myanmar’s hydropower strategy and its impact on industry players

www.duanemorris.com 1

MYANMAR’S HYDROPOWER STRATEGY

AND ITS IMPACT ON INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Oliver Massmann – Partner, General Director

www.duanemorris.com


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion

Outline of Presentation

Power planning

Hydropower strategy


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion


Power planning

Hydropower strategy

www.duanemorris.com 4 Source: World Energy Council, REN21, IHA

Global Electricity (2014)

Global power production

23,600 TWh

Including renewables

~5,400 TWh

4

www.duanemorris.com 5 Source: IHA and REN21

Top 8 Countries (2014)

for hydropower production Total capacity

GW

Added in 2014

MW

Generation

TWh

1) China 300 21,850 1,070

2) Brazil 89 3,312 392

3) Canada 78 1,724 376

4) United States 101 212 257

5) Russia 49 1,058 164

6) Norway 31 - 136

7) India 44 1,195 125

8) Japan 45 724 85

Rest of World 318 14,925 1,345

World Total 1,055 45,000 3,950

Myanmar 3.1 160 15.8

5

www.duanemorris.com 6 Source: IHA and REN21

Top 10 Countries (2014)

by remaining hydropower potential Total potential

TWh/year

Current utilization

%

Undeveloped

TWh/year

1) Russia 1670 10 1502

2) China 2140 41 1259

3) Canada 1181 32 799

4) India 660 21 523

5) Brazil 818 48 425

6) Indonesia 402 3 389

7) Peru 395 6 379

8) DR Congo 314 2 307

9) Tajikistan 317 5 301

10)U.S 529 52 256

Myanmar 240 5 226

6


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion


Power planning

Hydropower strategy


Potential of Myanmar

(Major river basins)

8

River basin

Developed

capacity

(MW)

Under

construction

(MW)

Under

processing

(MW)

Potential

future

projects

(MW)

Total of

each

basin

(MW)

Ayeyarwady

Upper Ayeyarwady

Lower Ayeyarwady

1,870

149

2,056

150

15,200

-

6,000

-

25,126

299

Chindwin - - 380 1860 2,240

Sittaung 810 - 260 - 1,070

Thanlwin 302 81.4 15,395 765 16,543.4

Others 20 111 521 1,511.5 2,163.5

Total (MW) 3,151 2,398.4 31,756 10,136.5 47,441.9


Existing Electricity

9

Installed capacity 4,805 MW

Electricity generation 14,156 GWh

Electricity generation from hydropower 8829 GWh (62.4%)

No. of consumers 3.3 millions

Per capita consumptions 222 KWh

Electrification town 429 Nos (On grid)

Electrification villages 6626 Nos (On grid)

Electrification ratio 33%

Generator, 12783

Power System,

4785

Solar Power, 740

Bio Gas, 1213

Micro-Hydro, 2154

Generator Power System Solar Power Bio Gas Micro-Hydro

Power Sources of Villages (2012-13)

Kachin, 355 Kayah, 108 Kayin, 255

Chin, 294

Sagaing, 3815

Tanintharyi, 696

Bago, 1090

Magway, 2514

Mandalay, 2563

Mon, 573

Rakhine, 1016

Yangon, 455

Shan, 1848

Ayeyarwady, 5616

Naypyitaw, 477

Electrified Villages (2012-13)

Average

34%

(21,675) Average

34%

(21,675)


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion


Power planning

Hydropower strategy


Power Consumption Trend

11

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gro

wth

(%

)

En

erg

y (

GW

h)

Company Departmental

Temporary Street lighting

Commercial Industrial

General purpose Growth

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total

consumption

4355 4438 4701 4993 6315 7696 8254

Growth(%) - 1.9 5.9 6.2 26.5 21.5 7.2


Forecasting Conditions

12

Analysis step Conditions for the forecast Reference

Variable

setting

GDP High Case : 8.7% The growth rate of 2011-2012

Low Case : 6.4% IMF “Economic Outlook”

Elasticity 1.4 The average from the result of

2002-2010

Power

Consumption

Forecast

Potential

demand

4.4% Calculated from the load shedding

result data

Scenario High case Both industry and non-industry

sector will grow at 13%

Low case Industry sector will grow at 13% by

2020, afterwards, 9.8%

Non-industry sector will grow at

9.8% constantly


Industrial Complex

13

(Yangon Region)

Name Open Area

(ha) No. of

Factories Capacity

(MVA) Peak Load

(MW)

Dagon 1997 489.1 102 30 8.99

East Dagon 2000 317.3 45 25 7.08

North Okkalapa 1998 44.4 94 15 4.8

South Dagon 1992 300.8 2078 100 18.1

South Okkalapa 2000 14.2 95 10 2.3

Thaketa 1999 80.9 90 10 2.25

Shwepaukkan 1998 38.3 244 25 5.21

Shwelinpan 2002 445.2 203 35 12.9

Hlaingtharyar(1,2,3,4,6,7) 1995 567.1 519 75 42.1

Mingaladon Pyinmabin 1996 89.8 6 15 5.25

Wartaya 2004 445 3 10 1.8

Shwe Pyi Thar 1996 535.6 240 55 21.2

Yangon industrial Zone 2000 365.2 31 20 4.5

Myaungtagar(Hmawbi) 2006 411 22 100 32.3

Total 4,143.9 3,772 525 168.78

Source: YESB, JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization) “Myanmar Industrial Complex Research Report”


Industrial Complex

14

State/Region Industrial Zone Max Peak Load (MW)

Kachin State Myintkyina 0.1

Kayah State Loikaw 0.5

Kayin State Hpa-an -

Mon State Mawlamying 0.5

Shan(South)State Ayetharyar 3

Mandalay Region

Zone(1) 20

Zone(2) 20

Meikhtila 4.8

Myingyan 1.2

Sagaing Region Ruby Zone 5

Nandawon Zone 6

Monywa Zone 2.5

Magway Yaenanchaung 0.6

Pakokku 1.2

Bago(West)Region Zone(1) 2.5

Zone(2) 0.3

Ayeyarwady Region Pathein 0.25

Myaungmya 1.56

Total 70.01

Year Industry Development

High Case (MW) Low Case (MW)

2012 609 609

2020 1,472 1,472

2030 4,723 3,468

Year Special Economic Zone (MW)

Thilawa Kyaukphyu Mandalay Dawei

2020 180 – 200 100 100 180

2030 400 – 500 180 300 300 - 500


Forecasting Conditions

15

Results of Demand Forecast by region/state

Results of Demand Forecast

Year High Case (MW) Low Case (MW)

Total Non-

industry Industry Total

Non-

industry Industry

2012 1,874 1,265 609 1,874 1,265 609

2020 4,531 3,060 1,472 3,862 2,390 1,472

2030 14,542 9,819 4,723 9,100 5,631 3,468

Region

/State

High Case (MW) Low Case (MW)

FY2012 FY2030 FY2012 FY2030

Kachin 21 185 21 140

Kayah 8 162 8 130

Kayin 13 165 13 135

Chin 3 90 3 60

Mon 45 418 45 338

Rakhine 10 243 10 180

Shan 103 355 103 288

Sagaing 98 349 98 282

Tanintharyi 52 290 52 235

Bago 131 646 131 523

Magwe 106 293 106 238

Mandalay 457 2,731 457 2,203

Ayeyarwaddy 85 406 85 329

Yangon 742 8,209 742 4,019

Total 1,874 14,542 1,874 9,100

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

Ele

ctr

icit

y (

MW

)

High Case Low Case


Balance - Demand & Supply

16

Demand : 14.5GW in High case

Supply : 18.9GW in Dry season available by installed capacity for

Myanmar 23.6GW & total installed capacity 27.0GW


Power Supply Planning

17

Scenarios

SN 1- Domestic Energy

Consumption

SN 2- Least Cost

SN 3- Power Resources Balance

Annual Transition of Power Supply for Peak Demand (MW)

8896, 38%

4758, 20%

7940, 34%

2000, 8%

Hydro Gas Coal Renewable


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion


Power planning

Hydropower strategy


Hydropower Planning

19

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Installed Capacity (MW) 3325 3495 3596 3596 3680 3842 4002 4179 4845 4845 5575 6193 7433 9226 12268 13268 16318 19873

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Ins

tall

ed

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

26%


Strategic Ways

20

1

Sole Investment

by Ministry

2

JV Basic

(Foreign

Investment)

3

BOT Basic

(Local

Entrepreneurs)

www.duanemorris.com 21 21

Progress of Hydropower

Implementing Hydropower Projects (MOEP)

Sr. No. Project Name Installed Capacity

(MW)

1. Upper Paunglaung 140

2. Middle Paunglaung 100

3. Shwe Li (3) 1,050

4. Deedoke 60

5. Upper Yeywa 280

6. Middle Yeywa 700

7. Tha-htay 111

8. Upper Keng Tawng 51

Total 2,492MW


Progress of Hydropower Implementing Hydropower Projects (MOEP)

River - Paunglaung River

Inflow - 260 Mm3

Dam - RCC Dam, 98 m Height

Progress - 99.25 %

Upper Paunglaung HPP (140 MW)



Powerhouse

Headrace

(Tunnel)

Dam and Spillway

Switchyard

River flow direction

Right Abutment

T/L

Intake

Tailrace

Left Abutment

Middle Paunglaung HPP (100 MW)

River - Paunglaung River

Inflow - 7.31 Mm3

Dam - RCC Dam, 94.5 m Height

Progress - Review FSR



Shweli (3) HPP (1,050 MW)

River - Shweli River

Inflow - 14259 Mm3


Progress - 9.61 %



Deedoke HPP (60 MW)

River - Myitnge River

Dam - Gravity Dam, 14 m Height

Progress - MOU Stage (Andritz)



Upper Yeywa HPP (280 MW)


Inflow - 11702 Mm3


Progress - 23.62%



Middle Yeywa HPP (700 MW)


Inflow - 12814 Mm3


Progress - MOU Stage (SN Power)



Tha-htay HPP (111 MW)

River - Tha-htay River

Inflow - 2876Mm3

Dam - Zoned Type Rockfill Dam, 91m Height

Progress - 40.50%



River - Nam Teng River

Inflow - 2302 Mm3

Dam - Zoned Type Rockfill Dam, 57 m Height

Progress - 29.15%

Upper Keng Tawng HPP (51 MW)


Progress of Hydropower

30

Implementing Hydropower Projects (JV/BOT)

No. of Projects Installed Capacity

(MW)

MOU Stage 13 8,712

MOA Stage 13 16,205

JVA Stage 3 6,700

Total 29 31,617

JV Basic Projects

No. of Projects Installed Capacity

(MW)

MOU Stage 2 160

BOT Stage 1 30.4

Total 3 190.4

BOT Basic Projects


Global status

Myanmar status

Conclusion


Power planning

Hydropower strategy


Conclusion

32

appears to have a promising future

can increase the clean energy supply and reduce greenhouse gas emission

moving to public private partnership

focus sustainable and responsible development

key sources of energy for industry players

electricity supply from the national grid support

industries to reduce the production cost

assists economic development & reduction of poverty

Hydropower Strategy in Myanmar:


Thank you!

Oliver Massmann – Partner, General Director

[email protected];

myanmar’s hydropower strategy and its impact on industry players

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