national s&t foresight system in russia · future demand for skills foresight for civil society...
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National S&T Foresight System in Russia:
opportunities for the growth of high-tech-industries?
Alexander Chulok
Deputy HeadHSE ISSEK International Foresight Centre
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Global challenges require revision of STI policy agenda
photo
S&T Foresight System
•Evidence -based analysis•Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing•Communication and networking•Stakeholder engagement•Integration to policy
Global Challenges Grand Responses
Demand for new skills
Policy mix
New economic paradigm
New instruments
for STI policy
Changing society
Multidisciplinary and multicultural
research
Changing National Innovation Systems
Enhancing Infrastructure, networks
Changing global value chains and traditional leaders
Globalization vs localization
Increasing influence of technologies
Russia
Foresight generations: Russia and foreign countries
Technology forecasts projects
Forecast and foresight projects with technology,
markets and macroeconomic inputs and NIS
context
Forecast and foresight projects with technology,
markets and global social dimensions,
inc. Grand Challenges
1970 1980 1990 2000 2011
Japan
Complex Program of S&T development
USSR
FranceNetherlands
CanadaSwedenAustralia
More that 10 countries
GermanyS. Korea
UK….
Other
More that 15
countries
USA JapanSpain
S. AfricaBrazilChina
….Other
Morethan 50
countries
USA
2015
Foresight 2.0, 3.0…..
What’s next?
More than 2000 projects
Morethan 100 countries, including Ukraine, Belarus,
Bashkortostan
Integration to STI policy
More than 70 S&T
Foresight projects
National, regional,
corporate levels
Expert networks
Building national
Foresight system
Cuba
•Combination: national Foresights and specific, problem-oriented projects
•Involvement of society and networks
•Changing STI policy agenda
Rapid growth of Foresight studies at all levels creates a platform for complex S&T Foresight system
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142006 2007
Critical technologies(national)
S&T Foresight 2025
STI priorities for natural resources
Foresight for nanoindustry markets
Foresight for ICT and mass-media
2030
STI priorities for Bashkortostan
STI priorities for Moscow
STI priorities for Samara
Tomskinnovation
infrastructure
STI priorities for Tula
Regional clusters
Roadmap for power engineering equipment
Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy)
Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry
Roadmap for water purification
Roadmap for composite materials
Roadmaps for energy efficiency
Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream
Roadmaps for technology platforms
Programmes of innovative development of state-owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al.
Foresight forshipbuilding
Critical technologies (national)
Software – Interaction with expert network
Online database on global technology trends
Software – Interactive technology roadmaps
Future demand for skills
Foresight for civil society
Sectoral and corporate level
Foresight infrastructure
Roadmap for space navigation
S&T Foresight for aircraft
sector
Concept of a roadmap for automotive industry:
FCV
Roadmap for LED manufacturing
2015
Roadmaps for aviation
Sectoral Foresight systems
Critical technologies
(sectoral)
Network of sectoral S&T
Foresight centres
1996 – 1997: Initiation of Foresight projects in Russia
(HSE team)
Regional level
Federal level
Regional Foresight
(education)
National Foresight system
Critical technologies (national)
S&T Foresight 2040
Foresight for National
universities (5/100)
S&T Foresight 2030
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Technology Foresight system covers federal, sectoral and territorial levels…
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Russian S&T Foresight
Forecast of socioeconomic development
Budget forecast
Socioeconomic development strategy for
Russia
Strategic objectives and priorities of socio-economic development, including S&T
development (Addresses of the President of Russia)
Development strategy for macro-regions
State S&T development programme
Strategic foresight
Priority S&T areas and critical technologies for Russia
Nat
iona
l lev
el
Spatial development strategy
Development programmes for innovative regional clusters
Reg
iona
l lev
el
Sectoral strategies
Sectoral priority areas and critical technologies
Sectoral S&T foresights
Sect
oral
leve
l
Regional government programmesCompanies’
programmesand targets
Strategic research
programmes for technology platforms
Technology roadmaps Sectoral
government programmes
• Even companies in sectors with longproduct life cycle have short planninghorizons
• Corporate R&D units fulfill tacticaltasks, concerning mostly adaptation and«fine-turning» of foreign technologies
• Innovation and disruptive technologiesare not the key factor of companies’competitiveness
… but long-term Government initiatives do not compensate for companies’ short-term vision
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Business
• Need to develop a national expert system (national expert status)
• Insufficient number of communication platforms to discuss results of forecasts and foresight studies
• Improving Foresight culture among key players, lack of competences
Government
Expert networks / Society
• Organisation of Foresight: ‘spraying’ of resources and, as a consequence, having problems with coherence and formation of a single unified document
• Lack of systemic coordination between key ministries and agencies
• Transition from thematic to problem-oriented priorities, taking into account specific features of institutional environment, groundwork, infrastructure
Russian S&T Foresight is aimed at identifying the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia towards 2030, to ensure implementation of the nation’s competitive advantages.
Russian S&T Foresight 2030 sets “radar” for future long-term strategies
*S&T Foresight 2030 is designed across the priority areas of S&T in the Russian Federation (approved by Presidential Decree,07.07.2011, № 899)
Information and communication technologies
Life sciences (medicine & biotechnology)
New materials and nanotechnology
Rational use of natural resources
Transport and space systems
Energy efficiency and energy saving
S&T areas*Global trends
Estimated effects
Challenges and windows of opportunity
Markets
Product groups
Prospective market niches
Thematic S&T areas
Global centres of excellence
Assessment of the R&D level in Russia
Priority tasks for R&D
Information base (more than 200 sources)
GLO
BAL
CO
NTE
XTN
ATIO
NA
L C
ON
TEXT
Horizon scanningBibliometric and patent analysesWild cards and weak signals
Stakeholder mappingIn-depth interviews, focus groupsExpert panels
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Consortium of leading Foresight centres in 2014 (including major universities, research organisations and R&D
centres)
The network comprises more than 600 organisations and over 1,250 experts
Number of organizations Number of experts
S&T Foresight 2030 results are based on “technology push” and “market pull” approach
More than 150 globaltrends in the
economy, science, politics and society
Assessment of effects and most
relevant timeframes for challenges and
windows of opportunity
More than 1,000 specific priority
R&D tasksCharacteristics of more than 80 prospective markets and 250 product groups
Priority S&T areas Key sectors of the economy
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Publications
Radical products and services – R&D outcomes
2015 2020 2025 20302015202020252030
Metacomputing “Smart” businesses
“Smart” infrastructures
Cloud solutions
“Internet of things”
Devices for monitoring the currentstate of the body
Bioelectronicinterfaces
Drug delivery systems
Biocompatible materials
Nanostructured composite materials
with special properties
Emitters basedon nano-
heterostructures
Electronic elements based on graphene, fullerenes, carbon
nanotubes, quantum dots
Memristor-based electronic elements
Monitoring of environment,
assessmentand forecasting of
natural and technogenicemergencies
Liquefied natural gas
Fuel cells
High capacity electrochemical energy storages“Smart” networks
Nano
Molecular self-assemblyand self-
organisationof nanomechanical
systems
Technologies and materials for 3D printing
Augmented reality
Illustrative example
10 National Research University – Higher School of Economics
Medicine and health
Molecular diagnostics for prophylactic and personalised medicine
Exploration, development and research of promising drug candidates by assigning
molecular pharmacological targets
Biodegradable and composite medical materials
Bioelectrodynamics and X-ray medicine
Human proteomics
Transport and space systems
Energy efficiency and power saving
Environment management
Information and telecommunication
systems
New materials and
nanotechnology
Functional materials
Hybrid materials and convergent technologies
Construction materials
Computer modelling of materials and
processesMaterials
diagnostics
Information processing
technologies
Computer architectures and
systems
Telecommunication technologies
Component base, electronic
devices, robotics
Promising technologies for environment monitoring and
assessment, and forecasting of natural and anthropogenic
emergencies
Environment preservation and
safety technologies
Exploration, prospecting and integrated use of mineral and
hydrocarbon resources
Development of integrated transport
environment
Increasing transport systems’ safety and
environmental properties
Intelligent energy systems of the future
Modelling promising energy technologies
and systems
Promising energy
technologiesEfficient use of
power
Predictive modelling, techniques and tools for
developing and maintaining promising systems
Information security
Algorithms and software
Biotechnology
Agribiotechnologies
Forest biotechnologies
Industrial biotechnologies
Development of methodologies for biotech research
Environmental biotechnologies
Food production biotechnologies
Aquabioculture
Human genome description for
prophylactic and personalised
medicine
Technologies, prototypes and stands
for developing promising transport and space systems
Exploration and utilisation of
oceanic, Arctic and Antarctic resources
New materials and catalysts for power engineering of the
future
Biomedical cellular
technologies
Major S&T Areas for the Future
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Materials for organic LEDs, flexible solar cells, displays
and light storages
Fluorescent materials activated with ions of rear earth and transition metals
Light emitting nanostructures
Nanostructured liquid crystal materials
Heat proof materials
Radiation proof materials
Intellectual and tuned construction
materials
Construction and functional
materials
Diagnostics of materials
Hybrid materials,convergent
technologies, biomimetic
materials and medical supplies
New materials
and nanotechnol
ogies
Computer modeling of materials and
processes
Materials with special
electromagnetic properties
High-strength materials
Wear and tear proof materials
Materials with specific
electromagnetic properties
Anticorrosion materials
Catalysts
Sensor materials
Binding materials
Membranes
Coatings changing light absorption under external
influence
Priority S&T areas split into detailed R&D tasks(a case of new materials and nanotechnologies)
Nanostrructured optical fibers and LEDs
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1. Priority S&T areas 2. Thematic fields 3. Applied R&D 4. Priority R&D tasks
National Research University – Higher School of Economics
Key managerial decisions: projects
Main products and services of
the industry
Trends, drivers of the industry’sdevelopment
Prospective demand areas for innovative
solutionsObjectives of the industry’s development
Roadmap for innovative development in ICT
TimelineTimeline
Links between the elements
The group of inter-connected elements
(a single color scale is used)
Opportunities for Using Foresight Results to Form STI Policy Measures
Trends and challenges
Markets
Products, services
R&D priorities
Recommendations
Foresight results
Development institutions
Government
Research institutionsCompanies
Universities Society
Development of a research agenda Integration into global research space
Search for «objective» criteria to select priorities for state support«Fine tuning» of the existing instruments and build up of a line of new onesInvolvement of business and societyOpenness, availability and practical relevance of foresight resultsElimination of interdepartmental barriers
Development of long-termstrategies and plans Technological modernisation Integration into global valuechains
Development of educational programmes Development of a research agenda Build up of a development strategy Development of innovative environment
Communication platforms Joint projects and initiatives
New behavioral models Change of the consumer preferences
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Sectoral Foresight studies are in open access – next step is yours!
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http://issek.hse.ru/analitreports
