n. barry lyons on the toronto condo market for 2013

Industry at a Crossroads?

Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell

February 22nd, 2013

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Toronto Skyline - 2004

Future Toronto Skyline

Future Downtown Toronto Core

Source: All pictures from Urban Toronto, courtesy of Scott Dickson


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC


51% 43% 45% 50%

48%

51% 44% 42%

49%

56% 48%

49% 57%

55% 50%

52%

49% 56%

58%

51%

44%

52%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

# U

nit

s High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales

Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2013F

Resales

New Sales

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Ave

rage

Sal

e P

rice

# U

nit

Sal

es

Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012

New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

905 416

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416 Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



Studio 5%

1 Bedroom 24%

1 Bedroom + Den 34%

2 Bedroom 23%

2 Bedroom + Den 9%

3 Bedroom & Up 2%

Penthouse 2%

Other 1%

New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2006

Studio 3%

1 Bedroom 19%

1 Bedroom + Den 26% 2 Bedroom

30%

2 Bedroom + Den 16%

3 Bedroom & Up 2%

Penthouse 3% Other

1%

New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2012


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000Ja

n-0

6

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

# o

f A

ctiv

e H

igh

-Ris

e S

ite

Un

sold

Inve

nto

ry (

# o

f U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012

High Rise Inventory

High Rise Site Count

8,534 3,906

9,832 12,279

10,066 15,046

14,361 15,407

12,957 11,259

16,304 14,223

10,575 19,197

47,581 17,772

7,118 1,910

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Total Units

New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2017F


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings

Source: Colliers International

PATH System South of Front Street – at 1 York (Menkes and HOOPP Realty Inc.)

Source: Urban Toronto


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

New Union Pearson (Airport) Express – Planned Station at Union

Source: Union Pearson Express a division of Metrolinx

Dundas West – Bloor Mobility Hub

Source: Metrolinx


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown

Source: Metrolinx

Avenues Projects – Neighbourhood Oriented


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

The Rushton – St. Clair Avenue West

Source: Site Marketing Materials

Carmelina Condominiums – Danforth Avenue

Source: Site Marketing Materials

2013 – The Year of Incentives


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

3rd deal - Receive $3,500 bonus*

5th deal - Receive an additional $2,000 for a total of $5,500 bonus*

7th deal - Receive an additional $2,500

for a total of $8,000 bonus* 10th deal - Receive an additional

$4,000 for a total of $12,000 bonus*

15th deal -Receive an additional $6,000

for a total of $18,000 bonus* (Each deal must firm up to qualify)

Downtown East Gathering Momentum


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Canary District - Pan Am Athlete’s Village, Under Construction

Our Questions For The Condo Network 1) Is this a normal market slowdown or something else?

2) What are the current buyer attitudes?

3) Is there any interest in upgrading into newer condominiums?

4) Where are the young families going?

5) Are the empty nesters back?

6) Do you think the investors will be back in large numbers?

7) Do you see a glut of small units coming to the market?

8) If you had the choice, where would you locate a new condominium apartment project and what would it contain?

9) Do you see lower GTA immigration and a slowing Canadian economy affecting the market?

10) Are there any other questions we should be asking ourselves?

n. barry lyons on the toronto condo market for 2013

Real Estate