naps ws yangonaug2015 wateravail - climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Water availability analysis for the upper Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra,Salween and Mekong river basins
Arun Shrestha
LEG regional training workshop on national adaptation plans (NAPs) for Asian countries10-14 August 2015, Yangon, Myanmar
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Acknowledgement
• HICAP Project• Arthur Lutz, Future Water• Walter Immerzeel, Future Water
& Utrecht University
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Content
• The regional context• Major science questions• Global assessment - IPCC• Results• Conclusion
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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)
Programmes• Adaptation to
change• Transboundary
Landscape• River Basins• Cryosphere and
Atmosphere• Mount Information
System
• Intergovernmental International organization working in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region
• Established in 1983
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The Hindu Kush Himalayan Region
“water tower”
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Different sources of moisture
(Shrestha, 2008)
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Strong seasonality
Shrestha et al.,
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Major science questions
1. What are the relative contributions of snow, ice, permafrost, rainfall and groundwater to the hydrology of the sub-basins and basin?
2. How will these contribution change and what will be the impact of climate change?
3. What is the current water demand scenario and how will it change in the future?
4. How can the scientific understanding linked with policy and support planned and autonomous adaptation?
30THREE DECADES
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Global assessment – IPCC AR5
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Approach
• High resolution (1 km) fully distributed model for the upstream parts of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong (HI-SPHY; based on Immerzeel et al. 2010)
• Reference period from 1998 until 2007• Calibration using observed runoff• Climate change scenarios
• Ensemble of latest CMIP5 GCM output• Downscaling -change method• Transient runs until 2050
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Model domain
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km
Upper Indus437.201 km2
Upper Ganges169.162 km2
Upper Brahmaputra372.664 km2
Upper Salween103.497 km2 Upper Mekong
77.696 km2
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Basin scale model set-up and calibration
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Input data
• Digital Elevation Model (HydroSheds based on NASA SRTM)
• APHRODITE and Princeton gridded data
• Runoff from 12 measurements stns in Nepal and Pakistan
• FAO Soil• MERIS Land Use
Legend> 7000 m
< 500 m0 200 400 600 800 1000
km
Soil types (FAO)0 200 400 600 800 1000
km
Land Use (GlobCover)0 200 400 600 800 1000
km
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Climate change scenarios
• Use two representative concentration pathways (RCP)– RCP8.5 (8.5 W/m2 in 2100) extreme– RCP4.5 (4.5 W/m2 in 2100) less extreme
• Forcing regional and global circulation models until 2050
• 4 GCMs for RCP4.5 and 4 GCMs for RCP 8.5 spanning entire range of possible futures:– Dry & cold– Dry & warm– Wet & cold– Wet & warm
• Total 2 RCPs x 4 models = 8 sets of climate projections
• Downscaled using -change method
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Model input dataRiver runoff data 1998-2007 for calibration
LegendRiver runoff data locations
0 200 400 600 800 1000km
LegendRiver runoff data locations
0 200 400 600 800 1000km
• 12 locations with river flow
data series (not all
complete)
• Data provided by DHM
Nepal, IWMI, PMD, and
WAPDA Pakistan
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Basin-scale1 km grid cell scale
Glacier projections
Fractional glacier cover
Glacierhypsometry
Classification glacier
size classes
Glacier mass
balance
Volume-Area-
scaling
1 km grid cell scale
Updated fractional glacier
cover per cellDEM
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Contribution to stream flow
Basin
Contribution to total runoff (%)
Glacier
melt
Snow
melt
Rainfall-
runoff
Base
flow
UIB 41 22 27 10
UGB 12 9 66 13
UBB 16 10 59 15
USB 8 28 42 22
UMB 1 33 44 22
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Glacier change
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Changes in hydrological regime
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
No significant change in water availability
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Changes in hydrological regimes
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Case study - Koshi
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
TamaKoshi
Dudh Koshi
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Hydropower potentialFlow duration curves
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Flow duration curves
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Main results
• Glaciers in the five river basins – Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong –are likely to reduce by 20% to 55% by 2050.
• Due to melting of glaciers and increased precipitation, the overall river flows are likely to increase or remain unchanged in 2041-2050 compared to 1998-2007 for all four river basins.
• By 2050, total runoff is likely to change:
– -5% to +12% in the upper Indus basin,
– +1% to +27% in the upper Ganges,
– 0% to +13% in the upper Brahmaputra,
– + 3% to +19% in the upper Salween and
– + 2 to +20% in the upper Mekong.
Lutz, A. F., W. W. Immerzeel, A. B. Shrestha, and M. F. P. Bierkens, 2014: Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication.
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Thank you