national statistical coordination board slide no. 0 third quarter 2010 p erformance of the p...

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDSlide No. 1

Third Quarter 2010Third Quarter 2010

Performance of the Philippine Economy

Presented byROMULO A. VIROLA

Secretary General

National Statistical Coordination Board25 November 2010


Economic Performance(Growth rates, in percent)

Economic Performance(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

GDP

GNP

NFIA

Third Quarter Q1 to Q3

6.5

13.7

7.54.1

0.2

35.2 31.6

0.7

4.0

10.3

7.5

7.9


Seasonal Adjustment(Growth rates, in percent)

Seasonal Adjustment(Growth rates, in percent)

2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

GDP

GNP

2010

-0.5

1.2

3.71.6 1.4

1.92.1 1.8


GDP

Growth Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower UpperLimit Limit Limit Limit Limit Limit

Q3 2010

99%

Confidence Interval

Period 90% 95%

6.5 6.2 6.7 6.1 6.7 6.0 6.8

Confidence Intervals

for the True Growth Rateof the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Confidence Intervals

for the True Growth Rateof the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


Per Capita GDP, GNP, PCE(Growth rates, in percent)

Per Capita GDP, GNP, PCE(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

GDP

GNP

PCE


5.4

2.75.8

1.72.0

-1.3

0.62.1

-1.7 4.4

2.25.5


Major Industries(Growth rates, in percent)Major Industries

(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

AFF

Industry

Services


-2.5

7.7

9.2-4.8

1.4

3.4 2.7

1.2

-2.7

7.1

-2.8

13.7


Seasonal AdjustmentMajor Industries (Growth rates, in percent)

Seasonal AdjustmentMajor Industries (Growth rates, in percent)

2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

AFF

Industry

Services

2010

1.9

0.3

-4.4

-0.2-2.4 -0.3

4.40.3 0.8

4.76.0 3.0


Contributions to GDP GrowthContributions to GDP Growth

AFF

Industry

Services

GDP

Q3 2010

3.91

-0.43

2.97

6.46


Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry(Growth rates, in percent)

Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

AFF

Palay

Corn

Coconut / copra

Sugarcane

Banana

Other crops

Livestock

Poultry

Agri. Activities

Fishery

Forestry


-82.8-1.6

-24.8-2.4

2.32.7

-1.04.28.93.5

-7.3

2.90.82.4

-19.94.0

-1.72.03.52.23.0

-10.7

1.55.24.2

10.53.00.81.31.82.2

-0.6-2.1

-14.9-15.4

-0.4-19.2

1.22.81.13.01.60.8

-13.4

1.4 -2.5 1.2 -2.8


Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Q3 2010AFF 3.92

Palay 1.64

Corn 1.61

Coconut / copra 0.63

Sugarcane 0.36

Banana 0.26

Other Crops 0.17

Livestock 0.17

Poultry -0.12

Agricultural Activities -0.15

Fishery -0.21

Forestry -0.45

-2.49-3.97

0.43-0.120.43

0.79

-0.23

-0.220.08

-0.07

-0.06

0.46


Industry(Growth rates, in percent)

Industry(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

Industry

Mining & Quarrying

Manufacturing

Construction

Electricity & Water


9.3

9.24.6

11.18.1

-2.7

-7.722.9

12.9-3.8

-4.8

-7.929.5

2.0-6.3

13.918.6

14.28.3

13.7


Industry (Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Industry (Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Industry

Mining & Quarrying 4.33

Manufacturing 1.00

Construction 2.00

Electricity & Water 3.00

Q32010

6.31

9.170.24

1.740.88


TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.

Third Quarter 2010

Electrical Machinery 3.70

Basic Metal Industries 1.42

Manufacturing(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)


Products of Petroleum & Coal 3.16

Miscellaneous Manufactures 0.95




LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.

Third Quarter 2010

Food Manufactures -2.01

Tobacco Manufactures -0.80

Footwear Wearing Apparel -0.26


Services(Growth rates, in percent)

Services(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

Services

Transport., Comm., Stor.

Trade

Finance

O. Dwellings & Real Estate

Private Services

Government Services


7.7

11.73.5

7.2

9.1

-1.3

8.4

3.4

-1.51.6

11.5-2.36.78.9

2.7

0.4

1.8

5.9-1.4

5.67.2

7.1

1911.1

5.57.77.64.5


Services (Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Services (Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Q32010

Services 8.4

TCS 2.8

Trade 1.8

Finance 1.5

ODRE 1.4

Private Services 0.6

Government Services 0.3

4.030.55

1.34

0.89

-0.12

1.05

7.75


IndicatorsSupporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2010


INDICATOR GROWTH RATE

Employment Up by 2.2 % - Mining and Quarrying Up by 9.6 %- Manufacturing Up by 1.6 %- Construction Up by 3.2 %- TCS Up by 0.1% - Trade Up by 4.8 %- Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Business

Up by 8.0 %

Mean Hours Worked- Mining and Quarrying Up by 4.59 %- Manufacturing Up by 0.46 %- TCS Up by 0.08 %- Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Business

Up by 0.69 %

- Community, Social & Personal Services

Up by 37.31 %




INDICATOR GROWTH RATEManufacturing (July-Aug)

- Value of Production IndexUp by 15.8 %

- Volume of Production Index Up by 23.8 %

- Capacity Utilization Up by 2.0 %- Value of Net Sales Index Up by 11.3 %- Volume Of Net Sales Index

Up by 19.0 %

Sales of Cement Up by 4.7 %Volume of Car Sales Up by 33.7 %

- Passenger Car Up by 37.3 %- Commercial Vehicle Up by 31.7 %

Coal Production ( In Metric Tons) Up by 18.08 %




INDICATOR GROWTH RATEGross Revenue

- Key Players in Real Estate Up by 23.4 %

- Key Players in Retail trading Up by 16.91 %

- Selected Broadcasting Companies Up by 8.4 %

- Selected Fast Food Chains Up by 10.4 %

Water Gross Billed Volume Up by 2.9 %Water Gross Sales Up by 22.0 %Rail Ridership

- Volume of Passenger Up by 3.5 % - Gross Revenue Up by 6.1 %

Subscribers base (cellular) – stock Up by 11.6 % Subscribers base (fixed line) – stock Up by 4.9 %Outstanding Loans of Commercial Banks Up by 6.0 %




INDICATOR GROWTH RATEExports of Goods (FOB value in million US$)

Up by 39.8 %

Imports Of Goods (FOB value in million US$) ( Jul-Aug)

Up by 19.5 %

Imports of Capital Goods (FOB value in million US$) (Jul-Aug)

Up by 10.4 %

Tourist/Visitor Arrivals (Jul-Aug) Up by 30.2 %Overseas Filipinos’ Remittances ($)

Up by 9.5 %

CPI Inflation for Q3 2010 Up by 3.8 %Peso Appreciation Q3 2010 Up by 6.4 %


2009 2010 2009 2010PCEGov't ConsumptionConstructionDurable EquipmentBSODAMerchandise ExportsExports of Non-Factor Svcs

Merchandise ImportsImports of Non-Factor Svcs


Expenditure(Growth rates, in percent)

Expenditure(Growth rates, in percent)

12.12.6

2.8-3.51.4

-14.4-4.1-1.7

-13.8

12.2

4.2-6.1

16.42.2

28.039.516.049.5

9.1

3.710.1

-14.3-1.0

-19.86.9

-5.1-4.6

15.9

4.76.3

24.52.2

28.922.819.329.9


Expenditure(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Expenditure(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

Q3

2010

PCE

Gov't Consump.

Construction

Durable Equip.

BSODA

Changes in Stocks

Net Exports

GDP

3.36

-0.45

1.11

1.24

0.02

-0.90

6.12

6.46


Construction(Growth rates, in percent)

Construction(Growth rates, in percent)

2009 2010 2009 2010

Construction

Public

Private


12.2-24.041.1

23.32.8

-9.2

15.9

23.08.3

9.1

-3.627.0


Top 5 Merchandise Exports(In percent)

Top 5 Merchandise Exports(In percent)

Contributors to Growth C ontr i buti ons

to G r owth

76.3Finished Electrical Machinery

20.2Garments

22.8Crude Coconut Oil

76.3Other Prods. Manufactured

95.1Semiconductors and Electric Microcircuits 9.56

6.38

1.06

0.76

0.34

Q3 2010Growth Rates


Least Contributorsto Growth

C ontr i buti ons

to G r owth

-32.2Dessicated Coconut

-40.1Gold from Copper Ores

-27.6Prepared Tuna

-43.0Centrifugal Sugar

-58.3Iron Agglomerates -0.26

-0.21

-0.11

-0.10

-0.10

Bottom 5 Merchandise Exports(In percent)

Bottom 5 Merchandise Exports(In percent)

Q3 2010Growth Rates


Top 5 Merchandise Imports(In percent)

Top 5 Merchandise Imports(In percent)

Contributors to GrowthC on t r ibut ion s

t o G r owt h

13.8Electrical Machinery, Apparatus and Appliances

75.6Cereal and Cereal Products

2.73

2.41

23.2Machinery Other Than Electrical Machinery 2.25

46.5Fertilizer 0.96

6.4Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 0.52

Q3 2010Growth Rates


Least Contributorsto Growth

C ontr i buti ons

to G r owth

2.7Paper Products 0.03

Bottom Merchandise Imports(In percent)

Bottom Merchandise Imports(In percent)

Q3 2010Growth Rates

13.9Textile Fibers 0.06

2.5Textile Yarns 0.08

4.8Feeding Stuff 0.18

5.6Chemical Elements & Compounds 0.20


Net Factor Income from AbroadNet Factor Income from Abroad

2009 2010 2009 2010

INFLOWCompensation

Property Income

Total

OUTFLOWCompensation

Property Expense

Total

NET FACTOR INCOME


5.7

-17.5

10.3

-24.2

3.8

4.5

0.0

-17.5

-41.130.7

24.5

0.0

3.831.6

-0.7

30.7-35.226.0

0.0

-0.735.2

1.8

-49.7

13.7

-21.31.0

0.0

-49.7


OFW DetailsOFW Details

Growth2009 2010 Rate

Compensation in Dollars (in billion) 7.43 8.28 11.4 in Peso (in billion) 357.89 374.88 4.7 Deployment 367,693 345,735 -6.0

Third Quarter


Preliminary Revised ContributionAs of Aug 2010 As of Nov 2010 to Revision

PRODUCTION

Second Quarter 2010 Revisions(Growth Rates as of August 2010 and as of November 2010)

Second Quarter 2010 Revisions(Growth Rates as of August 2010 and as of November 2010)

-3.0-2.8

-37.815.8

6.4

36.312.422.68.4

4.27.82.29.46.77.67.9

7.97.7

-3.2-2.9

-37.916.1

6.7

37.412.722.58.6

3.59.11.79.07.17.98.2

7.63.9

-0.02-0.020.000.09

0.01

0.030.06

-0.01

0.15-0.060.21

-0.04-0.020.040.020.30

-0.34-0.53

AFFAGRICULTURE & FISHERYFORESTRY

INDUSTRYMINING & QUARRYINGMANUFACTURINGCONSTRUCTIONELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER

SERVICESTRANS., COMM & STORAGETRADEFINANCEODREPRIVATE SERVICESGOVERNMENT SERVICES

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTN F I A

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT


AnnouncementsAnnouncements1. Approved FDI up by 83 percent in Q3 2010

Total foreign direct investments (FDI) approved in the third quarter of 2010 by the four major investment promotion agencies (IPAs), namely: Board of Investments (BOI), Clark Development Corporation (CDC), Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), and Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) amounted to PhP 19.0 billion, up by 82.9 percent from PhP 10.4 billion approved in the third quarter of 2009.

Total A ppr ove d FDI in Q1, Q2, Q3 an d Fir s t NIne M onths

2009 and 2010

4.0

19.910.4

34.3

46.7

13.819.0

79.4

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan - Sep

in b

illio

n p

eso

s

2009 2010


AnnouncementsAnnouncements2. Search for Achievers in Statistics in Western Visayas

The Regional Statistical Coordination Committee Region 6 (RSCC 6) launched the first Search for Achievers in Statistics (SAS) in Western Visayas. Qualified for nomination are practicing or retired statisticians who are residents of Western Visayas and whose dedication and long-standing commitment have contributed significantly to the promotion of statistics and have made a dent in the lives of the people in Region 6. Criteria for evaluation are service, integrity, and professionalism. Awarding of winners will be in October 2011. Nomination will start next month.

Interested parties may contact RSCC 6 thru NSCB Regional Division 6 located at Luna St., La Paz, Iloilo City with telephone numbered (033) 3200513 or email address [email protected].


AnnouncementsAnnouncements3. NSCB conducts Statistical Appreciation Seminar for the media

To enhance the partnership between the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) and the media in improving data dissemination and communication strategies, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) will conduct a Statistical Appreciation Seminar for the Media on January 15, 2010 (Saturday) from 8:00am to 5:00pm at the NSCB Operations Room.

The seminar aims to promote the use of statistics in evidence-based decision making towards good governance as well as to serve as a venue for exchange of ideas and discussions on statistical analysis and data interpretation that would enhance the relevance of PSS statistical products and strengthen media’s capacity in writing stories behind the statistics.


AnnouncementsAnnouncements3. NSCB conducts Statistical Appreciation Seminar for the media cont….

Among the topics to be covered during the whole day seminar include basic concepts as well as sources and methodologies of the Philippine System of National Accounts and its related accounts, poverty statistics, and other indicators produced by the NSCB.

For inquiries, please contact, Mr. Ruben V. Litan of the National Statistical Information Center at 890-9405 or email at [email protected]


Thank you very much.Thank you very much.

visit: www. nscb.gov.phvisit: www. nscb.gov.ph

national statistical coordination board slide no. 0 third quarter 2010 p erformance of the p...

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