Nairobi 25 August 2014

Concept Note Kenya Country Programme (2015-20)

Danish Embassy Nairobi, presentation to

Danida Programme Committee

15 September 2014

Explanatory note: This concept note for the Kenya Country Programme 2015-2020 should be seen in connection with the Country Policy Paper Denmark-Kenya 2014-2018 that after public hearing was presented as a synopsis to the Programme Committee in October 2013 and was discussed in the Danish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee on 30 January 2014. The full Country Policy Paper is expected to be finally approved by September 2014. The Policy Paper outlines the entire Danish engagement with Kenya. It has three strategic focus areas: 1) Implementing the Constitution towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya; 2) Inclusive green growth and employment, and 3) Regional cooperation and stability. The engagements and instruments foreseen in the Policy Paper are more than development cooperation, it is also commercial cooperation, economic diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, political dialogue, military cooperation and non DAC stability cooperation. The development engagement foreseen in the Policy Paper is also more than the bilateral Country Programme. The three thematic programmes in the bilateral Country Programme will therefore primarily contribute to the two first strategic focus area of the Policy Paper – they will also contribute, but in a limited way to the third focus area of regional cooperation and stability. That focus area will primarily be supported through other programmes i.e. the regional East Africa Community programme on economic cooperation and through the Horn of Africa regional stability programme as-well-as through military cooperation. Humanitarian assistance is also contributing to this focus area. It should also be mentioned that Kenya is receiving assistance from most of Danida’s financial instruments for example Danida’s business instruments and the Fast Start Climate Initiative – such additional funding will be formulated and implemented in close coordination with the country programme. This concept note uses the Theory of Change model to explain how the Country Programme will contribute to change. The analysis is to the extent possible incorporated in the standard format for preparing concepts notes and has in addition the related diagrams enclosed as annex 8.1

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1

2. Conclusions from preparatory analysis .......................................................................... 1

3. Strategic considerations and justification of country programme ....................... 3

4. Thematic programme objectives and summaries....................................................... 5

4.1 Governance ........................................................................................................................................ 6 4.2 Green growth and employment ................................................................................................ 7 4.3 Health ................................................................................................................................................... 8

5. Preliminary results framework and monitoring mechanisms ............................... 9

6. Preliminary assessment of risk ......................................................................................... 9

7. Indicative budget ................................................................................................................. 10

8.1 Theory of Change for Kenya Country Programme ............................................................ 1 8.2 Process Action Plan for Kenya Country Programme ....................................................... 1 8.3 Assessment according to the five budget support principles ...................................... 4 8.4 Human Rights Based Approach & Gender Equality Screening Note ...................... 12 8.5 Climate change and green growth screening note ......................................................... 24 8.6 Preliminary results framework ............................................................................................. 29 8.7 Risk management matrix .......................................................................................................... 35

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1. Introduction Three questions are proposed to guide Programme Committee discussions:

1. The country programme uses a Theory of Change whereby implementation

of the constitution through devolution (from central government to 47 counties established in June 2013) along with a vibrant civil society and private sector are supported as key drivers of democracy, inclusive green growth and poverty reduction – does the Programme Committee agree with this overall strategic approach?

2. Kenya’s devolution process comes at a time with considerable attention to

cases of corruption in public administration but also with encouraging signs of improvements in public management standards - has the programme struck the right balance between anti-corruption through civil society and Kenya National Audit Office and promoting public sector accountability, including capacity building at county level through on-budget support for devolved health delivery services?

3. Deteriorating security, including increased number of terror attacks as-

well-as conflicts related to land and natural resources, motivates inclusion of conflict-mitigation measures across the country programme. Does refraining from classical security sector reform and focussing instead on inclusive state building, natural resource management, youth employment and anti-radicalisation constitute an appropriate response to the serious security situation?

The Country Programme outlined by this Concept Note is designed to support the three strategic focus areas of the Denmark – Kenya Policy Paper (2014-18):

Implementing the Constitution towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya Inclusive green growth and employment Regional cooperation and stability (mainly through stability instrument)

The overall vision for the partnership is to support the Government and people of Kenya in implementing their Vision 2030 to create ‘a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030’. Development cooperation outlined by this note is one instrument in pursuit of these objectives complemented by humanitarian aid, policy dialogue, trade and regional security and stability cooperation. Additional instruments include support for inclusive green growth and decent jobs through Danida Business Partnership projects and framework agreements with Danish trade unions with a presence in East Africa and a dedicated programme on arts, culture and creative industries by the Danish Centre for Culture and Development (CKU).

2. Conclusions from preparatory analysis In the context of significant growth rates and ambitions to reach middle-income status by 2030, it is relevant to ask how - after fifty years of cooperation between

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Denmark and Kenya – development aid should be approached in order to make development results and poverty reduction a reality during the next five years? Preparations for the Kenya Country Programme (2015-20) commenced with stakeholder consultation in Nairobi in May 2013 on preparation of policy paper. It was decided to let design of the new country programme be informed by a combination of lessons learnt from current development programmes and findings of independent research on priority issues relating to (i) Inequality and related challenges of development, (ii) Need to address conflict and fragility, and (iii) Gender equality and diversity. Inequality and poverty remain critical in Kenya. Private sector investments and declining interest rates have allowed for economic growth rates of 4.7% in 2013 and a rise in GDP per capita of USD 962 in 2012 compared to USD 523 in 2005. However, growth is below potential and has not solved poverty problems among others rooted in inequality. Conclusions of a study commissioned as part of the country programming process were published by Society for International Development and kenya Mational Bureay of Statistics in a report entitled Exploring Kenya’s inequality: pulling apart or pooling together? (2013). The report document growing levels of inequality in the context of demographic change and geography. Kenya’s young population of 43 million is expected to reach 80 million in 2050. Youth unemployment rates estimated at 40% constitute a lost opportunity as well as a potential driver of crime, conflict, ethnic and religious radicalisation – in turn justifying vocational training and decent jobs for young Kenyans as a new priority for Danida support. Poverty rates remain high wit 40-45 per cent of the population assumed to be living below the poverty line of 1,25 USD a day. Whilst upwards of 80% of the population in north Kenya and the southern part of the Coastal Region live under the poverty line, the same is true for about 20% in central Kenya and most urban areas. The health status in poor parts of Kenya also goes along way in explaining that maternal mortality in Kenya remains among the highest in Africa at 488 deaths per 100,000 live births. In the poorest counties in the North and East of Kenya these indicators are more than twice as bad. Programming implications include a balance between a national country wide approach and the need for targeted efforts for vulnerable groups. Reaching the most vulnerable presents challenges of weak administrative capacity and security risks that correlates with the poorest and most marginalised counties thus limiting normal monitoring visits. In order to retain focus on inequality, the principal author of the mentioned inequality study has been contracted to assist with country programme assessment during programme formulation. Conflict and fragility constitute critical challenges and have been the topic of preparatory analysis summarised by governance partner Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies in the report Securing the Counties – Options for Security after Devolution

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in Kenya (2014). Kenya remains politically divided along ethnic lines and tensions from national to village level risk escalating to national instability, as seen in the post-election violence in December 2007 and January 2008. High levels of crime and increasing threats of terrorism negatively affects quality of life and constitutes a serious human rights problem and risk making it difficult to attract investment and get foreign businesses to engage long-term in Kenya. Conflict-mitigation is addressed by the regional cooperation and stability programme but goes well beyond that as an underlying rationale behind equal access to health services, support for natural resource management, land tenure and access rights and creation of vocational job opportunities for young people. In addition to mainstreaming of conflict-sensitive programming, engagements in areas of soft security such as for example the current support to anti-radicalisation will be given even higher priority and may be expanded. Gender equality provisions of the new Constitution are amongst the most advanced by international standard and represent a huge normative leap forward for Kenya. However, gender inequalities persist and the new country programme aims to address this gap through poverty-oriented development engagements in governance. Examples include measures to promote participation of women in national and county levels of governance, health programme support for maternal health and reduced prevalence of violence against women. Also green growth support for gender-balanced value chains and gender-sensitive interventions are expected by programme partners. Preparatory analysis to inform gender-sensitive programming (as recommended by the Programme Committee in October 2013) is in progress as a joint exercise with Finland, Sweden and EU – and Denmark in lead as contribution to shared analysis for EU joint programming. The aim is to produce an action plan for accelerated gender equality in country programming, contributing to equal rights of men and women, growth and job creation in line with the results-orientation of the new Danida Strategic framework on gender equality, rights and diversity (2014).

3. Strategic considerations and justification of country programme Kenya is experiencing significant growth rates that make the ambitious goals of the national development Vision 2030 realistic to achieve, even if growth remains below its full potential and falls slightly behind those of neighbouring countries. However, the striking picture of ‘high growth but not for all’ means that Kenya in order to address poverty and sustainability issues still needs to accelerate private sector-led growth and render it more green and inclusive by addressing key challenges of poverty, inequality, instability and gender equality and environmental degradation.

The country programme is aligned to Vision 2030, Kenya’s national long-term development blue-print to create a globally competitive and prosperous middle-income nation with a high quality of life in a clean and secure environment over the next fifteen years. The vision is anchored on three key pillars of economic, social and political governance and the proposed Kenya country programme is

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relevant to all three pillars. Kenya’s new constitution is taking an ambitious rights based approach that needs support to be implemented.

The Theory of Change behind the country programme relies upon effective devolved government, private sector and civil society partners as the principal drivers of inclusive green growth, as summarised in this overview table:

Assumption 1 Government is able and willing to work with national stakeholders and development partners (and vice versa) on a development agenda consistent with international human rights principles and Vision 2030 goals of high quality of life for all Kenyans. While political conflicts exist, they do not prevent Government and civil society from pursuing democratic and pro-poor development objectives, and….

Assumption 2 Security and conflict levels permit Government, civil society and businesses to operate, although there may be periodic incidents and problems of access, notably in northern and coastal regions of Kenya…

Assumption 3 Implementation of the Constitution of 2010 progresses more or less according to plan and allows for devolution of power from central government to the 47 new counties capable of assuming their roles and deliver services in an effective and accountable manner...

Inputs Denmark provides financial and technical inputs, in conjunction with other development partners, to programmes targeting key enabling factors, including public sector governance, anti-corruption, human rights promotion, equal access to devolved health services, private sector engagement in green growth, employment creation and income generation. Uptake of these inputs by Kenyan partners will….

Short term changes

Help build more inclusive, transparent and accountable governance and economic systems and processes and involving and building the capacity of key change agents in central government, local counties, business and civil society partners - with the effect that…

Medium term changes

Kenya’s devolved government, its dynamic private sector and its vibrant civil society effectively promote green growth, human rights and social inclusion of women, youth and vulnerable groups through improved governance standards and more equal access to social and legal services - and these…

Long term, lasting changes

Contribute to help build a globally competitive, prosperous and equitable Kenya with inclusive green growth and employment, regional cooperation and stability.

Chains of results in governance, health and green growth programmes are summarised below. Programmes are aligned to the four priority areas of the Right To A Better Life (2012) as they explore opportunities arising from the 2010 Constitution and take a Human Rights Based Approach (HRBA) to tackling development challenges by supporting duty bearers as well as right-holders. Principles of participation, transparency, accountability and non-discrimination guide the design and implementation of all three thematic programmes. To illustrate implications of HRBA, the health programme pioneers on-budget support to 47 new duty-bearing counties for service delivery through 3,900 health facilities in the country to promote more equal and accountable access to

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services. At the same time, through civil society partners African Medical Research Foundation (AMREF) and the Gender Violence Resource Centre right-holders are supported in claiming sexual and reproductive health and rights. In order to optimise effectiveness and efficiency in achieving its objectives of democracy & human rights, equitable prosperity, inclusive green growth and employment as well as stability and security the country programme works with a purpose-suited combination of public, private sector and civil society partners. Where possible, the country programme makes use of baskets and delegated cooperation with like-minded development partners. Furthermore, focus on a limited number of thematic engagements with a reduced number of partners will enable lean and targeted results-orientation. Impact of support is an important criteria behind programme identification for: (i) governance to underpin national efforts to move decisions and resources closer to citizens through devolution of power; (ii) health to support decentralised service delivery in a key area to poverty reduction and (iii) green growth to enable resource generation for sustainable development in Kenya. Kenya is environmentally vulnerable and not least the northern parts of the country where recurrent droughts, lack of water, climate change-poverty and marginalisation justifies country programme focus on sustainability where improved management of natural resources is key to greening ambitions. Programmatic support for private sector-led green growth is also instrumental in achieving sustainability in the economic sense of financing ambitions to reach middle-income status by 2030. In this context, the country programme is envisaged to increasingly play a catalytic role, such as building capacity at county level and bringing services closer to people. This will build on the current Danida approach being one of the development partners working closest with on budget use of national systems and being first mover in direct support to counties mandate for providing health services.

4. Thematic programme objectives and summaries The Kenya country programme consists of a total of three thematic programmes contributing to democratic reform, inclusive green growth and human rights, including the right to health. The Country Programme (2015-20) builds on lessons learned from four existing sector programmes and, pursue synergies with the national context and within the country programme. The Thematic Programme for Green Growth merges the two existing sector programmes for Business Sector and Natural Resource Management and reduces the number of engagements. A lean and manageable programme is the rationale behind plans to reduce the current number of engagement partners from app. 30 to max 24. The focus and prioritisation involves ending assistance to otherwise relevant and justifiable interventions such as, for example, the African Enterprise and Challenge Fund funding mechanism for Renewable Energy and Adaptation to Climate Technologies (REACT). Another management-for-results instrument is delegated cooperation and modalities such as donor baskets and joint programmes with

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donor leads. Danida has taken on delegated cooperation (EU) in natural resource management and will seek to delegate in other areas. Crosscutting support for improved Public Sector Management is an example of how the new Country Programme includes synergies and a coherent approach to supporting the process of devolution with relevance for efforts to move decisions and services close to citizens in governance reform, devolution of health service delivery and creation of green growth opportunities – while pursuing improved levels of accountability. Thematic programme objectives are summarised below with details in the Theory of Change models (Annex 8.1) and results frameworks (Annex 8.6).

4.1 Governance Contributing to strategic focus areas 1 and 3 of the Denmark-Kenya Policy Paper,

the development objective for the governance programme is to:

‘Contribute to the implementation of the Constitution, consolidation of an

accountable, inclusive and participatory democracy with increased stability’.

Assumption 1 Denmark, a longstanding key donor on human rights, gender equality and public financial management, continues to enjoy special access to the main civil society actors as well as government institutions – and….

Assumption 2 Government of Kenya provides a supportive regulatory framework allowing civil society and media to hold key duty bearers accountable –furthermore…

Assumption 3 Political will at highest level of government to public sector reform facilitates implementation of new Bill of Rights and devolution.

Inputs Denmark provides financial and technical inputs, in conjunction with other donors, to programmes targeting the rule of law, public sector reform, anti-corruption, human rights promotion and minority rights, civic education, effective electoral systems and equal access to devolved governance systems and enhanced security, stability and peace.

Short term changes These inputs contribute to: - Increasing public sector efficiency at national and county level, including

capacity to implement programmes to reduce corruption and direct resources to the poor and marginalised

- Enhancing participatory governance by civil society with the effect that duty bearers are held to account

- Improving democratic practice through credible electoral systems, citizens’ rights and access to justice to make elections free and fair and reduce ethnic and religious conflict

- Supporting peace and stability by engaging in the continuum of root causes of conflict and a strengthened security sector

Medium term changes

As a result, enhanced public sector efficiency combined with a vibrant civil society holding duty bearers to account will enable rule of law and incremental progress on implementing rights enshrined in the Constitution and consolidating regional cooperation and stability…

Long term, lasting changes

….In turn contributing to effective devolved government as foreseen by the Constitution, consolidation of a democratic, accountable, inclusive and participatory political system with increased stability in Kenya ….

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4.2 Green growth and employment This Programme supports the second strategic focus area of the Denmark-Kenya Policy Paper. The development objective of the green growth and employment programme is:

“To contribute to inclusive green growth and employment in Kenya” The Programme will support Kenya in pursuing economic growth, reducing inequality and poverty and creating sustainable development through increased earnings and jobs, with special attention to youth and women. Assumption 1 The political situation in Kenya allows for improvement of business policy and

regulation, and a credible legal system ensures proper implementation of new and revised policy and regulation,

Assumption 2 Devolution mechanisms are progressively in place to support effective roll out of policies and strategies at county level and counties take an active role in implementing national policies at local level, and…

Assumption 3 Government demonstrates a high level of political will and drive in measures against corruption. This allows business to count on support from Government to increase the rate of economic growth and see important synergies between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

Inputs The Green Growth Programme supports enabling frameworks that promote sustainable private sector development through improvement of policy and regulatory conditions at National and County levels, development and greening of value chains in agribusiness and industry to create employment for youth and women, vocational training, and promotes renewable energy, resource efficiency and climate friendly technologies, and so:

Short term changes

Programme partners increase their levels of awareness and skills in green growth and at the same time access of key stakeholders to innovative green technology and financial solutions increases, allowing for:

Medium term changes

Increase in private sector engagement in inclusive green growth facilitated by improved business environment for the private sector

Participation of local communities in green growth initiatives Increase in income generation for youth and women engaging in green growth Established functional framework for sustainable management and utilization of

natural resources to support green economic activity.

Long term, lasting

These changes contribute to the improved competitiveness of targeted value chains and the creation of sustainable and decent jobs (skilled and semi-skilled) of critical

Increased public sector efficiency

Increased participatory governance

Improved democratic practice

Peace and stability

Inter-ventions

Strengthening of Public Financial Management systems Devolution system strengthening

CSO support for accountability and participation

Strengthening of electoral systems Judiciary reform Women’s rights empowerment

Peace, security and stability incl civil society program in this area

7 engagement partners and total budget of 200 million DKK. See Theory of Change diagram in annex

8.1. for details.

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changes importance to Kenya’s realization of its vision to become a globally competitive and prosperous country.

Private sector engagement in inclusive green growth

Decent jobs and income generation

Sustainable management of natural resources

Inter-ventions

Support enabling environment - Policy frameworks - Incentives structures

Green value chain development Promote and support renewable energy, resource efficiency and climate friendly technologies Support to capacity building in green growth Vocational training

Support to capacity building Support to enabling environment and climate adaptation for green growth Incentive support to climate adaptation measures Support pro-poor planning, budgeting and improvement of framework conditions at national and county level.

Max 12 engagements partners and total budget up to 630 million DKK. See Theory of Change diagram in annex 8.1. for details.

4.3 Health The thematic programme on health supports the first strategic focus area of the Policy Paper i.e. Implementing the Constitution towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya. The development objective is to:

‘Contribute to provision of and equitable access to quality health care’ Assumption 1 Government and development partners demonstrate a high level of political

commitment to ensuring an adequate funding for health service delivery and allow for effective mitigation of fiduciary risk.

Assumption 2 Sufficient focus by government and other stakeholders on national and local level health targets and reducing competition from other priorities – and:

Assumption 3 Capacity of 47 devolved counties is progressively developed to support effective roll out of health policies and strategies at county level and counties take an active role in implementing national policies.

Inputs The health programme provides on-budget funding for basic health care as defined by ‘Kenya Essential Package for Health’ through support to duty-bearers in national and county level authorities ‘and system strengthening and ‘Essential Medicines and Medical Supplies’ as well as well as support for right-holders through support to civil society service providers in sexual and reproductive health and gender violence prevention & recovery – and with these inputs:

Short term changes

Programme partners in national government, local counties and civil society increase their capacity to provide more health care and services across the country, in turn allowing for:

Medium term - More equitable basic health care in all 47 counties through direct funding

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changes to health facilities and funding for medical supplies - Improved quality and utilisation of Kenyan health service delivery - Increased access to family planning commodities, notably for young

Kenyans - Reduced prevalence of gender-based violence and improved access to

justice

Long term, lasting changes

These changes contribute to the improvements in provision of equitable access to quality health care – key to Kenya’s realisation of its vision to become a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life for all by 2030.

Basic health care Health service delivery

Sexual and reproductive health and rights

Gender-based violence

Inter- ventions

Support to Kenya Essential Package for Health Direct funding to facilities Funding for medical supplies

Service delivery systems improved in terms of: - Quality - Utilisation

Improved access to family planning commodities Youth-friendly services

Reduced prevalence of gender based violence Improved access to recovery & justice

5 engagements with total budget of 375 million DKK. See Theory of Change diagram in annex 8.1. for details.

5. Preliminary results framework and monitoring mechanisms The Kenya Country Programme will in cooperation with the Danida Evaluation Department introduce the use of Real Time Evaluation based on the Theory of Change analysis elaborated in more detail. The idea is to monitor development in critical assumptions and progress on a small number of priority indicators such as for example inequality and job creation. Baseline and proxy indicators are being discussed with formulation teams for the three thematic programmes and Kenyan partners during a seminar planned for 7-8 October 2014. The Real Time Evaluation will help making evaluation recommendations immediate useful as contribution to the overall monitoring system for the country programme. The major monitoring task will still rest with the embassy as part of country programme management. Indicators to monitor programming progress and results will, where possible, rely on monitoring mechanisms used by government and other partners. By way of example, the thematic programme for health will rely on government statistics on reduced maternal and child mortality and improved sexual and reproductive health and rights as the overall programme indicator. Indicators such as share of mothers delivering by skilled attendance, children immunised and facilities without tracer drugs for more than two weeks will be used to monitor progress.

6. Preliminary assessment of risk Risks to Kenya country programme implementation have been assessed for each thematic programme in the three categories of context, programming and institutions. Details made available in Annex 8.7 Risk matrices for each thematic programme are being developed.

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Contextual risk in Kenya is assessed to consist of two principal elements: Firstly, deteriorating security and fragility can put programming progress in peril through a combination of increased terrorism, conflicts over land and natural resources and violent political disputes related to elections in 2017. Secondly, progress in implementing the process of devolution envisaged by the Constitution can be delayed by conflicts of interest or other factors to a point where opportunities for closer involvement of citizens in governance, promotion of green growth and health service delivery through the new counties become difficult to pursue as planned. Institutional risk – Even with timely progress on implementation of the Constitution, limited administrative capacity of the new counties will be a challenge. Planned mitigating efforts such as financial management training will strengthen capacity, but is unlikely to eliminate institutional risk, particularly in most needy regions of the country. Unclear division of roles played by civil society vs. government and discord between donors and government and development partners over issues such as civil society or minority rights may also challenge progress and results. Programmatic risk is primarily related to wide spread corruption. The country programme refrains from core budget support but provides on-budget funding for specific aspects of health service provision. Fiduciary risk is addressed by support for government and civil society anti-corruption measures but first and foremost through public management support for improved administrative systems to prevent misappropriation of funds. A new system of Rolling Audits constitutes an additional measure to mitigate the substantial risk of corruption. Lack of effective coordination between donors and also between implementing partners at local level is also seen as a potential programmatic barrier to achieving results as planned.

7. Indicative budget Allocations for thematic programmes according to the draft Danish Finance Bill (2015) are reflected in the table of pledges below. Specific allocations in each thematic programme are being detailed during formulation. Kenya Country Programme 2015-2010, DKK millions Health………………………………………………………………………………….….………..375 Green Growth and Employment (up to 15 million to CP monitoring) …630 Governance ……………………………………………………………………………………...200 Local Grant Authority (will be allocated in the CP for monitoring)….………5 Total ……………………………………………………………..…………………………..1.210 There is only foreseen a relatively small amount of unallocated funds within each of the three thematic programmes. The budget for monitoring and reviews up to 20 million DKK will be taken from the provisions to the Green Growth thematic programme (up to 15 million DKK) and from the 5 million DKK to LGA for 2015.

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Due to the different expiry dates the existing four sector programmes the disbursements under the new country programme follow this road map:

- Disbursements for Governance by January 2016 - Disbursements for Business Sector part of Green Growth by January 2016 - Disbursements for Natural Resource Man part of Green Growth by July 2016 - Disbursements for Health by late 2016 or early 2017

The country programme 2015-2020 will end by 30 June 2020. In response to the high fiduciary risk, options are being explored to introduce the concept of Rolling Audits. This approach is used by some like-minded development partners in Kenya and involves more frequent controls and capacity advice by auditors during the fiscal year, in turn allowing for any irregularities to be discovered in time for follow up action.

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8.1 Theory of Change for Kenya Country Programme

Vision: A globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030

Green Growth

Areas of intervention of Country Programme

Strategic focus areas: ‘Denmark-Kenya Policy Paper’

Thematic Programmes of Country Programme

Implementing the Constitution

towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya

Regional cooperation and

stability (Mainly support from regional stability

programme)

Inclusive green growth and

employment

Gender based violence

Sustainable management of natural

resources

Increased participatory governance

Improved democratic practice

Increased public sector efficiency

Private Sector engagement in Green Growth

Sexual and reproductive

health rights

Assumption 1: Government is able and willing to work with national stakeholders and development partners on a development agenda consistent with international human rights principles and Vision 2030 goals of high quality of life for all. While political conflicts exist, they do prevent democratic and pro-poor development, and… Assumption 2: Security and conflict levels permit Government, civil society and businesses to operate, although there may be periodic incidents and problems of access, notably in northern and coastal regions of Kenya – finally: Assumption 3: Implementation of the Constitution progresses as planned allowing for devolution from central government to 47 new counties capable of assuming their roles and deliver services in an effective and accountable manner.

Health Governance

Decent jobs and income generation

Peace and Stability Basic Health care

Health Service Delivery

This Theory of Change model provides a simplified overview of Kenya Country Programme chain of results from areas of intervention in the country programme to Kenya’s Vision 2030. Separate models exist for the three Thematic Programmes,

including partners

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Theory of Change Model for Thematic Programme on Governance (total budget of DKK 200m)

Vision: A globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030 Policy Paper Strategic Focus Area 1: Implementation the Constitution towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya

Policy Paper Strategic Focus Area 3: Promoting regional cooperation and stability

Increased participatory governance

Increased public sector efficiency

Activities (what specifically needs to be done? What outputs are to be produced?)

Areas of intervention / Development engagement

Intermediate results (Engagement outcomes)

PFMR Basket - Treasury

Devolution Partnership Facility for Kenya (DPFK)

TA & financial

Uraia (civil society network) TBD Donor basket

Gender rights and women’s empowerment

Public Financial Management

Judiciary trans-formation

Civil society support

Assumption 1: Denmark, a longstanding key donor on human rights, gender equality and public financial management, continues to enjoy special access to the main civil society actors as well as government institutions. Assumption 2: Government of Kenya provides a supportive regulatory framework allowing civil society and media to hold key duty bearers accountable. Assumption 3: Political will at highest level of government to public sector reform facilitates implementation of new Bill of Rights and devolution. Basket

Fund TBD

Technical assistance

International Development Law Organization (IDLO)

Technical assistance &funds

Partners; Channels of support?

inputs

Civil society support – institutional capacity, civic engagement, capacity building

Public Financial Management Reform: Support to Treasury; KENAO, counties

Support to judiciary transforma-tion frame-work; access to justice. Inst. & systems support, training

Gender mainstreaming in public sector; monitoring of 2/3 principles; capacity building of women

Support to Ministry of Interior and County Security Structures

Support to Demand Side on Security

Capacity building & Institutional support to MODP, National Bureau of statistics

Peace, security and stability

Electoral processes

Devolution capacity

Electoral cycle – cap building of IEBC, civic education, observation

Capacity building & Institutional support to MODP, County govts intergovern-mental units

Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS)

Improved democratic practice Promoting peace and stability

This Theory of Change model provides a simplified overview of the Thematic Programme for Governance and its chain of results from tentative partners over areas of intervention in the country programme to Vision 2030. The box below identifies three key assumptions for

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Theory of Change Model for Thematic Programme on Health (total budget of DKK 375m)

Vision: A globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030 Policy Paper Strategic Focus Area 1: Implementation the Constitution towards a prosperous and equitable Kenya

Equitable access and quality services provision improved

Activities (what specifically needs to be done? What outputs are to produced?)

Areas of intervention / Development engagement

Intermediate results (Engagement outcomes)

47 Counties

1 agreement

Ministry of Health

African Medical Research Foundation Kenya Medical Supplies Agency

Support to rights-based health reform, incl. fighting corruption

Support to Basic Health Care (Kenya Essential Package for Health)

Promote participation, oversight and transparency (right holders)

Support Sexual and reproductive rights

Direct financing of facility (to improve immunization, skilled delivery, ANC, TB etc.). Pilots on integrated basic health care; County legislation on health care financing

Capacity building and Institutional strengthening;; TA to ministry of devolution and planning; + county gov.; intergovern-mental focus

Gender Violence Recovery Centre

Service delivery systems; Referral, Health information systems; Public finance management systems incl. PFM accounting systems; Social accountability Inter-gov. relations (IGT) incl county to county coordination

Support to national policy development and capacity building in line with devolution

Support to systems strengthening (to for efficient and quality health services)

Health rights: Maternal and neonatal health; Youth sexual reproductive health and rights; Gender based violence; Community education

Essential Medicines and Medical Supplies (EMMS)

This Theory of Change model provides a simplified overview of the Thematic Programme for Health and its chain of results from tentative partners over areas of intervention in the country programme to Vision 2030. The box below identifies three key assumptions for

Assumption 1: Government and development partners demonstrate a high level of political commitment to ensuring an adequate funding for health service delivery and allow for effective mitigation of fiduciary risk. Assumption 2: Sufficient focus by government and other stakeholders on national and local level health targets and reducing competition from other priorities – and: Assumption 3: Capacity of 47 devolved counties is progressively developed to support effective roll out of health policies and strategies at county level and counties take an active role in implementing national policies.

Partners; Channels of support? inputs

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Theory of Change Model for Thematic Programme on Green Growth (total budget of DKK 630m)

Vision: A globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030 Policy Paper Strategic Focus Area 2: To contribute to inclusive green growth and employment

Increased private sector engagement in inclusive green growth facilitated by

improved business environment for the private sector.

Competitiveness of targeted value chains improved, resulting in creation of

sustainable and decent jobs (skilled and semi-skilled) and income generation for

especially youth and women.

Functional framework for sustainable management and

utilization of natural resources (to support green economic activities)

Activities (moving closer to what specifically needs to happen? What outputs are to be produced?).

Areas of intervention / Development engagement

Intermediate results / (engagement outcomes)

Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources

National Environment Management Authority

(Ministry of Industrialisation and Enterprise Development)

Ministry of Devolution and Planning – (to Water Services Trust Fund and Water Resources Management Authority)

Business Advocacy Fund

Trade Mark East Africa

Micro Enterprises Support Programme Trust (value chains)

(Kenya National Farmers Federation)

Support enabling environment (policy frameworks, incentive structures etc.)

Promote and support renewable energy and climate friendly technology

Community Development Trust Fund

Climate Innovation Centre

Kenyan Association of Manufacturers

(ILO – Vocational training and possible labour unions)

Partners; Channels of support;

inputs

Support to implementation of business and green investment policies\strategies at national and county levels.

Support to improve natural resource management

Enhance regional integration within the EAC

Support to innovative technology and financial solutions in agribusiness

Promote community driven natural resource conservation and management initiatives in agriculture, access to water, land, knowledge and finance; green value chain etc. to mitigate against environmental conflicts and climate vulnerabilities

Support to innovation and private sector investment in clean energy and resource efficiencies.

Promoting trade and commercial partnerships between DK, Kenya and EAC

Support to vocational training institutions and awareness raising on GG

Development and greening of value chains in agribusiness and industrial sectors, to create employment for youth and women

Support to capacity building in green growth

Advocacy and capacity building for business membership organization towards mainstreaming green growth

Assumption 1: The political situation in Kenya allows for improvement of business policy and regulation, and a credible legal system ensures proper implementation of new and revised policy and regulation. Assumption 2: Devolution mechanisms are in place to support effective roll out of policies and strategies at county level and counties take an active role in implementing national policies at local level. Assumption 3: Government demonstrates a high level of political will and drive in measures against corruption. This allows business to count on support from Government to increase the rate of economic growth and see important synergies between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

This Theory of Change model provides a simplified overview of the Thematic Programme for Green Growth and its chain of results from tentative partners over areas of intervention in the country programme to Kenya’s Vision 2030. The box below identifies key assumptions for programme and brackets indicate that partner selection is pending.

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8.2 Process Action Plan for Kenya Country Programme

Time Guidelines

Country policy paper Country programme Documentation

24 months prior to minister’s approval of the Country Prg.

Dialogue and analysis in the priority country regarding the Country policy paper

20 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country Programme

Drafting synopsis for the Country policy paper

Country programme budget is inserted into the proposal for the Finance Act – hearing will be sent out by UGS

Draft synopsis for the Country policy paper

Min. 19 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country Programme

Public consultations of the synopsis for Country policy paper – min. three weeks prior to presentation to the Danida Programme Committee

Synopsis for the Country policy paper

24 October 2013

Min. 18 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country Programme

Presentation of synopsis for the Country policy paper to the Danida Programme Committee

Synopsis incl. Annexes

5 Nov 2013

Discussion of the synopsis and 3 strategic focus areas with GoK at high level consultations

Draft synopsis without annexes

27 Nov 2013

Min. 17 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country Programme

Presentation of synopsis to the Ministers

Analysis started

Edited synopsis for Country policy paper;

18 Dec 2013

Min. 16 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country programme

Presentation of the synopsis to the Council for Development Policy

Edited synopsis

30 Jan 2014

Presentation of the synopsis to the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee

Same as above – only revised if major changes. Synopsis approved with only one amendment

23–28 Feb 2014

Visit to Kenya of the Danida Council for Development Policy

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Time Guidelines

Country policy paper Country programme Documentation

March 2014

Competence development for all PO staff at the Embassy (Kenya & Somalia) Workshop conducted by flying squad from KVA/UFT

7-8 April 2014

Workshop on Theory of Change. Danida EVAL facilitates in order to discuss M&E and design for real time evaluation

April –May

Request for Proposals and contracting of process consultant and formulation teams

May Policy paper ready in English version

Drafting concept note

June – Oct. 2014

Fielding of formulation missions for Thematic Programmes:

- Green Growth formulation commenced by July 2014 - Good Governance formulation commenced by July 2014 - Devolved Health formulation commenced by July 2014 - -PFM as cross cutting support commenced by July 2014

Kenya Country Prg., Thematic Prg. Docs and Development Engagement Documents

Aug 11-15

Visit to Kenya of the Minister for Trade and Development

25 Aug 2014

Concept Note to KVA 3 weeks before meeting of Danida Prg. Committee

Publishing and layout of Policy Paper to be agreed with PDK

Concept Note ready for Public Consultation

Draft Concept Note including six mandatory annexes

4 Sept 13 months prior to minister’s approval of the Country Prg.

Presentation of Country Policy Paper to MFA / Koncernledelsesforum

Draft Final Policy Paper

Sept 11 months prior to minister’s approval of Country Prg.

Final Country Policy Paper for Ministerial approval

Final Policy Paper

15 Sept 2014

Danida Programme Committee

Danish translation of Policy Paper ready

Danida Programme Committee to discuss Concept Note for Country Programme, incl. Annexes

Concept Note and annexes. Feedback from public hearing & Danida Prg. Committee

Sept-Dec 2014

Country Programme Document to be prepared for Appraisal

Consolidate embassy and formulation teams inputs to Country Prg. and Development Engagement Documents

Final drafts: Country Prg. Doc. & Thematic Programme and Development Engagement Documents

15 Dec 2014

8 months prior to Minister’s approval of Country Programme

Draft ToR for appraisal forwarded to TAS

Draft ToR

15 Dec 2015

All draft documentation for Country Programme forwarded to TAS

Draft Country Prg. Document incl. Thematic Programme and

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Time Guidelines

Country policy paper Country programme Documentation

Development Engagement Documents

Feb 2015

Appraisal Appraisal Mission fielded by TAS (KMJ)

Draft Appraisal Report

March 2015

6 months prior to the minister’s approval of the Country programme

Formulation teams revise Engagement Documents as per the recommendations of the appraisal report, thus finalising the appraisal process

Final Appraisal Report, Revised final drafts of Engagement Documents

April 2015

2 months prior to the Minister’s approval of the Country programme

Country programme Document with appropriation cover sheet forwarded to KVA

Country programme Document, annexes and Development engagement Documents

May 2015

2 months prior to the Minister’s approval of the Country programme

Presentation to the Danida External Grant Committee

June 2015

After Danida External Grant Committee meeting

Minister approves Country programme

Resumé from Danida External Grant Committee

Direct legal basis for the commitment is expected to be in place with the Finance Bill for 2015:

June 2015

After Minister’s approval

Signing of legally binding agreements (commitments) with partners

Government-to-government agreement(s) and/or other legally binding agreements

After agreement(s) are signed

Book commitment in MFA’s financial systems within budgeted quarter

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8.3 Assessment according to the five budget support principles Criterion Comment

1. Fundamental values

Constitution of Kenya 2010 – National Values and Principles of Governance (Section 10) and Bill of Rights (Chapter 4) Human rights Gender & women’s rights Minorities and non-discrimination Independence of the Judiciary Kenya has ratified all major treaties and is compliant with the Paris Principles of National Human Rights Institutions. The Government has developed a National Policy and Action Plan for Human Rights in recognition of its primary responsibility to observe, respect, protect, promote and fulfil the rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with the Constitution of Kenya, 2010. However, Government has been criticised for being slow on implementing the recommendations made in a landmark report on human rights abuses stretching over nearly five decades. Despite strict time-lines outlined in the final report by the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, TJRC, released in May, none of the recommendations have been acted upon.

A policy on National Values has been written and discussed with stakeholders. Legislation emanating from the policy will be drafted and enacted by Parliament. The Gender Directorate is now under the Ministry of Devolution and Planning where its efforts will be mainstreamed into both national and county governments. The National Gender and Equality Commission (NGEC) actively monitor Kenya’s compliance with international laws on gender and minorities. The NGEC and the Ministry are also seeking to establish a working relationship beneficial to the policy and governance environment. The introduction of County Women Representatives has bolstered the focus on women’s legislative role. The Judiciary under the Constitution is now operating in full autonomy with a fully operational and representative Judicial Service Commission that manages the affairs of the Judiciary and includes representation from the Law Society of Kenya. The Judiciary also has a Judiciary Fund to strengthen financial autonomy though their budgets still undergo Parliamentary approval which

5

Criterion Comment

still exposes them to political interference. Danida prioritises gender support, human rights and access to justice including support for women’s rights through FIDA (Federation of Women Lawyers – Kenya) and technical assistance to the supply side for gender mainstreaming (Ministry of Devolution). Human Rights support by Danida includes a grant to the Kenya Human Rights Commission (NGO) while access to justice is supported on both demand side (ICJ-Kenya) and supply side (technical assistance to the Judiciary)

2. Solid national policies and plans for poverty reduction, good governance and sustainable development

-Solid public policies to achieve poverty reduction, GG & SD -Assessment of relevance, progress political will and capacity to implement -Policy framework for monitoring progress

Vision 2030 & MTP II Vision 2030, launched in June 2008 is the national long-term development blue-print to create a globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030. It aims to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. The V2030 is premised on economic, social and political pillars based on foundations/enablers for national transformation. The economic pillar

Danida seeks to align to Kenya’s development plans and national agenda. Joint donor-government dialogue is mainly facilitated through the bi-annual development partnerships forums. These have addressed both political and development aspects resulting in commitments monitored over time. Sectoral/ thematic dialogue is undertaken on sector specific joint donor-government working groups. Currently, devolution and security dominate the discussions. Danida channels a large part of support using country systems, namely health and

6

Criterion Comment

The foundations/enablers which include infrastructure development, public sector reforms, security are deemed critical in supporting the V2030 and the country’s overall development process. The Economic pillar aims towards ‘moving the economy up the value chain’ identifies priority sectors that will drive economic growth towards the targeted 10% by 2017. These include tourism, manufacturing, business process outsourcing; and, oil and mineral resources. The social pillar emphasises ‘investing in the people of Kenya’ and groups efforts in the education, health, environment, gender sectors. Finally, the Political pillar, focuses on ‘moving to the future as one nation’ and envisages a political system that is issue-based, people centred, results oriented and accountable to the public. The Vision is operationalised by successive Medium Term Plans. The second 5 year Medium Term Plan (MTP) 2013-2017 outlines priorities and flagship projects towards the implementation of the Kenya Vision 2030. Themed as ‘Transforming Kenya: Pathways to Devolution, socio-economic development, Equity and National Unity’, the MTP II places emphasis on full implementation of devolution, promoting equity and youth employment. The MTP II has integrated key issues outlined in the ruling party’s (Jubilee) manifesto and thus enjoys political support.

public financial management reforms support, and is thus a direct contributor to the implementation of key strategic documents. In conclusion, the Government of Kenya is deemed to have solid national policies and plans. As with its predecessor, the Medium Term Plan (MTP) II is faulted for lacking explicit measures to directly address rising inequality levels. Further, the potential impact of insecurity, largely due to terrorism, is not fully considered. Finally, whereas the MTP II provides an implementation matrix, the monitoring and evaluation framework is not adequate. Currently, the national bureau of statistics does not provide timely, sufficiently disaggregated data to inform development programming. This deficiency is further accentuated by the demands of county governments, most of whom lack adequate current data for their needs.

3. Stable macro-economic framework -Potential sources of instability -Macro-economic and fiscal policies in place -Vulnerability to external shocks & efforts to strengthen macroeconomic performance -Domestic revenue mobilisation

Kenya has maintained a stable macroeconomic environment and has, at the same time, been developing key infrastructure facilities and public works nationwide to stimulate growth. The GDP growth rates appear to have stabilised and to be

It is concluded that Kenya has maintained appropriate policies that have ensured a stable macro-economic framework. However, the level of national debt compared to revenue generation and increasing demand pressures resulting from devolution need to be monitored.

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Criterion Comment

improving following the disruption caused by post-election violence in 2008. The economy achieved a 4.7% growth rate in 2013, up from the 1.5% experienced in 2008. The short-term projection is positive, expected to reach 6.0% (2014), driven by private sector investments and declining interest rates. Agriculture continues to be the largest contributor to GDP at 25.3%, followed by wholesale and retail at 10.2%. Following discoveries of oil, coal and gas deposits in 2012, the Kenyan economy is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with a shift in GDP composition in the medium to long term. In the meantime, Kenya is the largest and most diversified economy in East Africa with a GDP per capita nearly twice the size of Tanzania and Uganda. The government is expected to rebase calculation of GDP later in 2014, which is expected to result in higher GDP figures. The government has maintained effective fiscal and monetary policies, resulting in stable inflation and interest rates. Inflation declined to 5.7% in 2013, from 9.4% in 2012. The decline was attributed to improved supply of basic foodstuffs and stable prices of petroleum products. Notably, the decline was despite implementation of the VAT Act, which imposed tax on a number of foodstuff that were previously exempt. Similarly, interest rates dropped in 2013 largely due to the lower inflationary pressure and a reduction in the CBR. In 2013, the Government largely maintained the debt to GDP ratios below 50%. Recently, following increased loans and anticipated international borrowing (Eurobond), the national debt levels are expected to increase significantly. The World Bank estimates that poverty levels are likely to have declined to 39% down from 47% in 2005. Poverty levels are higher in rural areas marked by lower level of education and high population growth rates. As such, a large percentage of the population still live below the

8

Criterion Comment

national poverty line and unemployment is estimated at 40 per cent. With its high levels of inequality, Kenya remains the most unequal in the East African Community. This results in marginalized communities as well as substantial challenges in equal access and quality of social services, such as water and sanitation, health and education.

4. Public financial management Credibility of the budget Anti-corruption measures Comprehensiveness and transparency Policy based budgeting Predictability & control in budget execution Accounting, recording and reporting External scrutiny and audit Kenya’s most recent Public Expenditure and Framework and Analysis (PEFA) report, undertaken in 2012, notes improvements in policy based budgeting, debt management, internal control and external scrutiny. However, budget credibility, accounting recording and use of country systems by donors have deteriorated. The aforementioned report assesses that the budget has become a more ‘credible’ instrument in terms of budget allocation, revenue collection and distribution of resources. However the report also finds a need for improving accounting and reporting aspects which have persistently been scored poorly. Furthermore, the country functional reporting does not take place. Parliament is involved in the budgeting process, albeit at a very late stage but in accordance with the constitution. Overall Kenya has improved its performance in the budget process since 2006, most significantly in the budget credibility (scoring: B) with some setbacks related to the extent of unreported government operations (scoring: D).

Public procurement A new public procurement regulation was gazetted in 2005 and operationalised in 2007.

Danida contributes towards the Government’s public financial management reform programme, with an emphasis on tax administration, accounting & reporting; and control & oversight. The embassy is also actively involved in policy dialogue with government on the same; and closely coordinates with other development partners in the ‘sub-sector’. The embassy plans to continue with these initiatives in the country programme. It is concluded that Kenya’s Public Financial Management (PFM) is improving. Past and ongoing reforms are expected to contribute more. However, fiscal decentralisation will warrant close attention as county governments establish and operationalise the county PFM systems. Further, with the PFM Act, donors will be expected to enhance their use of country systems which may limit flexibility in programme design.

9

Criterion Comment

The regulation makes it mandatory to use open tenders for procurement with clear separation of duties of accounting officers, tender committee, and evaluation committee as so forth. The sustainability of the Public Procurement Act is at risk because there is not a clear understanding in public entities as to its full potential as a financial and budgetary control mechanism. The Public Expenditure and Framework and Analysis (PEFA) 2012 found that the competition, value for money and controls in procurement has been strengthened by introduction of a procurement manual and guidelines for framework contracts. However, many procurement operations in line ministries are still non-transparent.

Independent Audit Kenya has a National Audit Office (KENAO) with a mandate of authorization of issues from exchequer account and audit of all government accounts, courts, commissions and bodies (see below)

The PEFA 2012 report also found that the internal control system, including commitment control, has not been very effective and found evidence of the occurrence of many deficiencies. Furthermore, the report highlights poor status of annual financial statements reflecting mismanagement and poor control. Furthermore poorly functioning parliamentary oversight as a consequence of a weak constitution will need to be addressed as part of the constitutional review. Progress has however occurred in PFM, including the enactment of the PFM Act (2012) which repealed outdated legislation. Further progress has been realized in the rollout of IFMIS to county governments as well as all ministries and MDAs. Additionally, the regulations that should accompany the PFM Act (2012) are being finalised.

Corruption: In 2012, Kenya was ranked 136 out 175

10

Criterion Comment

economies in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Accountability of the state has slightly improved mainly because of changes brought about by the new Constitution brought about institutional changes such as reforms in the Judiciary.

5. Transparency and oversight of the budget Disclosure of relevant fiscal information in timely and systematic manner Fiscal Information throughout the budget cycle is provided in a timely manner and stakeholder engagement has improved. County Governments do not provide timely input for public participation though. NGOs involved in the budget process seek to distil budget information for the public but this is not widespread Scrutiny by Parliament/Parliamentary oversight, Parliament is now bicameral with a National Assembly and a Senate. The National Assembly provides scrutiny on the Executive including budget oversight and approval as well as continuous monitoring of government expenditure and implementation. The Senate is charged with protecting devolution and providing oversight on the county governments. The Auditor General The Auditor General’s office is improving in capacity and provides audits on the Government Ministries and parastatals. However, there has been a backlog for many years which it seeks to improve. Civil Society organisations & media role in transparency and oversight Civil society and media continue to provide critical oversight role. However Parliament enacted a new law in 2013 to govern the management and oversight of NGOs and an amendment seeking to restrict external funding to them is being discussed. Social accountability The COK 2010 provides public participation as

It is concluded that Kenya has improved significantly on transparency and oversight. However, additional efforts will be required towards addressing enhancing access and understanding of budget information.

11

Criterion Comment

one of the principles for public financial management. However, effective public participation is yet to be fully ingrained in public planning and budgeting processes. County Governments have also not established policies to guide public participation. Transparency In 2012, Kenya scored 49 out of 100, unchanged from its 2010 scores. The score places Kenya above the average score of 43; which is lower than Uganda’s in the region. Therefore Kenya does not provide citizens with all the information necessary to enable the latter hold government accountable on management and use of public funds.

6. The Danish Mission’s Conclusion

Is it feasible to provide budget support and if not what major obstacles have been identified?

Denmark has a long development experience with Kenya but no previous experience with the provision of budget support or sector budget support to Kenya. Neither has budget support been provided by like-minded donors so far. Budget support is not considered feasible at present. Rather, donor support to Kenya currently focuses on closely monitored programme support channelled through a careful selection of government, private sector and civil society actors.

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8.4 Human Rights Based Approach & Gender Equality Screening Note

Tool for Human Rights Based Approach (HRBA) and Gender

Equality Screening

Purpose: The HRBA and Gender Screening Note complement the HRBA Guidance Note and the up-coming Gender Equality Strategy and the Gender Equality Toolbox. The purpose of the note is to facilitate and strengthen the application of the Human Rights Based Approach and mainstreaming of gender equality programming related to Danish development cooperation. It can be used as an inspirational checklist by all staff.

The information in the note should be based on the analysis undertaken as part

of the preparation of the Country policy paper and should draw on major Human

Rights and gender equality analysis relevant for the country such as UPR-

processes, reports and documents from OHCHR, EU HR Strategy, CEDAW-

reporting as well as relevant analysis prepared by other major donors. The

Screening Note should be attached to the country programme concept note, and

the questions raised below should be reflected in the country programme

document. Appraisal of country programmes will include a specific focus on

HRBA and Gender Equality.

Basic info

Title

KENYA COUNTRY PROGRAMME

Country/ region

KENYA

Budget in DKK mio.

DKK 1, 21 Billion*

Starting date and duration

2015-2020 (5 years)

Human Rights Based Approach

Assess whether a Human Rights (HR) Based Approach has been applied in the programme:

Human Rights Assessment and Standards

Issues: yes no Explain: Have major HR analysis relevant for the country been consulted (UPR, OHCHR, EU HR Strategy, other relevant donor documents) Y

HR analysis has been consulted and UPR in particular was found to justify country programme focus on poverty, equality, political reform and economic inclusion.

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UPR 2010 lists ‘Poverty and inequality’ as the primary challenge faced by Kenya and emphasises the significant gap between poor and non-poor segments of the population in achieving basic human rights. Unemployment is listed as the second most significant challenge followed by ‘Bad governance and lack of respect for the rule of law’. Additional studies have also been carried out as part of the preparatory analysis for the country programme, notably (i) Exploring Kenya’s Inequality – Pulling Apart or Pooling Together? (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics & Society for International Development with funding from Danida) and (ii) Securing the Counties – Options for Security after Devolution in Kenya (Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies - 2014).

Have key international HR standards and/or mechanisms influenced choice and formulation of outcome areas?

Y

Kenya has domesticated the covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ECOSOC) explicitly in the Constitution (Article 43:1) which recognises rights to: the highest attainable standard of health care, including reproductive health care; accessible and adequate housing; reasonable standards of sanitation; freedom from hunger and adequate food of acceptable quality; clean and safe water in adequate quantities; social security; and education. Importantly, the Constitution sets out clear obligations on the state (Article 21) to progressively realise the rights in Article 43 and affirms that these rights are justiciable (Articles 22 and 23). In addition, it emphasizes that if the state claims it has not fulfilled an Article 43 requirement because of lack of resources, the onus is on the state to show that in allocating resources it prioritised ensuring ‘the widest possible enjoyment of the right or fundamental freedom having regard to prevailing circumstances, including the vulnerability of particular groups or individuals’ (Article 20(5)). DANIDA programming in health, green

14

growth and governance has been influenced by these ECOSOC rights and their implementation through adhering to the constitution including ensuring that citizens have a good understanding of the budget process and can demand for the realization of their rights to be adequately resourced. The programme contributes towards improving framework conditions for green growth and the creation of employment, including through promotion of improved CSR standards and implementation of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (2011). Green growth contributes towards realisation of Vision 2030 goals of poverty reduction, in turn a key objective in addressing frameworks enshrined in the UN Declaration on Human Rights.

Where relevant, is application at national level, including major gaps between human rights in principle vs. human rights in practice, evaluated and identified?

Y

Article 59 of the Constitution establishes the National Gender and Equality Commission, the Commission on Administrative Justice (Ombudsman) and the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR). The KNCHR actively participated and coordinated stakeholder input into the UPR process in 2010 and developed a matrix outlining stakeholder response to the governments UPR report. This report provides a good status of the practice and experience of human rights against government policy and is thus evaluated and identified for developing this policy paper. The current parliament has constituted a joint Senate and National Assembly Committee on National Cohesion and Equal Opportunities. This is perceived as placing the issue of rights especially for minorities at the apex of national policy making and oversight. The challenges of implementation of the new constitutional Bill of Rights will form

15

a key part of DANIDA programming where dual support will be given to the State to assist in implementation systems and to non-state to continue to educate the citizens to equip them to demand their rights. The effects of non-implementation of the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Report as well as the Reports on illegal and Irregular land acquisition and allocation are converging with security lapses and marginalization amongst certain communities into a potentially divisive outcome.

Are key recommendations from UPR for the thematic programmes and from any treaty bodies, special procedures, INGOs, HNRIs etc. that require follow up at national level considered?

Y

Recommendations from UPR and the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights are considered. An annual progress report is published by the KNCHR and includes developments relating to a wide range of issues including death penalty, freedom of information, women’s rights, economic social and cultural rights, sexual orientation and gender identity amongst others.

Are rights-holders identified?

Y

These include citizens of Kenya especially women (e.g. affected by physical violence), youth, persons with disability and persons living in poor and vulnerable regions.

Are duty-bearers identified?

Y

The Government including the Executive, Parliament, and the Judiciary; the new 47 Counties, the Private Sector and the Civil Society.

Assess whether Human Rights Principles have been applied in the preparation and in the design of the programme? Non-discrimination: Are any groups among rights-holders excluded from access and influence in the thematic programme areas identified?

N

The programme is all-inclusive as a matter of principle and will not exclude any potential beneficiary in the target groups. Key groups identified in the programme design include women, citizens who have challenges accessing justice, poor and insecure regions of the country especially the border counties; groups that have difficulty accessing health services;

Are disaggregated data available on most vulnerable groups?

N

In preparation of the country programme (2015-20) the Embassy has supported a study on inequalities in Kenya entitled Exploring Kenya’s inequality: pulling apart or

16

pooling together? (2013). Key findings of this study are now being used by policy makers to budget and programme in a sensitive manner ensuring that the most vulnerable groups are included. One of the key partners in producing the report included the National Bureau of Statistics that is the custodian of National data used to generate key reports such as the Population census, the Economic Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey. This ensures all data from all areas in the country are available and utilized. Disaggregated data will be generated in further detail during the formulation of the programme M&E Framework.

List any key support elements included to promote non-discrimination

Y

a. Integrated approaches at local level to mobilise beneficiaries, local authorities and NGOs etc.

b. Use of participatory and integrated methods in the measurement of programme outcomes.

c. Use of inequality data integrated in the programme design.

Participation and inclusion: Are barriers for participation, inclusion and empowerment of rights holders identified?

Y

Barriers are economic – involving marginalisation of disadvantaged segments of the populations – and also cultural in nature – involving perceptions and norms on participation and inclusion in public matters. Barriers will be addressed by applying deliberate targeting and measures such as behaviour change communication.

List any key support elements included to promote participation and inclusion

Y

By way of example, targeted programme interventions will promote equitable access to information and to productive resources for both men and women in health, green growth as well as governance activities. This includes working with the foremost civic education and engagement programme in the country that DANIDA has supported for over ten years now.

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Transparency: Is the extent to which information is accessible to rights holders including marginalised groups assessed? Where relevant, whether information is available in other than official languages of the country in question should be indicated.

Y

Partnerships with local community based organizations and county governments will ensure that information is made accessible to rights holders in a format that can be consumed easily including through the use of local languages. At the implementation level, the programme takes into account these challenges. It will be ensured that communication on programme priorities such as elections, access to family planning commodities and resources to promote inclusive green growth is done in the language and manner most acceptable to target populations.

List any key support elements included to promote transparency

Y

Inclusiveness is key from the outset where all stakeholders are involved in identifying channels of intervention, including through civil society support for accountability and participation in governance. Support to policy level influencing including access to information policy will ensure that government is obligated to provide access to public state information necessary for development.

Are key accountability mechanisms in the relevant area – both horizontal and vertical listed?

N

Accountability mechanisms will be delineated during the formulation phase.

Are obstacles, e.g. capacity and political-economy incentives that duty-bearers and rights holders face to exercise their obligations and rights listed?

N Key obstacles include administrative capacity of the 47 new counties and financial management skills of civil servants will be comprehensively addressed in the programme risk analysis.

List any key support elements included to promote accountability

N Promotion of accountability is a key priority in the governance programme, including through CSO support. Details will be addressed during formulation.

Results/Indicators List any indicators designed to monitor the realisation of specific human rights

Y a. Improved access to health services to all. Improved access to sexual and reproductive health and rights. b. Increased number of women with improved access to justice c. Reduced incidence of gender based violence d. Number of jobs created for women and

18

youth e. Number of citizens involved in civic engagements f. No of trained election officers g. Effective use of judicial case management system (NB: specific indicators to be identified and detailed during formulation)

List any indicators designed to monitor the integration of the four principles

Y a. Non–discrimination – equitable distribution of financial and human resources

b. Participation and inclusion: Increase/improved participation of women and youth in political processes at all levels

c. Transparency – increase in documentation made openly available and full documentation, e.g. in reports by Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Annual Report and Judiciary Working Committee on Electoral Preparations

d. Accountability: Increased use of social accountability monitoring at implementation at grassroots level so as to improve delivery of health services

Specific indicators to be identified during programme formulation.

List any key indicators chosen to track capacity of key partners (both rights holders and duty bearers)

Y a. Increased access and information on family planning targeting young girls and women. b. Improved business and social-economic status of beneficiaries especially women and youth Specific indicators to be identified during programme formulation.

Dialogue Partners Define key dialogue partners (duty bearers) to be addressed by the country programme

Y

a. Government of Kenya and the new 47 devolved Counties

b. CSO/NGO’s – individual and umbrella bodies

c. Private Sector actors and professional sector bodies

Define key alliance partners, including other likeminded donors, multilateral partners and CSO’s

Y

Sweden, Norway, Finland, UK, Canada, Netherlands, EU, WHO, UNFPA, UNEP, UN WOMEN, World Bank.

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State major dilemmas/risks associated with the policy dialogue and proposed mitigation measures (incl. reference to Framework for Risk Assessment)

Deterioration of relations between Government of Kenya and Development Partners due to for example legislation on civil society or media freedom or other issues constitutes a likely risk, potentially delaying country programme implementation.

Gender Screening Tool Are key challenges and opportunities for gender equality identified?

Y

Key challenges identified include: - Lack of political will to implement the Constitutional gender legislation in full, e.g. as reflected in current debates on the two-third gender representation rule causing controversies which may slow the enforcement of legislations on issues of women’s rights. - Limited access to and control of resources especially with reference to access to information, productive resources and decision-making power. - Increased incidence of gender based violence On-going Kenya Demographic Health Survey, once completed, will provide relevant statistics that can serve as baseline

Are reference made to CEDAW-reporting, UPR, and other relevant gender assessments?

Y

UPR - Denmark is following the joint approach in shared assessment (Joint Gender Analysis currently being undertaken by the European Commission and three EU member states). Other studies and assessments highlight issues of gender gaps relating to respect for human rights, democratic principles. Reports on ongoing judicial and police reforms are relevant for addressing issue of gender equality as they recommend measures to address gender based violence and lack of gender-sensitivity in handling judicial cases, access to justice and prisons. Reference to CEDAW is made in relations to issues of gender based violence and the right to health, including Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, especially

20

family planning services Identify opportunities/constraints for addressing gender equality issues

Y

Constraints mostly centre around cultural practice as the policy framework is in place. Kenya is a signatory to international conventions addressing gender equity; The Constitution of Kenya (2010) framework provides an enabling legal framework and policy environment to address these issues, as well as a good opportunity for advancing Human Rights through consultative and participatory process with all stakeholders. Slow enforcement by various institutions, the police and the Judiciary especially in regards to addressing issue of gender based violence. Increased dialogue and collaboration as well as continuous capacity for creation of dedicated gender and children desks at police stations Increased cases of domestic gender based violence directed to women and children women and children (Female Genital Mutilation still being practiced in some communities even though it has been abolished by law) Sexual and reproductive health and rights slowly being accepted though issue of traditions; customs, perceptions still need to be addressed. Opportunity to link/ create synergy with other national initiatives such as the “Beyond Zero Campaign”.in addressing MDG 4 (Reduce Child Mortality) and MDG 5 (Improve Maternal Health) The new government structure;- the Gender Directorate under the Ministry of Devolution and Planning, (the Presidency) means that issues of gender, gender equality, gender mainstreaming and women empowerment will get more attention, and gender coordination will be strengthened. Devolution process creates opportunities and challenges especially in terms of capacity.

Describe key strategic interventions to Y Green Growth and Employment.

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promote gender equality within each thematic programme?

Specific examples of gender-sensitive measures in green growth include support for gender-balanced value chains and gender-sensitive interventions by the Climate Innovation Centre. Will integrate issue of gender equality and women and youth empowerment into all activities through gender mainstreaming and in other cases, specific interventions. The aim is to create decent jobs and income generation (skilled and semi-skilled) with a focus on youth and women. Education, awareness and inclusiveness is key. the new country programme aims to address this gap through poverty-oriented development engagements in governance. Devolved Health. Examples of gender-sensitive aspects of the health programme are numerous and include support for maternal health, uptake of family planning commodities and reduced prevalence of violence against women. Through policy dialogue with the National Government, engagement with County governments to ensure implementation of policies, Denmark continues to participate in the country’s effort to strengthen existing systems, create systems where non exist to advance equitable access to health and provision of quality health care services for all. Protection and fulfilment of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights including support to family planning remain very integral in ensuring that increased uptake of family planning is improved Continuous gender mainstreaming and integration of gender equality throughout the programme mainly aimed contributing towards reduction of maternal and child mortality. Democratic Governance Women’s rights and empowerment is envisaged as a priority element in efforts to

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improve democratic practice. Examples of gender-specific programming in governance includes support for ‘Strengthened capacity and participation of women in governance’

Explain how gender specific purposes will be reached, which strategic approach, what activities are planned

Y

Continued engagement with Government both national & county, civil society institutions on issues of social accountability, reduction of maternal mortality and sexual reproductive health and rights. Targeting adolescents so as to reduce pregnancies and early marriages that have adverse effects on the health of young girls. Green Growth and Employment will create and raise levels of employment and income and will strive to create solutions which involve more women and youth

Define expected outputs. Y

The objective of the country programme is to support inclusive green growth and poverty reduction, support the democratic reform process – including devolution to 47 new counties and promotion of human rights. Outputs through the thematic programmes will include reducing poverty by targeting improved employment of youth and women. A case in point is value chain measures supported under the Green Growth programme expecting to create 1,400 new jobs for poor women. Poverty reduction will also be addressed by ensuring equitable access to quality health care to all regardless of gender. Democratic governance will contribute to implementation of the constitution and consolidation of a democratic, accountable inclusive and participatory political system that will contribute to improvement in transparency and accountability on human rights especially on gender equity and equality.

Identify gender equality indicators aligned with national targets on gender if possible.

Y

Improve access to justice for all Kenyans Ensure promotion and protection of human rights, gender equality and non-

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discrimination Decent Jobs creation and income generation (skilled and semi-skilled) with a focus on youth and women. Access to reproductive and maternal health care services.

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8.5 Climate change and green growth screening note

Basic Information

Programme title: Kenya Country Programme

Country/region: Ken Kenya

Estimated allocation: DKK 630 Million

Brief description of the Programme support:

To support Kenya in fighting poverty and creating sustainable development through green growth which will lead to increased earnings and employment opportunities especially for the youth and women.

Dates (expected): Programme committee: 15 September 2014 Appraisal: Feb 2015

Climate change screening

Assess the status of policies and strategies to respond to climate change in the country and sector. If the issue is inadequately dealt with (indicated by a tick in the “no” box), please add comments and assess the potential impact on the program (see also “next steps” section, below).

Issue: Yes No Comments and further work to be done:

1. Are the processes and impacts of climate change documented (e.g. in national communications to the UNFCCC)?

Designated National Authority in place at the National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA)

2. Is there a national climate change policy or strategy, including estimates of the economic costs of adaptation?

National Climate Change Response Strategy 2010 in place; climate change policy in progress

3. Have nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) and or Low Carbon Development Plans been identified (e.g. targets for renewable energy production)?

Contained in National Climate Change Action Plan 2013-2017

4. Has a national adaptation programme of action (NAPA) been approved identifying key sectors where adaptation is required?

Contained in National Climate Change Action Plan 2013-2017

5. Are there effective and operational meteorological and disaster preparedness organizations?

Fully fledged

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Meteorological department, Early Warning Systems; National + County disaster framework with budgetary allocations

Summarize the overall assessment of climate change impacts and responses:

Climate change impacts continue to manifest and affect various sectors in Kenya. However, implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures articulated in the national strategy and policy frameworks remains inadequate. Climate change still largely perceived and addressed as an environmental issue rather than a developmental issue.

Screening of Country Green Growth Framework

Assess the status of policies and strategies for green growth and the procedures for environmental impact assessment in the country and sector. If an issue is inadequately dealt with (indicated by a tick in the “no” box), please add comments and indicate further work to be undertaken (see also “next steps” section, below).

Issue: Yes No Comments and further work to be done:

1. Do national procedures and legislation for Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) exist?

Environmental Management and Coordination Act in place (incl. EIA) and SEA guidelines recently finalized and launched

2. Are there operational Green Growth Strategies/actions plans and/or National Environmental Action plans?

NEAP Framework 2009 – 2013, new one in progress

3. Are there regularly updated state of the environment reports and green growth monitoring systems with indicators?

SoEs done annually; GG framework not in place

4. Is there sufficient institutional and human capacity for green growth and environmental management in the sector concerned?

Completion of Green Growth Strategy and Implementation plan and broad capacity building on green growth needs to be factored in.

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Summarize the overall impression of the Country Green Growth Framework:

The National Climate Change Response Strategy and Action Plan espouse low carbon and climate resilient development. Kenya recently carried out a Green Economy Assessment to identify green growth opportunities and challenges across various sectors. Presently, a Green Economy Strategy and Implementation Plan is under development through efforts of an inter-ministerial committee and is expected to come to effect by 2015.

Climate change and Green Growth opportunities and risks of programme

Assess how climate change and environmental opportunities and risks will arise through the programme:

Will the programme ... Oppor-tunity:

Risk: None:

1. ... support green growth initiatives including livelihood improvements and resource efficiency

2. ... support the creation of decent and green job?

3. ... contribute to effective management and efficient use of natural resources

4. ... have direct or indirect impact on climate change (e.g. through increasing or reducing emissions of greenhouse gases)?

5. ... have direct or indirect impact on occupational health and safety?

6. ... lead to changes in land and resource tenure and access rights, including the rights of indigenous peoples?

7. ... include activities within or adjacent to protected or environmentally sensitive areas?

8. ... have direct or indirect impact on the resilience of communities in the face of natural disasters?

Summarize and explain climate change and green growth opportunities:

Abundant Renewable Energy Resources; Supportive Policy and Legal Framework Including the Constitution; A Supportive Private Sector and Civil Society ; Access to Modern, Clean Technology – land and resource tenure and access rights could be a risk requiring mitigation measures in certain cases of agricultural development interventions.

Summarize and explain climate change and green growth risks:

Financial Resource Constraint; Weak Governance ; Conflicting Policies and Laws and Inadequate Institutional Capacity; Inadequate Technical Capacity in Various Aspects of Green Growth Planning

Identify requirements for undertaking an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Categories are: [ A ] Full EIA required; [ B ] Partial EIA required; [ C ] No EIA required1.

1 Category A = Intervention is likely to have adverse environmental impacts that may be sensitive, irreversible, and significant in scale/scope; B = Intervention is likely to have negative impacts, but which are less significant, not as sensitive, numerous, major or diverse; C = The environmental risk of the intervention are of little or no concern.

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Intervention Name Category A, B or C:

1: Enabling frameworks for Green Economic Growth Select category: C

2: Promotion of Green Value Chains Select category: A

3: Renewable Enery, Resource Efficiency, Climate friendly Technologies

Select category: B

Will national regulations and procedures for EIA be applicable to activities of the programme that have potential environmental impacts? – Yes - No When will the EIA be undertaken?: Prior to the undertaking of the interventions with potential for environmental impact.

Next Steps – process action plan

Need for further work during the preparation, appraisal and implementation of the programme arising from the climate change and green growth screening: Suggested activity: Action needed Comments and elaboration:

1. Assessment of green growth and climate change opportunities in sector development plan.

To be done as part of programme formulation

2. Assessment of capacity for green growth and climate change management in the sector/country.

To be done as part of programme formulation

3. Prepare ToR for and conduct Country Analytical Work.

Substantial analytical work already done by UNEP and AfDB in Kenya; modest analysis to be done during programme formulation

4. Prepare ToR for and conduct SEA(s) of sector policies or plans.

This will be done by Ministry of Environment along with framework conditions work

5. Prepare ToR for and conduct EIA(s) for programme interventions.

This will be done by the implementing agencies as is relevant

6. Initiate donor harmonisation in the sector on green growth and climate change.

Ongoing donor harmonization convened by Ministry of Environment

7. Other...?

Signature of Screening Note

Nairobi 25 August 2014

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…Lars Bredal……………………………………………………. (name) Danish Mission in Nairobi

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8.6 Preliminary results framework 8.6.1 Green growth - preliminary results framework Thematic Programme

Green Growth and Employment

Thematic Programme Objective

To contribute to inclusive green growth and employment

Impact Indicator To promote sustainable growth and development of MSE (Enhance capacity of MSEs to create employment and reduce poverty among Kenyans)

Promote and safeguard the state of environment for economic growth (Improve environmental planning and governance)

Engagement Title Increased private sector engagement in inclusive green growth facilitated by improved business environment for the private sector.

Outcome indicator Number of engagements in inclusive green growth by private sector organisations as a result of improved business environment, .

Baseline Year 2015 Baselines to be established from the records of Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) which has been running energy and resource efficiency programme targeting the manufacturing sector. Baselines on agribusiness shall be established from the Ministry of Agriculture annual reports.

Target Year 2020 Based on the baseline - tentatively: At least 10% of Kenyan manufacturing sector undertaking one green growth engagement At least 5 agri-business ventures adopting one green growth engagement

Engagement Title Competitiveness of targeted value chains improved, resulting

in creation of sustainable and decent jobs (skilled and semi-skilled) and income generation for especially youth and women.

Outcome indicator Change in competitiveness rating of value chains based on multifactor indices

Baseline Year 2015 Baselines on competitiveness shall be established from the Global Competitiveness Index report prepared by World Economic Forum annually; while baselines on employment shall be drawn from the Economic Survey Report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the Annual Report from Ministry of Devolution & Planning on Youth and Women Employment and Special Interests.

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Target Year 2020 To create 1000 jobs for the youth and women in Kenya. Tentative: At least 20% change in competitiveness of priority value chains At least 5,000 jobs created for youth and women in Kenya

Engagement Title Functional framework for sustainable management and

utilization of natural resources (to support green economic activity)

Outcome indicator Number of policies created, revised and implemented in utilization of natural resources (to support green economic activities)

Baseline Year 2015 Based on the Danida Natural Resource Management Programme experience, policies supportive to green economic growth exist but are not adequately implemented while there are a few which are yet to be developed. Baselines shall be determined from annual reports of the Ministry of Environment Water and Natural Resources and affiliated agencies.

Target Year 2020 Functional frameworks based on the baseline to be developed. At least 5 policies created, revised and implemented in utilization of natural resources (to support green economic activities), At least 5 ASAL county integrated development plans supported in the implementation and sustainable management of natural resources. This is based on the priorities identified in the Kenya National Climate Change Action Plan 2013-2017; in the areas of energy, water, industry, agriculture, forestry, waste and the four enablers viz National Technology Plan, National Performance ad Benefit Measurement, Knowledge Management and Capacity Development and Finance as well as the County development planning and budgeting processes.

8.6.2 Health - preliminary Results Framework Thematic Programme

Implementing the Constitution towards a Prosperous and Equitable Kenya - Support to Health

Thematic Programme Objective

Development Goal: Support Kenya in achieving health policy goal of attaining the highest standard of health in a manner responsive to the needs of the Kenya population.

Immediate Objective: Contributing to improved equitable access to and provision of quality health care in Kenya

Impact Indicator Reduced maternal and child mortality and improved sexual and reproductive health and rights.

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1. Engagement Title

Support to basic health care (Kenya Essential Package for Health, KEPH) - direct funding to health facilities and Essential Medicines and Medical Supplies (EMMS)

Outcome indicator 1) % of mothers delivery by skilled attendance 2) % of children immunised 3) % of facilities without tracer drugs for more than two weeks

Baseline Year 2016 (Using 2008 Kenya Demographic Health Survey, KDHS, baseline (subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 48% of mothers delivered by skilled attendants 2) 77% of children immunised (indicator for equal

access using North-Eastern immunisation rate as the parameter)

3) 18% of facilities without tracer drugs for more than two weeks

Target Year 2020 KDHS* (Subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 70% of mothers delivered by skilled attendants

2) 100% of children immunised (target for equal access using North-Eastern immunisation rate as the parameter)

3) 5% of facilities without tracer drugs for more than two weeks

2. Engagement Title

Support to service delivery systems to improve quality and utilisation of health service

Outcome indicator 1) % of clients satisfied with services 2) Utilisation rate of Outpatient Attendants (OPD) by females 3) % of facilities completing and submitting reports on a timely

basis

Baseline Year 2016 (Using 2008 Kenya Demographic Health Survey, KDHS, baseline (subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 19% of clients satisfied with services 2) 75 % utilisation rate of Outpatient Attendants (OPD) by females 3) 32% of facilities completing and submitting reports on a timely basis

Target Year 2020 (Subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 25% of clients satisfied with services 2) 90% utilisation rate of Outpatient Attendants

(OPD) by females 3) 75% of facilities completing and submitting

reports on a timely basis

3. Engagement Title

Sexual reproductive health and rights Improved

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Outcome indicator 1) Increased no. of women aged 15-49 accessing family planning commodities

2) Adolescent accessing reproductive health commodities

Baseline Year 2016 (Using 2008 Kenya Demographic Health Survey, KDHS, baseline (subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 30% of women aged 15-49 accessing family planning commodities

2) 10 % of health facilities providing youth friendly services

Target Year 2020 (Subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 60% of women aged 15-49 accessing family planning commodities

2) 40% of health facilities providing youth friendly services

4. Engagement Title

Reduce Gender Based Violence

Outcome indicator 1) Reduced % of women suffering from physical gender based violence 2) % of violence cases accessing justice

Baseline Year 2016 (Using 2008 Kenya Demographic Health Survey, KDHS, baseline (subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 39 % of women suffering from physical gender based violence

2) 10 % assessed to have reported and pursued cases

Target Year 2020 (Subject to new KDHS 2015)

1) 30% of women suffering from physical gender based violence

2) 25% assessed to have reported and pursued cases

8.6.3 Governance – preliminary results framework Thematic Programme

Governance

Thematic Programme Objective

To contribute to the implementation of the Constitution, the consolidation of a democratic, accountable, inclusive and participatory political system as well as increased stability in Kenya through the rule of law.

Impact Indicator A democratic political system that is issue based, people centred, result oriented and accountable to the public.

Engagement title Strengthened Public financial management (PFM) systems

Outcome indicator 1. Improved collection, management and use of public funds 2. An efficient, secure, reliable and effective integrated financial management system (IFMIS)

Baseline Budget credibility, accounting, recording and reporting the use of country systems by donors are areas which have deteriorated (Public

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Expenditure Framework and Analysis (PEFA) 2012)

Target Improved Budget credibility, accounting, recording and reporting the use of country systems by donors

Engagement title Devolution capacity, processes and systems strengthened

Outcome indicator Improved quality of legislation drafted by the Executive and the County Governments and passed by the National Assembly, the Senate and County Assemblies

Transparency of Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

Baseline Public Expenditure Framework and Analysis (PEFA) 2012 (last one done for Kenya).

National Assembly Bills Tracker (2014) – 12 laws enacted out of 60 tabled (20%) as at August 15th 2014 by the 11th Parliament (since March 2013.)

4th Quarter 2013/2014 Financial Year indicates an almost nil use of IFMIS by county governments due to staff capacity challenges, connectivity challenges and outright disregard of the system (County Budget Implementation Review Reports published quarterly by the Controller of Budget Reports – Latest Report)

Target Next PEFA Analysis for Kenya preferably the latest done by the end of the programme (2020)

National Assembly Bills Tracker indicating at least 50% of laws tabled are enacted (2020)

Above average compliance with IFMIS by at least 90% of the county governments (County Budget Implementation Review Reports published quarterly by the Controller of Budget Reports – 2019/2020 Report)

Engagement title Strengthened CSO capacity for civic engagement

Outcome indicator 1. % of CSO’s documenting the impact of new laws, sector policies and the budget process

2. Strengthened public finance accountability at county levels.

Baseline Limited capacity of civil society organizations in the counties

Target At least 10 civil society organizations in several counties have their capacity strengthened by 2020, notably regarding:

- Financial management (improved performance) - Local media engagements (high local profile, increased awareness) - County budgeting (holding local duty bearers to account)

Engagement title Improved election cycles and participation in elections

Outcome indicator 1. % of citizens participating in elections 2. % reduction in disputed election results

Baseline Election Petitions adhered to the 6 month post-election timeline but

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appeals went on for another year.

79.7% of eligible voters were registered for the 2013 General elections

Target 90% of eligible voters to be registered for the 2017 General Elections

Judiciary capacity strengthened to complete election petitions within legally stipulated time period of 6 months.

Engagement title Improved access to justice and judicial service

Outcome indicator 1. Percentage increase in number of registered cases in the judiciary 2. Percentage of citizens with confidence in the judiciary’s dispute

resolution of election results.

Baseline 12% of Kenyans fully trust the Judiciary. 19% have no trust at all in the Judiciary (March 2014 Ipsos Synovate Barometer )

Target 60% of Kenyans fully trust the Judiciary. 5% have no trust at all in the Judiciary

Engagement title Strengthened capacity and participation of women in governance

Outcome indicator 1. % of women elected in parliament and county assemblies, 2. % increase in budget allocation to gender mainstreaming efforts

Baseline 19% women elected and nominated into the National Assembly in the 2013 general elections.

No regulations to operationalise the 2/3rds rule on gender parity in public offices. Limited below average adherence by public agencies.

Target 30% women elected and nominated into the National Assembly in the 2017 general elections.

Regulations in place for 2/3rds rule and adhered to by at least 60% of public agencies by 2020

Engagement title Peace, Security and Stability

Outcome indicator 1. Peace and Security Policies in place – Crime Prevention; Conflict Resolution and Peace Building; Community Policing; Anti-Radicalization

2. Percentage of citizens satisfied with the effectiveness of community structures for peacebuilding and conflict resolution

3. Percentage of target populations (minorities) discriminated against by the state and political systems

Baseline Community Policing Policy not in place.

Target Community Policing Policy and regulations in place

At least 10 community policing structures in each of the 47 counties in place

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8.7 Risk management matrix A. Contextual risk Risk factor Like-

lihood Background to assessment Impact Background to assessment Risk response / effect

on programmes

Contextual risk 1: Deteriorating security, including increasing number of terror attacks and conflicts related to land and natural resources, can put programming progress in peril through a combination of terrorism, clan disputes over resources and violent political disputes related to elections in 2017.

Likely Insecurity and instability constitute critical challenges of high relevance to country programming at all levels. Kenya remains politically divided along ethnic lines and tensions from national to village level risks escalating threats to national stability, as seen in the post-election violence in 2007-08.

Major Increasing number of terror attacks, crime and instability pose immediate risks and impacts. on quality of life and human rights. The impact could also includes difficulties in implementing programmes according to plan, attracting investment and getting foreign businesses to engage long-term in the country.

Conflict-mitigation is mainstreamed as a crosscutting issue in to reduce effect on the country programme. Specific measures include support for job opportunities for youth and anti-radicalisation in vulnerable regions. Monitoring of security on the ground with partners is crucial. Programme flexibility and unallocated funds enable response to any deterioration in a timely manner.

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Contextual risk 2: Progress in implementing constitu-tional plans for devolution from central government to 47 local counties can be delayed by conflicts of interest to a point where opportunities for county level involvement of citizens in governance, green growth and health service delivery become difficult to pursue as planned.

Likely Transfer of power to local levels of government involves potential resistance from central levels of government. So far, devolution as prescribed by the Constitution of 2010 appears to progress more or less according to plan. However, political instability could potentially delay this process, inherently vulnerable to conflicts of interest.

Major The potential impact of delays to the process of devolution is major, not least in thematic programmes for health and governance. Interventions to promote equitable access to health service rely on the effective functioning of the new counties and Public Sector Management interventions are designed to facilitate the effective operation of new devolved structures at county level.

The risk is there. But if development partners do not take the risk to engage with support to counties – then will this ambitious reform not have a chance. The country programme will be designed in a robust manner with provision of financial and technical inputs aim at building administrative capacities at local level to assume the new role of the 47 counties. Should delays occur, adequate response will be enabled by flexibility in programme design and regular assessments of the devolution progress.

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B. Programmatic risk Risk factor Like-

lihood Background to assessment Impact Background to assessment Risk response / effect

on programmes

Programmatic risk 1:

Programmatic risk primarily relate high levels of corruption. The country programme refrains from core budget support but provides on-budget funding for specific aspects of health service provision.

Likely Cases of corruption in public administration receive considerable attention in Kenyan media with no immediate signs of case numbers reducing or cases becoming less serious. On the positive side, there are encouraging signs of improvements in public sector management standards and past and on-going reforms are expected to contribute to further improvements. Yet fiscal decentralisation will warrant close attention as county governments establish and operationalise the county financial management systems.

Major Fighting corruption and making the Danida support robust is a country programme priority for several reasons of principle, not least the impact of misappropriation of funds in restricting the intended benefits enjoyed by potential recipients of pro-poor development programmes.

Misappropriation of funds is met with zero tolerance response and fiduciary risk is addressed by governance support for a range of public and civil society anti-corruption measures. However, the primary risk response is to support improved administrative systems to prevent misuse of funds in the long term. Monitoring of on-budget support for devolved health services will be stepped up by a new system of Rolling Audits whereby signs of misuse of funds are detected and acted upon early.

Programmatic risk 2: Lack of effective coordination between donors and between implementing partners at local level also constitutes a potential

Likely Donor coordination remains a significant challenge involving considerable duplication of effort and transaction costs. Coordination between implementing partners is also found to have potential for

Major Poor coordination means less promotion of inclusive green growth for beneficiaries. Competition for resources and narrow agendas risk standing in the way of achieving programme results and

Where possible, programmes are funded jointly with partners and aligned to partner structures and coordination mechanisms. Delegated cooperation is

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programmatic barrier to achieving results as planned.

improvements. optimising synergies between perspectives of partners with comparative advantages.

pursued to improve coordination and reduce admin burdens for all.

C. Institutional risk Risk factor Like-

lihood Background to assessment Impact Background to assessment Risk response / effect

on programmes

Institutional risk 1: Even with timely implementation of the Constitution, limited administrative capacity of the new counties remains a challenge. The challenge has elements of fiduciary risk but also basic issues of human resource capacity to deliver services as foreseen by the Constitution.

Likely Broad consensus on the rationale for devolution does not alter the fact that capacity needs to be developed in time for transfer of responsibilities from central government. Prospects for capacity development of counties vary significantly between wealthy and vulnerable regions of the country.

Major Capacity shortage could have significant impact for service delivery and realisation of pro-poor development programmes. Existing inequalities - found in preparatory analysis for the country programming exercise to be on the increase – could be exacerbated by these regional variations in county admin capacity.

Planned mitigating efforts such as financial management training may strengthen capacity, but is unlikely to eliminate institutional risk, particularly in most needy regions of the country. Close monitoring of inequality trends are of the essence. Programme flexibility allows for responsive efforts in vulnerable regions.

Institutional risk 2: Unclear division of roles played by civil society vs. government and discord between donors and government and development partners may also challenge progress and results

Un-likely

Different perspectives of partners and stakeholders in programme implementation can cause delay and conflict. Conflicts of interest can relate to the role of partners or issues such as political advocacy by civil society, religion or minority rights.

Major The impact of unclear roles and conflicts between parties can be delays in implementation or in the worst case a collapse of planned interventions. A deterioration of relations between government and development partners could compromise implementation.

Clear specification of respective roles in implementation may help prevent these conflicts. Where conflicts do arise, a response of honest dialogue should be explored at length before programmes are shelved.

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