witness pricing pressure in its traditional

business, which is currently unable to offset newer revenue streams

from digital areas that enjoys higher margins

Preferred Picks

ICICI Prudential Technology Fund Refer to

www.icicidirect.com for

details of the fund

DSPBR Technology fund

View

Short-term: Neutral

Long-term: Neutral

View

Short-term: Neutral

Long-term: Positive

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Page 9

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)

In India, three kinds of ETFs are available: Equity index ETFs, liquid

ETFs and gold ETFs

An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE

Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc

An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds.

The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-0.75% in

comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for equity ETFs is in the

range of 0.05-0.25% while for index funds the expense ratio varies in

the range of 0.50-1.25%. However, brokerage (which varies) is

applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds

Tracking error, which explains extent of deviation of returns from the

underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity index on

a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for index funds

ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and

investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis.

This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only

on a closing NAV basis

In August 2015, the Labour Ministry decided to invest 5% of

Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation’s (EPFO) incremental corpus

in ETFs. The investment in equities is split between the Nifty ETF (75%)

and Sensex ETFs 25%. EPFO chose two ETF schemes of SBI Mutual

Fund — SBI ETF Nifty and SBI Sensex ETF

In 2016, the EPFO hiked the limit from 5% to 10% of its incremental

corpus of investment in equities, which was further increased to 15% of

its incremental corpus in May 2017. This is a positive move since

retirement savings, which are long term in nature, will be invested in

equities that have the potential to generate higher returns. So far, EPFO

has invested a total of ~| 22,000 crore in exchange traded funds as of

April 2017

Over 400 ETFs are traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost

efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed

by the decision on getting exposure to that asset class

Exhibit 9: Sensex/Nifty ETFs receiving consistently higher inflows…

2830

4349

6748

930

3599

456 5841365

1753 15131968 1675

12447

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Net Inflo

w ( | C

r )

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: …leading to consistent increase in AUM

25211

28834

37412

40147

44436

45899

47584

48359

52823

53734

55166

60107

70041

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

| C

rore

Other ETFs

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used

while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes

ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors...

Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the

deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge...

..traded volume should be the major criteria to be

considered while deciding on investment in ETFs.

Higher volumes ensure lower spread and better

pricing to investors...

..tracking error though should be considered but is

not the deciding factors as variation among funds

is not huge...

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Page 10

Balanced funds

The balanced funds category continued to receive significant flows,

with the average monthly inflow (net) for 12 months to November 2017

amounting to ~ | 6500 crore

The AUM of balanced funds has witnessed a stellar increase during this

period, more than doubling to | 155105 crore in November 2017 from

| 62907 crore in the year ago period

Over the last two or three years, the balanced space has emerged as

one of the fastest growing equity categories and offers an ideal gateway

for first time retail equity investors. In FY17, balanced funds AUM

growth outpaced all other categories bar non-gold ETFs

Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio

is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act,

1961, any capital gains over a year become tax free. Also, dividends

declared by funds are tax free in the hands of the investor

In case one separately invests 35% of one’s investible corpus in a debt

fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole

corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation

applicable as mentioned above. Thus, balanced funds offer the benefit

of equity taxation on debt component

After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred

investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on

intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing minimum

65% participation on further upsides

Exhibit 11: Inflows into balanced funds bounce back after some

moderation in the previous two months

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Net Inflo

w ( | C

r )

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: YoY 147% growth in AUM of balanced funds

62907

64954

71021

77126

84763

93530

102156

109513

121243

128320

134868

147460

155105

13000

33000

53000

73000

93000

113000

133000

153000

173000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

| C

rore

Balanced

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Preferred Picks

ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund

HDFC Balanced Fund

Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 Fund

DSP Blackrock Balanced Fund

L&T India Prudence Fund

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk

appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can

look to invest in these funds

View

Short-term: Positive

Long-term: Positive

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Page 11

Monthly Income Plans (MIP)

An MIP offers investors the option to invest in debt with some

participation in equity, ~10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for

investors who seek higher returns from a debt portfolio and are

comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio

provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides

alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities

MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based

on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with

lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion

The change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be

applicable to MIP funds (refer debt funds section for details)

Preferred Picks

Aditya Birla Sun Life MIP II - Wealth 25 Plan

ICICI Prudential MIP 25

SBI Magnum MIP Fund

SBI Magnum MIP Floater Fund

(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

Arbitrage Funds

Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested

as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets

Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market

scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts

speculators in the market while cost of funding makes futures positions

biased

Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity

share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as

equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free.

No capital gains tax will be applicable if they are sold after a year

These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds.

However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage

opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should

consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage

funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want

consistent return across time period

Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not

be a major part of the investor’s portfolio. A range bound market does

not give ample room to create arbitrage positions

Preferred Picks

ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular

IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular)

Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund

SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

View

Short-term: Neutral

Long-term: Positive

View

Short-term: Neutral

Long-term: Neutral

MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that

need to be parked for over two years

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Page 12

Debt funds

Exhibit 13: Category average returns

6.1

6.5

7.8

5.2 6

.2

8.0

6.2

6.2 7

.2

2.6

4.6

7.8

-0.4

3.3

8.2

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

6 months 1 year 3year

%

Gilt Funds Income LT Income ST Income UST Liquid

Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect.com Research

Note : Returns as on December 18, 2017; All returns are compounded annualised

Exhibit 14: G-sec yield curve

6.14

6.59

6.88

7.05

6.28

6.62

6.99

7.20

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr

Yie

ld (%

)

13-Dec-17 14-Nov-17

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 15: Corporate bond curve

6.99

7.307.33

7.90

7.03

7.40

7.57

7.96

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

8.0

1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr

Yie

ld (%

)

13-Dec-17 14-Nov-17

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Benchmark 10 year G-Sec has witnessed yields

hardening to 15 month highs in December

Interest rates moved up secularly across G-Sec and

corporate bond categories

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Page 13

Liquid Funds

Yields on money market instruments viz. less than one year CDs and

CPs in which liquid fund predominantly invest, remain stable at lower

levels due to ample liquidity

In an uncertain environment, liquid funds remain well placed to park

money with low volatility

For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for

dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is

marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has reduced, they still

earn better pre-tax returns over bank savings (3-4%) and current

accounts (0-3%)

Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are also

applicable to liquid funds, as post tax returns in less than a three-year

period get reduced for individuals in the higher tax bracket (30% tax

slab) and for corporate

Exhibit 16: Call rates below repo rate

5

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

%

Call rate

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 17: CP/CD yields

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

%

3M CD 3M CP

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 18: Flows into liquid funds remain volatile on institutional activity

1,350

26,943

10,541

8,227

-15,147

99,403

-64,692

-12,739

-19,511

21,352

4,833

-13,261

77,408

-200,000

-160,000

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Net Inflo

w ( | C

r )

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 19: AUM remains healthy

468668

469675

496696

520020

543541

568770

583557

591377

629456

643926

659182

707989

733166

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

| la

kh C

rore

Money Market

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Preferred Picks

HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan

SBI Magnum InstaCash

Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

View

Neutral

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Page 14

Income funds

Continued rise in crude oil prices, higher inflation data than expected

and fears of fiscal slippage helped drive benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield

towards 7.2% mark. November’s pick up in CPI inflation to a 15 month

high of 4.88% was above expectations. It followed consecutively higher

inflation readings from July to October. The December MPC policy

document outlined aspects such as persistence in core & fuel inflation,

HRA implementation by the central government and the uncertainty

surrounding fiscal discipline as some factors influencing its decision to

maintain status quo on rates. Food prices rose in November on the back

of a spike in vegetables and eggs while the percolation effects of HRA

implementation for government employees and crude-led spurts in the

fuel basket were also apparent. All segments constituting core inflation

also rose. The RBI marginally revised upwards its inflation projection for

H2FY18 by 10 bps to 4.3-4.7%

Short-term funds or short term funds with some dynamic allocation to

G-sec should be preferred over pure G-Sec funds or long-term duration

funds. Short-term debt funds remain a stable performing category,

especially in the current volatile environment. Credit funds with

reasonable credit quality should be preferred over an aggressive credit

fund

Exhibit 20: Income funds inflows

18,3

06

-33,1

82

28,5

88

10,8

64

-56,2

47

34,6

47

5,1

24

-20,6

85

60,0

84

8,3

90

-50,0

90

40,8

45

9,3

74

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Nov-1

6

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Net In

flow

s

(| .

Cr)

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 21: AUM remains stable on consistent inflows

784305

748071

783778

794679

743783

780797

792734

778266

845484

858188

809965

855478

867736

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Nov-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jan-1

7

Feb-1

7

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7

| C

rore

Income

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recommended funds

Ultra Short Term Funds

Birla Sun Life Savings Fund

ICICI Prudential Flexible income

Short Term Funds

Birla Sunlife short term fund

HDFC Short Term Fund

ICICI Pru Short Term Plan

Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities

Axis Regular Savings Fund

Aditya Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan

L&T Short Term Fund

Long term/Dynamic

Birla Sunlife income plus

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund

IDFC dynamic bond fund

(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

View

Ultra-short term: Neutral

Short-term: Positive

Long-term: Neutral

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Page 15

Gilt Funds

Yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond hardened

appreciably in early December towards the 7.2% mark, a 15 month

high. Soft inflation combined with strong institutional flows into debt

markets helped push down benchmark 10-year G-sec yield by ~45-50

points in May-July. The markets were not enthused by the widely

expected rate cut in August and lower-than-expected dovish RBI

commentary in October. A significant rebound in July-November CPI

readings was followed by a rise in yields by ~25 bps from ~6.50%

(early September) to 7.02% (December 13)

RBI held status quo on policy rates and maintained a neutral stance in

its December 6 policy meet as expected. November’s pick-up in CPI

inflation to a 15 month high of 4.88% was above expectations. It

followed consecutively higher inflation readings from July to October.

The December MPC policy document outlined aspects such as

persistence in core & fuel inflation, HRA implementation by the central

government and uncertainty surrounding fiscal discipline as some

factors influencing its decision to maintain status quo on rates. Food

prices rose in November on the back of a spike in vegetables and eggs

while the percolation effects of HRA implementation for government

employees and crude-led spurts in the fuel basket were also apparent.

All segments constituting core inflation also rose. The RBI marginally

revised upwards its inflation projection for H2FY18 by 10 bps to 4.3-

4.7%

Given how inflation seems to be edging higher post June driven by

higher fuel prices, GST, HRA implementation, unfavourable base effect

in vegetable prices and US Fed rate hike in December, there appears

quite limited scope for yields to soften. Allocation to pure G-sec or

duration funds should be avoided given their historical outperformance

and G-sec yields trading at the lower end of their historical range.

Historically, it has been observed that years of good returns in G-sec

are followed by lower returns

Exhibit 22: Historical trend in return from G-sec indicates, going forward, returns likely to be lower

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 YTD

Crisil 10 Yr Gilt Index

%

Source: ACE MF

Preferred Picks

Aditya Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus – PF Plan

ICICI Pru LT Gilt Fund – PF Option

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

Allocation to pure G-Sec or duration funds should be

avoided given their historical outperformance and G-sec

yield trading at the lower end of its historical range. Crisil

10-year Gilt index has delivered 38% return in the last

three years. It is likely the return will be significantly

decline, going forward

View

Short-term: Neutral

Long-term: Neutral

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Gold: Outlook anchored to Fed movement

Global prices were rangebound in November and, thereafter, dropped

in the first two weeks of December. Starting from a base of ~US$1271

per ounce, prices remained within a narrow range of US$1275-1295 for

the month. They dipped lower towards ~US$1250 per ounce in mid-

December. The closing price of ~US$1262 per ounce on December 18

represents a ~9.5% YTD return

A sharp rupee appreciation in 2017 of ~5.8% against the US dollar has

curbed gains in domestic gold prices, limiting them to ~2.7% YTD as of

December 15

With geopolitical tensions on the backburner currently, Federal

Reserve’s movement on US interest rates has driven gold price outlook.

Earlier, the safe haven status of the yellow metal had sparked buying

interest as concerns surrounding North Korea escalated in August

The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected in December. This

was the third hike in 2017 as per earlier outlined trajectory. US bond

yields and the US dollar both gained marginally in the days following

the hike decision. These movements could weigh on gold prices as the

metal is denominated in that currency (thus losing value when the

currency appreciates) and does not bear interest (thus suffering from a

higher opportunity cost)

US bond yields hardened towards the 2.4% mark in the run up to the

Fed meeting as expectations surrounding the rate hike gathered pace.

Additionally, the US Dollar Index rallied to three month highs in

October, impacting prices of the dollar denominated yellow metal

US inflation remains well below the targeted 2% mark but has seen a

marginal pick-up in recent months. Unemployment is at a multi-year

low. Three hikes are pencilled in for 2018 but decisions would be data

driven

Gold has historically been looked at as a relatively risk-free asset. Its

price movement both in India and globally, is impacted by any actual or

perceived risk build-up on economic, political or natural fronts

Exhibit 23: Gold prices dip in November

1100

1200

1300

1400

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Price ($/ounce)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 24: Indian price rise more subdued on YTD basis

26000

28000

30000

32000

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-1

7

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Price (|/10 grams)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Page 17

Model Portfolios

Equity funds model portfolio

Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get

returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route.

We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely,

conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These

portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like

investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund

management.

Exhibit 25: Equity model portfolio

Particulars Aggressive Moderate Conservative

Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly

Risk Return High Risk- High

Return

Medium Risk -

Medium Return

Low Risk - Low

Return

Funds Allocation % Allocation

Franklin India Prima Plus 20 20 20

Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity - 20 20

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - - 20

SBI Bluechip Fund 20 20 20

Kotak Select Focus Fund 20 20 -

HDFC Midcap Opportunities 20 10 -

Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund 20 - -

Birla SL Dynamic Bond Fund - 10 20

Total 100 100 100

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 26: Model portfolio performance: One year performance (as on November 30, 2017)

26.2%

21.1%

18.9%

26.9%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100

%

Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Debt funds model portfolio

We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different

investment duration viz. less than six months, six months to one year and

above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind

various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios,

credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc.

Exhibit 27: Debt funds model portfolio

Particulars

0 – 6 months 6months - 1 Year Above 1 Year

Objective Liquidity

Liquidity with

moderate return Above FD

Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly

Risk Return

Very Low Risk -

Nominal Return

Medium Risk -

Medium Return

Low Risk - High

Return

Funds Allocation

Ultra Short term Funds

Birla SL Savings Fund 20

ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 20

Short Term Debt Funds

Axis Regular Savings Fund 20

Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund 20 20

Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund 20 20

Reliance Regular Savings Fund 20

HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund 20 20

ICICI Prudential Regular Savings 20

ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 20

IDFC SSI Short Term 20

UTI Short Term Income Fund 20

HDFC Corporate Debt opportunities fund 20

Total 100 100 100

Time Horizon

% Allocation

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 32: Model portfolio performance: One year performance (as on November 30, 2017)

7.08

7.53

7.137.11

7.27

6.60

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

0-6 Months 6Months - 1Year Above 1yr

%

Portfolio Index

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research

*Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Blended Index with 50% weight to Crisil

Liquid Index, 50% weight to Crisil Short Term Index; Above 1 year: Crisil Short Term Index

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Page 19

Top Picks

Exhibit 33: Category wise top picks

Largecaps Birla Sun life Frontline Equity Fund

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Fund

SBI Bluechip Fund

Midcaps HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund

L&T Emerging Businesses Fund

Multicaps Franklin India Prima Plus Fund

Kotak Select Focus Fund

Motilal Oswal MOSt Focussed Multicap 35 Fund

ELSS Aditya Birla Tax Relief 96 Fund

Axis Long Term Equity Fund

Reliance Tax Saver Fund

Franklin India Taxshield

Balanced HDFC Balanced Fund

ICICI Pru Balanced Fund

Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 Fund

DSP Blackrock Balanced Fund

L&T India Prudence Fund

Liquid HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan

ICICI Pru Liquid Plan

Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan

Ultra Short term Birla Sunlife Savings Fund

ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan

UTI Treasury Advantage Fund-Inst

Short term Birla SL Short term Fund

HDFC Medium Term opportunities Fund

Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund

Credit Opportunities Axis Regular Savings Fund

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan

L&T Short Term Income Fund

Income Funds ICICI Pru Income Fund

Equity Funds & Equity-oriented Funds

Debt Funds & Debt-oriented Funds

(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

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Page 20

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st

Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No. 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We, Sachin Jain, CA, and Jaimin Desai, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect

our views about the subject issuer(s) or Funds. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990.Registered office of I-

Sec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Centre, H. T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate,Mumbai - 400020, India. ICICI Securities is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the

business of stock broking and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries

engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, distribution of financial products etc. (“associates”), the details in

respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

ICICI Securities is one of the leading distributors of Mutual Funds and participate in distribution of Mutual Fund Schemes of almost all AMCs in India.

The selection of the Mutual Funds for the purpose of including in the indicative portfolio does not in any way constitute any recommendation by ICICI Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as ICICI

Securities) with respect to the prospects or performance of these Mutual Funds. The investor has the discretion to buy all or any of the Mutual Fund units forming part of any of the indicative portfolios

on icicidirect.com. Before placing an order to buy the funds forming part of the indicative portfolio, the investor has the discretion to deselect any of the units, which he does not wish to buy. Nothing in

the indicative portfolio constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the investor's specific circumstances.

The details included in the indicative portfolio are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its

accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The funds included in the indicative portfolio may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own

investment objectives, financial positions and needs.

This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any investor. The investor should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept

no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this indicative portfolio.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities may be holding all or any of the units included

in the indicative portfolio from time to time as part of our treasury management. ICICI Securities Limited is not providing the service of Portfolio Management Services (Discretionary or Non

Discretionary) to its clients.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

Kindly note that such research recommended funds in indicative portfolio are not based on individual risk profile of each customer unless a customer has opted for a paid Investment Advisory Service

offered by I-Sec.

Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

The information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any

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