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National Perspectives on Communications
Resilience among LLDCs
UN ESCAP Workshop on knowledge and policy gaps
in disaster risk reduction and development planning
Bangkok, Thailand
March 8-9, 2016
Abu Saeed Khan
Ericsson Mobility Report November 2015
Is Asia Pacific ready for 2021?
• Spectrum is critical for GSM/EDGE. Internet is additionally critical for WCDMA/HSPA, LTE/5G.
• International connectivity is the lifeline of IP Transit, Cloud, CDN, Data Centers, Peering etc.
• Carriers are centralized in SG and HK. IP Transit is disproportionately expensive in the region.
• Major regulatory roadblocks in Asia: – Spectrum lacks technology-neutrality (Demand-side
problem).
– International connectivity only through submarine cables (Supply-side problem).
– No carrier-neutral submarine cable, cable landing stations, gateways, metro and domestic TX networks (Broadband supply chain problem).
ITU’s “Measuring the Information Society
Report 2015” (Selected Asian economies)9
0.6
%
87
.9%
85
.5%
84
.6%
82
.0%
74
.6%
67
.5%
49
.3%
48
.3%
37
.9%
34
.9%
25
.8%
18
.0%
17
.1%
Individual Internet users (Fixed & Mobile 2014)
3,345
617
95 75 49 47 43 28 27 21 13 6 6 5
International bandwidth per Internet user (Kbps, 2014)
669X
103X
“Akamai state of the Internet Q3 2015”
Broadband inequality across Asia Pacific
20.5
15.8 15.0
12.5
10.18.7 8.2 7.8
5.1 4.93.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5
Average speed (Mbps)
96% 93% 92% 90% 88% 87% 87%76% 72%
52%
33% 31%
17% 14% 10%
>4 Mbps
68%
59%54%
51%
29%22%
18% 18%
4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
>10 Mbps
45.0%
36.0%32.0%
27.0%
13.0%
8.2% 7.4% 5.8%
0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
>15 Mbps
Tale of two continents:
Akamai reveals the qualitative difference
20.5
15.815.0
12.5
10.18.7 8.2 7.8
5.1 4.93.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5
South
Korea
Hong Kong Japan Singapore Taiwan New
Zealand
Thailand Australia Sri Lanka Malaysia China Vietnam Indonesia Philippines India
Top 15 Asian markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015
17.416.4 16.2 15.6
14.8 14.5 14.013.1 13.0 12.8 12.4
11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2
Top 15 European markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015 Landlocked countries.
No direct access to submarine cables.
Asia vs. Europe: Median monthly IP
Transit prices per Mbps, 10 GigE, Q2 2015$
0.9
2
$0
.96
$0
.97
$1
.00
$1
.00
$1
.00
$1
.04
$1
.12
$1
.12
$1
.20
$1
.25
$1
.40
$4
.10
$4
.41
$5
.00 $
6.0
0
$8
.00 $
9.0
0 $1
0.0
0
$1
1.0
0
$1
4.5
0Source: TeleGeography. 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps. Prices (US$) excluding local access and installation fees.
Highest between South and SE Asia:
Median 10 Gbps Monthly Lease Prices, 2015
Source: TeleGeography Global Bandwidth & IP Pricing Trends, Brianna Boudreau, January 2016.
Terrestrial link
Submarine cable
Infrastructure dictates bandwidth price
• “…..price levels vary by
region and between
terrestrial and subsea
deployments.
• Upgrades to 100Gbps
equipment on terrestrial
networks have been rapid in
recent years as bandwidth
demand has increased, and
European and intra-US
terrestrial routes exhibit the
lowest 100Gbps prices
globally. ”
Source: TeleGeography. 100G: are the potential
savings worth the investment? 4 Jun 2015
Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia.
Infrastructure is all about right-of-way
Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways.
World’s most resilient right-of-way
Asian Highway has linked 32 countries.
A cross-border meshed network is to be built.
International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps)
by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs)
Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography. Figures represent Internet bandwidth at
international borders. Data as of mid-year. Data of Afghanistan is not available .
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kazakhstan 786 1,474 3,752 11,123 36,967 74,368 119,456259,089463,218626,795
Armenia 62 130 158 974 4,354 10,574 29,858 39,366 79,500135,000
Mongolia 14 167 2,169 3,621 6,372 11,180 17,280 26,085 37,650 53,825
Nepal 41 85 199 1,085 1,775 4,865 7,960 12,300 19,100 26,750
Uzbekistan 163 239 498 1,085 1,332 3,822 6,997 10,729 13,062 19,906
Laos 57 326 481 756 1,616 2,682 4,190 6,522 9,370 13,400
Kyrgyzstan 130 398 524 1,019 1,335 2,005 4,662 5,904 7,923 10,725
Bhutan 22 30 75 116 330 485 640 940 5,455 5,765
Tajikistan 46 68 129 179 235 595 2,174 3,104 4,815 6,526
Turkmenistan 20 30 344 54 69 290 400 775 1,242 2,019
International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps)
by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs)626,795
135,000
53,825
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Mongolia
Nepal
Uzbekistan
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Bhutan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography.
Figures represent Internet bandwidth at international borders. Data as of mid-year.
Armenia calling: July 17, 2008
The license will grant the right to own and operate a telecommunications network
in the territory of the Republic of Armenia, and provide any type of
telecommunications services including GSM services, 3G and any other voice or data
services, subject to the applicable laws and regulations.
Any local or foreign company may participate in the tender, subject to pre-qualification
requirements.
Meteoric rise of Armenia,
Mongolia slips, Nepal beats Uzbekistan.
39,366
79,500
135,000
53,825
26,75019,906
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Armenia
Mongolia
Nepal
Uzbekistan
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Bhutan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Incumbent overpowers UZ regulator
• December 10, 2004: Uzbekenergo (Power grid) and Uzbekistan Railway were granted licenses for five years to “provide long distance telecommunication services” ensuring “access to its networks for other operators and providers on equal terms”.
• November 4, 2009: Both the licenses were extended for further five years (i.e., until December 12, 2014).
• State-owned Uzbek Telecom is yet to allow either of the license to be functional!
Laos outpace Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan beats
Bhutan, Turkmenistan is trailing.
13,400
10,725
5,765
6,526
2,019
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laos
Kyrgyzstan
Bhutan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Landlocked, double landlocked
and highly active seismic zone.
Major earthquakes in Central Asia
Kazakhstan: January 3, 1911, Chon-Kemin earthquake (M7.8)
Turkmenistan: October 5, 1948, Ashgabat earthquake, (M7.3)
Tajikistan: July 10, 1949, Khait earthquake (M7.5)
Uzbekistan: April 26, 1966, Tashkent earthquake (M7.5)
Armenia: December 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake (M6.8)
Kyrgyzstan: August 19, 1992, Suusamyr earthquake (M7.3)
Tajikistan: December 7, 2015, Murghob earthquake (M7.2)
Earthquake impacts mobile networks
• RAN installations along with PDH and SDH microwave backhauls are collapsed.
• Nationwide and metro OFC transmission networks are either fully or partially damaged.
• Distribution and transmission systems of power is either fully or partially damaged.
• Compromised: Storage and supply facilities of gasoline.
• Maintenance and operational staffs are victims too!
Invaluable lessons from China
April 20, 2013. YA'AN, China. The 6.6- magnitude quake hit a remote
mountainous area of southwestern Sichuan province at 8:02 a.m.
Resulted from a comprehensive plan
• Within six hours of the
quake, Internet and phone
connections were partially
restored in Baoxing county.
• By late afternoon China’s
big three carriers said
phone calls, text messaging
and roaming services would
be free in quake-stricken
areas.
• They advised people to use
text messaging instead of
making calls, as it requires
less bandwidth.
Zhang Bin, a Chinese People's Liberation Army
soldier, carries a 60-year-old survivor as he runs
down a stretch of the road to Lingguan township
which was recently cleared of debris from landslides
caused by Saturday's earthquake, in Baoxing county
in Ya'an, Sichuan province April 22, 2013.
REUTERS/Jason Lee
Weibo: An 'Encouraging step forward'
• With more than 500 million users, Weibo - the Internet equivalent of
Twitter. Information about how people could themselves rescue
friends and neighbors hit by the quake was also quickly spread
through forums like Weibo.
• There were other ideas about what should be done; tolls for
highways to the affected areas should be suspended and clinics
should treat the injured for free and public buildings should, where
necessary, be opened up for the needy.
• Where these appeals were not heeded, those involved were
immediately pilloried via Weibo.
• Users are by and large agreed that the influence of social networks
has grown significantly since the 2008 quake. As one Weibo user
wrote: "Is this not an encouraging step forward?"
Nepal Telecom TX rides on power grid
China’s 22,300 km fiber follows AH Source: Ruyu Zhao, Transport Planning and Research Institute, MOC, China.
Nepal should seriously consider to use it.
TAPI gas
pipeline →
Energy comes to
South Asia and
Internet goes to
Central Asia
New kids on the block. Who’s next?
Google: Unity (2010), SJC (2013), FASTER (2016)*, COTA (2016).
Microsoft: Hibernia Express (2015), AEConnect (2015), NCP (2015),
Seabras-1 (2016).
Facebook: APG (2015). *Equinix
Points to ponder
• Introduce nationwide single toll-free “Emergency” number, as 911 is in the USA.– ESCAP should persuade the member states to adopt a common “Emergency”
number in the national numbering plan across the region.
• Replace microwave backhaul with FTTH and co-locate Wi-Fi at mobile access points in the metro area.– Transmission, not access, antenna is harmful to health.
• Maximize active and passive infrastructure sharing through open access.– Enforce structural separation, if required. Encourage the usage of renewable
energy.
• Diversify national and international backhaul through all possible optical fiber networks.– OPGW in the power grid, SCADA optical fiber along the gas pipelines and fiber
along the railway tracks should be considered as the national telecoms assets.