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2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

2 Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment

Developed by: Ms. Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group [email protected] | 1+770.379.8006 Mr. Dominic DePasquale Space Ventures Specialist [email protected] | 1+770.379.8009

Published by: SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) Atlanta, GA


SpaceWorks’ 2013 Projection estimated 93 nano/microsatellites would launch globally in 2013; 92 nano/microsatellites actually launched, an increase of 269% over 2012

2013

2014+ SpaceWorks’ 2014 Projection reflects a significant increase in the quantity of future nano/microsatellites needing a launch. This year’s projection is 2-3 times higher than our 2013 projection in the later years (2017 – 2020), which is driven by the emergence and continued growth of commercial players in the 1-50 kg satellite market.


2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Overview

§  The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB) •  The LDDB is an extensive database of all known historical (2000 – 2013) and future (2014+) satellite

projects with masses between 0 kg and 10,000+ kg •  Currently 650 future (2014 – 2016) nano/microsatellites (1 – 50 kg) in the LDDB (focus of this study) •  Currently 48 future (2014+) picosatellites (< 1 kg) in the LDDB (not included in this study)

§  SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a Gompertz logistic curve from 2014 to the year 2020 •  Note that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet

their announced launch date or not

§  The nano/microsatellite projection was developed from a combination of two data sets •  Publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs •  Quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and

programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative), as well as the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies

Projections indicate substantial growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 410 to 543 nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013)


Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology

§  Many nanosatellites are based on the “CubeSat” standard •  Developed in by California Polytechnic State

University and Stanford University in 1999 •  Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10

cm units •  Each unit, or “U”, usually has a volume of

exactly one liter •  Each “U” has a mass close to 1 kg and not to

exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass between 3 and 4 kg)

§  This study limits the upper end of microsatellite mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range.

Satellite Class Mass Range

Femtosatellite 10 – 100 g

Picosatellite < 1 kg

Nanosatellite 1 – 10 kg

Scope of this study 1 – 50 kg

Microsatellite 10 – 100 kg

Small Satellite 100 – 500 kg

Aalborg University’s AAUSAT4 CubeSat


Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples

Scientific Research Phonesat 1.0

Mass: 1 kg Launched: 4/2013

Technology SwampSat

Mass: 1.2 kg Launched: 11/2013

Earth Observation Dove 2

Mass: 5.5 kg Launched: 4/2013

Education ArduSat


Military Application SENSE-1


Astronomy BRITE-PL


Credit: University of Florida Credit: Planet Labs Credit: http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/small_spacecraft/phonesat.html

Credit: http://www.dk3wn.info/sat/afu/sat_ardusat.shtml Credit: USAF/SMC


302 344

380 410

436

487 521

543

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 20

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s (1

-50 k

g)

Calendar Year

Full Market Potential SpaceWorks Projection Historical Launches

Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Projection (1 - 50 kg)

* Please see End Notes 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6.

The Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs. The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.

Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate between 2,000 and 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

* Assumes two NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat satellites selected in 2014. NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative total includes the sixteen missions chosen in February 2014 (in response to August 2013 Announcement of Opportunity) and the timeframe listed is based on when the already selected CubeSats are scheduled to launch. QB50 total includes two precursor satellites. Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7.

Nano/Microsatellite Future Program Summary (1 – 50 kg)

Name of Program/Satellite Constellation Timeframe Organization Country Mass (kg) Launched

to Date Total

Planned

NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat 2010-2015 NSF USA 1-3 7 13

NASA EDSN 2013-2014 NASA ARC USA 3 0 8

NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative 2011-2017 NASA USA 1-12 24 115

SeeMe Payloads 2016 DARPA USA 12 0 6

QB50 2015 Von Karman

Institute / Various

Various 2 0 52

HUMSAT 2013-2014 University of Vigo / Various Various 1 0 9

QB50

HUMSAT

Commercial (USA)

Other (Foreign)

SeeMe

NSF EDSN

CSLI

Other Programs,

75%

Existing Large

Programs, 25%

Existing large programs will comprise only 25% of future nano/microsatellites (compared to 65% in 2013) due to worldwide growth in the civil and commercial sectors

SpaceWorks Projection (2014 – 2016)

Large Program Breakdown for Announced Future Satellites

Other (USA)

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s (1

-50 k

g)


3 22 10

366

26

38 88

224

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 – 50 kg)

Commercial sector will contribute

56% of future nano/microsatellites

Civil Government Commercial Defense/Intelligence

Historical (2009 – 2013)

SpaceWorks Projection (2014 – 2016)

* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 8.

The civil sector remains strong, contributing over one third of future nano/microsatellites, but it will see reductions compared to 2009-2013 when the sector contributed 63%


Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 – 50 kg)

Technology

Communications

Communications

Total: 202


SpaceWorks Projection

(2014 - 2016)

2% 12%

21%

10%

55%

Reconnaissance

2%

52%

17%

9%

20%

Technology

Scientific

Earth Observation/ Remote Sensing

Reconnaissance

Scientific

Earth Observation/Remote Sensing

Total: 650

* Please see End Notes 2, 6, and 7.

A smaller proportion of technology development/demonstration nano/microsatellites will be built in the next few years (20% vs. 55% from 2009 to 2013)

Over half of future nano/microsatellites will be used for Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 12% from 2009 to 2013)


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage Contribution

Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)


SpaceWorks Projection

(2014 – 2016) 25%

1 kg 3 kg 2 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg

3%

1 kg 3 kg 2 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg

* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 9.

1U (1 kg) CubeSats, while still immensely popular, will comprise less of the market in the future (35% of future nanosatellites compared to 47% from 2009 to 2013)

25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class (compared to only 3% from 2009 to 2013)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s

Calendar Year

Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 - 2013 (1 - 50 kg)

1 – 10 kg 11 – 50 kg

A 330% increase in attempted nanosatellite (1-10 kg) deliveries in 2013, compared to 2012, shows signs of an emerging and growing launch market

Significant growth in the 1-10 kg mass range

* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.


Historical Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Launch Vehicle (2000 - 2013)

Launch Vehicle No. of Satellites

No. of Launches

Percentage of Satellites Launched

Kosmos-3M 50 6 20% Dnepr-1 34 4 14% Minotaur I 34 4 14% PSLV 21 6 9% H-2 18 5 7% Space Shuttle 12 6 5% Falcon 9 11 2 4% Soyuz 9 5 4% Delta II 8 3 3% Long March 7 4 3% Minotaur IV 8 1 3% Vega 8 2 3% Other 8 5 3% Antares 4 1 2% Atlas V 5 2 2% Rokot-KM 6 1 2% Falcon 1 2 1 1% M-5 (2) 2 2 1%

Launch Vehicle No. of Satellites

No. of Launches

Percentage of Satellites Launched

Kosmos-3M 25 9 24% Dnepr-1 9 2 9% H-2 9 6 9% Minotaur I 9 2 9% PSLV 8 6 8% Minotaur IV 7 5 7% Safir 6 6 6% Soyuz 6 6 6% Long March 5 5 5% Other 5 5 4% Pegasus-XL 3 1 3% Space Shuttle 3 2 3% Delta IV Heavy 2 1 2% KT-1 2 2 2% Rokot-KM 2 2 2% Atlas V 1 1 1% Delta II 1 1 1% Falcon 1 1 1 1% Falcon 9 1 1 1%

Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for 1-10 kg Satellite Class

Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for 11-50 kg Satellite Class

Low cost piggy-back opportunities have historically attracted small satellite payloads to international launch vehicles

* Please see End Note 2.


Emergence of Commercial Companies: 2013 Case Study §  SpaceWorks released its annual nano/microsatellite

projections in February of 2013 •  According to the projection, 93 satellites (1-50 kg)

were planning to launch in 2013 •  92 satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2013

§  Based on the announced launch data alone, 2014 will see a 52% increase in nano/microsatellites launched compared to 2013

§  Commercial companies will contribute over one-fourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014 •  This is a significant increase from 2013, where the

commercial sector contributed only 11% •  The continued emergence and growth of commercial

Commercial Company Satellite Class Satellite Application

Dauria Aerospace Nano

Deep Space Industries Nano

GeoOptics, Inc. Micro

ISIS Nano/Micro

Outernet (MDIF) Nano

NanoSatisfi Nano

Planet Labs Nano

Planetary Resources, Inc. Nano/Micro

SpaceQuest, Ltd. Micro

companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/ microsatellites launched

§  Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/microsatellites and the satellites’ wide spectrum of revenue generating applications

§  Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans

Ship Tracking

Asteroid Exploration

Data Collection

Earth Obs./Remote Sensing


Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry


2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Conclusions

§  The nano/microsatellite market is growing tremendously with the continued use of the CubeSat standard, microelectronics and other technology development, government programs, and furthering of applications

§  The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will

continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue

§  Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 – 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020

§  Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): •  Historical average growth of 37.2% per year over the last 4 years (2009 – 2013) •  SpaceWorks’ Projection Dataset shows average growth of 23.8% per year over the next 6 years (2014 – 2020)

§  While 1U (1 kg) CubeSats are still widely used, 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly

popular 6 kg mass class §  Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for Earth observation and

remote sensing missions



Custom analyses and more detailed assessments are available from SpaceWorks for nano/microsatellites

and larger satellite classes

For additional information or to request a quote, please contact:

Ms. Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group

1+770.379.8006 [email protected]


End Notes 1.  The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-

manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts. 2.  The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities. 3.  All NSF satellites thus far have launched through the NASA CSLI. In the table, these historical NSF satellites are included in both the count of

number launched for NSF and the count for CSLI (double counted in this sense). The bar graph of future launches shows only those NSF satellites that expected, but currently not manifested (thus they are appropriately single counted for future launches).

4.  The SpaceWorks Projection and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the announced program objectives

5.  Future projections from 2017-2020 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve “best fit” regression with market saturation point (asymptote for number of satellites) set at 525 nano/microsatellites in a year for the SpaceWorks Projection dataset and 580 for the Full Market Potential dataset.

6.  The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to NASA Ames EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe) and the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.

7.  These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Projection dataset only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market Potential dataset.

8.  By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. “Government” refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities, federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.

9.  Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included. 10.  Satellite application images are credited to the following websites: http://sweetclipart.com/colorable-earth-line-art-709,

http://www.clker.com/clipart-binary-data.html, http://hasloo.com/freecliparts/?p=520, http://bestclipartblog.com/24-ship-clip-art.html.


SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | [email protected]

1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000

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