National Climate Monitoring Products

Andrew Watkins and John Kennedy (updated 28/4/2014)

Example: a current national climate monitoring product

(not a WMO NCMP)

Typical Users and Potential Users of National Monitoring Information from WMO nations

WMO Annual Statement •Many contributing authors•National information from WMO countries

Bulletin of American Met. Society (BAMS) •Annual State of the Climate report.•Regional chapter•Many contributing authors•National information from WMO countries

WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update•A CCl activity •Combines monitoring and prediction on seasonal scale•Could be supplemented with national information from WMO countries

NOAA/NCDC (and similar agencies) monthly global climate reports•Regular, monthly assessment of climate conditions for the globe•Uses national information from WMO countries

Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products

• Goals:– Create a short list of National Climate Monitoring

Products– That can be produced consistently by most

countries– Produce precise guidance for each– Produce standard software– Devise workshops and training material– Produce guidance for reporting and interpretation

National Climate Monitoring Products

1. Monthly area-average mean temperature time series (max+min)/2.

2. Monthly area-average of total precipitation anomalies expressed as percentages.

3. Monthly area-average of standardised precipitation index (SPI) calculated for each station.

4. Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time Tmax > 90th Percentile of Daily Maximum Temperature

5. Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time Tmin < 10th Percentile of Daily Minimum Temperature

6. Significant climate and weather event relevant to the area or region.

Implementation

• Based on Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) code

• Written in ‘R’

• Freely available, open source.

From station indices to area-averages

• Ordinary Kriging– A standard method from geostatistics– Easy to implement

• Use station data to estimate value at any point• (relatively) easy to understand/teach• BEST - Best Linear Unbiased Estimator

Example: Australian Precipitation

NCMP - ~150 freely available stations OFFICIAL

Monthly US temperatures (NCMP1)

Monthly US precip (NCMP2)

Warm days and cold nights (NCMP 4 and 5)

NCMP updates would take the form of

• A message

Dissemination Routes

NCMPFocal point

NHMSwebsite

RCC GCC

Other NHMSWMO

BAMS SotC

JournalistsCitizens

Stakeholders

XML?

BUFR

NCMP

• For each NCMP for each month in the record– Monthly values– Number of stations used to calculate NCMP– Quality flag

• For whole series– Method/software version– Focal point– Station list– Link to additional metadata

NCMP monthly updates/messages• Date: 2013/01• Country: UK

• NCMP 1 (Mean Temperature anomaly): -1.7°C• Station Count: 23• Normal Period: 1971-2000• Quality Assurance Indicator: 3 = QC, homogenised network

• NCMP 2 (Precip): 87%• Station Count: 111• Normal…

• NCMP 6 (Extreme events): 2 events• Event 1 type: Station record minimum temperature• Event 1 value: -8°C• Event 1 station id: 31276

• Method/software: Version 7.2.1.0.0 of R_NCMP• Focal point: john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk

Some (not all!)Issues to be resolved

• How open/adaptable is the final tool?

• How to incorporate training?