national support to improve air...
TRANSCRIPT
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For our Environment
National support to improve air quality?
TFIAM, Tallinn, 28-29 June 2018
Andreas Eisold Section II 4.1 / General Aspects of Air Quality Control with support from Marcel Langner, Johanna Appelhans, Kevin Hausmann, Stefan Feigenspan, Stephan Nordmann
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Outline
• National Emissions and Reduction Commitments
• Measures
• Impact on Air Quality – First Estimation
• Study on Health Effects of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 2
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 3
0
500
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3.000
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ab 2
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ab 2
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Emiss
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n in
kt/
a
Emissions 1990 bis 2016 (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany
SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft)
NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3
PM2.5
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
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2012
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2015
2016
ab 2
020
2025
ab 2
030
Emiss
ions
in k
t/a
Emissions 2005 - 2016 (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany
SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft)
NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3
PM2.5
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 5
National measures to reduce emissions • Large Combustion Plants – LCP BREF/BAT conclusions –
13.BImSchV • Medium Combustion Plants – MCP-Directive – 44.BImSchV • Small Stationary Combustion – Ecodesign Directive – 1.BImSchV • Road Traffic – Fleet renewal through Euro-Standards + Software-
Updates and Retrofitting of Cars and Busses + Modal split + E-mobility
• Agriculture – Tackle the whole nitrogen cycle • ? Decarbonization of the energy sector ? (‘Exit from the coal’)
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 6
Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 7
Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015
Pollutant mean concentration
2005 µg/m³
mean concentration
2015 µg/m³
absolute difference
µg/m³
relative difference
%
NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 8
Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015 2005-2015 NO2 emission reduction – 340 kt – 21% further reduction required till 2030 – 609 kt
Pollutant mean concentration
2005 µg/m³
mean concentration
2015 µg/m³
absolute difference
µg/m³
relative difference
%
NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
NO2 annual means by station categories 2005-2016
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
NO2 annual means by station categories 2005-2016
remember: 2005 – 2015 = -2,76 µg/m³
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017
more than 60 stations exceeded the limit value remember: 2005 – 2015 = -2,76 µg/m³
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 12
Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017
Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 TEMO
Softwareupdates + Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 a,b,c und Benzin Euro
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 14
Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015 2005-2015 primaryPM2.5 emission reduction – 32 kt – 24% further reduction required till 2030 – 21 kt But there will also be substantial reductions of PM-precursors.
Pollutant mean concentration
2005 µg/m³
mean concentration
2015 µg/m³
absolute difference
µg/m³
relative difference
%
NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
PM10 annual means by station categories 2005-2016
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 16
0
10
20
30
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50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
PM10 annual means by station categories 2005-2016
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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PM2.5 JRC – Urban Atlas for Düsseldorf, Germany
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
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0
10
20
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40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
Experiment
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
Experiment 2
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
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TSAP Report #12 – Kiesewetter and Amann, IIASA
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
Experiment 2
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
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TSAP Report #12 – Kiesewetter and Amann, IIASA
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 21
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah
Experiment 2
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³
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UBA-Study by TNO and others (not yet published)
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 22
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UBA-Study by TNO and others (not yet published)
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 23
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 24
Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015
Pollutant mean concentration
2005 µg/m³
mean concentration
2015 µg/m³
absolute difference
µg/m³
relative difference
%
NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund
Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories 2005-2016
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn
National support to improve air quality
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Development National Air Pollution Control Programme
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016
µg/m
³
ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund
Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories 2005-2016
remember: 2005 – 2015 = O3 +1,81 µg/m³
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn
National support to improve air quality
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Conclusions
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 27
Impact of national measures (NAPCP) on local air quality • Impact on PM2.5 concentrations >> NO2
• Impact on O3 is depending on Compliance with the NEC-Directive in
all member states (as well as global emission reductions)
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
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NO2 modelled background Population Density 2011 concentration - annual mean
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 29
High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 30
High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 31
High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2
Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 32
High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2
Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3
NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it’s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 33
High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2
Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3
NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it’s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect
Years of Life Lost (YLL)
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09.07.2018 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 34
Thank you very much for your attention! Andreas Eisold [email protected] Phone: +49-340-2103-2683 http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/air
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Health Impact of NO2-concentrations
National support to improve air quality
28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 35