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Red River of the North2009 Record Flood Synopsis

Red River of the North2009 Record Flood Synopsis

Scott DummerNorth Central River Forecast Center

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2009 Flood Background Conditions:2009 Flood Background Conditions:

Colder than normal fall and winterWetter than normal late summer into fall

freeze upGreater than normal snow pack (but less

than 97)Quick initial melt: warm rain on snow

eventForecasted well by WFO for short term

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GoToMeeting Jan. 8, 2009 Addressed Significant Threat for Major FloodingGoToMeeting Jan. 8, 2009 Addressed Significant Threat for Major Flooding

CR, NOHRSC, NCRFC, WFO FGF, USACE, MN DNR, USGS, FEMA, NDSWC, Manitoba Water Resources, Wilkin County EM, Red Lake River Watershed District

Reviewed Red River Valley Current Conditions Discussed snow depths, frozen ground, soil

moisture Issued request for SWE Measurements As a result of Meeting, NCRFC issued early suite of

probabilistic forecasts for Red River Valley

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Fargo January 14 - April 30

Top 5 Climate Yrs19791969196519971975

Early Outlook prepared for GoTo Meeting presented Jan. 8, 2009; updated to AHPS web Jan. 9, 2009

1897 Record Flood 40.1 ft.

2009 Crest 40.8 ft

Large Shift – Key Indicator of Risk

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Modeling DifficultiesModeling Difficulties Lack of accurate and reliable gage data

Temperature Precipitation (radar and gage)SWE – Especially Manual SurveysAutomated river gages – Freeze-ups Ice affected stages – Ice Jams & induced Shifts

Temporary storage of runoff until conduits thaw (culverts, ditches, drainage tiles) - WaffleSnow mods used to retain volume artificially

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Modeling DifficultiesModeling Difficulties Inter-basin flows – “Break-outs”

Snow melt timing and rates

Frozen soil

Significant rating shifts and loops common

Hydraulic effects – “Valley” formed by GlacialLake Bed (slope six inches per mile)

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Unique ChallengesUnique ChallengesEarly spring rains

Ice affected stages during 1st crest

Complex Melt Scenario

Significant snow storm in middle of event

Overland flow became sheet ice

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Unique ChallengesUnique ChallengesSpecial issuance of probabilistic forecasts for

“Second Crest”

Unexpected quick warm up in far north basins (Pembina)

National Media Circus

“Uncharted territory” above top of rating

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Service SuccessesService Successes High participation rate on daily conf. calls

Data collecting coordination (SWE, etc) with states and local partners

Flow measurement Coordination (USGS, DNR)

Close USACE and USGS coordination through in-office liaisons

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Service SuccessesService SuccessesMedia brief workload distributed between

four offices – MPX SSH assisted SCH

“Katrina-like” planning done for service backup of WFO FGF at MPX

Early “heads-up” given to communities and local government officials in January

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Service SuccessesService SuccessesDaily coordination with NOHRSC allowed

quick data gaps closure via data acquisition and field reconnaissance.

Public-private partnership - Private sector coordination with those working for local communities in flood fight

Webinar briefings

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Service Short-fallsService Short-falls Partners received Forecast information at times

arrived before NWS EOC Staff

Mayor openly disagreeing w/ NWS crest forecasts hurt NWS credibility (psychology/local politics)

Continued dissatisfaction with and misuse of probabilistic outlooks.

Time Crunch - Difficulty producing timely information for the morning EOC briefings

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Unique & Innovative Techniques

Unique & Innovative Techniques

Aggressive outreach started early January (e.g. GoTo meetings, on-site meetings)

Predator B Live Video Feed - NOAA UAS Program

Hi-Res Satellite Imagery “Departure From Hydro-climatologic

Normal” outlooksNWSChat Interagency chat room

Major Flooding Departure From Hydro-Climatologic Normal

(CS – HS = “Departure”)

Major Flooding Departure From Hydro-Climatologic Normal

(CS – HS = “Departure”)

[13:30:45] <nws-andrea.holz…> Greg Kruse: what‘s your recent measurement at Alvarado?

[13:47:42] <nws-andrea.holz…> Also Roseau if you've got it[14:55:59] <nws-andrea.holz…> usgs-steve.m.robinson: crew visited the grafton

gage, dcp needs a -3.76 ft correction @ (04:17:52 PM) usgs-steve.m.robinson: the pressure sensor for the Grand Forks gage is drifting a bit due to the high flows. Apply a +.4 correction to the stage reading from the pressure transducer

[17:09:23] <usgs-james.d.fallon…> We have a technician shaking loose ice from frozen stilling well floats today at Hawley, Plummer, and Thief River Falls. Stage readings should be called in to NWS as each gage visited.

[17:11:17] <nws-andrea.holz…> Thank you James Fallon[17:36:16] <usgs-lorraine.d.leblanc…> 05101000 Tongue River At Akra,Today at

1025, Q=192, GH=10.41, Shift=+.56 ft, Clear[17:42:35] <nws-andrea.holz…> Thanks Lorraine

NWSChat Coordination Examplencrfcagencies chat room

NWSChat Coordination Examplencrfcagencies chat room

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Unique & Innovative Techniques

Unique & Innovative Techniques

Extended 6 day QPF for 1st crest forecasts worked well – Extended lead time to a week+

Extended temperatures 10 day forecast from Grand Forks WFO14 day NAEFS mean/median temperature

forecastRating extensions developed prior to

flooding

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SuccessesSuccessesUnprecedented interagency coordination

Federal, State, Municipal, Private ConsultantsExtended January probabilities through

April 30Advanced lead time > 30 days beyond normal

90 day outlookRecognized extreme & unique situation

where extended 6 Day QPF and Fcst Temps paid off Improved accuracyextended lead time to > week

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SuccessesSuccessesCoordination with NOHRSC pilots

Multiple gamma surveys conducted upon request

Daily coordination with Customs & Border Patrol Predator Live video feed extremely valuableExcellent visible imagery provided detailed

info at key points

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What did not work wellWhat did not work well Updated probabilities vs. updated deterministic –

2nd crest scenario identified immediate need for HEFS capability

User experience with major floods doesn’t match probability Recent major floods have crested near 10% exceedence User comments “we’re going to use 10% from now on”

for crest prediction Perceived lack of reliability in probabilistic outlooks

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What did not work wellWhat did not work well Rating extensions somewhat unreliable and

increased uncertainty Extensions established well in advance of flood did

not perform well

Lack of adequate preparation forinteragency liaisons Need to have logistics coordinated in advance

Lack of observed frost depth reports

SWE estimates

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What did not work wellWhat did not work wellRe-freezing of overland flow

Major factor in Fargo second crestCommon problem e.g. 1997 floodSac-HT shows possible improvement

DSS: “Scheduling of talking points”Coordination with CR EOC staff and HSD

restricted open interagency communication in morning operations

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ENDEND

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Fargo April 1 ESP1997 39.5 ft 2009 40.8 ft

Fargo April 1 ESP1997 39.5 ft 2009 40.8 ftGreater than 60% chance of exceeding 40.8 ft. on second crest

Observed crest 34.0 ft April 16

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2009 Flood Ambient Conditions:Snow Depth Departure from Normal - March 12

2009 Flood Ambient Conditions:Snow Depth Departure from Normal - March 12

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