mythbusting: the cohort study and other nz fleet trends€¦ · on road fuel economy (l/100km) for...
TRANSCRIPT
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Mythbusting: The
cohort study and other NZ
fleet trends
October 2014 | Prepared by Iain McGlinchy, Principal Adviser, Technology and Transport Systems
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In 2013 4.4 million kiwis owned:
• ~ 2,600,000 light petrol vehicles
• ~ 520,000 diesel powered light vehicles
► mostly vans, utes light trucks and 4WDs (very few cars)
• ~ 120,000 diesel heavy vehicles (trucks and buses)
• ~ 115,000 motor bikes
• ~ 30,000 mopeds
• Among these are:
• ~ 8,800 hybrid vehicles (~0.25% of the fleet)
• ~ 1,200 CNG powered light vehicles
• ~ 3,800 LPG powered light vehicles
• ~ 200 electric light vehicles (ie cars)
• ~ 80 electric trolley buses
• 1 electric dump truck!
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The NZ vehicle fleet
About 96% (3 million) of our vehicles on road are light vehicles (ie cars, 4WDs,
vans, utes and light trucks)
Light passenger
80.4%
Light commercial
11.8%
MCycle 3.6%
Trucks 3.5% Bus
0.3%
Other 0.5%
Percentage of the fleet (2013)
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The NZ vehicle fleet: where is the fuel used?
► The 4% (~120,000) that are heavy vehicles responsible for ~ 21% of fuel used
► The 12% light commercials use nearly 17% of the fuel
Light passenger
fleet 62.1%
Light commercial
fleet 16.6%
Motorcycle 0.4%
Heavy fleet 20.8%
Percentage fuel used (2013)
► 4
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Changing patterns of fuel choices in light fleet
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Fuel types of light vehicles entering fleet (2000 – 2013)
Used Petrol
New Petrol
Used Diesel
New Diesel - Commercial New Diesel - Passenger
► Diesel vehicles are increasing
► Now 17% of total fleet and about 20% of vehicles entering
► Still mostly commercials and 4WDs, few passenger cars
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Changing emissions standards: New vehicles
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8000
Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14
Mo
nth
ly r
eg
istr
ati
on
s
Month of first registration
NZ new petrol emissions regime
Other
Euro 6
Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 3 or 4
Euro 3
Euro 2
0
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3500
Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14
Mo
nth
ly r
eg
istr
ati
on
s
Month of first registration
NZ new diesel emissions regime
Other
Euro 6
Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 3
Euro 2Euro 4
Euro 5
Two key features:
Still large number of ‘existing model vehicles’ entering the fleet at Euro 4/IV. (Legal until 2016)
But at same time measurable growth of Euro 6! (shown in black)
Euro 4
Euro 5
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Changing emissions standards: Used vehicles
Virtually all used vehicles entering the fleet now meet Japan 2005 or equivalent Euro standards
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
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12000
14000
Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14
Mo
nth
ly r
eg
istr
ati
on
s
Month of first registration
Used petrol emissions regime
Japanese 05 petrol
Japanese 00/02 petrol
Japanese 98 petrol
Japanese pre-1998 petrol
Other
Japan 05
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mar 05 Sep06 Mar 08 Sep09 Mar 11 Sep12 Mar 14M
on
thly
reg
istr
ati
on
s
Month of first registration
Used diesel emissions regime
Japanese 05 diesel
Japanese 02/04 diesel
Japanese 97/99 diesel
Japanese pre-97 diesel
Other
Euro 4
Japan 05
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500
550
600
650
700
750
Ve
hic
les p
er
10
00
po
pu
latio
n
Period
Light fleet ownership per 1000 population
Fleet size
•The size of the New Zealand vehicle fleet has been increasing pretty much since records began
•But since 2007 growth has tapered off and remained almost flat for 6 years until fleet size grew again in 2013 (and 2014)
•NZ’s population has grown since 2000s, so per capita values for ownership (and travel) fell until 2013
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Vehicle fleet and population (1988 – 2013)
Total fleet Population
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
Ve
hic
les
Vehicle Fleet (2004 - 2013) Light passenger Light commercial Trucks Bus
2007 2012
► 8
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Vehicle fleet travel
•Travel has remained remarkably constant, despite economic ups and downs •Because numbers of vehicles increased it means per vehicle travel has fallen pretty consistently for light vehicles over last decade
20
25
30
35
40
Bill
ion
Ve
hic
le k
m
Period
Total Fleet Travel
Light travel Heavy travel
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
An
nu
al km
pe
r ve
hic
le
Average annual travel per light vehicle
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Why did the fleet grow in 2013?
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120
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30000
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-00
Jul-
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-14
Exch
ange
Rat
e (Y
en t
o N
Z$)
Nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Monthly vehicle registrations of all light vehicles vs the exchange rate Jan 2000 - Jun 2014
Registrations of used light vehicles All light vehicles Exchange rate
As the economy has recovered, so too has the car market!
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VEHICLE AGE
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Average age of vehicles in our fleet has been steadily
rising since around 2000
BUT The fleet has not got older in 2014 for first time since 2000
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Avera
ge a
ge (
years
) Light fleet average age 2000 – 2013 and first three quarters of
2014
Quarterly
data
Annual
data
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0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
Ve
hic
les
Year of manufacture
Light fleet vehicle year of manufacture Dec 2013
Age distribution of NZ light vehicle fleet (Dec 2013)
1996
► 13
► We have a completely disproportionate number of vehicles built 1995 – 1997
► These were largely imported in the early 2000s
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It is the bulge of Japanese used vehicles that is getting
older
Average age of NZ New is staying pretty constant while Japanese-used rising steadily
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Light fleet average age by new/used
Light NZ new Light Used Imports
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What will happen to fleet age in coming years?
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Entry and exit of light vehicles Entry Exit
En
tere
d
Exite
d
► The Ministry has spent a lot of time
trying to model the aging of the vehicle
fleet.
► We found that the rates of scrappage
are more important than imports, but
are virtually impossible to predict
accurately
► Although imports were up in 2013 over
previous years, 2013 had the lowest
level of vehicle scrappage since 2002!
► 2014 data so far shows scrapping has
not increased so fleet likely to continue
to grow
►Short answer is we don’t know what will happen to vehicle age!
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SO, WHO OWNS ALL THESE OLD
VEHICLES?
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The cohort study
► In 2014 Ministry of Transport commissioned Emission Impossible to analyse who
owned these old vehicles and what, if anything, we could determine about their social
characteristics
► The study used the 2012 census data and data from the Motor Vehicle Register
► Study was carefully monitored to ensure privacy of all individuals
► Study looked at a range of variables such as average income of the census area unit
that vehicles were registered to, the age of owners, fuel type, and many other
variables that we thought might affect ownership
► The study built on an earlier, smaller study that had looked at Auckland and we
wanted to broaden it out to look at if there were regional differences
Study is not yet published.
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Vehicle ownership is remarkably egalitarian
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
Social Deprivation Index
Dunedin
1990 1996 2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
Social Deprivation Index
Auckland 1990 1996 2005
Increasing wealth
Model year of vehicles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
Social Deprivation Index
Rotorua
1990 1996 2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
Social Deprivation Index
Whangarei
1990 1996 2005
► There are no obvious patterns for poorer people to own older vehicles
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SO, DOES VEHICLE AGE MATTER
AND HOW DOES IT RELATE TO
FUEL USE?
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Fuel use vs fleet size
• There is very little evidence that age
and fuel economy are linked
• Since 1988 (when reliable data starts
for vehicle fleet) there has been a
very close relationship between fuel
use and size of fleet (R2 = 0.94)
• Appears other variables, like state of
economy, (or changes to fleet age)
are not strongly affecting fuel use
Fuel data from “All Domestic Transport” at http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/data/oil
► 20
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Tota
l nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Fue
l use
(P
J)
Vehicle fleet and population
Land Transport Fuel use (from MED) Total fleet
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On average, older vehicles travel less
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Dis
tan
ce t
rave
lled
per
ye
ar (
km)
Age of vehicle (years)
Average distance travelled per year by vehicle of given age (2000 - 2013)
•New vehicles travel half their total lifetime km in their first 5-6 years! •If you replace an older vehicle with a younger vehicle, on average it will travel further
Average age of scrapping
Average age of fleet
Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet
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Engine sizes of older vehicles are usually smaller
1400
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2200
2400
2600
2800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Engi
ne
siz
e (
CC
)
Age of vehicle (in years)
Average engine size of vehicles of given age in the NZ light fleet
2005
2012
Average age of scrapping
Average age of fleet
Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet
On average, if you replace a vehicle with a newer model the replacement will have a larger engine Impact of decline in large petrol engined vehicles, but increase in diesel 4WD
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Quick conclusion
►This means, that on average, if we had a younger fleet (as a result of
actively getting rid of our existing older vehicles) the resulting fleet would
probably have a larger engine size and travel further than our current
fleet!
►Suggests that actively intervening to create a younger fleet to reduce
CO2 emissions, would probably not work
►Although if fleet size shrinks as older used vehicles are scrapped and
NOT replaced then fuel use may fall
►Separate study by MOT (not published) shows that any increased travel
by newer vehicles replacing older vehicles would have a net negative
effect on safety due to increased exposure.
► 23
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BUT HAVEN’T VEHICLES GOT
MORE EFFICIENT OVER TIME?
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Efficiency vs weight
800
900
1000
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1200
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1500
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0
5
10
15
20
25
wei
ght
in k
g
Litr
es/1
00
km
Fuel economy and weight of selected Holden Commodore models 1980 - 2002
City highway Weight (kg)
Data provided by Australian govt official (pers com). Checked against published figures where
possible.
1.2l 1.8l
1.2l 1.8l
Much of the benefit of
increasing technical efficiency
has been traded off against
weight and increased power
► 25
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THE REAL WORLD IS A SPECIAL
CASE!
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On-road fuel use in New Zealand
No relationship between aging of the fleet and changes in on road fuel economy Also, we see no strong link between modelled figures and in-service figures
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
l/1
00
km
Year
On road fuel economy (l/100km) for NZ petrol vehicles compared with recorded fuel economy
NZ - on-road fuel economy NZ-average certified efficiency all light vehicles entering
•Between 2001 and 2013 the average age of light fleet increased from 11. 6 years to 13.53 years (1.9 years) • On road fuel economy effectively stayed the same • From 2005 certified efficiency of petrol vehicles entering the NZ fleet improved from 9.03 l/100km to 7.82 l/100km
► 27
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There has been a growing divergence between modelled
fuel economy and real world fuel use in Japan as well
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
l/1
00
km
Year
Fuel economy (l/100km) for Japanese passenger petrol vehicles
Japan - Average efficiency based on standard test ENTERING
Japan - Average efficiency based on standard test IN USE
Japan - Average efficiency - ACTUAL
Source: http://www.jama-english.jp/publications/sustainable_mobility_2012.pdf
•~65% improvement in rated fuel consumption for vehicles entering •But only ~10% change in real world fuel consumption •Vehicle fleet about half age of NZ, but same on-road fuel use! •Over this time the Japanese fleet average age also increased from 4.88 in 1995 to 8.07 in 2013 (~3 years)
No relationship between aging of the fleet and fuel use. Again, we see divergence between modelled figures and in-service figures
► 28
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Similar divergence between rated fuel consumption and real
seen world in independent European testing
Source: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LabToRoad_20130527.pdf
• European research also shows that steady divergence between fuel economy measured by manufacturers compared with results from real world driving
• Strong suggestion from this and Japanese data that manufacturers build cars to pass the test, not for real world
• This may partly explain why we are not seeing expected changes in the fuel economy in the real world
• Also, other variables, like congestion may also have gotten worse over this time
► 29
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Harmful NOx emissions are also not falling
Source: TNO 2013 R11891 Investigations and real world emission performance of Euro 6 light-duty vehicles
► Vehicles have been built to
comply with the drive cycle
► Unfortunately no one drives
like the drive cycles
► European on-road trials are showing Euro 5 NOx may actually be worse than Euro 4
► Euro 6 is possibly only slightly better for urban and worse for motorway than Euro 5
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Fortunately, it’s not all bad news
The same 2014 report from TNO concluded:
Particulate emissions and CO and HC emissions of Euro 5 diesel vehicles are under
control under real world conditions as a result of the applied DPF (diesel particulate
filter) and oxidation catalyst
BUT, and it is a big but, this assumes that the technology is maintained
Source: TNO 2013 R11891 Investigations and real world emission performance of Euro 6 light-duty vehicles
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Harmful emissions are also not falling
The European Commission has also effectively said the same thing:
► Successive generations of Euro standards and fuel quality standards have been
agreed so as to control vehicle emissions in the EU. The required reductions have
been delivered, with one exception: NOx emissions from light-duty diesel engines.
Real-world NOx emissions from Euro 5 cars type-approved since 2009 now exceed
those of Euro 1 cars type-approved in 1992, and are in the region of five times the
limit value.
While it is too soon to say for sure, it does look like we will have a Euro 6 B or
Euro 7, with a drive cycle that more accurately reflects the real world.
Source: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/;ELX_SESSIONID=9JB1JFTJVwPpxGm7BGzJLBXV1hT2rPGXn8BvtnVgCg21Hvxn98hp!1125658998?uri=CELEX:52013DC0918
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Contact
Iain McGlinchy
Principal Adviser
Technology and Transport Systems
Ministry of Transport
(04) 439 9295
www.transport.govt.nz
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