Natural Gas Data Collection and Estimation

Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association

June 6, 2010

Dallas, Texas

James Kendell, Director, Natural Gas Division

2James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Natural Gas Data Collection

Annual Report of Natural and Supplemental Gas Supply and

Disposition

Monthly Natural Gas Marketer SurveyMonthly Report of Natural Gas Purchases and

Deliveries to Consumers

Power PlantOperations

Report

Annual Underground Gas Storage Report

Monthly Underground Gas Storage Report

Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report

Annual Report of the Origin of Natural Gas Liquids Production

Monthly Natural Gas Liquids ReportNatural Gas Processing Survey

Annual Quantity and Value of Natural Gas Production Report

Monthly Natural Gas Production ReportAnnual Survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves

EIA-910EIA-857

EIA-923

EIA-176

FE-746REIA-176

FE-176R EIA-176

EIA-191AEIA-191MEIA-912 EIA-64A

EIA-816EIA-757

EIA-895EIA-914EIA-23

3James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Weekly, Monthly, Annual, and Standby Data Collections

• Weekly: EIA-912

• Monthly: EIA-857, EIA-910, EIA-923, EIA-191M, EIA-914, EIA-816, FE-746R

• Annual: EIA-176, EIA-191A, EIA-64A, EIA-23, EIA-895

• Standby: EIA-757

4James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Types of Data Protection

• CIPSEA: EIA-910, EIA-914, EIA-912

• Protected: EIA-857, EIA-923, FE-746R, EIA-191M, EIA-816, EIA-64A, EIA-23, EIA-757

• Public: EIA-176, EIA-191A, EIA-895

5James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Oklahoma Natural Gas Balance, 2008(Billion Cubic Feet)

1,808 Dry Production

23 Net Storage

670 Consumption

540 Interstate Receipts

1,622 Interstate Deliveries

Source: Natural Gas Annual

6James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Annual Oklahoma Marketed Natural Gas Production, 1967-2009

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

24001

96

7

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

0

Source: Energy Information Administration

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et

7James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Monthly Oklahoma Marketed Natural Gas Production, 2000-2010

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180Ja

n-0

0

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

EIA-895 EIA-914

0

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et

Source: Energy Information Administration

8James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Form EIA-914 Operations

• History: Testing, 2005; Official, 2007

• Timeliness: 60 days after the end of the month

• Management: Dallas, Texas

• Coverage: 5 States, Other States, and Gulf of Mexico

• Publications: Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report, Natural Gas

Monthly

9James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Form EIA-914

10James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

• Month following its first publication

• Significant resubmissions

• Natural Gas Annual

• Natural Gas Annual the following year

Monthly Natural Gas Production Data Revisions

11James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

EIA-914 Sampling and Estimation

12James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

EIA-914 Reported Current EIA-914 EstimateState Data + 895 HPDI ReportedLippman Consulting BENTEK

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et

pe

r D

ay

0

Lower 48 States Comparison of 914 with Other Data Sources, 2007-2010

Sources: EIA-914 Survey, EIA-895A Survey, HPDI, BENTEK Energy, Lippman Consulting

13James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Oklahoma Comparison with Other Data Sources,2007-2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

EIA-914 Reported Current EIA-914 EstimateState Reported HPDI ReportedLippman Consulting

Sources: EIA-914 Survey, HPDI, the State of Oklahoma, Lippman Consulting

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fe

et

pe

r D

ay

14James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Texas Comparison with Other Data Sources, 2007-2010

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24J

an

-07

Ap

r-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Oc

t-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Oc

t-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

Ja

n-1

0Bil

lio

n c

ub

ic f

ee

t p

er

da

y

EIA-914 Reported Current EIA-914 EstimateState Reported HPDI ReportedLippman Consulting

0

Sources: EIA-914 Survey, HPDISources: EIA-914 Survey, HPDI, the State of Texas, Lippman Consulting

15James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Lower 48 Comparison of Old and New Method, 2009-2010

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

Jan

-09

Feb

-09

Mar-

09

Ap

r-09

May-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9

Sep

-09

Oct-

09

No

v-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Bil

lio

n C

ub

ic F

ee

t p

er

Da

y

EIA-914 Reported Previous EstimateState Data + 895 Simple Ratio Estimate

Sources: EIA-914 Survey, EIA-895A Survey

Incomplete Data

0

16James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Oklahoma Comparison of Old and New Method,2009-2010

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8Ja

n-0

9

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Ap

r-09

May

-09

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

No

v-09

Dec

-09

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Bil

lio

n C

ub

ic F

eet

per

Day

EIA-914 Reported Previous Estimate

HPDI Reported Simple Ratio Estimate

Sources: EIA-914 Survey, HPDI

Incomplete Data

0

17James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Possible Future EIA-914 Plans

• Rename EIA-914 as “Monthly Natural Gas and Crude Oil

Production Report”

• Add crude oil and lease condensate to the form

• Add more States and the Federal Offshore Pacific

18James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Natural Gas Supply and Consumption,2005-2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64.15

64.43

62.57

DailyBcf

22.84

23.412011

23.522010

TotalTcf

Consumption

2009

Production

Net Imports

Bil

lio

n C

ub

ic F

eet

per

Day

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2010

Projection

19James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices,2009-2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011

Historical spot priceSTEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

dollars per million btu

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2010; Reuters News Service; and CME Group

Do

llars

per

mill

ion

Btu

20James M. Kendell, Dallas, Texas, June 6, 2010

James M. Kendell

Energy Information Administration

James.Kendell@eia.doe.gov

Recurring Publications:Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly

Annual Energy Outlook 2010, May 2010

Natural Gas Year-in-Review, April 2009

Natural Gas Annual 2008, March 2010

Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report, monthly

U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 2008, October 2009

Special Reports:Gulf of Mexico Fact Sheet,, May 2010

New Methodology For Natural Gas Production Estimates, April 2010

Expansion of the U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network: Additions in 2008 and Projects through 2011, September 2009

Impact of the 2008 Hurricane Season on the Natural Gas Industry, January 2009

For Further Information