National Centers for Environmental Prediction

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

Fall COPC Meeting

Suitland, MD

November 14-15, 2007

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Overview

• NCEP Overview

• Performance Metrics

• Computer Status

• 2006 Implementations

• Upcoming Implementations

• Plans for New Building

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Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

EMC - Environmental Modeling CenterHPC – Hydromet. Prediction CenterNCO - NCEP Central OperationsCPC - Climate Prediction CenterOPC - Ocean Prediction CenterSPC – Storm Prediction CenterSEC – Space Environment CenterTPC – Tropical Prediction CenterAWC – Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Review

CPCEMCHPCNCOOPCSEC

SPC

AWC

TPC

Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

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NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea”

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Space Weather Name Change

As of October 1, 2007, the former Space Environment Center has a new name:

Space Weather Prediction Center

Need to solidify relative roles with regard to NOAA and DoD, especially for operational civilian prediction functions/backup and access to numerical model based prediction.

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Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights

Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers

NOAA Space WeatherPrediction Center

Space Weather Prediction CenterEvolving Customer Base

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Model Performance

Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar

Southern Hemisphere

Northern Hemisphere

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Product Generation Summary

Comms Upgrade

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1015202530354045

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JULN

umbe

r of H

its (M

illio

ns)

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

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Computing Capability

•Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily•Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over•Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007•Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

Primary Weather Primary Weather $13.9 M$13.9 MPrimary Climate Primary Climate $5.3 M$5.3 MBackup Backup $7.2 M$7.2 MTotal: Total: $26.4 M$26.4 M

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Central Computing System

• Scheduled for Fall 2009• Will shift primary computer operations from

Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA)• Will also upgrade communication circuits

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2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeGlobal Forecast System (GFS)

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis

3rd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY07

1 May 071 May 07

North Amer. Mesoscale (NAM)WRF Physics Upgrade DGEX Physics upgrade WRF model upgrade Hi-Res Window

3rd Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY07

2nd Qtr FY08

Real-Time Mesoscale Anlys. (RTMA)RTMA upgradeExtension to OCONUS

3rd Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08

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2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeShort Range Ensemble Forecast

Bias Correction for Precipitation 4th Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08

NAEFSIncrease U.S. Membership from 15 20 Increase in vertical levelsNew Products

2nd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY074th Qtr FY07

27 March 072nd Qtr FY08

Fire WeatherReinstate into operations 2nd Qtr FY07

Undergoing OSIP review 2nd Qtr FY08

Hurricane Modeling Hurricane WRF in parallel operationsProbabilistic Storm Surge

3rd Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY07

19 June 0712 June 07

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2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeAir Quality Forecast

Expanded domain to CONUS 3rd Qtr FY07 4th Qtr FY07

Ocean ModelingMulti-grid Wave Model RTOFS/HYCOM assimil. upgradeGODAS

4th Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY071st Qtr FY08

1st Qtr FY085 June 2007

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)Assimilation of additional data sourcesUpgrade radiation, convection, and land-sea parameterization

1st Qtr FY08 1st Qtr FY08

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2008 Planned Implementations

Model Upgrade Planned

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 12/4/07

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 12/4/07

Climate Forecast System (CFS) 12/18/07

Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Alaska 1/8/08

Regional Ensemble for Olympics 2/11/08

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 2/21/08

Great Lakes Wave Model 3/3/08

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2008 Planned Implementations

Model Upgrade Planned

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 3/25/08

Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Hawaii, Puerto Rico 3/25/08

Global Forecast System (GFS) Bundle 5/5/08

Hurricane WRF Upgrade 5/30/08

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade 6/17/08

Wave Ensemble 6/23/08

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2008 Planned Implementations

Model Upgrade PlannedReal-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Guam

7/7/08

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 8/11/08

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 8/18/08

Air Quality 9/26/08

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ*

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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day

Perc

ent U

sed

RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

GD

AS

GFS analysis

NA

M analys

CFS

RTOFS

SREF NAM

AQ

GFSHUR

RD

AS

Data processingCurrent (2007)

GENS/NAEFS

Current - 2007

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

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Forces for Change• Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches

– Multi-model ensembles• SREF• NAEFS• Climate Forecast System

• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface

radiance data• All models run within ESMF

– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

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CFSMFS

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day

Perc

ent U

sed

RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

WAV

CFS & MFS

GENS/NAEFSGFS

Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 - 2015

Regional

Rap Refresh

GlobalHUR

SREF

Reforecast

Hydro / NIDIS/FF

Hydro

NAM

GDAS

RDAS

RTOFS RTOFSAQAQ

Computing factor: 81

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square)

• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006• 40 spaces for visiting

scientists

Date

Construction Start May 9, 2007

Move Start Dec 2008

Move Complete July 2009

Construction Schedule

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Construction photographs – November, 2007

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

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NORTH

NOAA Centerfor

Weather and ClimatePrediction

NCWCP

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NCWCP

U Md

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

1 Mile

Silver Spring

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Summary• NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast

components from models to service centers • Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs

– ConOps– NUOPC - models– Backup!

• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist– Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified

• Highest Priority Items:– Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA

• will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.