national climate and water briefing - bureau of meteorology · 2017-08-02 · sea ice •antarctic...
TRANSCRIPT
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27 July 2017
National Climate and Water Briefing
Photo: Dion Georgopoulos Source: CanberraTimes.com.au 24 July 2017
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Image: Jan Kratochvila
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Welcome
Graham Hawke Group Executive Bureau of Meteorology
Photo: Matt Bastin
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Climate conditions and outlook Joel Lisonbee Senior Climatologist Bureau of Meteorology
Watsonia, Victoria | 25 July 2017 Photo: Catherine Ganter
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Recent conditions
• Recent conditions • State of climate drivers • Climate outlook
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El Niño
La Nina Negative IOD
Positive IOD
Negative IOD and neutral ENSO
Latest weekly values (23 July) • NINO3.4: +0.35 °C • IOD: –0.15 °C
EN
SO
– N
INO
3.4
(°C
)
IOD
inde
x (°
C)
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
-3.2
-2.4
-1.6
-0.8
0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
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Financial year overview: temperatures
Maximum temperature July 2016 – June 2017
Minimum temperature July 2016 – June 2017
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December 2016 – February 2017: heatwaves
Highest daily maximum temperature for February 2017
• Waves of heat: • 22–31 December • 10–15 January • 17–21 January • 9–12 February
• Most severe heatwave for
New South Wales since 1939
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Sir Ivan Fire 14 February 2017
• Pyro-cumulonimbus and wind change
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Financial year overview: rainfall
12 month rainfall July 2016 – June 2017
July–September 2016
October–December 2016
January–March 2017
April–June 2017
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September 2016: floods South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and Queensland
Riverine flooding, September 2016 Forbes, New South Wales 20–25 September 2016
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• Perth rainfall, 9 February:
• 114.4 mm
• Perth's second-wettest day on record
• More than January, February and March averages combined
• Wettest summer ever recorded (141 years of record)
Rainfall anomalies: February 2017
February: floods southwest Western Australia
400 mm
200 mm
100 mm
50 mm
25 mm
10 mm
0 mm
-10 mm
-25 mm
-50 mm
-100 mm
-200 mm
-400 mm
Phillips River bridge, southwest Western Australia Photo: Dana Fairhead
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March: rainfall Tropical cyclone Debbie accumulated rainfall
Tropical cyclone Tropical
cyclone
300 mm 100 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0
March rainfall
Wholesale price index for Gourmet Tomatoes, Melbourne 2015–16 and 2016–17
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June: rainfall • Australia
• 2nd lowest June rainfall on record • Lowest since 1940
• Victoria
• Lowest June rainfall on record • Previous lowest in June 1944
• Murray-Darling Basin
• 4th lowest June rainfall on record • Lowest since 1986
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Winter-to-date: rainfall
• Western Australia • On track for 2nd lowest June–July
period on record • Victoria
• On track for driest June–July on record
• more than 50% below average
As at 25 July
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June: minimum temperatures
• Australia • 0.4 °C below average
• South Australia
• 7th lowest minimums on record • 1.7 °C below average • Coolest June since 2007
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Winter-to-date: minimum temperatures
• Series of cold nights in the south
continued from June into July
• July minimum temperatures on track to be the lowest since at least 2002 for • Victoria • New South Wales and • Tasmania
As at 25 July
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June maximum temperatures
• Australia • 7th highest June maximums
• Western Australia
• 3rd highest June maximums
• Murray-Darling basin • 8th highest June maximums
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Winter-to-date maximum temperatures
• Australia • Likely to be warmest June–July
period on record
• All states apart from Victoria and Tasmania are likely to have one of their top ten warmest Julys on record for maximum temperature
As at 25 July
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More warm days to come…
• A 'warm wave' is forecast for coming week
• Record July daytime temperatures predicted across almost all of Australia
Experimental product
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Global temperatures: 2017
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Diff
eren
ce fr
om 2
0th
cent
ury
aver
age
(°C
)
Global temperature accumulated monthly anomalies
1998
2005
2009
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2016
2017
2015
Data: NOAA NCDC
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International climate events
African famine European heatwave
Cold snap in South America
New Zealand flooding
Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones
• Third consecutive failed wet season for east Africa
• Severe famine in Ethiopia
• Wildfires in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Sicily and Greece
• London, hottest June Day since 1976
• Rare snowfall in Santiago as 'Chile turns chilly' in mid-July
• State of emergency declared in South Island cities of Otago, Christchurch, Timaru and Dunedin
• More than 200 mm in 24 hours to 22 July
• 8 active tropical storms on 24 July
• 6 named • Typhoon Noru, strongest
storm of the season so far
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Sea ice
• Antarctic sea-ice at record low • 12 July: Larson C ice-shelf
breaks • 13 July: US National Ice
Center issues press release confirming the new iceberg and officially naming it A-68
• Arctic sea-ice low, but not record
• Record low sea ice extent is from 2012
Larsen C Ice Shelf
Iceberg A-68
False-color image captured by NASA's Landsat’s Thermal Infrared Sensor
NASA: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)
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Climate drivers
• Recent conditions • State of climate drivers • Climate outlook
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What's driving our climate?
• The usual suspects – Oceanic Drivers Indian Ocean Dipole El Niño–Southern Oscillation
– Atmospheric Drivers Southern Annular Mode Subtropical ridge Madden–Julian Oscillation
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What's driving our climate?
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Oceanic climate drivers Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies: Week ending 23 July 2017
Latest weekly values (23 July) • NINO3.4: +0.35 °C • IOD: -0.15 °C
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Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index observations and forecast
Southern Annular Mode
• Currently neutral • Mostly positive since May • Model guidance shows wide
spread in possibilities
Positive SAM winter rainfall impacts
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Subtropical Ridge June 2017 Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP)
June 2017 MSLP anomaly • High pressure over southern Australia through June
• Contributed to: • high daytime and low
overnight temperatures • low rainfall
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Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
MJO amplitude last 60 days
Weak or indiscernible
Moderate
Strong • Only an influence when moderate
to strong • Different impacts based on location
and time of year • Has been mostly weak for past month • Forecast to remain weak for next
three weeks
Week 1 Week 2–3 Week 4–5
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Climate outlooks
• Recent conditions • State of climate drivers • Climate outlooks
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: July
-2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
observed
BOM
Canada
ECMWF
Japan
Meteofrance
NASA
NOAA
UKMO
NINO3.4 outlook
° C
OISSTv2 (1981-2010)
Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
High skill Mod skill Low skill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Out
look
sta
rt m
onth
Lead time, months
High skill
Low skill
Low to moderate skill
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August–October rainfall outlook
Chance of exceeding median rainfall, August–October 2017
August
September
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
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August–October maximum temperature outlook
Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature, August–October 2017
August
September
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
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August–October minimum temperature outlook
Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature, August–October 2017
August
September
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
Past Accuracy
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Introducing mid-month Climate Outlooks
• First look: – Will usually be issued 2nd Thursday of month – Integrates early intelligence from models – Short video
• End-of-month: – Clearest picture – Issued closest to start of outlook period – Up-to-date summary of current climate
influences – Comprehensive video including wrap-up of
recent conditions
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June bushfires and northern bushfire outlook
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Northern rainfall onset outlook • Onset occurs when the rainfall total in a
particular region reaches 50 mm
Average date of onset (accumulation of 50 mm)
This year, odds favour early onset over northern Queensland and the Kimberley coast
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Summary
• In contrast to last year, winter 2017 (so far): – Dominated by high pressure – Among driest on record – Warm days; cold at night for the southeast
• Most large-scale climate drivers are currently neutral • Outlooks
– Above-median temperatures likely for next three months – Below-median rainfall expected for southern and western Australia
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Thank you
Questions Joel Lisonbee
Birchip, Victoria | 6 July 2017 Photo: Catherine Ganter
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Hydrological conditions and outlook Aaron Wassing Project Manager, National Water Account
Ord river Farming and crops at Kununurra Photo: John Carnemolla
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Recent hydrological conditions
• Recent hydrological conditions • Water storages • Past water use and sources • Streamflow outlooks
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Rainfall
May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 to-date
As at 21 July
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Effective rainfall
May 2017 totals June 2017 totals
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Effective rainfall—southern Australia Comparing June for 6 years
June 2015 June 2016 June 2017
June 2013 June 2014 June 2012
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Effective rainfall
May 2017 totals June 2017 totals July 2017 totals to date
As at 21 July
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Soil moisture (10–100 cm)
May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 to-date
As at 21 July
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Streamflow observations June 2017
April 2017
• High flow at 46 locations (14%)
• Near-median flow at 67 locations (21%)
• Low flow at 189 locations (59%)
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Streamflow observations Murray–Darling Basin
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Water storages
• Recent hydrological conditions • Water storages • Past water use and sources • Streamflow outlooks
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Water storage levels
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Murray–Darling Basin storages
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Past water use and sources
• Recent hydrological conditions • Water storages • Past water use and sources • Streamflow outlooks
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National Water Account
• 2015–16 is 7th annual account
• 10 regions
• 75% of population
• More than 80% of national water use
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Water sources and use: 2015–16
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Trends in urban regions
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Murray–Darling Basin water use and availability
Storages Water use
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Streamflow outlooks
• Recent hydrological conditions • Water storages • Past water use and sources • Streamflow outlooks
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Streamflow forecasts July–September 2017
• High flow at 56 locations (18%)
• Near-median flow at 100 locations (31%)
• Low flow at 162 locations (51%)
• Low to moderate forecast skill mainly in southern Australia; high skill in north
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Summary
• Dry conditions across southern Australia in June (typically a wet month) • Low observed streamflows in June
– 59% of all sites – almost 80% across Murray–Darling Basin
• Water storage levels continue to fall across much of southern Australia • Continued low streamflows forecast for July–September at half of sites, particularly in
southern Australia
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Thank you Questions?
Wivenhoe Dam, QLD Photo: Alecia Scott
Aaron Wassing
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Next briefing
Thursday, 31 August 2017
Melbourne, Victoria | 18 June 2017 Photo: Vanessa Webb