National Perspectives on Communications

Resilience among LLDCs

UN ESCAP Workshop on knowledge and policy gaps

in disaster risk reduction and development planning

Bangkok, Thailand

March 8-9, 2016

Abu Saeed Khan

abu@lirneasia.net

Ericsson Mobility Report November 2015

Is Asia Pacific ready for 2021?

• Spectrum is critical for GSM/EDGE. Internet is additionally critical for WCDMA/HSPA, LTE/5G.

• International connectivity is the lifeline of IP Transit, Cloud, CDN, Data Centers, Peering etc.

• Carriers are centralized in SG and HK. IP Transit is disproportionately expensive in the region.

• Major regulatory roadblocks in Asia: – Spectrum lacks technology-neutrality (Demand-side

problem).

– International connectivity only through submarine cables (Supply-side problem).

– No carrier-neutral submarine cable, cable landing stations, gateways, metro and domestic TX networks (Broadband supply chain problem).

ITU’s “Measuring the Information Society

Report 2015” (Selected Asian economies)9

0.6

%

87

.9%

85

.5%

84

.6%

82

.0%

74

.6%

67

.5%

49

.3%

48

.3%

37

.9%

34

.9%

25

.8%

18

.0%

17

.1%

Individual Internet users (Fixed & Mobile 2014)

3,345

617

95 75 49 47 43 28 27 21 13 6 6 5

International bandwidth per Internet user (Kbps, 2014)

669X

103X

“Akamai state of the Internet Q3 2015”

Broadband inequality across Asia Pacific

20.5

15.8 15.0

12.5

10.18.7 8.2 7.8

5.1 4.93.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5

Average speed (Mbps)

96% 93% 92% 90% 88% 87% 87%76% 72%

52%

33% 31%

17% 14% 10%

>4 Mbps

68%

59%54%

51%

29%22%

18% 18%

4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%

>10 Mbps

45.0%

36.0%32.0%

27.0%

13.0%

8.2% 7.4% 5.8%

0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

>15 Mbps

Tale of two continents:

Akamai reveals the qualitative difference

20.5

15.815.0

12.5

10.18.7 8.2 7.8

5.1 4.93.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5

South

Korea

Hong Kong Japan Singapore Taiwan New

Zealand

Thailand Australia Sri Lanka Malaysia China Vietnam Indonesia Philippines India

Top 15 Asian markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015

17.416.4 16.2 15.6

14.8 14.5 14.013.1 13.0 12.8 12.4

11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2

Top 15 European markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015 Landlocked countries.

No direct access to submarine cables.

Asia vs. Europe: Median monthly IP

Transit prices per Mbps, 10 GigE, Q2 2015$

0.9

2

$0

.96

$0

.97

$1

.00

$1

.00

$1

.00

$1

.04

$1

.12

$1

.12

$1

.20

$1

.25

$1

.40

$4

.10

$4

.41

$5

.00 $

6.0

0

$8

.00 $

9.0

0 $1

0.0

0

$1

1.0

0

$1

4.5

0Source: TeleGeography. 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps. Prices (US$) excluding local access and installation fees.

Highest between South and SE Asia:

Median 10 Gbps Monthly Lease Prices, 2015

Source: TeleGeography Global Bandwidth & IP Pricing Trends, Brianna Boudreau, January 2016.

Terrestrial link

Submarine cable

Infrastructure dictates bandwidth price

• “…..price levels vary by

region and between

terrestrial and subsea

deployments.

• Upgrades to 100Gbps

equipment on terrestrial

networks have been rapid in

recent years as bandwidth

demand has increased, and

European and intra-US

terrestrial routes exhibit the

lowest 100Gbps prices

globally. ”

Source: TeleGeography. 100G: are the potential

savings worth the investment? 4 Jun 2015

Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia.

Infrastructure is all about right-of-way

Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways.

World’s most resilient right-of-way

Asian Highway has linked 32 countries.

A cross-border meshed network is to be built.

International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps)

by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs)

Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography. Figures represent Internet bandwidth at

international borders. Data as of mid-year. Data of Afghanistan is not available .

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kazakhstan 786 1,474 3,752 11,123 36,967 74,368 119,456259,089463,218626,795

Armenia 62 130 158 974 4,354 10,574 29,858 39,366 79,500135,000

Mongolia 14 167 2,169 3,621 6,372 11,180 17,280 26,085 37,650 53,825

Nepal 41 85 199 1,085 1,775 4,865 7,960 12,300 19,100 26,750

Uzbekistan 163 239 498 1,085 1,332 3,822 6,997 10,729 13,062 19,906

Laos 57 326 481 756 1,616 2,682 4,190 6,522 9,370 13,400

Kyrgyzstan 130 398 524 1,019 1,335 2,005 4,662 5,904 7,923 10,725

Bhutan 22 30 75 116 330 485 640 940 5,455 5,765

Tajikistan 46 68 129 179 235 595 2,174 3,104 4,815 6,526

Turkmenistan 20 30 344 54 69 290 400 775 1,242 2,019

International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps)

by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs)626,795

135,000

53,825

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Mongolia

Nepal

Uzbekistan

Laos

Kyrgyzstan

Bhutan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography.

Figures represent Internet bandwidth at international borders. Data as of mid-year.

Armenia calling: July 17, 2008

The license will grant the right to own and operate a telecommunications network

in the territory of the Republic of Armenia, and provide any type of

telecommunications services including GSM services, 3G and any other voice or data

services, subject to the applicable laws and regulations.

Any local or foreign company may participate in the tender, subject to pre-qualification

requirements.

Meteoric rise of Armenia,

Mongolia slips, Nepal beats Uzbekistan.

39,366

79,500

135,000

53,825

26,75019,906

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Armenia

Mongolia

Nepal

Uzbekistan

Laos

Kyrgyzstan

Bhutan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Incumbent overpowers UZ regulator

• December 10, 2004: Uzbekenergo (Power grid) and Uzbekistan Railway were granted licenses for five years to “provide long distance telecommunication services” ensuring “access to its networks for other operators and providers on equal terms”.

• November 4, 2009: Both the licenses were extended for further five years (i.e., until December 12, 2014).

• State-owned Uzbek Telecom is yet to allow either of the license to be functional!

Laos outpace Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan beats

Bhutan, Turkmenistan is trailing.

13,400

10,725

5,765

6,526

2,019

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Laos

Kyrgyzstan

Bhutan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Landlocked, double landlocked

and highly active seismic zone.

Major earthquakes in Central Asia

Kazakhstan: January 3, 1911, Chon-Kemin earthquake (M7.8)

Turkmenistan: October 5, 1948, Ashgabat earthquake, (M7.3)

Tajikistan: July 10, 1949, Khait earthquake (M7.5)

Uzbekistan: April 26, 1966, Tashkent earthquake (M7.5)

Armenia: December 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake (M6.8)

Kyrgyzstan: August 19, 1992, Suusamyr earthquake (M7.3)

Tajikistan: December 7, 2015, Murghob earthquake (M7.2)

Earthquake impacts mobile networks

• RAN installations along with PDH and SDH microwave backhauls are collapsed.

• Nationwide and metro OFC transmission networks are either fully or partially damaged.

• Distribution and transmission systems of power is either fully or partially damaged.

• Compromised: Storage and supply facilities of gasoline.

• Maintenance and operational staffs are victims too!

Invaluable lessons from China

April 20, 2013. YA'AN, China. The 6.6- magnitude quake hit a remote

mountainous area of southwestern Sichuan province at 8:02 a.m.

Resulted from a comprehensive plan

• Within six hours of the

quake, Internet and phone

connections were partially

restored in Baoxing county.

• By late afternoon China’s

big three carriers said

phone calls, text messaging

and roaming services would

be free in quake-stricken

areas.

• They advised people to use

text messaging instead of

making calls, as it requires

less bandwidth.

Zhang Bin, a Chinese People's Liberation Army

soldier, carries a 60-year-old survivor as he runs

down a stretch of the road to Lingguan township

which was recently cleared of debris from landslides

caused by Saturday's earthquake, in Baoxing county

in Ya'an, Sichuan province April 22, 2013.

REUTERS/Jason Lee

Weibo: An 'Encouraging step forward'

• With more than 500 million users, Weibo - the Internet equivalent of

Twitter. Information about how people could themselves rescue

friends and neighbors hit by the quake was also quickly spread

through forums like Weibo.

• There were other ideas about what should be done; tolls for

highways to the affected areas should be suspended and clinics

should treat the injured for free and public buildings should, where

necessary, be opened up for the needy.

• Where these appeals were not heeded, those involved were

immediately pilloried via Weibo.

• Users are by and large agreed that the influence of social networks

has grown significantly since the 2008 quake. As one Weibo user

wrote: "Is this not an encouraging step forward?"

Nepal Telecom TX rides on power grid

China’s 22,300 km fiber follows AH Source: Ruyu Zhao, Transport Planning and Research Institute, MOC, China.

Nepal should seriously consider to use it.

TAPI gas

pipeline →

Energy comes to

South Asia and

Internet goes to

Central Asia

New kids on the block. Who’s next?

Google: Unity (2010), SJC (2013), FASTER (2016)*, COTA (2016).

Microsoft: Hibernia Express (2015), AEConnect (2015), NCP (2015),

Seabras-1 (2016).

Facebook: APG (2015). *Equinix

Points to ponder

• Introduce nationwide single toll-free “Emergency” number, as 911 is in the USA.– ESCAP should persuade the member states to adopt a common “Emergency”

number in the national numbering plan across the region.

• Replace microwave backhaul with FTTH and co-locate Wi-Fi at mobile access points in the metro area.– Transmission, not access, antenna is harmful to health.

• Maximize active and passive infrastructure sharing through open access.– Enforce structural separation, if required. Encourage the usage of renewable

energy.

• Diversify national and international backhaul through all possible optical fiber networks.– OPGW in the power grid, SCADA optical fiber along the gas pipelines and fiber

along the railway tracks should be considered as the national telecoms assets.