name: status and plans 4 th name science working group meeting january 9-10, 2003 name homepage:

NAME: STATUS AND PLANS

4th NAME Science Working Group Meeting January 9-10, 2003

NAME Homepage:http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

OUTLINE

1. OVERVIEW

• What is NAME?

• Balance of Activities (CLIVAR; GEWEX)

• Timeline

2. STATUS AND ISSUES

• NAME Project Structure

• NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies

• NAME Field Campaign

WHAT IS NAME?

NAME is an internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR – GEWEX process study aimed at determining the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation over North America.

NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Planning --------------|

Preparations --------------|

Data Collection - - - ----------------|

Principal Research ----------------------------------|

Data Management -----------------------------------------|

HYPOTHESISThe NAMS provides a physical

basis for determining the degree ofpredictability of warm seasonprecipitation over the region.

Intraseasonal Variability

Boundary Forcing?

Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

OBJECTIVES:Better understanding andsimulation of:

• warm season convective processes in complex terrain (TIER I); • intraseasonal variability of the monsoon (TIER II);• response of warm season circulation and precipitation to slowly varying boundary conditions (SST, soil moisture) (TIER III);• monsoon evolution and variability (TIER I, II, III).

NAME IMPLEMENTATION

• Empirical and modeling studies that carry forward the joint PACS/GAPP Warm Season Precipitation Initiative (2000 onward), and initiate new elements.

• NAME Field Campaign (JJAS 2004) including build-up, field, analysis and modeling phases.

NAME STATUS• March 2000: NAME is endorsed by the WCRP/CLIVAR Variability of

the American Monsoons (VAMOS) Panel as the North American Implementation of VAMOS.

• June 2001: The US CLIVAR Pan American Panel formally recommended that US CLIVAR join with US GEWEX/GAPP and VAMOS to implement NAME as a warm season process study of the North American Monsoon.

• May 2002: NAME is included in the GEWEX/GAPP Science and Implementation plan, with emphasis on topographic influences on precipitation, hydrology and water resources, and land-surface memory processes.

• July 2002: NAME is presented to the US CLIVAR SSC, which unanimously endorsed NAME as a US CLIVAR activity and a Process Study under the PanAm Panel.

P a n A m e r ic a n C l im a te S tu d ie s

P A C S I n t e r e s t in N A M E

• T o o b t a i n a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d m o r e r e a l i s t i c s im u la t io n o f t h e N A M S a n d i t s in t e r a n n u a l v a r i a b i l i t y ( t h r o u g h P A C S /G A P P W a r m S e a s o n P r e c ip i t a t i o n I n i t i a t iv e )

• T o im p r o v e t h e o b s e r v a t io n a l b a s i s t o u n d e r s t a n d k e y o c e a n , a t m o s p h e r e a n d la n d p r o c e s s e s c o n t r ib u t in g t o v a r i a b i l i t y o f s u m m e r c l im a t e ( t h r o u g h N A M E - 2 0 0 4 )

• T o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t o b s e r v e d c o n n e c t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e l e a d i n g p a t t e r n s o f c l i m a t e v a r i a b i l i t y ( e .g E N S O , M J O ) a n d t h e c o n t in e n t a l - s c a le p r e c ip i t a t io n p a t t e r n a r e c a p t u r e d in g lo b a l a n d r e g io n a l m o d e l s ( A M I P a n d N A M A P a r e im p o r t a n t f i r s t s t e p s )

• T o a d v a n c e t h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f t h e c l im a t e o b s e r v in g s y s t e m f o r N o r t h A m e r ic a , in i t i a l ly in t h e s o u t h w e s t e r n U S , M e x ic o a n d C e n t r a l A m e r i c a .

• T o f o s t e r c o l la b o r a t iv e i n v e s t ig a t i o n s w i t h a s s e s s m e n t r e s e a r c h e r s t o d e v e l o p n e w c l i m a t e in f o r m a t i o n p r o d u c t s f o r s t a k e h o ld e r s ( t h r o u g h 2 0 0 4 A O )

US CLIVAR PAN AMERICAN PROCESS STUDY TIMELINES


C L I V A R S S C R e c o m m e n d a t io n s

• S c ie n t i f i c– O c e a n P r o c e s s e s – D e t e r m in e r o l e o f o c e a n ic p r o c e s s e s ( e .g . r e g u la t io n

o f m o is t u r e s u p p ly ) in t h e d y n a m ic s o f t h e m o n s o o n . I n c r e a s e e m p h a s i s o n r e le v a n t m a r in e d a t a t o s u p p o r t m o n s o o n m o d e l in g a n dt h e in t e r p r e t a t io n o f c o n t in e n t a l o b s e r v a t io n s .

– L a n d S u r f a c e P r o c e s s e s – E n h a n c e la n d s u r f a c e o b s e r v a t io n s a n d m o d e l in g in c lu d in g la n d d a t a a s s im i la t io n .

– M o d e l in g – D e v e lo p c lo u d m o d e l in g s t r a t e g y t o s t u d y p r e c ip i t a t io n o v e r c o m p le x t e r r a in a n d t h e b e h a v io r o f c o n v e c t io n o v e r w a r m c o n t in e n t s , k e y i s s u e s in m o d e l d e v e lo p m e n t .

– O t h e r M o n s o o n s - C o o r d in a t e a n a ly s i s a n d m o d e l in g a c t iv i t i e s w i th o n g o in g s t u d ie s o f t h e S o u t h A m e r ic a n a n d A s ia n m o n s o o n s .

NAME RESPONSE TO SSC9 CONCERNS

• Land Surface Processes:– Soil Moisture Field Campaign (NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program)– NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group (quarterly newsletter)

• Modeling:– NAME modeling-observations team – NAMAP

• NAME 2004 Field Campaign:– Tier 1 Observations

Event logging gauge network (phases 1 and 2 installed)NSF Overview Document (windprofiler/radar/sounding network) submitted

– Ocean ProcessesNOAA Research Vessel Ron Brown / UNAM (PUMA)2 Buoys in Central GOC

– NAME Roadshow

• Other Monsoons:– NAME-CEOP linkage– NAME-MESA linkage

NAME MEETINGS

NAME SWG-1 Meeting, IRI, Palisades NY (Oct. 2000)NAME SWG-2 Meeting, SIO, La Jolla, CA (Oct. 2001)NAME Workshop at VPM5, San Jose, Costa Rica (Mar. 2002)NAME SWG-3 Meeting, GMU, Fairfax, VA (Oct. 2002)NAME SWG-4 Meeting, Boulder, CO (Jan. 2003)NAME Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability Workshop,

Greenbelt, MD (Mar. 2003)Ocean Component of NAME Workshop (NW Mexico, Spring 2003)NAME Tier 1 Observations


P A C S N A M E F u n d i n g P la n s

• C o n t in u e S u p p o r t o f N A W a r m S e a s o n P r e c ip i t a t io n S t u d ie s ( $ 1 .5 M a n n u a l ly )

– 2 3 p r o p o s a l s t o t a l in g $ 2 .4 M in r e v ie w ; N o v e m b e r P a n e l ; D e c e m b e r -F e b r u a r y n e w s t a r t s

• S u p p o r t 2 0 0 4 N A M E F ie ld E x p e r im e n t ( $ 1 M d u r in g f i e ld p h a s e , $ 0 .5 M /y e a r f o r a n a ly s i s a n d m o d e l in g )

– A n n o u n c e m e n t o f O p p o r t u n i ty to b e i s s u e d e a r ly D e c e m b e r– P r o p o s a ls in M a r c h– M a y - J u ly n e w s t a r t s

• W o r k w i t h in N O A A t o s e c u r e r e q u ir e d a ir c r a f t a n d s h ip t i m e– 6 6 s h ip d a y s in i t ia l ly a l lo c a t e d , a p p r o x . 5 0 d a y s o n s t a t io n

GEWEX / GAPP Components

Predictability in LandSurface Processes

Hydrometerology Orographic Systems

Predictability inMonsoonal Systems

Integration of Predictability IntoPrediction Systems

Testing of Models in Special Climate Regimes

CEOP: Data and Studies for Model Development

Use of Predictions forWater Resource

Management

GAPP - NAME Plan

Goal:

To study the predictability of warm season precipitation over North America, with emphasis on the role of land surface.

NAME Contributions to GAPP:

• Fine resolution, gauge-only and satellite/gauge merged precipitation products (e.g. for LDAS, Regional Reanalysis and model validation studies);

• The role of land in the onset and intensity of the monsoon;

• The role of NAMS in the variability of the water budget components over the US and Mexico;

• Improved understanding of summer orographic precipitation processes.

GAPP - NAME Plan

GAPP - NAME PlanGAPP Contributions to NAME:

• Improved land surface models and coupled land-atmosphere models

• LDAS in Tiers 1 and 2

• CEOP

• Regional Reanalysis

• Studies of rainfall-runoff relations

• Precipitation dataset

• Linkage with operations thru NOAA Core Project

GAPP - NAME Plan

Budget:

• $ 1M in PACS/GAPP warm season precipitation initiative

NAME IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES

ISSUE:• Significant progress has been made in developing implementation plans for

NAME. However, the overall level of agency support is uncertain, and the

relative roles of CLIVAR and GEWEX in NAME must be clarified.

QUESTIONS:• What are the implications of the delay in the upcoming NAME solicitation?

(e.g. March 2003 proposals and November 2003 starts)?

• What are the needs of each PI in order to have sufficient time to prepare for NAME 2004?

• Are we addressing CLIVAR / GEWEX scientific interests in NAME? • How do we develop a strategy for entraining NSF, NASA and DOE PI’s in

NAME?

NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE

• 3-Pronged

– NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus)

– VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field Implementation, Data Management, Logistics)

• NAME Forecast Operations Center

– NAME Program Management

NAME SCIENCE WORKING GROUP• NAME science is managed by a SWG that has been approved

by the CLIVAR/VAMOS and CLIVAR Pan American panels in consultation with U.S. GEWEX.

• The SWG develops and leads research to achieve NAME objectives

• The NAME SWG members:

Jorge Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica Rene Lobato, IMTA, MexicoHugo Berbery, UMD Jose Meitin, NSSLRit Carbone, NCAR Chet Ropelewski, IRIMiguel Cortez, SMN Jae Schemm, CPCArt Douglas, Creighton Univ. Siegfried Schubert, NASAMichael Douglas, NSSL Jim Shuttleworth, UAZDave Gutzler, UNM Dave Stensrud, NSSLWayne Higgins, CPC (Chair) Chidong Zhang, RSMAS

http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

Short-Term Support

Daily weather briefings for NAME

Joint US/Mexico weather discussions

Arrange airport logistics from TIA

Intraoffice cluster network

Relative real-time MM5, FSL Workstation Eta, Ensembles run on site

NAME FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTER

[Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

Organizational Involvement

SMN Rotational Team

WFO’s in Tucson (lead), Phoenix, Flagstaff, El Paso, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, San Diego

NCEP Hydrologic Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center

NAME FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTER

[Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

NAME Special Session 27th CDWNAME Special Session 27th CDW

VAMOS Programs Project Office

NAME Field Operations ProcessNAME Field Operations Process

FcstFcst OperationOperationCenterCenter

compositioncomposition

NAME SWGNAME P IsOperations Staff

responsibilitiesresponsibilities

Preserve NAME objectivesMission selectionMission executionLogistics support

Mission Mission SelectionSelection

NAME SWGNAME P IsOperations Staff

participantsparticipantsinputinput

ForecastsWx productsStatus• aircraft• systems• staffReportsComms

outputoutput

Mission decisionMission scientistAirborne scientistFlight operationsnotifications

NAME COORDINATION

ISSUE:• The NAME Project structure is 3-pronged (SWG, NAME Project Office,

Agencies). Interactions between each component of NAME must be improved. Linkages to operational meteorology in the U.S. and Mexico, and to the broader community need to be identified and developed.

QUESTIONS:• Is the SWG engaging the NAME Project Office and vice-versa? • What does the SWG want the Forecast Operations Center to do during NAME 2004 and beyond?

ACTIONS:• Draft NAME 2004 Timeline;• Draft NAME Data Management Plan;

NAME AND MEXICO’S PARTICIPATION

ISSUE: • NAME would like to encourage Mexican participation beyond that during

SWAMP-90 and SWAMP/EMVER-93.

QUESTIONS: • How do we increase the circle of influence in Mexico beyond those already involved in NAME (e.g. operational meteorologists with the Air Force, Navy, Electricity Commission, PEMEX, and Civil Aviation)?• What can NAME do that Mexico will sustain after the field phase?

ACTIONS:• Organize team and develop strawman for NAME Roadshow

NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES

GOALS:

• Provide guidance on needs and priorities for NAME 2004 field observations.

• Identify sustained observational requirements for climate models.

• Identify additional process studies necessary to reduce uncertainties in climate models.

NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON ASSESSMENT PROJECT (NAMAP)

STRATEGY:

• NAMAP Phase I (D. Gutzler, Chair)– Document ability of models (GCM’s; RMM’s) to simulate NAMS (JJAS 1990). – Protocols (domain, boundary conditions, output format, simulated variables) defined by

the modeling community during 2001.– Hosted by the NAME Project Office at UCAR/JOSS:

http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namip

• NAMAP is currently unfunded and voluntary. Current Participants:– Liang (MM5, WRF) Schemm (NCEP MRF)– Mo (RSM) Schubert (NASA NSIPP)– Mitchell / Yang (ETA) Liz Ritchie / Dave Gutzler (MM5)– Kanamitsu (ECPC/RSM) Peter Fawcett– Fox Rabinovitz (NASA Hybrid)– Hahmann (MM5)– Castro / Pielke (RAMS)

• Results are in progress.

NAME MODELING-OBS WORKSHOP

GOAL:• Refine specific research objectives and plans / priorities of the team.

QUESTIONS:PROGRAMMATIC:

• How can the teams best contribute to NAME 2004 planning efforts?• How can the team leverage off of existing modeling, data assimilation and

predictability activities?SCIENTIFIC:

• What are the land processes that should guide the modeling approach? • How sensitive is lateral forcing of the North American monsoon by the Eastern

Pacific ITCZ? • How will cloud resolving models help with the large-scale environment that is

critical for promoting convection?

NAME MODELING-OBS TEAM <emphasis>

Develop the research strategy consistent with NAME Objectives <diurnal cycle of convection in complex coastal terrain>

Define how the team will complement on-going modeling regional mesoscale models <explicit convection, mesoscale

observations of surges, etc.> global models <mean diurnal cycle>

Contribute to NAME needs for weather/climate prediction <parameterization of convection, cloud-radiation interaction, effects of terrain>

Regional Analysis and Data Impact and Prediction Experiments in support of NAME

Kingtse Mo (CPC), Wayne Higgins (CPC), Fedor Mesinger (UCAR/EMC),

Hugo Berbery (UMD) and Ken Mitchell (EMC)

OBJECTIVES:

1) To provide real time monitoring of NA regional climate with a focus on the hydrologic cycle during and after the NAME field campaign

Technology transfer of RR and RCDAS to CPC/NCEP

2) To perform global and regional data assimilation with/without NAME data

Global: CDAS II with and without NAME Data

Regional: RCDAS with and without the NAME data

3) To perform forecast experiments highlighting NAME data impact

Global: NCEP GFS out to day 45 from CDAS II with / without NAME Data

Regional: Short range forecasts (SREF) with / without the NAME data

GOALS: To improve precipitation forecasts at diurnal/daily time scales (e.g. QPF); to improve climate forecasts of droughts / floods.

(1) Linkage to operational meteorology / NCEP Centers

- Involve operational (NWS) meteorologists (NAME SWG; NAME FO); - NAME-related exchange visits between NWS and SMN;- Postdocs from Mexican SMN at NCEP during NAME 2004, to work with HPC

forecasters and EMC data assimilation experts; - Involve EMC personnel (e.g. physical parameterization experts) in NAME

Modeling-Obs Teams (specific needs in GFS, ETA). (2) Quantifyable Goals

- Develop year-by-year performance metrics that are directly relevant to NCEP Centers (HPC, CPC).

- Need for different types of metrics - NAME 2004 Field Experiment- NAME Modeling - Improved warm season precipitation prediction

- Short term goal: diurnal/daily timescales (e.g. QPF)- Long term goal: monthly/seasonal time scales (e.g. RPSS)

IMPROVING THE NCEP-NAME LINKAGE

Activity Focus Status PI’s

Model-Obs Team diurnal cycle Schubert/Moncrief

NAMAP 1990 monsoon In progress; unfunded Gutzler

Subseasonal Variability Model uncertainties To be proposed – NASA Schubert

Regional CDAS and NAME Data Impact

NAME data assimilation

Forecast experiment

To be proposed - OGP Mo / Higgins / Berbery

Vegetation modeling Vegetation impact on prediction

Funded - OGP Shuttleworth/Liu

Moisture budget of IAS Moisture sources for the GP Funded - OGP Zhang/Albrecht/Enfield

Moisture budget of Tiers 1-3

Moisture surges in the Gulf of California

Funded - OGP Higgins/Yang

Daily precipitation analysis (US_Mexico)

Real-time monitoring Funded - OGP Higgins/Shi

Diurnal cycle and Precipitation

Linkage to TRMM/GPM Funded - OGP Arkin/Xie

Hydrologic predictability LDAS in Tiers 1 &2

Role of land surface

Funded - OGP Lettenmaier/Cavasos

Surface runoff Structures of precipitation Funded - OGP Shuttleworth/Gochis

SUMMARY OF NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES

blue: funded before SWG-3; red: funded since SWG-3

NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN

Radar/Profiling/Radiosondes

Enhanced Precipitation

Gauge NetworkR.V. Ron Brown

Radiosondes/PIBALS

Platform / Data Plan Status Contact

Raingauges (event) See map Funded - OGP Shuttleworth/Watts

Raingauges (simple) See map To be proposed - OGP Lobato/Higgins

Radiosondes (Mexico) See map To be proposed - OGP A.Douglas/Cortez

PIBALS/radiosondes See map To be proposed - OGP M.Douglas

Wind profile/radar/ sounding

See map To be proposed – OGP/NSF/NASA

Carbone / Johnson / Moncrieff et al.

Ron Brown (atm) See map To be proposed - OGP Fairall et al.

Ron Brown (ocean), buoy Upper-ocean structures To be proposed Paulson

Puma To be proposed Magaña

ASIS buoy Surface waves and fluxes To be proposed Ocampo-Torres

Aircraft (NOAA P-3) See map To be proposed - OGP M. Douglas/Cotton/

Jorgenson

Hydrometeorology (Mexico, AZ)

Integrated hydrological network

To be proposed Gochis et al.

Soil moisture sensors

Aircraft (NASA DC-10)

Remote sensing validation To be proposed - NASA Lettenmaier/Jackson/ Shuttleworth

Vegetation To be proposed M.Douglas/Watts

Lightning network See map To be proposed - NSF Peterson

GPS humidity See map To be proposed Hahmann

SUMMARY OF NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN OBSERVATIONS

NAME Field Campaign Observations

1. Need repeat of previous table, but with estimated costs and priority (from SWG) for Mike

NAME Tier-1 Objectives1. How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west

slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of moisture and convection? (low-level circulation)

2. What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall variability (e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)? (moisture transport)

3. What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental is convective development preferred? (diurnal cycle)

4. What are the dominant sources of precipitable moisture for monsoon precipitation over southwestern North America? (moisture sources)

5. What are the fluxes of energy and water from the land surface to the atmosphere across the core monsoon region, and how do these fluxes evolve in time during the warm season? (land surface)

Tier 1 Objective Project1. low-level circulation • PIBALS (M.Douglas)

• Upper-air soundings (A.Douglas)• radar/wind profiler (Carbone)• Ron Brown (Fairall), Puma (Magana)

2. Moisture transport • GOC moisture budget (Higgins) • sounding networks (M.Douglas/A.Douglas/Carbone)• NOAA P-3 (M.Douglas; Cotton/Jorgensen) • GPS (Hahmann)

3. diurnal cycle • satellite rainfall estimate (Arkin)• raingauges – event logging(Shuttleworth)• sounding/radar/profiler/lightning network (Carbone/Douglas/Peterson)

4. moisture sources • GOC moisture budget (Higgins) • sounding network (M.Douglas/A.Douglas/Carbone) • buoys (Ocampo-Torres/Paulson)• land surface flux?

5. land surface • surface runoff / streamflow(Shuttleworth) • vegetation (Shuttleworth/M.Douglas)• soil moisture (Lettenmaier/Jackson/Shuttleworth)

PIBAL SUPPLEMENT AND REASONS

Douglas et al. (2003) Precise configuration depends on wind profiler / radar / sounding network that the PIBALS will support.

Maintenance of the upper-air sounding network (2002)Operate twice-daily observations (May-Nov) in 8 sites (2002)Operate all once-daily observation sites at 12 UTC (2002) Observers training (2002)

UPPER-AIR SOUNDING NETWORK

In OperationAfter 2003

Figures adapted from Fuller and Stensrud (MWR, 2000) and Brenner (MWR, 1974)

Proposed Location of the R/V Ron Brown During NAME IOP

Addressing NAME Tier-1 Science

• Surge origins

• Sources of moisture and transports

• Precipitation statistics including diurnal cycle

• Structure of southern end of GC LLJ

• Surge coupling to easterly waves

• Surface fluxes/Ocean coupling

Potential NAME ALDF network geometry

= Potential ALDF site

= Current NALDN site • 5-station Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network

• TOA/DF technique,

300 km

REQUEST FOR THE NOAA P-3 (M. Douglas, PI)

Objective: To measure moisture influx into the NAME tier 1, esp from southern GOC. Technique: Repeatable tracks to provide comparisons with in-situ data [ship and ground-based], model-based analyses and climatology. Frequent profiles (every ~5-6 minutes) between ~100m ASL and 1.5-2 km ASL [50-60 soundings per flight]. Unprecedented spatial resolution across the inflow region at low levels.

Number of flights: ~10 flights / ~7.5h per flight. Flights need not be flown in sequence. Same time each day to avoid complications due to diurnal cycle.

List of flights: 2 enhanced flux flights, 2 suppresed flux flights, 6 "normal" flux flights, 2 Gulf section flights

PHASE 2 Enhancements ‘03

PH 1 Event Raingage

Isotope Collector

PH 2 Event Raingage

SMN Automatic Met Station

Proposed RadarSite

NAME Simple Raingauge Network IMTA INSTITUTO MEXICANO DE TECNOLOGÍA DEL AGUA

•The network is sparse in large portions of the core and peripheral monsoon regions

• NAME will install ~1600 gauges in these regions as a cooperative network to improve monitoring, prediction and assessments.

• Estimates of the moisture budget of the IAS region are in progress using this network.

• These estimates will be combined with estimates over the core (and peripheral) monsoon regions (based on a new network of in situ soundings) to quantify the Q flux-precipitation relationship over the entire region (inc. U.S.).

Radiosonde

NCDC Buoys

PACS SONET

Zhang et al 2001

MOISTURE BUDGET OF THE INTRA AMERICAS SEAMOISTURE BUDGET OF THE INTRA AMERICAS SEA

Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAME

Walnut GulchTucson

Three-dimensional perspective in the NAME region looking north from

Hermosillo to Tucson

Field Campaign Elements Temporary in-situ soil moisture networks Aircraft and satellite mapping Intensive sampling concurrent with aircraft mission

Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAMETemporary in situ soil moisture network

• Modeled after the current AMSR Cal/Val project, which involves:– four watersheds (150-650 km2), with existing data collection

infrastructure, including Walnut Gulch– observing 5-cm soil moisture and temperature at all sites with

the “Vitel Hydraprobe”

• Establish a new site in Mexico using these principles

RG# Easting (m)

Northing (m)

Elev. (m)

3 581265 3509566 1253 13 586181 3509986 1327 14 585495 3506970 1373 18 586778 3507884 1358 20 587543 3504739 1519 28 590669 3509803 1369 34 591018 3507252 1420 37 593354 3505864 1407 40 593449 3510092 1392 57 596162 3512115 1462 69 603982 3515260 1640 70 604327 3514015 1632 76 582707 3509391 1312 89 596373 3513731 1483 92 581955 3511576 1251 100 593548 3504309 1436 Profile Sites

46 595346 3508470 1440 82 600225 3511469 1521 83 589765 3512232 1367 Off Watershed Sites

400 582120 3518828 1266 SP 577947 3503457 1215

Walnut Gulch Soil Moisture Sites

Aircraft and satellite mapping

NASA P-3B should be available July 15 –August 15, 2004

Satellite sensors: AMSR and TMI

Aircraft sensors: 2DSTAR (L band next generation ESTAR)

PSR or AESMIR (AMSR simulators)

Aircraft Mission:

15 flight dates

5 hours per day

50x100 km areas• Walnut Gulch

• Mexican site

4 flightlines


Intensive sampling concurrent with an aircraft mission

• Purpose: to calibrate the in situ sensor network and to fill in the spatial domain

• Requirements:– two teams (in Walnut Gulch and

Mexico) with strong partnerships with local (Arizona and Mexican) institutions

– a sampling strategy similar to that developed for previous NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program field studies (e.g. SMEX02 and SMEX03)

– manual sampling using Thetaprobes with data loggers


David J. GochisChristopher J. WattsW. James ShuttleworthDennis LettenmaierTereza CavazosJaime Garatuza-PayanBart Nijssen

NAMEHYDROMETEOROLOGICALWORKINGGROUP

D. Gochis C.Watts

W. Shuttleworth D. Lettenmaier

T. Cavazos J Garatuza-Payan

Bart Nijssen

Connecting the Hydrologic Cycle…Exploration of Terrestrial Linkages

Leverage on the body of scientific and human dimensions research currently proposed under NAME to:

Improve hydrometerological and hydroclimatic process knowledge and contribute to dynamic management of water resources in the NAM region.

Lingering Uncertainties… How are seasonal and shorter term, higher-order

precipitation characteristics related to streamflow? Given the uncertainty in precipitation observations,

what confidence is there in existing estimations of runoff fractions? What fraction is recycled to the atmosphere?

What influences do the meso-climates, terrain and vegetation of the SMO, the Mexican plateau and the coastal regions have on hydrological cycling/partitioning?

NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN

QUESTIONS:• How should we coordinate proposals for NAME 2004? Are resources adequate

to fulfill objectives? • Has the reservation for the Ron Brown been made? What happens if the Ron

Brown is not available? Are there other possible approaches (NAVY? Mexican research vessel? Chartered ship?)

• Has the reservation for the NOAA P-3 been made? • Is there enough emphasis on measurements of multiple variables at one site (e.g. for getting the surface energy budget defined)? Where are the

representative locations?• What are the missing components in our network (surface flux, ocean, …)? • Are there needs for asset deployment on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Mexico

border?

ACTION ITEMS:• Plan for coordinating proposals • Update budget for NAME observing system • Draft Timeline and Data Management Plan for NAME 2004


R e c o m m e n d a t io n s f o r 2 0 0 4 P r o p o s a l s

• P r io r i t i z e a n d c o o r d in a t e p r o j e c t s a m o n g P I s

• S u b m it t o a p p r o p r ia t e a g e n c ie s ; d iv e r s i f y f u n d in g b a s e

• E a c h p r o p o s a l s h o u ld :– C l e a r l y a r t i c u l a t e t h e q u e s t io n s /h y p o t h e s e s t o b e e v a lu a t e d

– I d e n t i f y c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h o t h e r o b s e r v a t io n a l p r o j e c t s , p a r t i c u l a r ly f o r m e r g e d d a t a s e t s

– O u t l in e p la n n e d u s e s o f d a t a s e t s , g iv i n g s p e c i f i c s o f a n a ly s i s / m o d e l i n g• A n a l y s i s o f p h e n o m e n a / p r o c e s s e s• S a t e l l i t e o b s e r v a t i o n v a l i d a t i o n• M o d e l s im u l a t i o n v a l i d a t i o n• M o d e l p r o c e s s p a r a m e t e r i z a t i o n e v a l u a t i o n , e t c .

NAME DELIVERABLES

• Coupled climate models capable of predicting North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance;

• Infrastructure to observe and monitor the North American monsoon system;

• More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability;

• Contributions to the assessment of climate variability and long-term climate change in the North American monsoon region;

• Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across the Americas.


F r o m R e s e a r c h t o O p e r a t io n s

• D e f in e o b s e r v in g s y s t e m r e q u ir e m e n t s– I d e n t i f y g a p s i n n e tw o r k s– I m p l e m e n t a n d e v a lu a t e o b s e r v a t i o n a l e n h a n c e m e n t s– V e r i f y s a t e l l i t e d a t a s e t s– T e s t n e w t e c h n o l o g i e s ( e .g . a e r o s o n d e a t m o s p h e r i c p r o f i l e s )

• E v a lu a t e m o d e l c a p a b i l i t i e s– C o m p a r e a n d v a l id a t e m o d e l s im u l a t io n s a n d p r e d ic t io n s– T e s t a n d e v a l u a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f p r o c e s s e s w i t h i n m o d e l s (w i t h C l im a t e

P r o c e s s M o d e l i n g T e a m s )

• D e v e lo p n e w c l im a t e p r o d u c t s– E x p lo r e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r u s e o f c l i m a t e in f o r m a t io n– D e f in e in f o r m a t io n p r o d u c t s t o m e e t u s e r n e e d s

PERFORMANCE METRICS(NAME 2004 Field Experiment)

1. Pre-Field Phase• Development of contingency, back-up, and flexible observation strategies;• Development of an agreed field management and decision making structure to ensure

implementation of flexible observation strategies;• % of the instrument systems design completed N months before deployment (for each

set of instruments, i.e. raingauges, radars, profilers, sondes);• % of the instrument systems laboratory tested or certified N months before

deployment;• % of the instrument systems in place and field tested in the NAME domain by some

date before the start of the field phase.

2. Field Phase • % of successful observations by instrument system;• % of time (days?) that all observational systems are up and working;• % of observations recorded and sent to NAME archive.

3. Post-Field Phase • % of data received that is archived and documented;• % of archived data available to NAME community by observational system;• Degree to which observations from various systems are available in compatible

formats.

PERFORMANCE METRICS(Forecast Skill Scores)

• Develop milestones for new / improved warm season precipitation forecasts, separate from the NAME 2004 experiment. • Develop new performance metrics tied to these forecasts:

- comparisons of basic monthly and seasonal means with observations;- obs-vs-simulated frequency distribution of rainfall intensity; - quality of ensemble predictions (forecast reliability; freq of extreme events);- new products (NA forecasts; NA drought monitor; International Hazards)

• Develop “quantitative” future performance goals

• Explicitly tie these to performance measures in operational meteorology (e.g. NWS HPC and CPC).

- QPF (day 1, day 2, day 3) - 6-10 day forecast skill (Heidke)- monthly and seasonal forecast skill

• NAME SWG needs to develop a strategic plan for this. Workshop needed?

PIBAL SITE OBJECTIVE CLOUD PROBLEMS?

UNDISTURBED BY TOPOG?

CO-LOCATED WITH OTHER OBS

PRIORITY

Needles, AZ Heat Low low ~yes no moderate

Ajo, AZ Heat Low/surge low so-so no lower

Phoenix, AZ Heat low low ~ok Raob (SRP) moderate

Mexicali, BC Heat low / surge low ~ok no moderate

Tucson, AZ Heat low low-moderate so-so Raob (NWS) lower

Hermosillo Heat low /surge low ~ok no moderate

Lordsburg, NM Heat low low so-so no moderate

Benjamin Hill Heat low/surge low so-so no moderate

P. Libertad Heat low/surge low ~ok no moderate

P. Penasco Fluxes/surge/heat low

low ~ok yes high

PILOT BALLOON NETWORK OBJECTIVES




PRIORITY

Cd. Constitucion Q flux into GOC moderate yes no high

SJ del Cabo Q flux into GOC moderate ~ok no high

La Paz Q flux into GOC low ~ok Raob (SMN) moderate

Isla Socorro Q flux into GOC moderate ~ok Raob (SMN) high

Topolobampo Q flux into GOC/ surges

moderate ~ok no high

Isla Maria Madre Q flux into GOC moderate so-so no high

B. Tortugas Synoptic gradient moderate-high so-so no high

Catavina Synoptic gradient low-moderate no moderate

Isla Guadalupe Synoptic gradient moderate-high no high

Isla Clarion Synoptic gradient moderate-high no high

Alpine, TX Synoptic gradient/ waves

low-moderate no high





PRIORITY

Torreon Synoptic gradient/ waves

low-moderate Raob (SMN) high

Jimenez Synoptic gradient/ waves

low-moderate no moderate

Ocampo Synoptic gradient/ waves


Matahuala Synoptic gradient/ waves


Zacatecas Synoptic gradient/ waves

Moderate Raob (SMN) moderate

Durango Synoptic gradient/ waves

Moderate no moderate

Acapulco Trop. Wave spec. Moderate Raob (SMN) moderate

Laz Cardenas Trop. Wave spec. Moderate no moderate

Chamela Land-sea breeze Moderate Raob (SMN)

Navajoa Land-sea breeze Low-Moderate no

Ouiriego Land-sea breeze Moderate no



C L I V A R S S C R e c o m m e n d a t io n s

• P r o g r a m m a t ic– D e v e lo p m e t r ic s t h a t q u a n t i f y h o w N A M E r e s e a r c h w i l l im p a c t m o d e l

d e v e lo p m e n t a n d p r e d ic t io n c a p a b i l i t i e s .

– F o r m u la t e p la n s f o r b e y o n d 2 0 0 6 , in c lu d in g a v i s io n f o r s u s t a in e d o b s e r v a t io n s a n d f o r a c o o r d in a te d o b s e r v a t io n a l / m o d e l in g a c t iv i t y a n d h o w i t w i l l in t e r a c t w i t h t h e C l im a t e P r o c e s s T e a m s c u r r e n t l y b e in g d e v e lo p e d u n d e r U S C L I V A R .

– F o s t e r , m o n i t o r a n d e v a lu a t e t h e in t e r a c t io n b e t w e e n r e g io n a l a n d g lo b a l m o d e l in g t e a m s a n d w i t h th e o b s e r v a t io n a l a c t iv i t i e s t o im p r o v e m o d e l s a n d f o r e c a s t s .

NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN

ISSUES:• We need to develop a coherent implementation plan for the NAME 2004

observing network that meets NAME’s objectives for improved warm season precipitation prediction.

• While emphasis is on the core monsoon region, there must also be emphasis on data sparse regions in Mexico and surrounding oceans.

• Resources available to NAME must be sufficient to fill these data voids.

• It is a major challenge to maintain long-term observations (beyond NAME 2004) and to anticipate future needs.

• Future satellite missions relevant to NAME 2004 are not assured (e.g. TRMM) and data collected now should be more effectively utilized.

INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

(1) SMN Meteorological Infrastructure 79 synoptic stations 16 radiosonde sites 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003) 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico)

• Historical and real-time data• Working group during NAME (meteorologists,technicians)• Joint Forecast Office

(2) Universities and Institutions in NW Mexico (Univ. of Vera Cruz, Univ. of Guadalajara, UNAM, IMTA, CICESE)

• Equipment, personnel, transportation, data collection, research

(3) Central American Collaborative Interests• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports bilateral projects

NAME EDUCATION / TRAINING

(1) Exchange Program between U.S. NWS and Mexican SMN• Central / South American desk at NCEP

(2) Central American Training Course (M. Douglas)• Training on climate, weather forecasting and observations• Designing regional meteorological / climate services• Workshop held in July 2001 attracted participants from 12 countries

(3) NWS COMET Course on Climate Variability (W. Higgins)• Available to Mexican / Central American participants in NAME

(4) Central American Collaborative Interests (J. Amador)• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports bilateral projects

(5) Linkages to human dimensions / applications (A. Ray)

ESTIMATED COSTS OF KEY ELEMENTS

• Planning:– NAME GCM-observations team: $270K/yr– NAME MM-observations team: $270K/yr

• Enhanced Observations:– NAME EOP: ~$4M + ship + research aircraft*

• Research Phase:– Analysis: ~$1M/yr– Modeling: ~$1M/yr

* Does not include labor, pre-experiment costs for networks, training, education and project office task support, or post-experiment data management activities.

NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN OBSERVATIONS

Platform / Data Estimated Cost SWG Contact

Raingauges (simple) $340K (3 yrs) R. Lobato, W. Higgins

Radiosondes

PIBALS / Tethersondes /Radiosondes

$265K

$130K / $5K

$30K

A.Douglas, M. Cortez, M. Douglas

M. Douglas

Wind profiler / radar / sounding / ship

$600K (Profilers), $800K (ISS’s), $100K (Mex Rad)

$500K (SPOL),TBD (RB)

R. Carbone

Buoys ? F. Ocampo Torres*

GPS humidity ? A. Hahmann*

Lightning network $235K + W. Petersen*

Aircraft (NOAA P-3;

Powersonde

75-100 hours (NOAA P-3)

$105K

M. Douglas, B. Smull*

Hydrometeorology (Mexico, AZ) ? D. Gochis, J. Shuttleworth

Soil Moisture ? D. Lettenmaier, T. Jackson

~4M+aircraft+ship+other ?

GAPP - NAME PlanA GAPP Warm Season Working Group met in April 2002 (New Orleans) and recommended that the GAPP-NAME linkage emphasize enhanced understanding, modeling and predictive capability of

• topographic influences on the monsoon• hydrology and water resources• land-surface memory

The Working Group also endorsed the idea of a NAME MesoscaleModeling - Observations Team

OBJECTIVES:- To describe the moisture flux into GOC on synoptic and seasonal time-scales - To relate moisture flux variations (e.g. surges) to variations in precipitation. COMPONENTS (PURPOSE):- pibal sites (low-mid level winds; diurnal windfield)- tethersondes (low-level moisture profiles at weak-wind locations up to 1.5 km)- radiosonde (limited, non-GPS)- powersonde (frequent over water soundings)- Assumes Carbone et al. network as a given; some redundancy needed

PERIOD:- 4 months (May 25th- September 25th) LAUNCH FREQUENCY: - 2x daily at all PIBAL sites (unless a radiosonde is made). - 4x daily (July - August) at12Z, 18Z, 00Z, and 06Z. - 8x daily during IOP's (4@10 days) APPROXIMATE COST:PIBAL (25 sites): ~ $130K; Radiosonde (3 sites): ~$30K; Tethered balloon (2 sites): ~$4K Powersonde (5 planes each at 3 sites): $105K

NAME SOUNDING NETWORK(Douglas et al.)

name: status and plans 4 th name science working group meeting january 9-10, 2003 name homepage:

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