national accounts annual 2019 & quarter 1 2020 - cso.ie · bop current account - results for...
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National AccountsInternational AccountsAnnual 2019 & Quarter 1 2020
Media Briefing20 July 2020
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National AccountsAnnual 2019NIE 2019
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NIE 2019Year-on-Year
Growth Rates
GDP +5.6% (+5.5%)
GNP +3.4% (+3.3%)
Previous preliminary annual estimates in
brackets
Annual GDP & GNP Constant Prices 2009 - 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
GDP GNP
GNP
GDP
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NIE 2019 – Standard Annual Revisions
• Latest Revenue tax files
• Commodity flow estimates
• Structural Business Survey Data - CIP, ASI, Prodcom
• Insurance Statistics
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Preliminary and Current Estimate of Real GDP Growth Rates
Preliminary and Current Estimate of Real GNP Growth Rates
-5
0
5
10
2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Q42019GDP NIE2019GDP
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 2017 2018 2019Q42019GNP NIE2019GNP
%
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Preliminary and Current Estimate of Annual GDP at Current Market Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
Q42019GDP NIE2019GDP
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Modified GNI (GNI*) – 2019
GDP
€356.1bn
Net Factor Flows
- €81.7bn
GNP
€274.3bn
EU Taxes and
Subsidies
+ €1.1bn
GNI
€275.4bn
Adjustments
- €61.8bn
GNI*
€213.7bn
356
274
275
213.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
GDP GNP GNI GNI*
€b
illio
n
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GDP, GNP and Modified GNI at Current Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
GDP GNP GNI*
GNP
GNI*
GDP
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General Govt Debt to GDP/GNI* Ratios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Debt / GDP Ratio Debt / GNI* Ratio
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General Govt Balance as a percentage of GDP and GNI*
-3.6
-2.0
-0.7-0.3
0.10.4
-4.8
-3.2
-1.1
-0.5
0.2
0.7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Balance as a % of GDP Balance as a % of GNI*
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2019 Annual GDP % Change in Constant Prices by Country
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
%
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Annual Sector Growth by Share of GDP and GVA Growth Rate – 2019
Industry (excl. Construction)
+3.3%
Distribution, transport, hotels and restaurants+3.6%
Information andcommunication
+17.2%
Construction+7.5%
Public admin, educationand health
+3.7%
Professional,admin and support services +3.5%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing +28.4%
Arts, entertainment and other services +1.4%
Real estateactivities +1.3%
Financial and insurance activities +5.8%
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Trends in Value Added by Sector (2012 =100)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Industry (excl.Construction)
Distribution, transport,hotels and restaurants
Information andcommunication
Professional, admin andsupport services
Public admin, educationand health
Construction
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Annual Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate 2019
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
€b
illio
n
=
PCE+3.2% +
+ + +
+ + -
-
=
GDP
Govt.
+6.3%Investment
+74.8%Exports
+10.5%
Imports
+32.4%GDP
+5.6%
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Trend in FDD, MFDD and Net Exports 2012 = 100 v's Total Exports and Imports
0
70
140
210
280
350
420
490
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD
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Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Annual GDP Growth
Contribution of Modified Domestic Demand and Modified Net Exports to Annual GDP Growth
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Net Exports Final Domestic Demand
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
Net Exports, adjusted for IP imports Modified Final Domestic Demand
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Personal Consumption Expenditure2019/2018
• Annual PCE Total increased 3.2% in volume compared to 2018
• PCE Goods increased 2.9% with notable increases for cars and clothing & footwear
• PCE Services increased 3.4% with notable increases for foreign travel and professional services
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-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
PCE Annual Growth Rates 2019 by Item - constant prices
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-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%
Dwellings
Roads
Other building and construction
Costs assoc. with transfer of land & buildings
Transport equipment
Agricultural machinery
Other machinery and equipment
Software
Exploration
Artistic originals
Research and development
Growth in Capital Formation by Investment Type 2019 – constant prices
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Composition of Capital Formation 2007 – 2019 Constant prices - chain linked
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
B&C M&E Intangibles
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Capital Formation 2019/2018
Total +74.8%
Buildings & Construction +8.0%
New dwellings +12.3%
All other B&C +7.2%
Remainder of Cap Formation +98.7%
Machinery and Equipment -1.2%
Aircraft +1.4%
Machinery and equipment would be -2.1% if aircraft had been unchanged
Intangibles + €67,747m
Excl. R&D service imports and trade in IP -29.7%
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GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows 2010 – 2019
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€b
illio
n
GDP NFF GNP
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2019 Annual SummaryGDP +5.6% GNP +3.4%
Expenditure: Output:• PCE +3.2% • Industry +3.3%
• Government Expenditure +6.3% • Information & Communication +17.2%
• Investment +74.8% • Professional, Admin & Support + 3.5%
• Net Exports down €57,247m • Public Administration +3.7%
• Financial & Insurance Activities +5.8%
Final Domestic Demand +32.4% • Construction +7.5%
Modified Domestic Demand +3.3% • Dist, Trans, Hotels and Restaurants +3.6%
Net Factor Outflows €80,149m (€70,664m in 2018)
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National AccountsQuarter 1 2020
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Quarter 1 2020 – Constant Prices, Seasonally Adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Changes
GDP +1.2%
GNP +0.1%
(Unchanged results compared with Q1
Provisional in June)
GDP
GNP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
€b
illio
n
GDP GNP
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Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted
Industry (excl. Construction)
+9.2%
Construction-1.6% Distribution,
transport, hotels and restaurants
-3.0%
Information andcommunication
+8.5%
Financial and insurance activities +0.2%
Real estate activities+1.0%
Professional,admin and support
services-4.5%
Public admin, educationand health
+0.1%
Arts, entertainment and other services -6.6%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -11.4%
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Traditional and Modern Sectors - Industrial Production Index (seasonally adj.) Jan 2019 = 100
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140Ja
n 2
01
9
Feb
20
19
Mar
20
19
Ap
r 2
01
9
May
20
19
Jun
20
19
Jul 2
01
9
Au
g 2
01
9
Sep
20
19
Oct
20
19
No
v 2
01
9
Dec
20
19
Jan
20
20
Feb
20
20
Mar
20
20
Ap
r 2
02
0
May
20
20
Traditional Modern
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PCE-3.1% +
+ + +
+ + -
-
=
GDP
Govt.
+0.5%Investment
+35.0%Exports
+0.1%
Imports
-4.5%GDP
+1.2%
Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
€b
illio
n
=
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Trend in Domestic Demand and Net Exports 2017 Q1 = 100 v's total exports and imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
€billion
ind
ex
Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD
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Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q4 2019
Total -4.5% (seasonally adjusted)
• Goods - 6.0%
• Services - 2.3%
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Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March 2020 vs March 2019
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Food, Bev & Tobacco
Pharma
All retail businesses
Fuel
Furniture
Dept Stores
Motor Trades
Clothes
Bars
March 2020 SA Vol Growth March 2019 SA Vol Growth
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Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March - May 2020
-100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0%
Motor trades
Department stores
Fuel
Pharma
Clothes
Furniture
Bars
All retail businesses
Food
May April March
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Department stores
All retail businesses
Retail sale of food
Retail sale of household equipment
Retail sale of electrical goods
Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear
Retail sale of books, newspapers, stationery and other goods
May April March
Retail Sales : Percentage of total sales on-line
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Capital Formation Q1 2020 constant prices, seasonally adjusted
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80€billion
B&C M&E Intangibles
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Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q4 2019
Total +35.0% (seasonally adjusted)this quarter v’s last quarter
Building and construction -0.9%
Machinery and equipment *
Intangibles *
Machinery and equipment excl. aircraft leasing *
Intangibles excl. R&D service
imports and trade in IP *
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GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows Q1 2017 – Q1 2020€
bill
ion
-40,000
-20,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
GDP NFF GNP
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Quarterly SummaryGDP +1.2% GNP +0.1%
Expenditure: Output:• PCE -3.1% • Industry (Excl. Construction) +9.2%
• Government Expenditure +0.5% • Information & Communication +8.5%
• Investment +35.0% • Financial & Insurance Activities +0.2%
• Net Exports up €5,547m • Professional, Admin & Support -4.5%
• Dist, Trans, Hotels and Rest. -3.0%
Final Domestic Demand -0.9% • Public Admin Educ, Health +0.1%
Mod. Final Domestic Demand -2.8% Net Factor Outflows €19,839m
(€20,190m in Q4 2019)
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International Accounts
Revised Series Q12018 – Q12020
CA* and ReDomiciledPLC’s data for 2019
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New Information & Revisions to International Accounts Series
New data series:
• Redomiciled PLC’s data 2019
• CA* data 2019
Main Data Revisions:
• Additional IP imports in Q4 2018 and Q2 2019
• Revised series on profit outflows in the Manufacturing sector
Information Note:
• Tourism in the National and International Accounts
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Redomiciled PLC’s note updated
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A Modified Current Account Balance for Ireland, CA*
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A Modified Current Account Balance for Ireland, CA*
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Revisions to Current Account Balance
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
€b
n
Current Account Balance, June 2020 Current Account Balance, July 2020
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BOP Current Account - Results for Year 2019
€million
2017 2018 2019
Current Account surplus €1,457 €19,617 -€40,404
• Merchandise surplus €109,119 €109,132 €119,125
• Services balance -€43,491 -€16,344 -€75,331
• Net Income outflow -€64,169 -€73,170 -€84,198
Current Account * €10,662 €12,142 €16,495
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Revised Series on Quarterly Profits Outflows
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Explaining Overseas Tourism Expenditure Figures across CSO Publications
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Number of overseas trips to Ireland and tourism and travel export figures from CSO publications.
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