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1 March 2018 National Climate and Water Briefing

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Page 1: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

1 March 2018

National Climate and

Water Briefing

Page 2: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Welcome

Gary AllanAgriculture program, Bureau of Meteorology

Photo: Lake Cawndilla, Menindee lakes, Paul Sheahan

Page 3: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest
Page 4: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Darren RayAgriculture program, Bureau of Meteorology

Climate and water

conditions and outlook

Image:www.blaxwine.com.au

Page 5: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Evolution of

climate drivers

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Recent conditions

• Seasonal outlook

Page 6: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

2017–18 La Niña

Latest NINO 3.4 : –0.6°C

Sea surface temperature anomaliesWeek ending 25 February 2018

Page 7: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Ocean temperatures

Sea surface temperatures October 2017 – January 2018

Page 8: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Recent conditions

• End of year outlook

Page 9: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer temperatures

Maximum

temperature

Minimum

temperature

In top three hottest summers for Australia

Page 10: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer temperatures

December January February

Maximum

Minimum

As at 26 February 2018

Page 11: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer temperatures

First half of summer 2017–18 Second half of summer 2017–18

Difference from average maximum temperatures

Page 12: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer rainfall

• Late monsoon development

• Three tropical cyclones in northern WA

• Not a typical La Niña pattern in the east

Lowest

on

record

Very

much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very

much

above

average

Highest

on

record

Average summer rainfall in La Niña

Page 13: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer rainfall

December January February

Lowest

on

record

Very

much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very

much

above

average

Highest

on

record

As at 26 February 2018

Tropical

cyclone

HildaTropical

cyclone

Joyce

Tropical

cyclone

Kelvin

Page 14: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Rainfall: January 2018

Effective rainfallRainfall

Page 15: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm)

January: 1-month change January soil moisture

Page 16: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Observed streamflow: January 2018

Australia-wide

South West Coast

Tasmania

Murray–Darling

Basin

South East

Coast (Vic)

South East

Coast (NSW)

North East Coast

Tanami / Timor Sea

Page 17: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Water storage levels

As at 22 February 2018

Page 18: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Water storage levels

As at 22 February 2018

Page 19: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summer flooding

Broome, Western Australia

• Wettest January, February, and summer

on record (1698.2 mm)

• Wettest year on record—and it's only

February

Canberra: 24–25 February 2018

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

0

100

200

300

400

500

1-Dec-17 1-Jan-18 1-Feb-18

Tota

l rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Dai

ly r

ain

fall

(mm

)

Broome Airport rainfall, summer 2017–18

Daily rainfall (mm) Total rainfall (mm)

Rainfall total: 23–26 February 2018

Ph

oto

so

urc

e: A

BC

New

s

Page 20: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Seasonal outlook

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Recent conditions

• Seasonal outlook

Page 21: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: February 2018

OISSTv2 (1981-2010)

NINO3.4 outlook

NIN

O3

.4 (

°C)

La Niña

El Niño

-2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

observed

BOM

Canada

ECMWF

Japan

Meteofrance

NASA

NOAA

UKMO

Now

Page 22: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

March–May rainfall outlook

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

April

MarchPast accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

Page 23: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Maximum temperature outlook: March–May 2018

Chance of exceeding median maximum

temperature

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

March

April

Page 24: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Minimum temperature outlook: March–May 2018

Chance of exceeding median minimum

temperature

MarchPast accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

April

Page 25: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Seasonal streamflow outlook: February–April 2018

South West Coast

South East Coast

(NSW)

Murray–Darling

Basin

Australia

Tasmania South East Coast

(Vic)

North East Coast

Tanami–Timor Sea

Coast

Page 26: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Summary

• Weak La Niña conditions since early December—atypical impacts; now winding up

• Delayed northern monsoon onset and several tropical cyclones in northwest

• Summer rainfall below average in the east, above average in the west

• Well above average temperatures for most of the country

• Soil moisture well below average across eastern half of the country

• Drier and warmer than average autumn likely for most areas

• Low or near median streamflows likely to continue in most locations through autumn

Page 27: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Thank you

Questions?Darren Ray

Page 28: National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology...Summer flooding Broome, Western Australia • Wettest January, February, and summer on record (1698.2 mm) • Wettest

Next briefing

29 March 2018