NAKED ROI

JOHN BAGULEYInternational Fundraising

Consultancy

CHARLIE KEEPFreedom from Torture

FUNDRAISING TODAY

RECRUITMENT CHANNELS

• Direct Mail.• Inserts.• Print Adverts.• Door to Door.• Face to Face.• Events.• Social Media.

GENERATIONAL COHORTS

Age Cohort Media Preferred

SENIORS 1901 - 1924 Letter

SILENTS 1925 - 1945 Letter

BOOMERS 1946 - 1964 Letter. Phone. Email

GEN X 1965 - 1980 Email. Internet. Phone.

GEN Y 1981 - 2000 Internet. Email. Twitter. MOBILE

BILLIONAIRES

• Bill & Melinda Gates – The Giving Pledge

• GAVI

• Fundraisers?

SOCIAL MEDIA

• Is it working for you?• How do you know?

• Integrated?• Parallel?• Stand-alone?• All of the above?

“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.”

Anon

Basic ROI

• How much you get over how much you spend

• Important to look at 1 year, end year and long term

• Results conditioned by issues of volume

An example

• We sold £25,000 of raffle tickets

• Printing and postage cost £600

• Prizes cost £1,500• It took 1/8 of a

fundraiser’s time to do it - £3,500

• So:

An example

• We made £19,400 (net)• And the ROI was:

25000/(600+1500+3500)= 4.46

Or:• If we don’t include the

fundraiser’s time = 11.9

ROI to LTV

• LTV is “ROI plus”• All giving set against all

costs• The emphasis is on

finding ways to show how the recruitment cost has been recouped

• How long and how much?

LIFETIME VALUE?

• Total net value gained over the lifetime of their giving.

• But it also needs to account for activists etc.

• Developing profiles of your typical supporter behaviour patterns.

WHY IS LTV SO IMPORTANT?

• Demonstrating to non-fundraisers why donor recruitment and development is structured your way.

• Honestly assessing whether what you are doing is really working in the long term.

• Giving confidence to ask for investment in recruitment (or deciding its not worth it).

GETTING STARTED

Sample a number. Look at their behaviour. How long/how

much/patterns.

If working with very small numbers it may be all you need

HOW TO USE IT?• There’s no point doing

lots of maths if there’s no way to actually use it.

• Comparing options for recruitment – what kind of supporters do you get from what kind of activity?

• What activities increase LTV, what may diminish it?

HOW TO USE IT - PARTII

• The key thing is to have a method that compares like with like

• Look for important differences, but think about confounding factors:

• EG the probability of recruits from different sources giving legacies may be important

• But if there’s a 30 year average age difference, then its misleading on its own

SO HOW IS LTV CALCULATED?

• On a macro or micro level is usually most informative.

• IE either looking at a single group of recruits over time.

• OR evaluating top level aggregate values across the database.

• Different uses for these approaches.

SOME GENTLE MATHS

• LTV net:z(n)-(x+y(n))

• LTV as a ratio:Z(n) / x + y (n)

BASED ON VARIABLES:

• N = mean donor longevity (period)

• Z = mean value (period)• X = recruitment cost

(unit)• Y = retention cost

(period)

SOME MORE EXCITING MATHS

• Mean donor longevity:

x

xxpn )(

“I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free.”

MICHELANGELO

QUESTIONS?

John Baguley www.ifc.tc

Charlie Keepwww.torturecare.org

THANK YOU!