nafta powertrain outlook - ihs markit · 2013-04-22 · nafta powertrain outlook efficiency driving...

NAFTA Powertrain Outlook Efficiency Driving New Engine and Transmission

Production Opportunities

David Petrovski

Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting

April 17, 2013

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Agenda

• Drivers for Change

• Efficiency Opportunities

• Production Opportunities

• Summary

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Evolutionary Change

• Automotive technology development is an evolutionary process,

influenced by:

ENERGY ECONOMICS LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY CONSUMER DESIRE/RESPONSE INDUSTRY CAPABILITY

An integrated approach is key – all stakeholder need to act

together to reduce CO2 emissions (infrastructure, public

authorities, consumers, OEMs( as this is the most cost-

efficient way of achieving improvement –Ford


Global Convergence Drives Scale

4

LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY

54.5 MPG

35.5 MPG

Source:


Relatively “Cheap” fuel in comparison…

5

ENERGY ECONOMICS


Forecasted Prices Remain Relatively Low

6

Source: IHS CERA – Feb 2013

ENERGY ECONOMICS

~$4/gal


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

197

5

197

7

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Ma

rke

t Sh

are

of D

ies

els

an

d H

yb

rids

%

Dis

po

sa

ble

In

co

me

Sp

en

d o

n F

uel

% of Disposable Income Spend on Fuel vs. High Fuel Efficient Vehicles

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov

EPA: Fuel Economy Trends

CONSUMER RESPONSE

Will Consumers Accept higher Cost for Efficiency?

• As spending levels increased in recent years, consumers elect to purchase high fuel efficient options

such as hybrids and diesels)

• Technology penetration of diesels and hybrids begins to drop as gasoline prices drop


Consumer demands continued…

8

“Because future fuel savings are inherently uncertain, consumers will discount them heavily relative to certain initial costs.” (How Consumers Value Fuel Economy: A Literature Review, Oakridge National Lab for EPA, March 24, 2010)

“There are large differences, even among comprehensive, high quality studies, in estimates of the incremental retail price equivalent of technology that achieves major reductions in vehicle fuel consumption.” (National Petroleum Council, Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future, August 1, 2012)

“Consumers want fuel efficiency … if it is free. 95% of customers are pragmatic, 5% are green” (Mike Jackson, CEO, Auto Nation, October 7, 2012)

CONSUMER RESPONSE


Unemployment

rate

Technology

development

Warranty cost and

recall liability Technology

cost

Technology

performance

Midterm review

uncertainty

Fuel price

uncertainty

Consumer

finance

Consumer

demand

Competitive

risk

California

ZEV Mandate

Net Upstream

CO2

Emissions

Industry must weight different risks while trying to comply with new standards

Safety

Competing Priorities?

INDUSTRY CAPABILITIES


Agenda




• Summary


Vehicle Energy Loss Review…


Tremendous Opportunities Exist for Efficiency

Improvements…

12

68%

9%

23%


Transmission Only Improvement…

13

Ve

hic

le E

ne

rgy

Loss

Standby Idle

Accessories

ICE

Transmission & D/L

Aero

Rolling Resistance

Braking

68%

6%

8%

5%

4%

6%

3%

Pump/Hydraulics

Torque Converter

Drag losses

Seals, bearings, gears

Differential

Variable displ pumps

Low Leak Solenoids

Viscous churning losses

New Fluids

Active Warm-up

Cooling

NOTE: Not mean to be an exhaustive list


Future Fuel Economy Improvement Devices

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Engine

Transmission

Electrification

Total Cost for MY2017

(Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost)

Note)

NHTSA AppendixF-

Draft_Joint_Technical_Support_Document

(2011Nov) and created by IHS

Fuel Economy Improve Ratio and its

cost are basically based on Large Car.

When no data for Large Car, using other

vehicle data. Engine devices are based

on the effect for L4 engine.

US Fuel Economy Improving Device and Cost-1 (MY2017)

P2

Hybrid

Power-split

Hybrid

2-mode

Hybrid

IMA

Hybrid

Diesel

With SCR

V6→L4

Downsizing

Fu

el E

co

no

my Im

pro

ve

Ra

tio

(%

)


Technology Cost vs. Benefit

0

5

10

15

20

25

Engine

Transmission

Electrification

Total Cost for MY2017

(Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost)

US Fuel Economy Improving Technology and Cost--2 (MY2017)

V6→L4

Downsizing

24bar

With Cooled EGR

24bar

18bar

Stop/Start

(Belt)

Stop/Start

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Aggressive

Shift Logic

4AT→

6DCT(Dry)

High

Efficiency

Gearbox

6AT→8AT

5MT

→6MT

Early Torque

Converter

Lockup

FR1

ICP DVVL SGDI

DEAC

CVVL FR2

DCP

27bar

With Cooled EGR

Fu

el E

co

no

my Im

pro

ve

Ra

tio

(%

)


Agenda




• Summary


Powertrain Production Outlook

Engine Output by Country

Mexico

United States

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mil

lio

ns

Mexico

United States

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mil

lio

ns

Transmission Output by Country

% S

hare

Me

xic

o

% S

hare

Me

xic

o


Engine Production Outlook

Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012

11.7

15.3

0.5 0.1 0.5 0.8

0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2

-0.05

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2020

Mill

ion

s

GM 14%

Fiat 12%

Honda 23%

Toyota 19%

R/N 9%

Hyundai 12%

Mazda 6%

Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20

Others


Transmission Production Outlook

11.8

15.0

0.4 0.6

0.4

0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6

-0.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2020

Mill

ion

s

GM 12%

Ford 18%

Fiat 11% Jatco

25%

Hyundai 7%

ZF 17%

Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20

Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012

Others


MFG PLATFORM SOP PEAK

VOLUME COMMENTS

Fiat SGE TBD TBD Fire replacement?

Hurricane 2015-16 ~500k New 2.0L 4-cylinder turbo engine Pentastar 2015 ~800k Upgrade program for 3.2L/3.6L Duratec HE 2015 ~400k Localize from Valencia,Spain to Cleveland,Ohio

Dragon 2016 TBD Potential 2.4M global, no N.A. production, but could affect SIGMA and DURATEC HE

Nano 2014 ~300k All new small V6 turbo DI, 2.7L/2.9L

SGE 2014 ~700k Global engine program, 2.7M global, 1.0L L3-1.5L L4

HFV6 2016 ~800k Upgrade program for 3.0L/3.6L

New-L (AP2) 2014 ~350k Honda AP3 program cancelled, 1.5L AP2 could benefit

Mazda-Small 2014 ~150k Localized prod. of 1.5L/2.0L in Salamanca,MEX

New 4-cyl 2016 ~250k New 2.0L engine for Mexico, likely turbo + DI

AR 2015-16 ~200k New Turbo + DI version of AR platform, 2.0L GR 2015 ~500k 3.5L V6 Upgrade program adds DI

EA888 2012 ~500k+ 1.8L & 2.0L Turbo, Launched in Silao, expect vol inc.

20

North American Engine Opportunities…

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/original/GM_logo_flat.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/news/prodigious_gm_loss_takes_effect_as_mccann_detroit_faces_similar_woes_142097.asp&usg=__eg8AwxkkASzroBTHoWISWIHQ5M0=&h=400&w=400&sz=12&hl=en&start=13&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=xdIJqtIRV4xI5M:&tbnh=124&tbnw=124&prev=/images?q=gm+logo&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLL_enUS342US343&sa=N&um=1


Detroit 3 Transmission Opportunities…

MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK VOLUME

FWD 9HP28/48 A9 2013 ~1,6M

RWD 8HP 45 A8 now ~450k

FWD

6F15 A6 TBD ~150k

9F-MID A9 2017 ~1.0M

9F50/55 A9 TBD ~300k

HF35 EVT now ~150k

RWD 10R60/80 A10 2016 ~900k

FWD

GF9 A9 2016 ~1.2M

9T70/75 A9 TBD ~500k

X39F EVT 2015 ~125k

X44F DCT7 2015 ~250k

RWD 8L45/90 A8 2014 ~550k

10L45/90 A10 ~2016/7 ~800k

Localization potential if volumes rise

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/original/GM_logo_flat.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/news/prodigious_gm_loss_takes_effect_as_mccann_detroit_faces_similar_woes_142097.asp&usg=__eg8AwxkkASzroBTHoWISWIHQ5M0=&h=400&w=400&sz=12&hl=en&start=13&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=xdIJqtIRV4xI5M:&tbnh=124&tbnw=124&prev=/images?q=gm+logo&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLL_enUS342US343&sa=N&um=1


Transmission Opportunities…

MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK VOLUME

FWD

XZXA A10 2016 ~400k

LL-CVT CVT now ~500k

TC-DCT DCT8 ~2016 ~150k

SM-CVT 2nd CVT ~2014 ~500k

FWD

A6GF1 A6 ~2015 ~300k

A8LF2 A8 ~2016 ~350k

A8MF1/2 A8 ~2016 ~400k

RWD 10AT A10 TBD TBD

FWD JF015E CVT ~2015 ~350k

JF016E/17E CVT ~2017 ~1.0M

RWD W9A400/700 A9 2016 ~200k

FWD

New K311 CVT TBD ~375k

G001 A8 ~2015 ~1.0M

RWD TL-80SN A8 TBD ~100K



Transmission Opportunities…

MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK

FWD FW6A A6 TBD ~200k

FWD DQ200? DQ250? DCT7 TBD TBD

FWD 9HP48 (EP2) A9 ~2013/14 ~800k

RWD 8HP 70 A8 now ~400k



Agenda




• Summary


Summary

• Energy security (fuel efficiency) and environmental (clean air) legislation

provide unprecedented drivers for change

• Entire vehicle system optimization needs to be the focus to meet

increasing stringent fuel economy and emissions standards

• Light weighting has a compounding effect

• The “sweet spot:” Optimal powertrains will balance engine and transmission flexibility

• Various degrees of hybridization from start-stop through battery electric vehicles

• Modularity; Parts integration and system cost reductions

• Consistent growth in North America vehicle production predicated on

strong utilization, co-location of output to offset risk and exports

• Overall engine and transmission production volumes to return to robust levels driven

by localization

• Numerous new opportunities exist as technology proliferates the engine and

transmission portfolio

25

Thank You for Your Participation!

David Petrovski

Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting

IHS Automotive

[email protected]

248-465-2828

mailto:[email protected]

nafta powertrain outlook - ihs markit · 2013-04-22 · nafta powertrain outlook efficiency driving...

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