nato-russia relations Отношения Россия-НАТО relations otan russie
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО Relations OTAN Russie. Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A Joint Intelligence School, CFIAR Strasbourg, France. NRC meeting, Lisbon , 20 November 2010. Toward a true strategic and modernised partnership. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
Relations OTAN Russie
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
Relations OTAN Russie
Lieutenant Colonel Patrick MULLER, FRA-A Joint Intelligence School, CFIARStrasbourg, France
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic and Toward a true strategic and modernised partnershipmodernised partnership
Creation of a common space of peace, security Creation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Corner StoneCorner StoneCorner StoneCorner Stone
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Corner Stone
Dialogue and cooperation in the field of security with Russia, founded upon the reciprocal respect of each other’s interests, is one vital parameter to security.
This dialogue has to be honest, but non naïve, and firm, and able to create a both constraining and acceptable structure to Russia and to NATO.
Moreover, only dialogue and cooperation can contribute to bridge the gap between NATO and Russia and particularly help moving beyond cultural differences, especially in political culture.
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NATO-Russia Relations
Outline
1- On the way to a true strategic partnership based on common security interest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?
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-I- On the way to a true strategic partnership
based on common security interest?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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End of the “no business as usual”
Foreign Ministers of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) met in Corfu, Greece, on
27 June 2009
Decision to Decision to cooperate cooperate
on areas of on areas of common common interestsinterests
AfghanistanAfghanistan
CounterterrorismCounterterrorism
Nuclear proliferationNuclear proliferation
PiracyPiracy
Climate changeClimate change
Military cooperationMilitary cooperation
Vidéo 2
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic and Toward a true strategic and modernised partnershipmodernised partnership
Creation of a common space of peace, security Creation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Upgrading the efficiency of the council
NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010November 2010
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NATO-Russia Relations
Since 2002, a New Quality
Joint declaration on NATO-Russia Relations: A New Quality, by Russian and Allied heads of state and government, at their summit meeting in Rome on 28 May 2002.
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NATO-Russia Relations
NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)
The NRC is a mechanism for consultation, consensus-building, cooperation, joint decision, and joint action
In the NRC, Russia and Allies meet as equals and take decisions “at 29”
Principle of Principle of ConsensusConsensus
But no Veto But no Veto for Russiafor Russia
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NATO-Russia Relations
NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL (NRC)
NRC: a solid structure for resuming / promoting the NATO-Russia relations
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
• NATO-Russia Council NATO-Russia Council • Conventional arms control regime in EuropeConventional arms control regime in Europe• STARTSTART• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the goals of the NPTin accordance with the goals of the NPT• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security ChallengesSecurity Challenges• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future framework for cooperationof the future framework for cooperation• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territoryterritory• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics TrainingTraining• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011
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NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund
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Launched Launched on 2 March on 2 March
20112011
Maintenance and Maintenance and repair capacityrepair capacity
To the Afghan To the Afghan Air Force Air Force
helicopter fleethelicopter fleet
Airlift and air power are essential elements of Airlift and air power are essential elements of the Afghan counterinsurgencythe Afghan counterinsurgency
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
• NATO-Russia Council NATO-Russia Council • Conventional arms control regime in EuropeConventional arms control regime in Europe• STARTSTART• To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in To create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the goals of the NPTaccordance with the goals of the NPT• Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security Endorsement of the Joint Review of 21st Century Common Security ChallengesChallenges• Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future Missile defence; to develop a comprehensive Joint Analysis of the future framework for cooperationframework for cooperation• Railway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territoryRailway transit of non-lethal ISAF goods through Russian territory• Expand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics TrainingExpand the scope of the Project on Counter-Narcotics Training• Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Afghan Air Force helicopter fleet : development of an NRC Helicopter Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011Maintenance Trust Fund in 2011• Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative Airspace Counter-terrorism (technology to detect explosives, Cooperative Airspace Initiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)Initiative, information exchange, Active Endeavour)• Counter-piracyCounter-piracy
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NRC MR Work Plan 2012NRC MR Work Plan 2012
- Logistics- Combating Terrorism-Search and Rescue at Sea - Counter Piracy -Theatre Missile Defence - Military Academic Exchanges
- Logistics- Combating Terrorism-Search and Rescue at Sea - Counter Piracy -Theatre Missile Defence - Military Academic Exchanges
NATO-Russia Council Chiefs of Defence approve the Work Plan for 2012, 18th January 2012
NATO-Russia Council Chiefs of Defence approve the Work Plan for 2012, 18th January 2012
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NATO-Russia Relations
Outline
1- On the way to a true strategic partnership based on common security interest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?
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-II- However still profound disagreements
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
““East is East, and West is West, and never the East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet.”twain shall meet.”
Rudyard KiplingRudyard Kipling
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NATO-Russia Relations
CRISIS
The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisis The NATO-Russia crisis is the resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly
between Russia and the US.between Russia and the US.
Profound divergence in Profound divergence in national interestsnational interests
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
« All over these years Russia « All over these years Russia has been put in front of already has been put in front of already accomplished facts: Kosovo, accomplished facts: Kosovo, withdrawal from the antimissile withdrawal from the antimissile treaty, the deployment of treaty, the deployment of antimissile sites in neighbouring antimissile sites in neighbouring countries, or even the endless countries, or even the endless enlargement of NATO »enlargement of NATO »
Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08, Mikhail Gorbatchev, Aug 08, «NovaiaGazeta»«NovaiaGazeta»
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Threat Perceptions …
“NATO enlargement has created more democratic stability on Russia’s western border than at any time since Napoleon”.
Ronald D. AsmusJanuary/February, 2008
“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on our borders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat to the security of our country”.
Vladimir PutinNATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008
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Drawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz KarimDrawing by Niyaz Karim
Missile DefenseMissile Defense
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Georgia’s pivotal role in the global energy market
Analysis of the current crisis with Russia: a conflict of national
interests
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The politically highly charged BTC & SCP pipelines
Analysis of the current crisis with Russia A conflict of national interests
Analysis of the current crisis with Russia A conflict of national interests
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Reasons for the Crisis / conflicting national
interests
Georgia’s pivotal role
in the global energy market
A key element of US Foreign policy
#
Russia wants Central Asia oil and gas to be exported via its own territory
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nation address to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
A new security architecture:A new security architecture:
« European Security Treaty » proposed to « European Security Treaty » proposed to encompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO encompass NATO, OSCE, CSTO
Indivisibility of security Indivisibility of security
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Analysis of the crisis with Russia: a conflict of national
interests
NATO’s / “Western” points of view
versus
Russia’s points of view
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Threat Perceptions …
“NATO enlargement has created more democratic stability on Russia’s western border than at any time since Napoleon”.
Ronald D. AsmusJanuary/February, 2008
“The appearance of a powerful military bloc on our borders will be taken by Russia as a direct threat to the security of our country”.
Vladimir PutinNATO Summit, Bucharest, 2008
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NATO’s / “Western”points of view
Disproportionate use of force
Violation of sovereignty of Georgia
Violation of territorial integrity of Georgia
Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)
Destruction of vital infrastructure
Everything had been planned & calculated for long (“frozen conflict”, Russian citizenship policy)
Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict
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NATO’s / “Western”points of view
Russia is a country, not democratic, that conducts conducts a policy of influence on the countries that were a policy of influence on the countries that were
in its former empire disrespectfully of their in its former empire disrespectfully of their sovereigntysovereignty
General reasons General reasons
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Russia’s points of view
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Russia’s points of view
“Russia wanted to respect the World order, but the Georgian attack…”
“Protection of South Ossetian population”
“Georgia’s irresponsible & criminal regime” (11th Sep 01)
The war was organized by the US Criminal equipment and training of Georgian troops by the
US Georgian attack of August with the consent of the US
Not alternative to recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Concerning the Georgian conflictConcerning the Georgian conflict
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NATO’s use of force without the consent of the UNSC
Disproportionate use of force
Violation of sovereignty of Serbia
Violation of territorial integrity of Serbia
Humanitarian consequences (IDPs)
Destruction of vital infrastructure
Recognition of Kosovo (planned & calculated for long)
Concerning KosovoConcerning Kosovo
Russia’s points of view
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Russia’s points of view
Chaos of international system (international law)
Another conception of the world Another civilization Own original model Orthodoxy
General reasonsGeneral reasons
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NATO-Russia Relations
Outline
1- On the way to a true strategic partnership based on common security interest ?
2- However still profound disagreements
3- Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?
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-III- Which ingredients for successful future
NATO-Russia Relations?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Which ingredients for successful future NATO-Russia Relations?
To understand Russia
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NATO to understand Russia and its identity
The immensity of the Russian territory The Mongol yoke Imperial identity Autocracy , no democratic tradition Orthodoxy, the Third Rome The soviet impact Fear of Encirclement Need for security Need to be treated as the equal of the United
States
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nation address to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
To restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power statusTo restaure Russia’s World Power status
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Russian Minorities Russian Minorities in Former Soviet in Former Soviet
Republic & Republic & Separatist RegionsSeparatist Regions
Stalin's policy of nationalities
The Russian Empire: multiethnic
LE MONDELE MONDE
The role of History
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Samuel Huntington (1927-2008)
“Clash of Civilizations” thesis
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (1996)
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
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Russia’s National Security Strategy until
2020 « Consolidation of efforts of federal executive bodies, State government bodies …
to ensure national security ».
« In a competion for energy resources, it cannot be ruled out that military force could be used for resolving the emerging problems ».
« NATO’s eastward expansion is a crucial factor in the relationship with NATO ».
« Russia is prepared to develop relations with NATO … the depth and essence of which will be determined by NATO’s preparedness for taking into account Russia’s legitimate interests …, respecting international law, …, new humanistic purposes and functions ».
« to build a strategic partnership with the USA based on coinciding interests ».
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NATO, to take into account Russia’s interests?
“The European Union should develop a soft security concept, to replace the hard security concept,
represented by NATO” (Adrian Severin, Euro-parliamentarian, Europe-Russia Economic Forum, May 25-27 2009)
=The new NATO Strategic Concept
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NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010NRC meeting, Lisbon, 20 November 2010
Toward a true strategic and Toward a true strategic and modernised partnershipmodernised partnership
Creation of a a common space of peace, security Creation of a a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic areaand stability in the Euro-Atlantic area
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Russia, to take into account NATO’s
interests?
Toward a new Russia?Toward a new Russia?
Can Russia change?Can Russia change?
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Russian President’s State-of-the-nation address to parliament, 12 Nov 2009
Modernisation of RussiaModernisation of Russia
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Presidential Address of 12 December 2012
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Russia – General features
Largest country in the world
Nuclear power
Wealth of natural and energetic resources
145 millions people (2002 Russian Census)
Population Growth Rate (2006): -0.39%
Births: 1,476,200 (2006) / Deaths: 2,165,700 (2006)
More than 6 millions inhabitants lost since 1991
A multinational country inhabited by representatives of more than a hundred nationalities and ethnic groups.
Imperial structure
Strategic partnership with …?
Future?
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!!
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
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NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО
Problems of communication between “the West” and RussiaProblems of communication between “the West” and Russia
Different cultures and perceptionsDifferent cultures and perceptions
The NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and The NATO-Russia crisis, resultant of the crisis between “Russia and the West”, and more particularly between Russia and the USmore particularly between Russia and the US
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Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?
NATO-Russia Relations Отношения Россия-НАТО