naea 06-14
TRANSCRIPT
KCM Divided into Three Sections
“Unless you are experienced at selling homes, it usually makes financial sense to get professional help - homes sold by
agents typically sell at a higher price and spend less time on the market.”
FannieMae
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 5/2014
PENDING Home Sales
50.6 51.2 50 50.647.8
27.7
19.3
26.2
43.946.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
July 2013 August2013
September2013
October2013
November2013
December2013
January2014
February2014
March2014
April 2014
realtor.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
NEW HOMEConstruction
~1M
~500K
1.2M
2000-2007 2008-Today 2015-2025 Projected
Annual Household Formations
Freddie Mac
realtor.org 5/2014 *projected
Type of Home Buyers Prefer
Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”
Reasons Buyers Prefer a
NEW HOME
Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”
Reasons Buyers Prefer an
EXISTING HOME
Properties that are no longer desirable because their characteristics do not match what buyers are looking for in a home.
•Homes that are located in once, but no longer, popular locations
•Homes that are lacking the amenities sought by today’s buyers
HOUSING OBSOLESCENCE
CoreLogic
PRICES
Median Home
PRICE
realtor.org 5/2014 *projected
FHFA 2014 1Q
Price Changes by Region (year-over-year)
Price Changes by State (year-over-year)
FHFA 2014 1Q
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2014
S&P Case Shiller 5/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
CaseShiller
realtor.com 5/2014
Percentage Change
HOUSING INVENTORY
Home Price Expectation
SurveyA nationwide panel of over one hundred
economists, real estate experts and
investment & market strategists.
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
Average Annual % APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
RecoveryTo Date
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.5%
30.8%
19.5%
9.4%Pre-BubbleTrend
Bulls All Projections
Bears
Freddie Mac 6/2014
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – June 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
October 2013
Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q
Fannie Mae 4.7%
Freddie Mac 5.0%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2%
National Assoc of Realtors 5.4%5/2014
RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – May 2014
Yahhoo Case Shiller
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 5/2014
NAR 5/2014
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2014
Percentage of Distressed
Property Sales
35%
15%
18%
NAR 5/2014
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 5/2014
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
5 Fannie Mae Quote http://knowyouroptions.com/news/selling-your-home?sf2824381=1
6, 7, 20, 31, 32, 33, 34
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels, Months Inventory, % Distressed Properties
http://www.realtor.org/
8 Foot Traffichttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/30026-trulias-traffic-spikes-in-april http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/
10 Annual Household Formations http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf
11, 17 Housing Starts & Sales, Median Home Price, http://www.realtor.org/presentations/presentation-housing-market-and-economic-outlook#sf2995410
12,13,14Type of Home Buyers Prefer, Reasons for New Home, Reasons for Existing Home
http://info.trulia.com/new-vs-existing-homes-survey-may-2014
15 Housing Obsolescence http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/mark-fleming/2014/04/the-rise-of-housing-obsolescence-and-shadow-demand.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_140407_O8BaD&elq=04394db44d5e46ac863e1df8b6911042#.U4pVjmcU-cw
18, 19Price Changes by Region, Price Changes by State
http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Rises-for-Eleventh-Consecutive-Quarter.aspx
21 Case Shiller Year-over-Year Price Changes http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf
22 Percentage Change Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.com/news/april-housing-report-reveals-healthier-national-market/
23-26Home Price Expectation Survey, Annual Appreciation, Projected Mean % Appreciation, Cumulative House Appreciation
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2014_HPE_Survey.php
28 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
29 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052114.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88271_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-05-29/forecast-06-2014-us-economic-outlook-05-29-2014.pdf
30 Return on Investmenthttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://finance.yahoo.com/
35 S&P Case-Shiller HPIhttp://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf
40 Todd Duncan Quote http://www.toddduncan.com/blog/killing-the-sale-six-signs-that-youre-a-sales-poser
43 Ed Catmull Quote Creativity, Inc: Overcoming the Unseen Forces That Stand in the Way of True Inspiration
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
"Salespeople who suffer from call reluctance don’t believe in what they are selling or don’t believe in their ability to sell."
Todd Duncan
Craft is what we are expected to do;
art is the unexpected use of our craft.
Ed CatmullPresident of Walt Disney Animation Studios