mutual learning exercise evaluating business grants - rio mle sme caturing... · customer offer...
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Mutual Learning Exercise
Evaluating Business Grants
Capturing Behavioral Change
Göran Marklund
2016-11-03
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Marklund,G (based on Geels, 2011) Value Transformation
Syst
em
Tra
nsi
tio
n
Paradigm
Transition
General conditions
Landscape Global challenges
Socio-Technical
Regime
System Innovation Mechanisms
Variation
Selection
Amplification
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Motives
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Why Public
SME Business
Grants? 1(4)
Branscomb, L.M. och Auerswald, P.E., Between Invention and Innovation – An Analysis of Funding for Early-Stage Technological Development,
NIST GCR 02-841, Washington D.C., 2002
Variation – Selection – Amplification
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Why Public (SME) Business Grants 2(4)?
Business R&D Allocation Patterns
Branscomb, L.M. and Auerswald, P.E., Between Invention and Innovation – An Analysis of Funding for Early-Stage Technology Development,
ATP, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Washington DC, 2002
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Why Public (SME) Business Grants 3(4)?
Four different innovation routes
Auerswald, P.E., Branscomb, L.M., Demos, N., Min, B.K., Understanding Private-sector Decision-Making for Early-Stage Technology Development – A
“Between Invention and Innovation Project” Report, NIST GCR 02-841A, Washington D.C., 2005
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Why Public (SME) Business Grants 4(4)?
Private vs. Social Benefits
Vinnova ”Uncertainty Degree”
”Non-probalistic – Ex ante”
Jaffe, A. (1998) The importance of "spillovers" in the policy mission of the advance technology program.
Journal of Technology Transfer
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Different Types and Scale of Impacts
Evaluation – Learning
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Innovation Journey
Expectations
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Idea
test Idea
Concept
verification
Customer
offer
Market
delivery
Ack
um
ulate
d
Pro
fits - Inve
stm
en
ts
I II III
Break
even
Early Development Stage
Vinnova’s SME Business Grants
Three Grant Types – Stage Gate Principle
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Idea Verification
Financing Certification
Risk Certification
Growth Processes
Subsequent Projects
R&D Projects Selection
Increased R&D-investments
R&D-cooperations
Intangible Assets
Licensing
Market Introduction
Value Added
Export
Product Profitability
Firm Level Profitability
Business Firm Growth
10 years
5 years
Spillover Processes
15 years
System Impacts
Ideation Volume
Idea Testing
Impact Logic
2
1
Organising Processes
Further Development Buy Outs & Mergers
Scaling up
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X
Y
1
2
3
Z
Z
Business
Firm
”Innovation
Journey”
Business
Group
Business
Networks
Value Systems
Value Chain
Development
Value Chain
Development
Funded
”Project”
Portfolio Expectations
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Methodological
Implications
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B1
Bu
sin
ess F
irm
P
ersp
ec
tive
P
ro
je
ct A
sse
t P
ersp
ec
tive
B2
B1 B2 B1 B2
B1 B2
B3
B1 B2
B3
B1 B2
B3
Idea
test Idea
Concept
verification
Customer
offer
Market
delivery
Ack
um
ulate
d
Pro
fits - Inve
stm
en
ts
I II III
Break
even
Ack
um
ulate
d
Pro
fits - Inve
stm
en
ts
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Population
Distribution
Loss
Profit
Control Group Challenges Type I
Betalar för resten
Normalfördelningskurva
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Firm X
Business Group
A
Narrow and Static Business Firm Focus
Control Group Challenges Type II
Project
Business Firm Structure
Firm Y
Firm Z
Intangible
Asset
License
Use
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Method Triangulation
Innovation
Knowledge
Frontier
Longitudinal
Intangible Asset
Monitoring
Project
Development
Monitoring
Long-term
Counter Factual
Analysis
System Analysis
𝑡0- 𝑡3
𝑡0- 𝑡10
𝑡7- 𝑡10
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Methodological Framework
For Understanding Impacts of SME Business Grants
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