naclim ct1-3 meeting, at mpi, 19-20/03/2014
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NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014. On the observed connection between Arctic sea-ice and Eurasian snow in relation to the winter NAO. J. García-Serrano, G. Gastineau, C. Frankignoul LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France. NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
J. García-Serrano, G. Gastineau, C. Frankignoul
LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France
On the observed connection between Arctic sea-ice and Eurasian snow in relation to the winter NAO
Negative winter NAO is preceded (in October) by sea-ice reduction in the Barents-Kara Seas (a), positive snow anomalies over northern Eurasia (b), anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Siberian coast (c) – what is the connection between them?
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
Sea-ice reduction in the Barents-Kara Seas is associated with positive temperature (T950) anomalies over the eastern Arctic (b), a region dominated by below-zero climatological conditions (a); the anomalous advection of climatological T950 (c)
appears to contribute mostly to the land-cooling associated with the snow anomalies
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
Sea-ice reduction in the Barents-Kara Seas is associated with positive humidity (q950) anomalies over the eastern Arctic (b), a region climatologically dominated by low water vapour (a); the anomalous advection of climatological q950 (c) appears to contribute
mostly to the humidity sink associated with the anomalous snowfall
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
J. García-Serrano, C. Frankignoul
LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France
V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-ReyesIC3, Barcelona, Spain + CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France
Added-value in the NAO skill from initializing sea-ice
(NACLIM / SPECS)
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
ERA-int (black) vs ensemble-mean (INIT-blue, CLIM-green): there is an increase in the NAO skill. the correlation difference is not statistically significant, but note that the CLIM skill does not exceed the 95% confidence level, whilst the INIT skill does. INIT (sea-ice variability) seems to play a role in the winter 2009/10 (the strongest negative phase on record).
Hilmer and Jung (2000, GRL)
NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014
has Arctic sea-ice played a role in the recent, eastward shift of the NAO pattern?
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299NACLIM www.naclim.eu