natural gas infrastructure in brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 estimatesbyepe(epe, 2019 )withdata...

16
Grand Hyatt Rio de Janeiro • Rio de Janeiro, Brazil • 3-4 March 2020 Gabriel Costa – Natural Gas team Brazilian Energy Research Office (EPE) Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil Existing Facilities and Projects Under Study

Upload: others

Post on 20-Mar-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

G r a n d H y a t t R i o d e J a n e i r o • R i o d e J a n e i r o , B r a z i l • 3 - 4 M a r c h 2 0 2 0

Gabriel Costa – Natural Gas team

Brazilian Energy Research Office (EPE)

Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil Existing Facilities and Projects Under Study

Page 2: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Brazilian Gas Sectorand New Gas Market

2

Page 3: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

The [amplified] natural gas chain in Brazil

3

OutflowExploration

Processing Transmission Distribution

Outflow Pipeline

Onshore

Offshore

Natural Gas Processing

Plant

Transmission Pipeline

Local Distribution Companies

LNG terminals

LNG

UGS

Non-thermelectricdemand

Thermal Power plant

Complementarity

Renewable Energy Sources

Biogas,Bio-methane

Natural Gas Liquids(LPG, C5+, ethane, propane)

Page 4: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

The New Gas Market Programme

4

Pillars:• To promote competition• To harmonize federal and states regulations• To reduce tax barriers• To integrate gas industry to power and industrial sectors

Objective: formation of an open, dynamic and competitive natural gas market in Brazil

Participants: MME, Ministry of Economy, Casa Civil, EPE, ANP and CADE

Page 5: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Relation with Other Initiatives

5

Onshore Gas

Page 6: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Gathering, Transmission and Distribution PipelinesProcessing Plants, LNG Terminals

6

187 delivery stations (citygates)

33 compression stations

14 processing plants(96 million m3/d)

4 LNG regasification terminals(61 million m3/d with Sergipe LNG Terminal)

transmission pipelines9.409 km

Main figures about natural gas infrastructure in Brazil

Available atgisepe.epe.gov.br/WebMapEPE/

Page 7: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Ten-Year Gas Production Outlook

7

59

13835

79

14

29

112

253

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Natural Gas ProductionMillion m³ per day

7.7% p.a.

7.9% p.a.

Source: EPE

Net Production Injection

E&P Consumption Burn and Losses

Total Production

Main drivers for natural gas production increase

• Pre-Salt: Campos and Santos Basins

• Post-Salt: Sergipe-Alagoas Basin

• Onshore: Recôncavoand Solimões Basins

Page 8: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Projects Under Study

8

Page 9: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

São Luís

CE

Ten-Year Investments Outlook in Gas Infrastructure

9

Future Offshore Pipelines

Indicative Offshore Pipelines

(without definitive location)

Source: EPE

Classification

FutureIndicative

(business as usual)Indicative

(New Gas Market)

Projects R$ bn. Projects R$ bn. Projects R$ bn.

Offshore Pipelines1

2 6.10 1 3.13 10 13.65

Transmission Pipelines1

1 0.13 0 - 11 17.06

LNG Regasification Terminals2

3 1.20 3 1.20 2 0.80

Processing Plants3

2 2.69 1 3.50 4 11.30

TOTAL 8 10.12 5 7.83 27 42.81

Notes:1 Estimates by EPE (EPE, 2019) with data-base 2019 and uncertainty of -50% to +100% (AACE-18R-97);offshore pipelines costs does not include compression and risers (to be provided by the FPSO owner).2 Estimates by EPE (EPE, 2019) with data-base 2019 and uncertainty of -50% to +100% (AACE-18R-97).3 Estimates by EPE (EPE, 2018) with data-base 2019 and uncertainty of -50% to +100% (AACE-18R-97).

Future Processing Plants

Indicative Processing Plants

(without definitive location)

Future LNG Terminals

Indicative LNG Terminals

(without definitive location)

Future Transmission Pipelines

Indicative Transmission Pipelines

(without definitive location)

Page 10: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Indicative Gas Transmission Pipelines Plan - PIG

10

D Porto Sergipe - Catu Pilar/SE Pipeline

E Porto Central - GASCAV/ES Pipeline

F Porto do Açu - GASCAV/ES Pipeline

G Porto de Itaguaí - GASCAR/RJ Pipeline

H Cubatão/SP - GASAN/SP Pipeline

I Terminal Gás Sul/SC – GASBOL Pipeline

J Terminal Imbituba/SC – GASBOL Pipeline

K Mina Guaíba/RS - Triunfo/RS PipelineK

J

IH

GF

E

D

AConstruction of Brasil Central Pipeline(São Carlos/SP - Brasília/DF)

BDuplication of GASBOL from Siderópolis/SC to Canoas/RS (or substitution and expansion of Compression Stations)

CConstruction of the 2nd section of Uruguaiana/RS -Porto Alegre/RS Pipeline

A

C B

Page 11: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Indicative Processing Plants and Gas Pipelines Plan - PIPE

11

SEAL

BS

BC

ES

Santos and Campos Basins (pre-salt)

4a Route 4a: Bacia de Santos – Cubatão/SP

4b Route 4b: Bacia de Santos – Porto de Itaguaí/RJ

5a Route 5a: Bacia de Campos – Porto do Açu/RJ

5b Route 5b: Bacia de Campos – TEPOR/RJ

6a Route 6a: Bacia de Campos – Porto Central/ES

6b Route 6b: Bacia de Campos – Porto do Açu/RJ

5c Route 5c: Bacia de Campos – Porto de Itaguaí/RJ

Espírito Santo-Mucuri Basin (post-salt)

A Alternative A: Bacia ES-Mucuri – Porto Imetame/ES

B Alternative B: Bacia ES-Mucuri – UPGN Cacimbas/ES

Sergipe-Alagoas Basin (post-salt)

A Alternative A: Bacia SEAL – UPGN Atalaia/SE

B Alternative B: Bacia SEAL – Porto de Sergipe/SE

BC

Page 12: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Indicative LNG Regasification Terminals Plan

12

Page 13: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Final Remarks

13

Page 14: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Changes in Brazilian Gas Sector

14

New agents in many steps of the value chain1 new LNG terminal + 2 LNG terminals and 1 Processing plant under construction

Increase in the national oil and gas supplyHigher volumes offshore, higher number of projects onshore

Investments, employment, taxes (federal, states, municipalities)

Thousand of employees in construction, specialized workers in operation

Complementarity with renewables

Thermal power plants for seasonality, intermittency and backup

Page 15: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Summary of Projects Under Study

15

23 LNG regasification terminal projects (1 already built in Sergipe!)Can bring new supply with different flexibility levels

5 offshore pipelines projects with processing plants (11 options)Can bring new volumes of gas and natural gas liquids to the market

11 transmission pipelines projects

Can increase the supply to integrated network and attend new regions

The projects were analyzed in an indicative fashion

Decisions are up to the investors; uncertainties of -50% to +100%

Page 16: Natural Gas Infrastructure in Brazil · 2020. 12. 24. · 2 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE, 2019 )withdata -base anduncertaintyof 50 %to+100 (AACE 18R 97 . 3 EstimatesbyEPE(EPE,2018 )withdata

© G l o b a l O f f s h o r e B r a z i l S u m m i t a n d G u l f Q u e s t L L C

Thank you!

Read our studies at www.epe.gov.brFollow the New Gas Market at www.mme.gov.br

16