national investment bank 2017.pdfunder these circumstances, the national investment bank (nib) is...

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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector

Technical support for Investment

December 2017

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Egypt has been in transition since January 2011, as the country preparing for take off, after the formation of elected country’s institutions.

Since mid-July 2013, the country's new administration has decided to adopt a new strategy to cope with the major macro-economic imbalances, sluggish economic growth and high poverty. The essence of this new strategy is to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies , not deflationary.

With fresh injections of resources from abroad, the strategy aims at stimulating the economy through public investment in infrastructure, rationalizing expenditures by removing major distortions (e.g., energy subsidy) and reallocating expenditures in favor of social sectors (e.g., health).

Under these circumstances, the National Investment Bank (NIB) is pleased to issue this new publication entitled "Economic Indicators" to shed light on the most important developments in the basic economic sectors.

Mahmoud Montaser

NIB,Vice Chairman and Managing Director

Economic Indicators concerned with providing the latest monthly developments in the

egyptian economy and its various sectors. Economic Indicators is published for only

informational purposes and does not necessarily expresses the official opinion of the National

Investment Bank (NIB).

Copyright 2016 by Technical Support for Investment, Sector of Investment and Resources,

NIB. This publication may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in whole or in part, without

prior written permission from NIB.

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Contents Page Summary 3

Economic Indicators 5

Tourism 5

Suez Canal 6

Local price indicators 7

Currency exchange rates 7

Monetary indicators 8

Interest Rate 9

Fiscal Indicators 10

external sector Indicators 11

Population and labour force 11

Egyptian Stock Exchange 12

International exchange 14

Global commodity prices 14

Data Sources 15

INDEX

3



A summary of the latest developments in

economic indicators

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 4.3 percent during the Third quarter

of fiscal year 2016/2017 compared to 3.6 percent during the same period of the

previous fiscal year.1.

• Net international reserves has increased to $ 37.0 bn at the end of December

2017 compared to $ 36.7 bn in November 20172.

• In its last meeting on December 28, 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee

(MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to keep the overnight

deposit and overnight lending rates at 18.75 and 19.75 percent respectively.

The CBE’s main operations and the discount rate were also decided to be kept at levels of 19.25 percent.2

• The monthly inflation for the total Republic of consumer prices decreased by

0.21 % in December 2017 compared with 0.97 % the previous month While

the annual rate of inflation year reached 21.90% in December 2017 compared

to 25. 98% in November 2017.

• In November 2017, the number of tourists rose by 55.8 percent, to reach 778.8

Thousand compared with 499.8 Thousand in November 2016. The number of

tourist nights also rose by 145.8 percent from 3315.3 Thousand to 8150.1

Thousand during the same period.3

• The number of Egyptian population rose significantly by 4.3 percent, reaching

96.0 m people in November 2017, compared to 92.0 m people in November

2016.4

• Total revenues achieved during the period July-September 2017/2018 about 33

billion pounds compared to 64 billion pounds during the study period of the

previous fiscal year.5

1 Ministry of Planning. 2 Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). 3 CAPMAS, quoted from Ministry of Tourism. 4 CAPMAS. 5 Ministry of Finance (MOF).

4



• The total debt of the general budget (local and foreign) reached about 3676 bn

at the end of March 2017 increasing by 105.7 percent of GDP .5

• The balance of payments deficit reached $ 13.7 bn (5.8 percent of GDP) during

2016/2017, compared with a surplus of $ 2.8 bn (-0.8 percent of GDP) during

the same period of the previous fiscal year.5

• EGX 30 index increased during trading in December to close at 15019 points,

registering a rise of 3 percent, and medium stocks tended to increase where the

EGX 70 index rise by 4.05 percent to close at 828 points, while EGX 100 index

registered a rise of about 6.46 percent to close at 1972 points.6

• In November 2017, Suez Canal revenues rose to EGP 8.1 bn against EGP 6.1

bn in November 2016. The traffic achieved an increase in ship numbers, as the

number of ships crossed the Canal was 1534 ships, up from 1366 ships during

the same period of the previous year.7

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during December 2017 to 24719.22

against 24272.35 in November 2017. The DAXI Index has declined to reach

12917.64 in December 2017 compared to November of 13023.98 while the

FTSE rose in December 2017 to 7687.77 against 7326.67 in November 2017

While the Nikkei 225 index in December 2017 rose to 22764.94 against

22724.67 in November 2017. 8

• The dollar index declined during December to 91.83 against 93.00 in November

2017 while the euro index rose by 95.91 in December 2017 against 95.00 in

November 2017. 8

• Global commodity prices rose in December 2017 to 60.42 from 57.40 in

November 2017. Crude Oil rose to 66.87 in December 2017 compared to 63.57

in November 2017. For precious metals, gold rose during December 2017 to

reach 1309.30 compared to 1276.70 in November 2017, while silver recorded a

rise of 16.98 in December 2017 compared to 16.39 in November 2017.

Agricultural crops recorded US wheat falling to 427.50 in December 2017

compared to 434.38 in November 2017 while US cotton 2 rose to record 78.47

in December 2017 compared to 72.78 in November 2017 Also London sugar

recorded a slight rise to 394.70 in December 2017 compared to 390.40 in

November 2017. 8

6 The Egyptian Stock Market. 7 Suez Canal Authority. 8 investing.com.

5



1674.7

1860.42130

2443.92708.3

2047.2

2571.5

1713.1

1924.82205.6

2473.12673.3

2021.077

2510.018

july-march2015/2016

july-march2016/2017

Rise in real GDP at market prices, at a cost of factors of production during the fiscal year

Real GDP at market prices Real GDP at factor cost

Source: Ministry of planning and land reform

The number of tourists per thousandtourists

The number of tourist nights perthousand night

506.2

3303.5

826.0

8129.9

499.8

3315.3

778.8

8150.1

The number of tourists and tourist nights per thousand

Oct-16 Oct-17 Nov-16 Nov-17

Source: Ministry of tourism

Economic Indicators

Tourism

6



0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

Nov-16 Nov-17

353.0 411.0

1013.01123.0

numbers of vessels transiting the Suez Canal

The number of oil tankers transiting The number of other passing ships

Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017Feb-2017

Mar-2017Apr-2017

May-2017Jun-2017

Jul-2017Aug-2017

Sep-2017Oct-2017

Nov-2017

6.17.6 7.3

6.47.4 7.7 7.9 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.3

8.1

revenues for the Suez Canal Authority (LE billion)

Source: Suez Canal Authority

Suez Canal

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24.30 29.60 30.25 30.91 31.5029.71 29.76

32.95 31.92 31.59 30.82

25.9821.90

3.44.3

2.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.83.2

1.13 1.00 1.10 0.97 0.21

Inflation rates for the total republic (annual and monthly) CPI %

The annual rate of inflation Monthly inflation rate

Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics

5.7 5.6 5.45.5 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.9

7.1 7.718.0

10.6 11.4 10.2 8.8 8.8 9.5 9.610.7 11.7 11.8

23.6

7.37.8 8.1 7.8 7.5 8.3 7.8

9.1 9.48.6

18.9

Average exchange rates locally over the past ten years (LE / currency units)

American dollar pound euro

Local Price Indicators

Currency Exchange

rates

8



18.33 18.53 16.9017.63 18.01 18.01 18.03 17.85 17.71 17.60 17.65 17.63 17.83

19.3919.76 18.1318.81 19.33 19.96 20.33 20.66 20.98 20.98 21.04 20.74 21.00

22.9722.94 21.2521.70 22.80 23.34 23.17 23.31 23.01 23.50 23.30 23.83 23.83

Average exchange rates locally during the period (LE / currency units)

American dollar euro pound

Source: CBE / Reuters

Sep-2016 Sep-2017

685.5

887.7

583.0

737.5

305.9395.5

209.7 241.3

0.5 0.9102.5 150.2

credit facilities in local currency with LE billion

total credit facilities in local currency Non-government

private sector The household sector

The outside world sector the government

Monetary Indicators

9



24.326.4 26.5

28.5 28.631.1 31.3

36.0 36.136.5 36.7 36.7 37.0

Net international reserves with $ Billions

Net international reserves with $ Billions

Source: CBE

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 17.25 17.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25

14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.7516.75 16.75

18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75

15.75 15.75 15.75 15.75 15.7517.75 17.75

19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75

The development of the corridor prices (deposit and lending) and Central Bank discount rate%

The central bank discount rate deposit return rate Loan return rate

Source: NIB

Interest Rate

10



16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

The evolution of the rate of return on deposits of mail and investment certificates%

Rate of return on investment certificates The interest rate on deposits of E

Source: CBE

350.3

456.8 465.2 491.5

669.8834.6

588.2701.5 733.4

817.8

974.8

1207.1

-237.9 -244.7 -268.1-326.4 -305.0

-372.5

The evolution of revenues and expenses during the past years in LE billion

Total revenue Total cost Cash deficit

Source: Ministry of Finance

Fiscal Indicators

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-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

first quarter secondquarter

Thirdquarter

Fourthquarter

first quarter secondquarter

Thirdquarter

Fourthquarter

-3.7 0.3-0.2

0.81.9

5.14.0

2.7

-3.9-5.0

-5.5-4.2 -5.0 -4.7 -3.5

0.0

1.5

7.8

4.75.9

7.1

10.5

7.0

4.4

The evolution of the balance of payments, both current and capital In billion dollars

Overall Balance Trade Balance The balance of capital transactions

Source: CBE

92.0 92.2 92.4 92.6 92.7 92.9 93.1 93.3 93.4 93.6

95.8 96.0 96.0

The continued rise in the number of people per million population

External Sector Indicators

Population and Labour Force

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Nov-2016 Nov-2017

47.0

49.5

45.046.5

High numbers of male and female population in millions

male female

Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics

EGX 30 index inEGP

EGX 30 index in USD EGX 70 Index EGX 100 Index Nile Index

Opening price 14582.22 2792.45 795.43 1852.16 528.24

Highest price 15060.10 2883.28 850.64 1978.52 543.81

Lowest price 14277.47 2721.44 767.44 1807.26 522.09

Closing Price 15019.14 2875.44 827.66 1971.76 532.06

The change% 1.67% -3.73% 1.72% 4.75% 0.00

-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

Egyptian stock indexes during trading month

Money Market Indicators

Egyptian Stock

Exchange

13



Nov-2017

Des-2017

31.263

26.861

7.084

4.597

0.635

0.540

Market totals

The number of operations per million Trading volume in million paper Turnover in billion pounds

Egyptians69%

Arabs12%

Non-Arab foreigners

19%

INVESTORS' DEALINGS

Source: Egyptian Stock Exchange

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December 2017 (points)November 2017 (points)

24719.2224272.35

12917.6413023.98

7687.777326.67

22764.9422724.96

91.8393.00 95.9195.00

International Exchange

Dow Jones DAX FTSE 100 Nikkei 225 Dollar Index Euro Index

December 2017 (dollar)November 2017 (dollar)

60.4257.40 66.8763.57

1309.301276.70

16.98516.399

427.50434.38

78.4772.78

394.70390.40

Global Commodity Prices

Crude Oil Brent Gold Silver US Wheat US Cotton 2 Londen Sugar

Source: investing.com

International Exchange

Global Commodity Prices

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Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics

National Investment Bank

The Ministry of Planning and Follow-up and administrative reform

Ministry of Tourism

Suez Canal Authority

Central Bank of Egypt

Ministry of Finance

Egyptian Stock Exchange

investing.com

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