National Chicken Council’s57th Annual Conference

Situation & Outlook PanelOctober 5, 2011

Gerald A. Bange, ChairpersonWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Office of the Chief EconomistU.S. Department of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts

2010/11 estimate(Sept. 12)

2011/12 forecast(May 11)

2011/12 forecast(June 9)

2011/12 forecast(July 12)

2011/12 forecast

(August 11)

2011/12 forecast(Sept. 12)

Planted area (Mill. acres) 88.2 92.2 90.7 92.3 92.3 92.3Harvested area (Mill. acres) 81.4 85.1 83.2 84.9 84.4 84.4Yield (bushels per acre) 152.8 158.7 158.7 158.7 153.0 148.1

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,708 730 730 880 940 920Production 12,447 13,505 13,200 13,470 12,914 12,497Imports 30 20 20 20 19 15Total supply 14,185 14,255 13,950 14,370 13,874 13,432

Feed and residual 5,000 5,100 5,000 5,050 4,900 4,700Food, seed, and industrial 6,430 6,455 6,455 6,550 6,510 6,410Ethanol 5,020 5,050 5,050 5,150 5,100 5,000Domestic use 11,430 11,555 11,455 11,600 11,410 11,110

Exports 1,835 1,800 1,800 1,900 1,750 1,650Total use 13,265 13,355 13,255 13,500 13,160 12,760

Ending stocks 920 900 695 870 714 672Percent

Stocks to use ratio 6.9 6.7 5.2 6.4 5.4 5.3Dollars per bushel

Average market price 5.20 5.50/6.50 6.00/7.00 5.50/6.50 6.20/7.20 6.50/7.50

  

  

  

 INDUSTRY

EXPECTATIONS  

CROP

 REPORT

EDBY NASS

 WASDE9/12/11

  

AVERAGE

  

RANGE  

 -- million bushels -- 

Wheat 

2,150 

1/ 

2,046 

1,959 - 2,247  Corn

 1,128

 920

 962

 820 - 1,050 

Soybeans 

215 

225 

225 

202 - 240

GRAIN STOCKSAS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2011

Quarterly Corn Feed & Residual Use

Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

9/7/07 4/6/08 11/4/08 6/4/09 1/2/10 8/2/10 3/2/11 9/30/11

$/gal.

Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

+ 37 cents / gal. (9/30/11)

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

9/1/10 10/27/10 12/22/10 2/16/11 4/13/11 6/8/11 8/3/11 9/28/11

$/gal.

Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.

Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)

Ethanol

$0.12

U.S. Soybeans Supply and Use2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts

2010/11 estimate(Sept. 12)

2011/12 forecast(May 11)

2011/12 forecast(June 9)

2011/12 forecast(July 12)

2011/12 forecast

(August 11)

2011/12 forecast(Sept. 12)

Planted area (Mill. acres) 77.4 76.6 76.6 75.2 75.0 75.0Harvested area (Mill. acres) 76.6 75.7 75.7 74.3 73.8 73.8Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 43.4 43.4 43.4 41.4 41.8

Mill. bushelsBeginning stocks 151 170 180 200 230 225Production 3,329 3,285 3,285 3,225 3,056 3,085Imports 15 15 15 15 15 15Total supply 3,495 3,470 3,480 3,440 3,301 3,325

Crush 1,650 1,655 1,655 1,655 1,635 1,635Seed and residual 125 115 115 115 111 111Domestic use 1,775 1,770 1,770 1,769 1,746 1,746

Exports 1,495 1,540 1,520 1,495 1,400 1,415Total use 3,270 3,310 3,290 3,264 3,146 3,161

Ending stocks 225 160 190 175 155 165Percent

Stocks to use ratio 6.9 4.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 5.2Dollars per bushel

Average market price 11.35 12.00/14.00 13.00/15.00 12.00/14.00 12.50/14.50 12.65/14.65

Soybean Meal Prices 1995 - 2011

Dollars per ton

U.S. Monthly Biodiesel Production

U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin

Biodiesel Price Comparisons

Renewable Fuel Mandates(RFS 2 -- Excluding Corn-Based)

Monthly canola oil stocks

0

100

200

300

400

500

Oct-06Apr-07

Oct-07Apr-08

Oct-08Apr-09

Oct-09Apr-10

Oct-10Apr-11

Oct-11

Mil. Lbs.

1.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.6

Aug-10Oct-

10Dec-

10Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11Aug-11

Oct-11

2011 2012

Soybean/Corn Price Ratio (March 2012 Futures)

ratio

1.94

2.07

World Corn Production

Country or Region2010/11 estimate

2011/12 forecast

Change from previous month

Change from 2010/11

Million Tons Percent PercentWorld 824.0 854.7 -0.7 3.7United States 316.2 317.4 -3.2 0.4

Foreign 507.8 537.2 0.9 5.8Argentina 22.0 27.5 5.8 25.0Brazil 57.5 61.0 7.0 6.1Mexico 20.6 24.0 0.0 16.5Canada 11.7 10.0 -9.1 -14.6European Union 55.9 61.0 1.6 9.2FSU-12 18.6 27.6 5.7 48.7Ukraine 11.9 18.0 9.1 51.0

South Africa 12.0 12.5 0.0 4.2China 173.0 178.0 0.0 2.9September 12, 2011

September 12, 2011

Soybean Price (in Brazilian Real)

$13.00/bu

$9.50/bu